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Brexit | OT3 | A Feast for Crows

J

jelly

Member
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/12/mps-should-not-feel-obliged-to-back-brexit-says-john-bercow

The Commons Speaker, John Bercow, has said MPs have the right to attempt to block Brexit using the parliamentary process, rather than feeling obliged to vote in line with the referendum result.

In a wide-ranging Q&A, Bercow also referred to the Daily Mail as “the Daily Fail” for its criticism of parliament’s new £7m education centre, though he himself has often been the target of the newspaper’s attacks.

Bercow was the target of a short-lived plot by Conservative MPs to oust him from the role, which he has held since 2009, with several alleging he had failed to be impartial having declared he voted remain in the EU referendum, among other accusations.

Speaking to the Hansard Society, Bercow said it was an “opinion, rather than a constitutional fact” that MPs were obliged to vote through Brexit because of the referendum result.

“There will be some members of parliament who say: ‘I want to be able at the end of all this if I’m not satisfied, to say no, to try to persuade other members of parliament to say no, and to hope that no might delay Brexit or prevent Brexit,’” he said, in comments reported by Politico. “Do they have a right to argue that point of view? They absolutely do.”
Click to expand...
 
U

Uzzy

Member
The press conference with Barnier and Davis was delayed a bit by the presence of Anti-Brexit Supergirl. I don't recall her being in the DC canon myself.

DL7kI5pX0AAKUf3.jpg
Click to expand...
 
A

avaya

Member
oilvomer said:
In all seriousness what would be the point of a referendum on the final deal? it is flawed logic, firstly it would give the EU a even greater incentive to stick to their guns, and secondly what if we voted down the final deal? we can not simply keep repeating said negotiations until 2050.
Click to expand...

Let this fantasy go that we have any leverage. In Europe there are only small states and small states which have not realised they are small states yet.

No one on the continent could give a flying fuck if we are united or not. They are sharks who are protecting their national interest. It is in the national interest of all EU27 states to preserve the sanctity and supremacy of the single market. This will mean nothing short of UK capitulation is acceptable. There will be very large sums of money extracted for access to the SM, assuming only EUR10bn like Norway is comedy gold, numbers don't read across like that. It will be applied as a percentage.

I can see EUR20-30bn being the minimum acceptable club fee. That would still be reasonable relative to the loss of half a trillion in GDP from no access and ultimate pariah status. This country is irrevocably fucked without at least EEA terms.
 
J

Jackpot

Banned
RenditMan said:
Yes it is. Every money on the planet spends the same as any other.
Click to expand...

Rather than flitting to the next fake point as you normally do, please stand your ground and explain the above.

RenditMan said:
WTO does not stop a country unilaterally removing or lowering tariffs on items as long as all WTO members are treated the same. Why wouldn't they be?
Click to expand...

You said "imports we can control entirely how we want to" and people pointed out WTO rules trump our own:

In the absence of a deal between the UK and the EU, the UK would then be required to follow World Trade Organisation rules on tariffs.
Click to expand...

These WTO tariffs range from 32 per cent on wine, to 4.1 per cent on liquefied natural gas, with items like cars (9.8 per cent) and wheat products (12.8 per cent) somewhere in between.

John Springford, an economist with the Centre for European Reform, the total cost of those tariffs would be large, ranging from a 2.2 per cent of GDP (£40 billion) to 9 per cent.
Click to expand...

From that anti-brexit propaganda outlet The Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/what-would-brexit-mean-for-british-trade/
 
G

GrizzleBoy

Banned
Where are all the people who voted to leave with strong convictions anyway?

You'd think a Brexit thread would have posters who believe in Brexit.

Don't even brexiteers believe in Brexit anymore?

There were so many good reasons for leaving and so many ways in which we would easily benefit.

Why don't we get to hear about them anymore? Not even on the TV. Not even Nick Farage (or was it Nigel Ferrari?) on LBCs 7-10 morning show will touch Brexit with a barge pole. (Although Iain Dale will still embarrass himself daily if required).

Where is all the hope and optimism?

Isn't Brexit supposed to be an inherently good thing? Where is all the celebration?

sticman said:
Was it really a good idea to have this guy doing the Brexit negotiations?
Click to expand...

Maybe this is the answer?

High ranking brexiteers promising the world and more, while not knowing a fuck about anything?

edit: then surprisingly also being able to deliver fuck all as a head negotiator.
 
J

jelly

Member
The big meanie EU won't let the Empire rise.

Who needs experts.......we need experts......experts say it's stupid......lalalalalalalalalala......
 
T

tuxfool

Banned
GrizzleBoy said:
Where are all the people who voted to leave with strong convictions anyway?

You'd think a Brexit thread would have posters who believe in Brexit.

