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[keep]

Not really, we could just drop tariffs on items we're struggling with supply of and advertise that we're buying. We literally can selectively import wtf we like with no tariffs if we want when outside the EU.

As big and scary the export numbers sound its estimated that less than 10% of UK business exports, and even less of those to the EU. Even with tariffs we would still export to the EU and whilst supply and demand laws would suggest the higher prices caused by tariffs would slow demand, there's no guarantee we actually would have much higher prices if we manage imports well and don't slap punitive tariffs on everything.

Also the Eu has free trade agreements with other countries who have totally different market regulations, there's no reason other than spite why a trade agreement cannot be struck with them when we currently have regulation parity.

Coffee for instance, beans have no tariff applied by the EU but HUGE tariffs applied if they are roasted. We are all paying through the nose for roasting whilst keeping a foot on the head of coffee growers in countries that could really do with being able to expand their industries.

You think Britain on its own is as attractive a proposition to other countries as the EU so they would replicate the same agreements you were part of before in a new partnership "just cos"?

British exceptionalists make me LAUGH.

 

[Frankfurter]

Not really, we could just drop tariffs on items we're struggling with supply of and advertise that we're buying. We literally can selectively import wtf we like with no tariffs if we want when outside the EU.

As big and scary the export numbers sound its estimated that less than 10% of UK business exports, and even less of those to the EU. Even with tariffs we would still export to the EU and whilst supply and demand laws would suggest the higher prices caused by tariffs would slow demand, there's no guarantee we actually would have much higher prices if we manage imports well and don't slap punitive tariffs on everything.

Also the Eu has free trade agreements with other countries who have totally different market regulations, there's no reason other than spite why a trade agreement cannot be struck with them when we currently have regulation parity.

Coffee for instance, beans have no tariff applied by the EU but HUGE tariffs applied if they are roasted. We are all paying through the nose for roasting whilst keeping a foot on the head of coffee growers in countries that could really do with being able to expand their industries.

Those free trade agreements are far away from what the UK currently has with the EU, i.e. access to the single market.

 

[Spuck-uk]

edit:redundant

 

[Spuck-uk]

I'm back to utterly despairing about my future thanks to brexit. I work in the public sector, I'm entering the period where you make the biggest jumps in your career, and it's going to be utterly and completely fucked by these morons and our MPS. How can anyone talk about a 10year recession and maybe a depression and think that's okay? That's the sort of economic disaster which affects *generations*.

Yes but but we'll Take Back Control

..and surely that's worth it?*






*fuck fuck fuck fuck

 

[Camp Freddie]

Not really, we could just drop tariffs on items we're struggling with supply of and advertise that we're buying. We literally can selectively import wtf we like with no tariffs if we want when outside the EU.

As big and scary the export numbers sound its estimated that less than 10% of UK business exports, and even less of those to the EU. Even with tariffs we would still export to the EU and whilst supply and demand laws would suggest the higher prices caused by tariffs would slow demand, there's no guarantee we actually would have much higher prices if we manage imports well and don't slap punitive tariffs on everything.

If we import more than we export, the value of the pound drops. This raises the cost of imported goods, regardless of tariffs. Higher imports at higher costs while exports drop means stagflation. This is very bad.

We currently balance our trade deficit with foreign direct investment, which is essentially 'exporting' the ownership of British businesses and other assets.
Selling businesses can be a good idea, but those businesses depend on exports. Selling domestically-focused businesses or infrastructure is generally bad. Brexit means our export focused businesses are fucked and no-one will want to buy them (except for bad reasons like asset stripping).

So "Take Back Control" will become a desperate plea for foreign people to buy our domestic-focused industry and assets in order to prevent runaway stagflation caused by an increasing trade deficit.
And if Corbyn gets in, he will fight against foreign investment and reverse it by renationalising. The economy then makes the 70's look like a boom-time.

At least, that's my Economics 101 take on it. Dunning-Kruger effect may well be in effect.

