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CBO score on Senate GOP health bill released, 22M more uninsured relative to ACA

H

human5892

Queen of Denmark
HStallion said:
The point is GOP hubris, greed and disdain are going to hurt and kill a lot of fucking people just to save some fucking money.
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I agree with all of that. But I also think it's not smart to imply that the CBO score is some kind of death projection, which is something we've seen in this thread and elsewhere.
 
B

Brawly Likes to Brawl

Member
human5892 said:
No. Not kill. There's plenty to legitimately complain about with this bill. Let's not pretend that every single person who loses insurance will die as a direct result.
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Yeah most of those 22 million people will just have to once again deal with the weight of choosing between paying food and bills or their health expenses!
 
T

Tovarisc

Member
human5892 said:
Now that's the point we should be making.
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  • More people will straight out die because they lose access to health care professionals and meds
  • More people will struggle to pay their bills and have to pick & choose, like Brawly Likes to Brawl mentioned
  • More people will go bankrupt because of insane medical care fees
  • More people will / can opt not to have any insurance because reasons (mostly young people, I imagine)
These all points matter.
 
T

Tovarisc

Member
Senator Pat Toomey
DDVBhKIXUAA0ggd.jpg

https://twitter.com/SenToomey/status/879681368367779842
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
conpfreak said:
It's not even up to 22 million dead. You don't need to quantify the number of deaths to get the taking point access. How about just using "many" or "significant"?
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Because it is up to 22 million dead. It's a fact-based estimate with an upper bound. What's the problem?
 
S

skullmuffins

Banned
I've seen estimates for around 20,000 deaths a year. So, tens of thousands of deaths, millions of people having to choose between heathcare and paying their bills, massive increase in medical bankruptcies, etc.
 
R

Rodeo Clown

All aboard! The Love train!
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/26/republicans-obamacare-repeal-votes-239984
But Republicans in the White House and in Congress were pleasantly surprised that the bill included more savings than they expected — and are trying to figure out if they can dole it out for votes.

The Senate has about $188 billion to play with.

Among the possible changes: More spending for health savings accounts to appease conservatives such as Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Mike Lee, according to three people familiar with the matter, and some additional Medicaid and opioid spending for moderates.
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Meanwhile, senators from Medicaid expansion states huddled after the CBO score revealed the nearly $200 billion in savings to see if they could get GOP leaders to put more money into Medicaid and to thwart drug addiction. Those modifications may take place on the Senate floor, but Republicans are divided on how to use the money.
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One Senate aide said that Tuesday would be "all about side deals," and another person familiar with the discussions said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had already begun talking about private deals.
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A few billion dollars in token funding to buy off a vote to kick 22 million people off insurance. Profiles in courage.
 
T

Tovarisc

Member
The CBO says “few low-income people would purchase any plan” under GOP health bill.

But the most devastating of the CBO’s conclusions can be found on page eight. There, the Congressional Budget Office says the BCRA would make decent insurance so expensive that “few low-income people would purchase any plan” at all. Here’s the section:

"Under this legislation, starting in 2020, the premium for a silver plan would typically be a relatively high percentage of income for low-income people. The deductible for a plan with an actuarial value of 58 percent would be a significantly higher percentage of income — also making such a plan unattractive, but for a different reason. As a result, despite being eligible for premium tax credits, few low-income people would purchase any plan, CBO and JCT estimate."

A bit of background is helpful. A “silver plan” is an insurance plan that covers 70 percent of a person’s expected health care costs. Obamacare’s subsidies were designed to make silver plans affordable and to limit out-of-pocket costs. The BCRA cuts Obamacare’s subsidies and designs its own subsidies around plans that cover 58 percent of expected health care costs. Those plans, the CBO estimates, will come with deductibles of around $6,000 — which means they would bankrupt many poor people before they ever got through the deductible.

On page 27 of the report, CBO offers an illustrative example. Imagine, they say, a person who makes 75 percent of the poverty line and is currently on Medicaid. The deductible would be more than half their annual income. They would be paying for health insurance that they would destroy them financially if they tried to use it.