Don't even brexiteers believe in Brexit anymore?

There were so many good reasons for leaving and so many ways in which we would easily benefit.

Why don't we get to hear about them anymore? Not even on the TV. Not even Nick Farage (or was it Nigel Ferrari?) on LBCs 7-10 morning show will touch Brexit with a barge pole. (Although Iain Dale will still embarrass himself daily if required).

Where is all the hope and optimism?

Isn't Brexit supposed to be an inherently good thing? Where is all the celebration?
Click to expand...
They're still around. Unfortunately conversations are kind of pointless. See Renditman's posts. They're entirely detached from the real world.
 
T

theaface

Member
GrizzleBoy said:
Where are all the people who voted to leave with strong convictions anyway?

You'd think a Brexit thread would have posters who believe in Brexit.

Don't even brexiteers believe in Brexit anymore?

There were so many good reasons for leaving and so many ways in which we would easily benefit.

Why don't we get to hear about them anymore? Not even on the TV. Not even Nick Farage (or was it Nigel Ferrari?) on LBCs 7-10 morning show will touch Brexit with a barge pole. (Although Iain Dale will still embarrass himself daily if required).

Where is all the hope and optimism?

Isn't Brexit supposed to be an inherently good thing? Where is all the celebration?



Maybe this is the answer?

High ranking brexiteers promising the world and more, while not knowing a fuck about anything?

edit: then surprisingly also being able to deliver fuck all as a head negotiator.
Click to expand...

You get some from time to time. They post some silliness and get challenged with facts, sources and well-articulated counter arguments. Then they move the goalposts and double-down for a bit, are countered accordingly. Finally they cry 'dogpiling' and 'hive mind' and leave.

Brexiteers, now more than ever, exemplify a post-truth, alternative facts bizarro world of today, where not admitting you simply made a mistake and got it wrong is more important than anything else.
 
T

TeddyBoy

Member
GrizzleBoy said:
Where are all the people who voted to leave with strong convictions anyway?

You'd think a Brexit thread would have posters who believe in Brexit.

Don't even brexiteers believe in Brexit anymore?
Click to expand...

On top of what everyone else said, demographically, GAF has a lot of young, well educated, left leaning and fairly well off (gaming isn’t the cheapest hobby in the world) individuals. It is mostly older voters who voted for Brexit who would not tend to visit GAF.

Put these together and the proportions of people who are pro-leave are unsurprisingly low.

Then you have the dog pile affect whenever anyone posts anything pro-leave and you have what we have now.
 
R

RenditMan

Banned
GrizzleBoy said:
Where are all the people who voted to leave with strong convictions anyway?

You'd think a Brexit thread would have posters who believe in Brexit.

Don't even brexiteers believe in Brexit anymore?

There were so many good reasons for leaving and so many ways in which we would easily benefit.

Why don't we get to hear about them anymore? Not even on the TV. Not even Nick Farage (or was it Nigel Ferrari?) on LBCs 7-10 morning show will touch Brexit with a barge pole. (Although Iain Dale will still embarrass himself daily if required).

Where is all the hope and optimism?

Isn't Brexit supposed to be an inherently good thing? Where is all the celebration?



Maybe this is the answer?

High ranking brexiteers promising the world and more, while not knowing a fuck about anything?

edit: then surprisingly also being able to deliver fuck all as a head negotiator.
Click to expand...

The majority of leave voters will have found their own echo chamber, only the brave few dare enter the other sides echo chamber.
 
K

kmag

Member
I don't think a standstilll transitional deal is possible. If the UK and EU agree a transitional deal offering full services access then South Korea needs to get the same level of services access.

From the EU South Korea FTA text
With respect to any measures covered by this Section
affecting the cross-border supply of services, unless otherwise
provided for in this Article, each Party shall accord to services
and service suppliers of the other Party treatment no less
favourable than that it accords to like services and service
suppliers of any third country in the context of an economic
integration agreement signed after the entry into force of this
Agreement.
Click to expand...

That's a major issue.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
kmag said:
I don't think a standstilll transitional deal is possible. If the UK and EU agree a transitional deal offering full services access then South Korea needs to get the same level of services access.

From the EU South Korea FTA text


That's a major issue.
Click to expand...

They could skirt around this by extending the negotiation time for leaving such the UK doesn't technically exit until the transition ends couldn't they ? Though I can't see that being politically palatable for the Conservatives or any reason why the EU would go to such lengths.
 
K

kmag

Member
Elaugaufein said:
They could skirt around this by extending the negotiation time for leaving such the UK doesn't technically exit until the transition ends couldn't they ? Though I can't see that being politically palatable for the Conservatives or any reason why the EU would go to such lengths.
Click to expand...