 

[The Friendly Monster]

Also the Eu has free trade agreements with other countries who have totally different market regulations, there's no reason other than spite why a trade agreement cannot be struck with them when we currently have regulation parity.

Members of the EU get better trade deals because they are part of a large trading bloc, not despite that fact. The UK will have nothing like the negotiation power alone it currently enjoys in the EU, it will get worse deals. The reason will not be "spite".

 

[kmag]

Tariffs are not based on need, no. The vast majority of goods we buy are desire related purchases and not need related purchases. The reality that governments slap import tariffs on goods that are needed is irksome to me.

We all need the lowest prices for goods as possible, the protection of prices is only considered for the biggest and most influential of organisations.

Tariffs mean diddly squat. It's actually sad that people can't seem to get over them. It's the non tariff barriers which are fucking kryptonite to the pan European supply chain and the UK service economy.

Tariffs are a fixed cost the importer pays. Once known they can be worked around. Hell most of the import cost from Europe will be in VAT differentials rather than tariffs (that'll put most small importers out of business due to a lack of liquidity).

The main area where tariffs are problematic is agriculture, and what you're describing is the end of widespread farming in the UK (and no you can't subsidise, you're not big enough to get away with it)

 

[Chinner]

Members of the EU get better trade deals because they are part of a large trading bloc, not despite that fact. The UK will have nothing like the negotiation power alone it currently enjoys in the EU, it will get worse deals. The reason will not be "spite".

The real reason will not matter. The newspapers will create their own narrative while our country is destroyed and transformed into a tax haven.

We're pretty fucked, like America. Our only saving grace is that the majority of younger people are on the side of reason. We will be able to fix this, but will take decades.

 

[oti]

Members of the EU get better trade deals because they are part of a large trading bloc, not despite that fact. The UK will have nothing like the negotiation power alone it currently enjoys in the EU, it will get worse deals. The reason will not be "spite".

There's also a reason other nations don't want to start negotiating trade deals with the UK at this point. Negotiate what? How is that supposed to work without knowing the future relationship between the UK and the EU?

 

[TimmmV]

There's also a reason other nations don't want to start negotiating trade deals with the UK at this point. Negotiate what? How is that supposed to work without knowing the future relationship between the UK and the EU?

Plus other nations have time on their side - why negotiate with the UK now when you could just wait a year or so for them to be more desperate as the leave date gets closer?

 

[Zaph]

Plus other nations have time on their side - why negotiate with the UK now when you could just wait a year or so for them to be more desperate as the leave date gets closer?

Brexiters struggle with big words like "leverage" and "self-interest".

 

[The Friendly Monster]

Plus other nations have time on their side - why negotiate with the UK now when you could just wait a year or so for them to be more desperate as the leave date gets closer?

Those other countries must just be jealous of the UK then. They should definitely compromise any relationship they have with the rEU and not do what's best for their citizens by signing off on a trade deal with the UK that replicates the EU deal. Also the UK would be doing them a favour because we all know the UK can do even better now it won't be shackled by all those EU regulations it should replicate and it won't have the vast experienced team of EU trade negotiators on its side.

Why are people so intent on being spiteful towards to UK? I mean it's hardly the UK's fault that it's in this position which is entirely of it's own doing. People should make trade deals with the UK because they are clearly such trustworthy international partners. Who remembers the commonwealth? Any bad blood is entirely the EUs fault, all that Eastern European expansion and using immigration to boost the UK economy and profile far above what would be otherwise possible. Disgraceful.

Rule Britannia! Also German cars.

 

[danm999]

A lot of potential UK free trade partners would rightfully question who they would even be dealing with 12 months from now should they begin free trade talks.

May? Johnson? Corbyn?

 

[JonathanEx]

Also - am I right in saying that as we are still members, we're currently not allowed by EU rules to actively be negotiating these new agreements?

 

[PJV3]

Also - am I right in saying that as we are still members, we're currently not allowed by EU rules to actively be negotiating these new agreements?

The Shitshow, I mean the government seems to think the EU will allow us to craft trade deals as part of the transitional deal they haven't got.