So here is what the CBO is saying: The BCRA’s subsidies are too small to make the silver plans affordable for low-income people, and the plans it is trying to make affordable — the ones that cover 58 percent of expected costs — carry such high deductibles that low-income Americans won’t buy them because they won’t be able to afford to use them.

This, then, is what the BRCA actually does: It makes health insurance unaffordable for poor people in order to finance a massive tax cut for rich people.
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and few more points at https://www.vox.com/health-care/2017/6/26/15876778/cbo-senate-health-bill-gop
 
Z

~ Zyzomys ~

Member
So a first world country is going to have a decreasing life expectancy. That has got to be a first!

Yet another win for your wonderful president.

I am so glad I am Canadian.
 
G

GrizzleBoy

Banned
The only CBO score many seem to care about is the:

Crush
Barack
Obama

, score.

In terms of fucking with Obama, this bill is amazing. Best CBO score ever actually!
 
T

TumblingHippo

Member
At some point people will run out of sympathy as this political climate persists. If a lot of people end up dying because of this repeal, maybe the only hope is that it takes out more of Trump's base than good people.

It sucks to feel that way but if it ends up passing what else can you do.
 
G

GrizzleBoy

Banned
TumblingHippo said:
At some point people will run out of sympathy as this political climate persists. If a lot of people end up dying because of this repeal, maybe the only hope is that it takes out more of Trump's base than good people.

It sucks to feel that way but if it ends up passing what else can you do.
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A lot of people already die/died due to the way healthcare historically works in the US.

A lot of people already lose everything they have dye to the way healthcare historically works in the US.

If that's not enough, I don't know what can be enough.
 
J

JaggedSac

Member
I haven't seen anything about this, but where is the bill at in terms of pre-existing conditions and lifetime/yearly limits?
 
D

dramatis

Member
JaggedSac said:
I haven't seen anything about this, but where is the bill at in terms of pre-existing conditions and lifetime/yearly limits?
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http://www.npr.org/sections/health-...o-wins-who-loses-with-senate-health-care-bill
Senate Draft: Better Care Reconciliation Act

Insurance companies would be required to accept all applicants regardless of health status. But the draft bill lets states ask permission to reduce required coverage, also called “essential health benefits,” which would give insurers some discretion over what they offer in their plans. That could result in “substantial increases” in costs for people who want those services, according to the CBO. Caps on annual and lifetime spending would no longer apply if the benefit is not deemed essential.
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I

I H8 Memes

Member
I know there are hints here and there that this bill might not pass but my gut tells me this time it is passing. All of their moves and soundbites tell me that this is happening but they want to make it seem maybe not likely to pass to keep people from going nuclear.

They need this to pass before they can work on their actual pet project which is tax breaks. It's going to pass.
 
T

TumblingHippo

Member
At some point it'll just be heathier to move to a country with universal health Care, if you don't die during the wait and saving up and justifying the immigration to the new place.

So... Good luck to us all
 
T

TheOctodad

Member
My wife and are make good money, are healthy, and young. This won't (in theory) affect us negatively. But...

I don't understand why that matters one bit for the average American (or anything besides the super wealthy). All it takes is a car accident or a medical condition before that hardly matters. Additionally, I just cannot grasp the "got mine" attitude. I would GLADLY give up 25% more in taxes to have universal healthcare for anyone. That's a better world for my friends, family, and future kids.

I can only dream of a world where the concerns about healthcare aren't constantly looming over your decisions. That peace of mind is worth a huge chunk of my paycheck.
 
P

PandaPandaPanda

Member
Beartruck said:
Good. Get fucked McConnell. Go back in your shell.



More or less: They're back. Hence the total uninsured rate barely changing.
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i'm still not buying into this

sure they're "against it" for now. Weren't most people saying the same thing with the House bill? I'm going to imagine a last minute amendment will be introduced if it's voted on this week to rope in the last few votes.
 