They could just extend article 50, but then the UK wouldn't have left (and once we'd cleaned up the brain matter from the Tory backbenches) then the full laws and obligations of being an EU member would apply for that period (no discussing trade deals, full payments etc)
 
K

kmag

Member
killer_clank said:
I'd be shocked if there wasn't some legal fudge available to prevent the UK being a third country during any transition deal.
Click to expand...

EEA or remain in the EU. And the EEA doesn't give a CU (the CU is only available to EU members)

The EU statutes are clear, in the words of May 3rd Country means 3rd Country, Member means Member
 
D

Dirtyshubb

Member
Am I being silly or are we finally starting to see the initial push to make cancelling brexit acceptable for the public?

The narrative the last week has changed to focus on how bad things are going, how detrimental the results have/will be and more importantly a lot of talk about the hidden reports that say how bad brexit will be, how we can cancel it, how MPs can vote against the deal etc.

I think the only thing holding brexit together is the fact the Tories will probably split if they did cancel it and they know they would be ruined as a political party for many years.
 
H

Huw_Dawson

Member
Uzzy said:
Flip it on its head a bit. Let's say that the final deal turns out to be the Norway option and we join the EEA for the indefinite future. It's highly likely that Parliament would vote for such an option, and the hardcore Brexiteers would go nuclear over the 'establishment stitchup.'

I think we'd see them demanding a second referendum at that point, to see if the British people will accept that as the future direction of the country.
Click to expand...

Yeah, recall Farage saying that a 52/48 split where Remain won would not have been the end for his side? The hard right tend to enjoy using democracy against itself.

A referendum on the final deal is not that complex to understand. Parliament is going to ratify the final deal (or presumably consent to no deal). Why let Parliament decide this, and not the people of the country who initiated the process?

Have a straight choice between rejecting the deal or accepting it. If the deal is rejected the government can go from there.
 
M

Mr. Sam

Member
A good piece by Stephen Bush in the New Statesman:

Brexit is failing because it's being negotiated in the interests of the Conservative Party

But the difficulty is that the loss of political sovereignity this involves is unsatisfying to the Brexit elite – perhaps one or two per cent of the population at best – who are in the main unworried about immigration, inoculated from economic harm, but are obsessed with sovereignity and free trade.

...

There is the potential for a settlement in December. But we shouldn’t forget that the reason why the Brexit talks are unlikely to deliver what the bulk of British voters, Remain or Leave, want is because they are being shaped not by the interests of the 52 per cent who wanted to leave or the fears of the 48 per cent who opted to stay in the EU, but by the minority interests of a small group of Brexiteers, largely concentrated in the Conservative Party.
Click to expand...
 
J

Jackpot

Banned
RenditMan said:
That statement is as literal as it gets sir, I'm not sure what your question is. Apart from North Korea maybe every money spends the same as any other.
Click to expand...

My Zimbabwean dollars spend the same as US dollars? I can walk into any newsagents in the UK and buy a paper using Euros? There is literally no aspect in which currencies behave homogenously.
 
L

Linkstrikesback

Member
RenditMan said:
That statement is as literal as it gets sir, I'm not sure what your question is. Apart from North Korea maybe every money spends the same as any other.
Click to expand...

No, it doesn't. I don't understand how you're confused. In 2006, £1 got you the around of 2 US Dollars. In 2017, it gets you about $1.3-1.4 worth of product. And I couldn't take my GBP over to Paris and expect it to have any worth at all without first having to use it to buy Euros. Same for the US and any other country.
The value of the currency is only as strong as the country it's from makes it.
 
M

Mr. Sam

Member
You could say that you can exchange pounds for goods and services, the same as you can euros or Zimbabwean dollars, but that's so vapid an observation that I'm not sure why you'd make it.
 
J

jelly

Member
Chinner said:
Question : if we were to walk away from the talks would we actually leave the EU or just go dark until 2019?
Click to expand...

We are still in until March 2019 whatever happens but walking away will just set the fan to full power and huge piles of shit being thrown which might actually be the wake up call people need to cancel the whole thing before March.
 
C

Chinner

Banned
jelly said:
We are still in until March 2019 whatever happens but walking away will just set the fan to full power and huge piles of shit being thrown which might actually be the wake up call people need to cancel the whole thing before March.
Click to expand...
That's what I'm starting to think tbb
 
J

jimbobsmells

Member
Mr. Sam said:
A good piece by Stephen Bush in the New Statesman:

Brexit is failing because it's being negotiated in the interests of the Conservative Party
Click to expand...

There is the potential for a settlement in December. But we shouldn�t forget that the reason why the Brexit talks are unlikely to deliver what the bulk of British voters, Remain or Leave, want is because they are being shaped not by the interests of the 52 per cent who wanted to leave or the fears of the 48 per cent who opted to stay in the EU, but by the minority interests of a small group of Brexiteers, largely concentrated in the Conservative Party.
Click to expand...

