maquiladora
Member
Probably 90% perfect. Will be fun to revisit this post in June.
Bloomberg Rumor: Xbox 720 unveiling at E3 2013, launching in the same year
- Thread starter gofreak
- Start date
Probably 90% perfect. Will be fun to revisit this post in June.
This seems pretty accurate although the WiiU i could see launching between Sept-Nov.
No doubt. It's just that when push comes to shove, the ability to play with friends on live or psn will probably play a secondary role when it comes to purchases of new consoles. If the software is desirable, they'll buy a new console and think of everything else after the fact. Wii U or PS4 or Xbox3 or whatever can all succeed for different reasons.
A lot of the predictions and analysis of platform viability on gaf often comes across as people overthinking the topic. If the software is desirable for whatever reason (and the number of reasons are vast), people will buy [insert product]. Graphics, networks, etc. all play a part in that but are very rarely the entire picture.
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't think it's too overthought.
I do agree with the basic idea that software moves hardware.
I simply consider the networks that Microsoft, and to a lesser extent Sony, have now created to be as equivalent in value to any killer app software exclusive. Probably more so, in fact.
And I don't think the importance of social conformity is being overstated. People buy what their friends buy - it's one of the reasons, I imagine, that even at a higher ASP with most of the same software the 360 still sells more than the PS3 every NPD.
The thing is, network preferences can change. It takes awhile, but it does happen. You don't see people on friendster anymore, and when was the last time anyone talked about myspace? I do believe though that if nintendo's future network isn't serviceable, they're going to have a real tough road ahead of them, but if wii u hits it big, people will gladly switch over as the console itself becomes increasingly popular. What I'm saying is people aren't going to pass on it just because it doesn't have live or psn. It's not about what's not available, but rather the exact opposite.
JimiNutz
Banned
Even if they dont announce a new Xbox what is the chance that they'll partner up with Epic and show a demo of a future game/tech demo running on UE4?
It could be right at the end of their presentation and be sneak peak at upcoming technology and games of the future. Make a little sense for MS to do this since they are invested slightly in PC gaming as well...
That way they do slightly counter Wii U (especially if Wii U can't run EU4 and the footage completely blows away any Wii U game footage).
It could be a subtle way of saying "this tech is coming soon" without actually unveiling a new console (we all know its coming in 2013). Plus PC gaming gets some love which benefits MS as well.
It could be right at the end of their presentation and be sneak peak at upcoming technology and games of the future. Make a little sense for MS to do this since they are invested slightly in PC gaming as well...
That way they do slightly counter Wii U (especially if Wii U can't run EU4 and the footage completely blows away any Wii U game footage).
It could be a subtle way of saying "this tech is coming soon" without actually unveiling a new console (we all know its coming in 2013). Plus PC gaming gets some love which benefits MS as well.
Nintendo wants to give its fans one last great E3 and Launch before the world as we know it ends. Pretty considerate.. very epicurean: "eat, drink, be merry - and take some time off of work for E3 - for in December ye shall die!"
Plus.. who would've guessed that Nintendo would have the most powerful console at the end? Ha!
I agree with some of your points but I think we may all be over looking one crucial possibility, backwards compatibility. Suppose PS4 or 720 nail backwards compatibility like the iTunes model? We haven't had these user accounts for multiple generations yet so it's easy to overlook it but just like people have invested a lot into their iTunes account and would rather buy the next idevice to keep their purchases the same could hold true for gaming hardware now. You bring up the MySpace exodus but I didn't have 250 bucks worth of digital purchases tied to my MySpace account but I buy shit on xbla all the time. When you add that to my profile and friends list that's reason enough for a person to strongly consider "upgrading" instead of "starting over". I'm not saying what will or won't happen, I'm just throwing an idea out.
RAM chips will double in 2013
Thunder Monkey
Banned
That they will.
I'd still expect it to be ripe for console tech primarily 2014 and after though.
Well honestly that depends on how much they are budgeting for them. If they are willing to spend the billions it took to get the 360 and PS3 to market we very well could get powerhouse systems. I just don't honestly see the need. Those two systems had very slow adoption and the profit made is minuscule compared to the profit made under the Wii model.
It just seems a dumb way to play the game when something with the power of a wrist watch can corner the market for more than half of a generation and generate billions in profit.
I'm not arguing against technical advancement. I'm just arguing for a more measured approach in the industry at large. I don't want to see this industry comprised solely of Call of Duty, Madden, and Mario because budgets by necessity became so large as to be unsustainable.
Proelite
Member
Source?
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Late 2013 was the last time frame I'd seen.
I have a god daughter that wasn't even born yet when 360 launched. She's fucking SIX now. Diapers, bottles, crawling, walking, learning to talk, day care, kindergarten, reading and writing now and not only is the 360 still around with no successor in plain sight, it's only dropped what $100 since launch? Insanity.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
All my Friendster friends moved to Myspace who then moved to Facebook. Moral of the post, people go where their friends are.