C

captive

Joe Six-Pack: posting for the common man
And then Republican Jesus said "do not care for the least among you and definitely take away their healt care"
 
W

WedgeX

Banned
Tovarisc said:
  • More people will straight out die because they lose access to health care professionals and meds
  • More people will struggle to pay their bills and have to pick & choose, like Brawly Likes to Brawl mentioned
  • More people will go bankrupt because of insane medical care fees
  • More people will / can opt not to have any insurance because reasons (mostly young people, I imagine)
These all points matter.
Click to expand...

And people without insurance will choose to use emergency rooms as their primary care, as was the case prior to the ACA. Thus clogging up emergency services further.
 
C

captive

Joe Six-Pack: posting for the common man
TheOctodad said:
My wife and are make good money, are healthy, and young. This won't (in theory) affect us negatively. But...

I don't understand why that matters one bit for the average American (or anything besides the super wealthy). All it takes is a car accident or a medical condition before that hardly matters. Additionally, I just cannot grasp the "got mine" attitude. I would GLADLY give up 25% more in taxes to have universal healthcare for anyone. That's a better world for my friends, family, and future kids.

I can only dream of a world where the concerns about healthcare aren't constantly looming over your decisions. That peace of mind is worth a huge chunk of my paycheck.
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pfft it wouldnt even take that much. I worked for an australian company and became friends with one of my coworkers form Aus. On one of his trips to the US we compared our tax rates. His tax rate was a little more than mine but he gets free government healthcare out of it. He said he and his wife pay the little bit extra to get the "private" health care so they can have like their own room at the hospital.
I'm sitting there like well what the hell are my taxes going to then, besides a shit load of military spending?
 
T

theWB27

Member
I H8 Memes said:
I know there are hints here and there that this bill might not pass but my gut tells me this time it is passing. All of their moves and soundbites tell me that this is happening but they want to make it seem maybe not likely to pass to keep people from going nuclear.

They need this to pass before they can work on their actual pet project which is tax breaks. It's going to pass.
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You know how weird it is to see a post this like there's a special time of the day that something can happen and there'll be no consequence. No matter when it passes...no matter how much of a front they put up..if it passes people will be pissed.

Maybe not likely doesn't mean anything if it actually does.
 
F

fade_

Member
PandaPandaPanda said:
i'm still not buying into this

sure they're "against it" for now. Weren't most people saying the same thing with the House bill? I'm going to imagine a last minute amendment will be introduced if it's voted on this week to rope in the last few votes.
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Ya, the moderates still didn't vote for the House bill but they had enough hardcore to ram it through. How only the hardcore are opposed because it doesn't go far enough and barely any moderates are officially opposed to the Senate one is astonishing to me.
 
S

Shadow Puppetry

Member
Americans aren't going to be pushed off by the Republicansdontcare, they're going to choose to die by not buying it.

House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) this week disputed reports that 22 million people would lose insurance under the Republican health care plan.

“What they are basically saying at the Congressional Budget Office, if you’re not going to force people to buy Obamacare, if you’re not going to force people to buy something they don’t want, then they won’t buy it,” the Speaker opined. “So, it’s not that people are getting pushed off a plan, it’s that people will choose not to buy something that they don’t like or want.”

“And that’s the difference here,” he added. “By repealing the individual and employer mandate, which mandates people buy this health insurance that they can’t afford, that they don’t like — if you don’t mandate that they’re going to do this then that many people won’t do it.”
 
kamineko

kamineko

Does his best thinking in the flying car
The best outcome for the GOP is failure in this case.

They can just blame Hillary and her "deep state."

If the GOP actually succeeds, red states will eventually realize there won't be any free rides to the hospital in a coal-powered ambulance, after all
 
T

Tahnit

Banned
Hearing more and more talk of basically all phones being clogged and almost no support from constituents for this bill. That’s good news.
 
G

gcubed

Member
David H Wong said:
What in the hell have you been reading that suggests 22 million people will die? Are you assuming that not having health insurance is instant death for a human being?