Absolutely bang on.
 
J

jelly

Member
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/13/david-davis-faces-legal-threat-over-secret-reports-on-brexit-impact

David Davis, the Brexit secretary, has been threatened with legal action over his refusal to publish 50 secret studies commissioned on the impact of Brexit.

Lawyers acting for the Good Law Project, which is bringing the action jointly with the Green party MEP Molly Scott Cato, wrote to the Brexit department and Treasury on Thursday demanding the release of the documents. They said that failure to do so within 14 days would result in the issue of judicial review proceedings before the high court in an attempt to force their release.

The 50 studies into the impact of Brexit on different industries were commissioned earlier this year but the government has argued that publishing them could damage the UK’s negotiating position with Brussels.

olyon Maugham QC, who runs the GLP, said he would not bring the case without believing it had “good, serious prospects” of succeeding. He said he had received legal advice that the government may have a duty under common law to publish the studies into the potential impact on jobs and living standards.

“It seems to me the government’s reluctance to release these studies is born not of its ability to damage our negotiating position but what’s politically expedient,” he said.

Scott Cato, who has made several unsuccessful attempts to force the government to release the studies, including freedom of information requests, said the rule of law required that MPs know “what Brexit really means before they formally vote for our withdrawal”.
Click to expand...

“The European referendum was all about taking back control but how can our democratic representatives make decisions in our interests when the government is withholding vital information?” she said. “It has been clear for some time that the attempt to keep the Brexit impact studies secret is more to cover the government’s blushes than to enable efficient lawmaking.”

More than 120 MPs have signed a letter demanding that Davis publish the findings.
Click to expand...

Stop talking us down and also don't tell the truth.
 
T

TeamLeftMatch

Member
jelly said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/13/david-davis-faces-legal-threat-over-secret-reports-on-brexit-impact





Stop talking us down and also don't tell the truth.
Click to expand...

I mean:

The 50 studies into the impact of Brexit on different industries were commissioned earlier this year but the government has argued that publishing them could damage the UK’s negotiating position with Brussels.
Click to expand...

This pretty much tells us that the impact of Brexit is (GASP) is not going to help the UK industry, but dont worry we're free now. so everything will be fine.
 
C

Calabi

Member
See the UK government knows exactly how bad its going to be when we leave. How do they think they are going to get away with it, surely they know they are going to be screwed when its bad as their own predictions. At least I hope their is at least some tiny consequences from doing what they know will be really bad.

And how do they still not get they dont have a negotiating position there is no position from leaving.
 
L

Linkstrikesback

Member
Calabi said:
See the UK government knows exactly how bad its going to be when we leave. How do they think they are going to get away with it, surely they know they are going to be screwed when its bad as their own predictions. At least I hope their is at least some tiny consequences from doing what they know will be really bad.

And how do they still not get they dont have a negotiating position there is no position from leaving.
Click to expand...
The same way they get away with anything. Find someone to blame (Likely the EU, maybe Corbyn/"Remoaners" if that doesn't work), and feign ignorance that any of it is their fault.
 
J

jelly

Member
PJV3 said:
I think people have forgotten how shitty and secretive the UK state can be, the take back control brigade are going to be disappointed if they aren't in positions of power.
Click to expand...

Yeah, there is some evil paradise for some powerful people that really want Brexit to go ahead, the majority are going to suffer a poorer quality of life, even the loyal leavers. Let us hope remainers are doing the work behind the scenes to steer us away from that. It should frighten people that they are going against all common sense and they aren't worried, what does that tell you except they won't suffer.
 
G

GrizzleBoy

Banned
jelly said:
Yeah, there is some evil paradise for some powerful people that really want Brexit to go ahead, the majority are going to suffer a poorer quality of life, even the loyal leavers. Let us hope remainers are doing the work behind the scenes to steer us away from that. It should frighten people that they are going against all common sense and they aren't worried, what does that tell you except they won't suffer.
Click to expand...

Well.

When poor people get poorer, it's usually because the rich are becoming richer.

Those already living in the gutter will simply just be living in the gutter with more peoole that weren't there before. That or dead.

People who used to stay above the gutter will now be in it.

People who were comfortable will now just be hanging over the gutter till the next earthquake makes them slip down further. (People who think they are comfortable at this very mome t don't even seem to realise they're one missed paycheck from spiralling into a debt hell)

People who could afford businesses will shut then down and all the top earners with all the wealth of the country shoved under a mattress In the Cayman islands will happily step in to the void of reduced private sector competition.

It's literally a win for everybody.

Why would anyone not want this?
 
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