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Bloomberg via Takashi Mochizuki — Nintendo planning to ship over 10 million Switch 2 units next fisical year

Thick Thighs Save Lives

Thick Thighs Save Lives

NeoGAF's Physical Games Advocate Extraordinaire


Someone from the purple forum did a a forecast based on what data a gaffer/install base user (Luminoth) shared to pinpoint when the Switch 2 is most likely to launch.
Using this estimate of 10 million consoles produced for the fiscal year, we could work out the possible release date.

Indeed i just checked the data from Luminoth, on installbase, on the shipped consoles per Q:

in the FY 2017/2018 Nintendo shipped:
  • 7,3 Million consoles in the third quarter(Oct-Dec)
  • 2.9 Million consoles in the fourth quarter(Jan-march)
That would be 10.2 million consoles total.
That is actually the minimum quantity of consoles shipped by Nintendo for the Switch for Q3 and and Q4 in a fiscal year.

Of course, the shipment numbers won't really reflect the shipments in 2017/2018, they will probably be a bit more skewed towards Q4 due to the logistics involved in launching a new product.
So something like:
- 6 million for Q3
- 4 million for Q4

When Switch launched in March 2017, Nintendo shipped 2.7 million consoles in the first month of march alone (data from Luminoth).
That would leave 1.5 million consoles to ship in November and December respectively, to reach ca. 6 million consoles shipped, which is doable.

This would put the launch date in October.
Click to expand...
 
Fess

Fess

Member
Zuzu said:
It’s frustrating not having an OLED version at launch
Click to expand...
Extremely. I literally just discovered OLED months ago when buying the Zelda TOTK Switch OLED. Then Steam Deck OLED a bit later. I haven’t had an OLED TV or computer monitor or phone, been sitting on LCD screens all this time. I don’t want to go back. It’s completely killing my hype for the system now. 😕
 
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Hohenheim

Hohenheim

Member
This OLED moaning is a bit much.
I don't understand how lack of OLED is "killing the hype" for this thing. When I upgraded from the OG Switch to the OLED version that was nice, but it didn't make a huge difference in the actual enjoyment of the games. When this thing launches with some (hopefully)killer games, those games will not be that different because of the screen not being OLED.
It's strange how people are fine with Nintendo hardware struggling to get 30fps, but as long as the colours pop a bit more, all is fine..

And don't people use this with a TV most of the time anyways?
I could't imagine playing a game like Metroid Prime in handheld mode.

And when the upgraded version comes along in a few years, just sell your machine And upgrade when the better one is out there.

Glad to see that the machine will hopefully be easily available at launch. Really looking forward to new Nintendo hardware! Especially if Prime 4 is an actual launch title (one can only hope)
 
NeoIkaruGAF

NeoIkaruGAF

Gold Member
Hohenheim said:
This OLED moaning is a bit much.
I don't understand how lack of OLED is "killing the hype" for this thing. When I upgraded from the OG Switch to the OLED version that was nice, but it didn't make a huge difference in the actual enjoyment of the games. When this thing launches with some (hopefully)killer games, those games will not be that different because of the screen not being OLED.
It's strange how people are fine with Nintendo hardware struggling to get 30fps, but as long as the colours pop a bit more, all is fine..
Click to expand...
thankyou.gif

The nature of the screen should be the very last concern regarding hardware.
Give me good ergonomics, non-drifting sticks, a dock that doesn’t scratch the system’s screen, a better pointer system to play Wii-like games, a pro controller with a Dpad that’s worthy of the NES’s. Give me good framerate and resolution. Then we can talk about OLED.



Robb said:
Launch Switch 2 with Mario Kart 9, alongside bundles for the holidays, and watch it fly off the shelves.
Click to expand...
They’ve just finished releasing the DLC for MK8.
Hard to believe they can already have a MK9 ready.
If there’s BC, MK8 can carry the series for one more year before a new game.
 
BlackTron

BlackTron

Member
I'd be a bit more concerned about the screen if I didn't have the option to plug it into any screen I want. Also if it would still use black frame insertion I don't want it anyway.
 
O

Ozriel

M$FT
Hohenheim said:
This OLED moaning is a bit much.
I don't understand how lack of OLED is "killing the hype" for this thing. When I upgraded from the OG Switch to the OLED version that was nice, but it didn't make a huge difference in the actual enjoyment of the games. When this thing launches with some (hopefully)killer games, those games will not be that different because of the screen not being OLED.
It's strange how people are fine with Nintendo hardware struggling to get 30fps, but as long as the colours pop a bit more, all is fine..

And don't people use this with a TV most of the time anyways?
I could't imagine playing a game like Metroid Prime in handheld mode.

And when the upgraded version comes along in a few years, just sell your machine And upgrade when the better one is out there.

Glad to see that the machine will hopefully be easily available at launch. Really looking forward to new Nintendo hardware! Especially if Prime 4 is an actual launch title (one can only hope)
Click to expand...

Yeah. Lots of really weird posts pretending like there aren’t great LCD displays. The vast majority of console and PC gamers aren’t on OLED. And they’re perfectly fine.
 
Robb

Robb

Gold Member
NeoIkaruGAF said:
They’ve just finished releasing the DLC for MK8.
Hard to believe they can already have a MK9 ready.
If there’s BC, MK8 can carry the series for one more year before a new game.
Click to expand...
Pretty much 95% of the DLC are courses from the mobile game though, that can’t have taken much time, or people, to make.