Yup.
shinra-bansho
Member
The problem is the "Wii model" isn't really a model per se. It's not something you can just apply and gain success. It went beyond pricing competitively. The GameCube and XBOX were priced relatively competitively too, I believe.
The Wii took off in everyone's astonishment because it was disruptive. It charted a blue ocean.
There is no guarantee that the Upad for example will follow suit, for one thing, especially when the ocean is red with iPads. While Sony don't have anything we know of to serve as suitable hook. Microsoft, however, may use Kinect, but they somewhat played that hand this generation already.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I understand that, but we've seen at separate times in this industry that within a single generation divergent paths begin to emerge that are key to success in the next cycle. Last cycle in the Japanese industry for example we saw a general push in the direction of handhelds, codified in a way by the overwhelming success of the DS and PSP markets in comparison to their console counterparts.
In the mid point of last gen on the console there was a split push. The hardcore oriented market has been there pushing tech advancement from the start. They got a huge push this past generation. Regardless that you could get a powerful PC with double and sometimes close to triple the RAM of either system, they were powerful.
That other was in alternate ways to play. Sony was actually key in showing that the market existed with the EyeToy. Nintendo was just the smart one to push for them outright.
At the tail end of this generation, we come to a fairly linear path. The push for more will always be there. Half the time they don't even realize they're getting a good deal until it's exploited to its full potential. And then there's the full blown necessity to control the already large costs of development.
It's true that consoles must find a way to stand out as gaming platforms. There are literally dozens of other ways to play games. I just disagree with the average gamer that the difference has to be on the basis of visual. I can guarantee if consoles try to fight that battle they will lose, and spectacularly.
Saying that, they don't have to cede the push for more. But console cases are a limiting factor in how hot these things can run. Microsoft dealt for half a generation with the money draining potential of a design flaw.
The one point I will cede myself. I think I'm beginning to agree that the console industry is about as much about "How connected am I?" as it is with almost anything. The old school gamer in me holds out hope that it is still "What am I playing?" that controls it, but occasionally you must give ground.
Going to be interesting.
Nintendo either spec up the Wii U and take a loss on the first year, but when the Loop comes out, its still able to compete in the minds of gamers.
Or do a Wii (not that level, but you get what I mean, I'm sure) sell it cheap and get massive first year sales, hoping the install base will be big enough for it to survive when the Loop / PS4 is about.
Nintendo either spec up the Wii U and take a loss on the first year, but when the Loop comes out, its still able to compete in the minds of gamers.
Or do a Wii (not that level, but you get what I mean, I'm sure) sell it cheap and get massive first year sales, hoping the install base will be big enough for it to survive when the Loop / PS4 is about.
MightyHedgehog
Member
Well, the problem in your comparison is that you're talking about free platform-agnostic services and networks (which are not required to use for any game software and have competitors) on those platforms which it is deployed to. A console network service that is part and parcel to the platform is not even close to being the same, in terms of dependencies and required use. You then have to weigh issue of where the software you want is made available, and there should be plenty of exclusivity action next-gen. Your friends list also obviously influences these decisions greatly.
Yes, I agree on all accounts with what you're saying. But in the context of the thread, I'm addressing how leaving the wii u uncontested on the market for too long could potentially be risky for MS. Of course there are a ton of variables at play here. What exclusives will be on Wii U? How superior will the hardware be to the current gen? What will the eventual gap be between wii u and xbox 3? Will nintendo network be up to snuff? Will xbox 3 be able to retain the casual market with kinect? etc. etc. The point is, if the software is there for Wii U that's not there for PS360 or is clearly more desirable, it could drive people to adopt the new console. There's also the matter of the casual market. If the casual market explodes on wii u, it could bring along with it tons of hardcore gamers who are tied directly to their family's gaming system.
Friends lists can change, and at a certain point, the desire for a new gadget will outweigh the ties to old technology. In fact, I'd argue that can be quite easy depending on what you're trying to replace. If wii u makes 360 look like the dinosaur it is, it wont be a matter of deciding whether or not gamers should abandon their friends list, it'll be about getting on board with the new hotness.
That said, Xbox3/PS4 could always come around and dominate when they hit the market if those products are compelling enough. Who is to say they wont? That's the joy of competition! From my point of view though, all the talk about Wii U not being a threat is way too reminiscent of 2006.
amstradcpc
Member
I see you are a chess player...
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I said this in the WiiU spec thread.
If they view them as a potential threat they'll announce something this year. If they view them as a big threat they'll announce, show, and have a fuzzy launch window.
edit: And if they don't view it as a threat at all they will announce nothing. But that would be a gambit.
It's probably selling better now than it was when she was born.