 

[Number45]

The Shitshow, I mean the government seems to think the EU will allow us to craft trade deals as part of the transitional deal they haven't got.

But, but, but we're REALLY close on that. We're making GOOD PROGRESS!

 

[TimmmV]

Also - am I right in saying that as we are still members, we're currently not allowed by EU rules to actively be negotiating these new agreements?

Yes

But I assume that the Brexiteer logic is that we are leaving anyway so why should we give a shit about honouring that agreement? Or that we can just negotiate in secret beforehand and then sign them all the day after leaving or something

The Shitshow, I mean the government seems to think the EU will allow us to craft trade deals as part of the transitional deal they haven't got.

Can you stop talking the country down please?

I mean seriously, where's your sense of adventure?*

*

Spoiler

hopefully in a place with only white people, otherwise I want nothing to do with you

 

[oti]

A lot of potential UK free trade partners would rightfully question who they would even be dealing with 12 months from now should they begin free trade talks.

May? Johnson? Corbyn?

Lord Buckethead.

 

[jelly]

Also - am I right in saying that as we are still members, we're currently not allowed by EU rules to actively be negotiating these new agreements?

True but if they somehow negotiate a transitional deal that should allow the UK to work on some trade deals while being part of the EU. It would be completely unfair to not allow the UK to do that but the UK has to pay their bills, get to the next stage to get that point and I doubt it.

I keep thinking the government is being useless so the economy crashes before leaving and they don't have to go through with it.

 

[Huddy]

This whole mess is all thanks to the Conservative party, beginning with the 2015 general election and Cameron's EU referendum high-stakes gamble to prevent losing voters to UKIP, now add six years of Conservative austerity after the banking crisis and you have a country with enough disillusioned people willing to vote against the establishment.

The Conservatives continue to wear their clown shoes 6 months after submitting article 50 with a party full of infighting and political grandstanding with the EU and it's own people.

The leave vote was bad, but the Conservatives are doing their very best to make it disastrous.

Finally fuck you Cameron for walking away, now were stuck with the incompetent May.

Rant over.

 

[PJV3]

But, but, but we're REALLY close on that. We're making GOOD PROGRESS!

Yep, we are definitely progressing towards the end, it's a shame the Tories aren't in charge of time as well.

 

[RenditMan]

You think Britain on its own is as attractive a proposition to other countries as the EU so they would replicate the same agreements you were part of before in a new partnership "just cos"?

British exceptionalists make me LAUGH.

Hyperbolic outbursts make me laugh too.

Our money is as good as anyone else's, I was merely pointing out that exports are a small part of our overall economy and imports we can control entirely how we want to. Smartly removing inward tariffs on certain items and raw materials could offset the imposition of outward tariffs on the stuff going the other way. People are screaming as if the EU are going to impose an outright ban on British goods, they aren't and never will.

We buy more then we sell, there's nothing exceptional about simple maths.

 

[Jackpot]

Hyperbolic outbursts make me laugh too.

Our money is as good as anyone else's, I was merely pointing out that exports are a small part of our overall economy and imports we can control entirely how we want to. Smartly removing inward tariffs on certain items and raw materials could offset the imposition of outward tariffs on the stuff going the other way. People are screaming as if the EU are going to impose an outright ban on British goods, they aren't and never will.

We buy more then we sell, there's nothing exceptional about simple maths.

Tell us more about the chocolate manufacturing resurgence.

 

[keep]

There is nothing hyperbolic about British exceptionalism. It's what's got you into this big ugly mess in the first place.

Have fun with your devalued money.

 

[TimmmV]

Hyperbolic outbursts make me laugh too.

Our money is as good as anyone else's, I was merely pointing out that exports are a small part of our overall economy and imports we can control entirely how we want to. Smartly removing inward tariffs on certain items and raw materials could offset the imposition of outward tariffs on the stuff going the other way. People are screaming as if the EU are going to impose an outright ban on British goods, they aren't and never will.

