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Canadian dollar will drop to 59 cents US in 2016, Macquarie forecasts

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Sakura

Sakura

Member
Tabris said:
That's the thing though, oil price hasn't driven down our GDP growth enough to justify this currency valuation. The issue is the US economy at the same time and currency speculation that's driving it down. Not diversifying our economy was an issue but it's not the biggest issue. The biggest issue is the US recovery and that our dollar is too tied with theirs.
Click to expand...

Yea when we are talking a drop down to 59 cents, there isn't really much that is in our control here. Investing in infrastructure, other sectors, etc would be nice for sure, but do people actually believe that would've stopped our dollar from dropping so much?
 
A

Akuun

Looking for meaning in GAF
One of these days I'll fish out all those random American 5 cent coins that end up in my change and then go buy a fucking castle.
 
T

Tabris

Member
Darksol said:
Eh? Less than 10 years ago 1 dollar Canadian was around 110 yen. This month alone we've fallen from 87 to 82 yen.
Click to expand...

Less then 2 years ago our dollar was worth 1.10 USD and is now at .69 cents.

So again, it hasn't lost as much value in comparison.
 
M

Minus_Me

Member
Made an absurd killing on simply flipping some American currency I had bought for such an event.

Hope it turns around though.
 
W

whitehawk

Banned
Americans will be in shopping paradise soon. You could get an Xbox One for less than $250 USD.

It's tough right now though. If you're a canadian working for an american company though, you're absolutely golden right now.
 
T

Tabris

Member
I saw this in another thread. People really need to see it and understand oil prices isn't what is driving this, it's a scape goat.

2012-0126_img04-eng_0-362x179.jpg


That 7% isn't just comprised of oil but all the various other natural resources.

The issue is US recovery. Oil prices slowed down a GDP growth contributor at the worst time as the US economy is going strong, but the US fed hike and currency speculation is what has driven down our dollar.
 
V

vainglorious

Member
Sorry, more derailing. But if the Canadian dollar is gonna be cheap this summer it might be time to finally take a trip to Manitoulin Island.

Has anyone here been?
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Tabris said:
I saw this in another thread. People really need to see it and understand oil prices isn't what is driving this, it's a scape goat.

2012-0126_img04-eng_0-362x179.jpg


That 7% isn't just comprised of oil but all the various other natural resources.

The issue is US recovery. Oil prices slowed down a GDP growth contributor at the worst time as the US economy is going strong, but the US fed hike and currency speculation is what has driven down our dollar.
Click to expand...
the Canadian dollar is a petro dollar. When there was a oil price at its highest, we were at parity with the US dollar
 
Mr Nash

Mr Nash

square pies = communism
Tabris said:
Vancouver is going to get worse before it gets better, as if Bank of Canada drops interest rates, it will drive foreign investment even more (not just from China). Vancouver also has the highest GDP growth in the country so it's not feeling any effect of the couple of recession quarters outside our dollar being low for purchasing imported goods / travel.

I agree with the second point. Trump's damage will be good for Canada just as Bush's damage was good for Canada.
Click to expand...

The funny thing about Vancouver GDP is that it is largely being fueled by the FIRE industries. =p

But yeah, if interest rates and the dollar stay low prices on real estate will continue to rise as folks pour money (which they usually hold in US dollars) into cheap assets (relatively speaking from the viewpoint of international markets) which are all the more enticing since, as foreign buyers, they'll have more upside simply on the currency trade when the Canadian dollar inevitably does start to rise in value again. Moreover, as we see places like China's economies correcting, there's a decent chance we'll see it accelerate further as people from these parts of the world pull out their money before strict lockdowns on capital flight are put in place.
 
beat

beat

Member
Tabris said:
I saw this in another thread. People really need to see it and understand oil prices isn't what is driving this, it's a scape goat.

2012-0126_img04-eng_0-362x179.jpg


That 7% isn't just comprised of oil but all the various other natural resources.

The issue is US recovery. Oil prices slowed down a GDP growth contributor at the worst time as the US economy is going strong, but the US fed hike and currency speculation is what has driven down our dollar.
Click to expand...

But aren't you talking about the same issue from a different focus? One is about the US recovery vs Canadian stagnation, the other is about Canadian stagnation due to oil price collapse.

Also, when is that chart from? Post-collapse? Because in a way, that only highlights the issue: with higher oil prices in the past, oil was a bigger segment of the economy. A historical trend chart of the various sectors might be more illuminating.
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Perfect. I'll wait to convert my USD to CAD then.