This is a terrible bill (it offers no reforms, all of the savings go to unrelated tax cuts) but ridiculous misinformation makes us look uninformed, like we're angry based on fake news. The reality is we actually have no clue how many people die from lack of health insurance, since a lack of insurance doesn't necessarily mean lack of care (you can't be turned away from emergency care, for example):

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/03/myth-diagnosis/307905/

And studies can't find that providing people with Medicaid actually gives them better health outcomes at all:

http://theweek.com/articles/678815/medicaid-terrible-republicans-fix

Insurance is great and lack of coverage is terrifying (medical bankruptcy = bad) but aren't we supposed to be the side that believes in science, data and education, instead of superstition and bullshit? Then let's hold ourselves to that higher standard.
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more apologist bullshit from you... not unexpected, but still
 
I

I H8 Memes

Member
theWB27 said:
You know how weird it is to see a post this like there's a special time of the day that something can happen and there'll be no consequence. No matter when it passes...no matter how much of a front they put up..if it passes people will be pissed.

Maybe not likely doesn't mean anything if it actually does.
Click to expand...

I'm speaking on them calming down the pre-vote phone calls, demonstrations, and public pressure. If people maybe think this isnt going through this time then there is obviously far less pressure on the senators.
 
S

skullmuffins

Banned
Shadow Puppetry said:
Americans aren't going to be pushed off by the Republicansdontcare, they're going to choose to die by not buying it.

House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) this week disputed reports that 22 million people would lose insurance under the Republican health care plan.

“What they are basically saying at the Congressional Budget Office, if you’re not going to force people to buy Obamacare, if you’re not going to force people to buy something they don’t want, then they won’t buy it,” the Speaker opined. “So, it’s not that people are getting pushed off a plan, it’s that people will choose not to buy something that they don’t like or want.”

“And that’s the difference here,” he added. “By repealing the individual and employer mandate, which mandates people buy this health insurance that they can’t afford, that they don’t like — if you don’t mandate that they’re going to do this then that many people won’t do it.”
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This is so dumb. People can "choose" to go without health insurance, but they can't choose to not get sick. Only the extremely wealthy can afford to pay for healthcare for serious illnesses without insurance - the rest of us will go bankrupt and leave others paying the bills. "Choosing" to go without insurance isn't a decision we should be applauding. If people are dropping it because it's too expensive, maybe we should try making it cheaper or ensuring coverage regardless of financial ability? Crazy, I know.
 
T

TheOctodad

Member
captive said:
pfft it wouldnt even take that much. I worked for an australian company and became friends with one of my coworkers form Aus. On one of his trips to the US we compared our tax rates. His tax rate was a little more than mine but he gets free government healthcare out of it. He said he and his wife pay the little bit extra to get the "private" health care so they can have like their own room at the hospital.
I'm sitting there like well what the hell are my taxes going to then, besides a shit load of military spending?
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Oh it definitely shouldn't be that much, I'm just saying I would gladly give it up.

I'd gladly live on much less to have guaranteed healthcare. I don't understand people who wouldn't unless they are worth millions.
 
Phoenix RISING

Phoenix RISING

Banned
captive said:
And then Republican Jesus said "do not care for the least among you and definitely take away their healt care"
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The actual Jesus did however say that the first shall be last and the last shall be first in his kingdom. While that may not be useful for your life here on Earth, he also says do not be afraid.

Excuse me while I try to actually put that into practice.
 
B

Brandon F

Well congratulations! You got yourself caught!
JaggedSac said:
I haven't seen anything about this, but where is the bill at in terms of pre-existing conditions and lifetime/yearly limits?
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Protections are softened greatly, I believe its marginalized to being more of a state-decision, so Red States get fucked hard.

Also consider that McConnell spent more time negotiating with Insurance and Interest lobbyists(than constituents and the Senate at large) while the bill was secretly being written, and you pretty much have your answer as to where loyalties lie.
 
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