We buy more then we sell, there's nothing exceptional about simple maths.

This isn't how money works

 

[kmag]

Hyperbolic outbursts make me laugh too.

Our money is as good as anyone else's, I was merely pointing out that exports are a small part of our overall economy and imports we can control entirely how we want to. Smartly removing inward tariffs on certain items and raw materials could offset the imposition of outward tariffs on the stuff going the other way. People are screaming as if the EU are going to impose an outright ban on British goods, they aren't and never will.

We buy more then we sell, there's nothing exceptional about simple maths.

The WTO? How does it work?

Short answer: No, you can't control imports entirely how you want. The WTO imposes two main limits: an outer bound on what is possible (the latitude of which is actually relatively limited due the ability of other entities to inflict putative countervailing tariffs on restrictions they see as unnecessarily restrictive) and the need to treat all other WTO members equally.

Honestly it's like talking to a particularly dim 4 year old with a mouth full of crayon.

 

[jimbobsmells]

Hyperbolic outbursts make me laugh too.

Our money is as good as anyone else's, I was merely pointing out that exports are a small part of our overall economy and imports we can control entirely how we want to. Smartly removing inward tariffs on certain items and raw materials could offset the imposition of outward tariffs on the stuff going the other way. People are screaming as if the EU are going to impose an outright ban on British goods, they aren't and never will.

We buy more then we sell, there's nothing exceptional about simple maths.

Hyperbole vs Naivety. Who wins. You decide.

 

[RenditMan]

Tariffs mean diddly squat. It's actually sad that people can't seem to get over them. It's the non tariff barriers which are fucking kryptonite to the pan European supply chain and the UK service economy.

Tariffs are a fixed cost the importer pays. Once known they can be worked around. Hell most of the import cost from Europe will be in VAT differentials rather than tariffs (that'll put most small importers out of business due to a lack of liquidity).

The main area where tariffs are problematic is agriculture, and what you're describing is the end of widespread farming in the UK (and no you can't subsidise, you're not big enough to get away with it)

You're talking to someone who grew up on a farm.

Hyperbole vs Naivety. Who wins. You decide.

I'm not easily frightened by propaganda.

 

[kmag]

You're talking to someone who grew up on a farm.

And? Doesn't change the thesis. The UK isn't a large enough market to pull an EU or US and basically just ignore the WTO rules on farm subsidy. The WTO chief has stated he thinks it would be next to impossible to for the UK to adopt subsidies similar to the CAP levels.

In some areas, it would simply make no sense to adopt the EU's WTO commitments, especially farm subsidies. The EU has made commitments to limit them. The UK couldn't realistically expect other countries to accept the same cap. "Other members would definitely not agree to that," Mr Azevedo says.

UK farmers are inefficient compared to countries with better climate and more arable land (this is true across most of western Europe hence the CAP). Opening up to even midpoint WTO rules will decimate farmers.

Don't believe me? Believe the NFU

Price changes due to Brexit have a positive impact on farm incomes in all sectors under the FTA and
WTO default scenario. In case of a UK Trade Liberalisation scenario, the livestock sector will face price
declines, and subsequently its income is negatively affected.
The positive price impacts on farm incomes in the FTA and WTO default scenario will be offset by the
loss of direct payments, in case these trade scenarios are combined with reduced agricultural support.
A reduction of direct payments or their complete elimination further aggravates farmers' income
effects under the UK Trade Liberalisation scenario.
In case of the abolition of direct payments a large share of farms will have negative income effects.
Consequently, the viability of a substantial share (15-25%, depending on the scenario) of farms will
be negatively affected by this policy change.
Livestock sectors in particular are heavily dependent on direct income payments: 2012/2013 FADN
data indicate that without these payments their income would be negative. Also mixed farms and field
crop farms greatly rely on direct payments for their income. Overall, two-third of the UK's farm
income relies on direct payment support.
All UK regions would show on average a decline in farm incomes in case the UK government fully
abolished the direct payments. A 50% reduction of subsidies shows more diverse results with better
results under the WTO default scenario than under the FTA scenario.
Again the UK TL scenario shows the most significant changes. Farm incomes decline in all regions,
except for England-East where half of the UK horticultural farms are located and which are little
affected by the reduction of direct income payments. Farm incomes are most severely affected in
Scotland under a UK TL Scenario.