I might be way off but I’m thinking they’re looking at how Mario Kart 8: Deluxe launched a month post the original Switch and have kept selling throughout the entire generation. I think they’re going to want to get Mario Kart 9 out the door ASAP for that very reason.

I would not be surprised if they have an almost complete version of it as we speak.
 
Kenpachii

Kenpachii

Member
LCD is fine and with nintendo it's all about games anyway instead of tech.

The question is more going to be what games are they going to push it.

From the best selling switch list the top 5 looks like this

1) Mario kart 8 deluxe
2) Animal crossing
3) super smash brothers
4) zelda breath of the wild
5) mario odyssey

I would say either a port of mario kart 8 is going to release or mario kart 9 is going to release with it
A new animal crossing most likely or a port
super smash brother a new version could be possible i guess
zelda won't happen
Mario odyssey 2.

Ports won't sell the switch 2, so maybe they don't want to alienate original switch owners and just launch it with odyssey 2 and a few ports and focus heavily on 3rd party's.
 
O

Ozzie666

Member
Basically renting a launch LCD version until the OLED trade in up grade is available. Doing my part like the switch to improve sales numbers.
 
killatopak

killatopak

Member
I have to see a game to make me buy it on release. I just don’t see them releasing exclusive games that aren’t gonna release on Switch 1 as well.
 
C

CityHunter1981

Member
Somehow I can’t imagine that it will be that much successful. Nearly all children who play games have a Switch by now and it will be a hard sell to their parents why they need a new one.

Sure adults will buy it, especially since I am pretty sure a new 3D Mario and Metroid prime 4 will be launch titles, but for parents who are not so familiar with games will have trouble to understand it.
 
Kenpachii

Kenpachii

Member
CityHunter1981 said:
Somehow I can’t imagine that it will be that much successful. Nearly all children who play games have a Switch by now and it will be a hard sell to their parents why they need a new one.

Sure adults will buy it, especially since I am pretty sure a new 3D Mario and Metroid prime 4 will be launch titles, but for parents who are not so familiar with games will have trouble to understand it.
Click to expand...

The next game isn't playable on the old device so the new device is what kid wants because of the games.

That's how nintendo has always opperated. I am also sure that most people buying nintendo handhelds are 30+ year olds even if its for the kids and they in general know whats up i would say.
 
C

CityHunter1981

Member
Kenpachii said:
The next game isn't playable on the old device so the new device is what kid wants because of the games.

That's how nintendo has always opperated. I am also sure that most people buying nintendo handhelds are 30+ year olds even if its for the kids and they in general know whats up i would say.
Click to expand...
Switch was so successful since it was something really new (combining a home console and portable). Switch 2 will be the same with a better hardware. Isn’t that the same thing which happens to Wii U? Better hardware does not sell a console alone, okay with Wii U we also got a stupid name, which sounded like an addon, but we still don’t know of Switch 2 will have a better name.
 
Kenpachii

Kenpachii

Member
CityHunter1981 said:
Switch was so successful since it was something really new (combining a home console and portable). Switch 2 will be the same with a better hardware. Isn’t that the same thing which happens to Wii U? Better hardware does not sell a console alone, okay with Wii U we also got a stupid name, which sounded like an addon, but we still don’t know of Switch 2 will have a better name.
Click to expand...

Nothing new about the switch, nintendo had handhelds way before. It sold well because they slammed the console market and the handheld market into one product where u can get all the games, u can probably play most 3rd party games that consoles have in handheld solution without having to result to stuff like a steam deck which is far to difficult for most people.

The big thing is the games will make or break the device at the end of the day specially for early buyers.

I wouldn't compare the wii-u towards the switch 2, because wii-u basically was a running joke from day one, to expensive, looked like shit, expensive to build for, no interesting games, and a meme for 3rd party developers, and didn't had the handheld market fused with it.
 
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Duchess

Duchess

Member
I'm betting it shows up in November. That would give them about 6 months to shift those 10 million. Time enough, I think?
 
Celcius

Celcius

°Temp. member
An October launch works for me. I played the oled switch only handheld but with an lcd screen this will be docked only.

Also, the original switch was revealed October 2016 and released 6 months later in April 2017. If switch 2 launches October this year then they’ll most likely reveal it 6 months earlier, in April, right?
 
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Banjo64

Banjo64

cumsessed
Robb said:
Pretty much 95% of the DLC are courses from the mobile game though, that can’t have taken much time, or people, to make.

I might be way off but I’m thinking they’re looking at how Mario Kart 8: Deluxe launched a month post the original Switch and have kept selling throughout the entire generation. I think they’re going to want to get Mario Kart 9 out the door ASAP for that very reason.

I would not be surprised if they have an almost complete version of it as we speak.
Click to expand...
I agree. I also think we’re going to get the next mainline 3D Mario within 3 months of launch, possibly on launch day.
 
CS Lurker

CS Lurker

Member
If they have better motion controls (maybe using a camera on the tablet to track the controller like on the first oculus rift) and they update Splatoon to use it, I'm day one for this thing. If it's just the same experience from Switch (noticeable latency + gyro/acc drift every 10 seconds) I'll pass. I can wait 4 years to get a revision with better screen and more battery life, or I'll just emulate it.
 
K2D

K2D

Banned
I'll wait for an oled version and a new Zelda game, but I'm hyped on behalf of die hard Nintendo fans.
 
Fake

Fake

Member
IMO is a easy goal. Just mix their next upgrade hardware with some of the best linage software ever.

With makes me wonder, how look will be Batman AK on the Switch PRO or DX if suppose they had a similar specs or close to a base PS4 + DLSS?
 
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