That blinged-out MySpace page that someone will NEVER touch again, that they SLAVED over for hours, would have been difficult to let go of. Gamertag scores are the same way, as are friends lists. These things are directly comparable, and despite all being used by the same device, they are solitary web platforms, where you start from square one again, with an entirely different feature set that doesn't always have a direct mirror image on the newer platform you migrate to (see: MySpace HTML personalizations). Not quite as "platform-agnostic" as you make it out to be.
Also, buying a new platform doesn't cause your gamer tag or the console you used it on to explode.
yep. Definitely not a good idea to give Nintendo too much time boasting the best specs (I know where my 3rd party games will go to this winter ;-) and Steam/Origin probably erodes their hardcore base.
Can a year give MS that much more options in terms of how powerfull its next-gen outing can be?
Plus most launch games will certainly use UE 3.5 and should be ready for launch.
I think UE4.0 will be wave 2.
AdventureRacing
Member
How long has facebook been on top though? It doesn't look like stopping anytime soon either. I don't think any of the services offered on consoles have come close to that level but once entrenched it can be hard to get people to switch over.
It might give them time for a slight variation but that would depend on what target their are aiming for in the first place. What it might also do is give them a chance to expand their 3rd Party Launch offerings. Based upon how Nintendo do, MS might have a better chance to convince more 3rd parties to jump in.
GPU, CPU and RAM.
CPU speeds are already pretty awesome, so the actual clock speed does not need to be massive or cutting edge. The GPU really needs most of the budget built around it.
From a technology standpoint, if MS doesn't launch in 12 then 14 seems like a better year than 13. The memory improvements aren't going to be solid enough to bet a console launch.
From a commercial strategy standpoint, MS should launch this year. Kinect bought them 2 years while making a ton of money. The incoming price drops on 360 means there should be little to no loss in 360 sales while the high end is wide open.
snoopeasystreet
Member
I bet microsofts moustache twirl at the end of the conference is bring epic out to show off UE4 and then say something like "we look forward to showing you more next year".
A price drop on the 360 would keep it viable for a few more years and that would soften the initial 720 losses.
late last night I posted what I thought was an interesting scenario into the mix, further up the page. Nobody commented on it lol. I'm starting to think that all of my drunk posting over the past 6 years has me on everyone's ignore list!
Yeah, those aren't US dates
Nov 20, 2012 - Wii U
Nov 12, 2013 - Xbox 'Durango'
And for Sony, I'm not sure. If they can make it out 2013, then I see PS4 releasing close to Xbox. I don't see MS or Sony releasing early in a year, not in the States at least... and i don't know if Sony is in a position to not give the next Xbox a year head start.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
There is no realistic scenario where Sony gives Nintendo two Christmas' uninterrupted in Japan, especially with the Vita being trounced by the 3DS over there. PS3 will launch fall 2013 as well.
NemesisPrime
Banned
I think PS4 will launch before the new 360 TBH.
2GB of RAM on PS3 in 2006? I agree it would have been wonderfully powerful, but... wasn't $600 *enough*?
...continue to build for the single fixed hardware configuration that is a major point of developing for consoles?
And yet, wasn't that a fundamental argument of his in favour of his continual WiiHD predictions?
Keep believing in that...
The more I read our threads, the less I think MS and Sony should release in 2013.
Those two will need some BIG hits if they want to kickstart next-gen and I don't think 3rd parties will have their big IP up and running on next-gen engines 20 months from now.
Just as I don't think 1st parties will have revolutionnary experiences to expose.
I'd rather see devs go experimental in 2013 and try and bring out games made on a budget but yet done so efficiently they look, feel and play AAA but with new stories, maybe try things things as regards to marketing and how they are priced.
I'm a big supporter of episodic content, and a steady flow of likeable IPs on PS360 would keep me playing on those all through 2013.
A 6-8 months games drought can be quenched with MP stuff.
And MS/Sony know hardcores will buy WiiUs anyway, so why try and mask it's where the enthousiasm is gonna go for a time.
Maybe it's in the best interest of the industry as a whole to allow Nintendo to have this E3 to themselves in terms of the console space. Didn't the Wii make up a large part of the industry's growth this past generation? Wouldn't it shrink without them? Nintendo tends to set a lot of trends as well. I don't see how it could be a good thing to try and undercut Nintendo when Sony and Microsoft, if indirectly, benefit from them doing well.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
What does it matter if Sony lets them have a two year headstart? There's no rules written in stone where generations can't be disjointed. If Sony released PS4 this year to start the new gen then PS5 in 2013, would that signal the start of another new gen? Of course not.
It crosses my mind that if all the console manufacturers were to quietly agree amongst themselves to release new systems in a staggered fashion : Wii U in 2012, 720 in 2014, PS4 in 2016, Wii U 2 in 2018 - that'd go a long way to countering the perception that the iPad will someday overtake them in terms of power by having 'the console industry' match its hardware cycle while the individual manufacturers stick with what the normal 6-ish year cycles they're comfortable with.
Of course, going out of your way to counter that is really really dumb. But then, so are the arguments it'd be countering!
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