https://www.nfuonline.com/assets/61142

 

[mehrmantrout]

Corbyns said Labour would vote against no deal. Probably to deal the fatal blow to the Tories then he can force an election and exit on his terms

Though is no deal not a deal with the EU and thus wouldn't be put forward as a vote, I'm sure some bright spark will come up with that line of thinking

 

[PJV3]

Corbyns said Labour would vote against no deal. Probably to deal the fatal blow to the Tories then he can force an election and exit on his terms

Though is no deal not a deal with the EU and thus wouldn't be put forward as a vote, I'm sure some bright spark will come up with that line of thinking

No deal is not ideal and is not a deal, and Labour won't vote for it if there is a vote, but it's not a no deal because there isn't a deal.

I think I'm OK with that.

 

[GamingKaiju]

Lord Buckethead.

I'd vote for him over everyone else.

Well it looks like Hard Brexit it is! Honestly I'm not that surprised tbh should of put a bet on it Brexit always was hard Brexit.

Worried for what the future will hold. Hopefully at the GE we get a PM who gives a damn and things will start looking up. But for now the fuck wits are still in power and the UK is only going to get worse.

Rule Britannia! 🇬🇧

Edit:

The Government should start planning for what comes after and use what's left of the art. 50 time to prepare not waste it chasing after a trade deal that was never going to be.

 

[jelly]

No deal is not ideal and is not a deal, and Labour won't vote for it if there is a vote, but it's not a no deal because there isn't a deal.

I think I'm OK with that.

That first sentence is quite amusing to read, I just get lost in the words.

 

[Spuck-uk]

There is nothing hyperbolic about British exceptionalism. It's what's got you into this big ugly mess in the first place.

Have fun with your devalued money.

I'm increasingly glad I can speak German, should help with brexiting this shit island when things fall apart.

Nationalism, the source of some of the dumbest human behaviour possible.

 

[Spuck-uk]

You're talking to someone who grew up on a farm.



I'm not easily frightened by propaganda.

I always wondered who the people who voted for and continue to think that any part of this is a good idea.

Sadly, now I know.

 

[PJV3]

That first sentence is quite amusing to read, I just get lost in the words.

I want the Tories to own this disaster for decades, I don't want Corbyn finally winning a vote and labour coming in at the last minute to steer us onto the rocks.

I'm happy if he doesn't get to vote on a no deal that isn't a deal.(unless he's going to do brexit differently in the 2 months left of membership)

I'm just expecting the worst now.

 

[kmag]

I'd vote for him over everyone else.

Well it looks like Hard Brexit it is! Honestly I'm not that surprised tbh should of put a bet on it Brexit always was hard Brexit.

Worried for what the future will hold. Hopefully at the GE we get a PM who gives a damn and things will start looking up. But for now the fuck wits are still in power and the UK is only going to get worse.

Rule Britannia! 🇬🇧

Edit:

The Government should start planning for what comes after and use what's left of the art. 50 time to prepare not waste it chasing after a trade deal that was never going to be.

It's too late to plan for a no deal Brexit.

Take a simple example food and meat imports. Food from the EU (which makes up about 35%-40% of what we consume) doesn't currently need to be inspected on entry. Food from the rest of the world is inspected either at entry or at source by EU inspectors. Post Brexit it will have to (as we inspect other food which is imported and have to treat all parties equally under WTO rules). It takes 3 years to train a food safety inspector, and 5 years to train a vet (needed for meat inspections).

 

[jimbobsmells]

I'm not easily frightened by propaganda.

That’s good. Some of us are not easily persuaded by nationalistic propaganda either. So again, win win.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

It's too late to plan for a no deal Brexit.