Thanks based Amazon for E3 deals. On a side note, food prices are going to increase a lot, not a good thing for those already on a tight budget.
 
M

malfcn

Member
I wish hockey companies allowed cross shipping. Most shops are blocked from allowing US customers from buying from Canadian shops. (It's too help US shops from being hurt)
 
L

Lexxism

Member
Speaking of converting USD to CAD. Damn, should had bought a lot of USD when it was on part or 10% difference. Baddd mistakkeee
 
Sakura

Sakura

Member
beat said:
But aren't you talking about the same issue from a different focus? One is about the US recovery vs Canadian stagnation, the other is about Canadian stagnation due to oil price collapse.

Also, when is that chart from? Post-collapse? Because in a way, that only highlights the issue: with higher oil prices in the past, oil was a bigger segment of the economy. A historical trend chart of the various sectors might be more illuminating.
Click to expand...

The chart is from 2011/2012.
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Just thought about this, Nintendo NX going to be what $500 CAD and $299 USD? God help us all.
 
T

Tabris

Member
gutter_trash said:
the Canadian dollar is a petro dollar. When there was a oil price at its highest, we were at parity with the US dollar
Click to expand...

What was happening at the same time in the US when our dollar was so high (an economic recession in the US is what drove our dollar to such highs). It's not a petro dollar, that's a red herring.

Look to CAD to USD and Crude Oil spectrum over the last couple of decades, they don't start lining up until late 2000's.
 
L

LakeEarth

Member
I had an American $20 bill in my pocket for a year leftover from a Vegas trip, and converted it last month. Looks like I pulled the trigger too soon!
 
J

jstripes

Banned
entremet said:
Curious, not to familiar with Canadian politics, but was Harper bullish on oil?
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Harper's first job out of university was in the mailroom at a big Albertan oil company.

That should tell you everything.

He also passed laws muzzling every single scientist employed by the federal government.
 
M

mdubs

Banned
I would really like to see what the sales looks like for games in Canada now. If the price of new games reaches $99.99 I doubt people will be buying much of anything anymore
 
S

Silexx

Member
Tabris said:
What was happening at the same time in the US when our dollar was so high (an economic recession in the US is what drove our dollar to such highs). It's not a petro dollar, that's a red herring.

Look to CAD to USD and Crude Oil spectrum over the last couple of decades, they don't start lining up until late 2000's.
Click to expand...

Yeah, pretty much gotta agree with what Tabris has been saying here. The Canadian dollar is intrinsically tied to the US dollar. Its value is pretty much dependent on the greenback's performance.

That said, a lower Canadian, while bad from a consumer perspective, isn't necessarily an indicator of a bad economy. This may in fact open doors for manufacturing jobs which certain provinces like Ontario may reap the benefits.
 
Mr Nash

Mr Nash

square pies = communism
Silexx said:
Yeah, pretty much gotta agree with what Tabris has been saying here. The Canadian dollar is intrinsically tied to the US dollar. Its value is pretty much dependent on the greenback's performance.

That said, a lower Canadian, while bad from a consumer perspective, isn't necessarily an indicator of a bad economy. This may in fact open doors for manufacturing jobs which certain provinces like Ontario may reap the benefits.
Click to expand...

This part is debatable since we're living in a beggar thy neighbor world where a lot of countries are devaluing their currencies in order to increase exports / attract investment and manufacturing. There's a lot more competition in this regard today, which leads to more concessions and lackluster deals in order to get this stuff off the ground. Having a weak currency isn't necessarily the slam dunk for investment that some folks seem to think it is.
 
P

PumpkinSpice

Banned
witness said:
Told my wife we have to plan a vacation to Canada this year because of this. Thinking about Montreal but not sure.
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Try Halifax. It's really beautiful in the summer and small enough that you can get around on foot. And it's a short drive from there to a bunch of other great destinations in Nova Scotia (lots of great stuff within a 1 hour drive).

SQYotmt.jpg
Click to expand...
 
S

Silexx

Member
Mr Nash said:
This part is debatable since we're living in a beggar thy neighbor world where a lot of countries are devaluing their currencies in order to increase exports / attract investment and manufacturing. There's a lot more competition in this regard today, which leads to more concessions and lackluster deals in order to get this stuff off the ground. Having a weak currency isn't necessarily the slam dunk for investment that some folks seem to think it is.
Click to expand...

That's why the key work there was 'may'. :p

Obviously, nothing is in this world is guaranteed.
 
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