Take a simple example food and meat imports. Food from the EU (which makes up about 35%-40% of what we consume) doesn't currently need to be inspected on entry. Food from the rest of the world is inspected either at entry or at source by EU inspectors. Post Brexit it will have to (as we inspect other food which is imported and have to treat all parties equally under WTO rules). It takes 3 years to train a food safety inspector, and 5 years to train a vet (needed for meat inspections).

Nah mate. It's all about that 350 million a week that could go to the NHS instead.

 

[Jackpot]

You're talking to someone who grew up on a farm.



I'm not easily frightened by propaganda.

WTO rules are propaganda now?

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Corbyn/Labour wants a lengthy transition period and an avoidance of a cliff edge, leading into some sort of life outside the single market and customs union. If the Tories put that on the table as a vote as far as I can see he and Labour's left would happily vote it through, similar to the A50 triggering vote. You'd likely get Umunna rebelling but that would likely do nothing.

Only thing I agree on with his lot is that any deal is better than the no deal the Tories appear to be gunning for now. Not that they'll actually manage to leave without a deal.

 

[jelly]

Nah mate. It's all about that 350 million a week that could go to the NHS instead.

May said she has spent 250 million doing no deal Brexit contingency stuff. It fair adds up eh! This time next millennium we will be dead Rodney!

 

[RenditMan]

This isn't how money works

Yes it is. Every money on the planet spends the same as any other.

 

[RenditMan]

WTO rules are propaganda now?

WTO does not stop a country unilaterally removing or lowering tariffs on items as long as all WTO members are treated the same. Why wouldn't they be?

 

[jimbobsmells]

Just got round to reading this Peter North gem: http://peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/i-dont-like-this-brexit-but-i-will-live.html?m=1

"In the first year or so we are going to lose a lot of manufacturing."
"Meanwhile wages will stay depressed and because of the collapse of disposable income and availability of staff, we can probably expect the service sector to take a big hit thus eliminating all the jobs that might provide a supplementary income."
"Across the board we will see prices rising"
"It will cause a spike in crime."
"...it will wipe out the cosseted lower middle class and remind them that they are just as dispensable as the rest of us."
"Unemployment will be back to where it was in the 80's."

"...given the opportunity to vote again I would still vote to leave."

 

[EmiPrime]

Just got round to reading this Peter North gem: http://peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/i-dont-like-this-brexit-but-i-will-live.html?m=1

"In the first year or so we are going to lose a lot of manufacturing."
"Meanwhile wages will stay depressed and because of the collapse of disposable income and availability of staff, we can probably expect the service sector to take a big hit thus eliminating all the jobs that might provide a supplementary income."
"Across the board we will see prices rising"
"It will cause a spike in crime."
"...it will wipe out the cosseted lower middle class and remind them that they are just as dispensable as the rest of us."
"Unemployment will be back to where it was in the 80's."

"...given the opportunity to vote again I would still vote to leave."

What a sociopath.

 

[PJV3]

What a sociopath.

Even when I'm wrong I am right, he's an absolute fuckwit.

 

[TimmmV]

Yes it is. Every money on the planet spends the same as any other.

 

[Plum]

Just got round to reading this Peter North gem: http://peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/i-dont-like-this-brexit-but-i-will-live.html?m=1

"In the first year or so we are going to lose a lot of manufacturing."
"Meanwhile wages will stay depressed and because of the collapse of disposable income and availability of staff, we can probably expect the service sector to take a big hit thus eliminating all the jobs that might provide a supplementary income."
"Across the board we will see prices rising"
"It will cause a spike in crime."
"...it will wipe out the cosseted lower middle class and remind them that they are just as dispensable as the rest of us."
"Unemployment will be back to where it was in the 80's."

"...given the opportunity to vote again I would still vote to leave."

Is there any reason to why? Or is he just a cunt?

 

[jelly]

Is there any reason to why? Or is he just a cunt?

Something like cleansing, rise from the ashes, the strongest survive. A Nazi, could be.