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[Circana] May 2024: 1# Ghost of Tsushima, 2# Paper Mairo TYD, 3# Helldivers 2, #8 Shadow of Erdtree; PS5 #1, 2#NSW , 3# XSX

Draugoth

Gold Member
State of the market

May 2024 content spending fell 3% compared to a year ago to $3.6B, as 13% growth in Mobile content spending could not offset a 40% drop in Console content spending. (Mobile spending totals provided by Sensor Tower).


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Hardware

May video game hardware spending declined 40% when compared to a year ago, to $202M, and is now 30% lower YTD. Through May, all current generation hardware platforms are showing double-digit percentage declines year-on-year in 2024, with Switch showing the most significant drop.

PlayStation 5 again led the month’s hardware market in unit and dollar sales. Nintendo Switch once again finished 2nd in unit sales, while Xbox Series ranked 2nd in dollars.

Through each console’s first 43 months in market, PlayStation 5 unit sales lead those of PlayStation 4 by 8%, while Xbox Series trails Xbox One by 13% and remains slightly behind Xbox 360.


Software

Ghost of Tsushima was the best-selling game of May 2024 in tracked dollar sales, boosted by the release of the title on Steam during the month.

Ghost of Tsushima generated a slightly higher consumer spending total across physical and digital game sales than did physical-only sales of Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door (Nintendo is not a digital data sharing publisher).

Other new releases appearing among the top 20 best-sellers of May included Homeworld 3 (14th) and F1 24 (18th).


Mobile

Sensor Tower: Top 10 mobile games by U.S. consumer spend in May and rank change vs April: MONOPOLY GO!, Royal Match, Roblox (+1), Candy Crush Saga (-1), Last War: Survival (+1), Coin Master (-1), Whiteout Survival, Township, Brawl Stars (+5) and Jackpot Party – Casino Slots (+4).

“US mobile gaming consumer spend in May 2024 showed significant growth compared to May 2023 (+13%), though it was relatively steady month over month,” said Samuel Aune of Sensor Tower. “The biggest winner this month was Brawl Stars, growing US spend by 35% month over month."

“Brawl Stars has been surging this past year, and May 2024 was its best month by US consumer spend since its launch in December 2018. Brawl Stars' developer, Supercell, also launched the eagerly awaited Squad Busters this month,” said Aune.

“Outside of the top ten, I'd like to highlight Dice Dreams, a coin looter (the same genre as MONOPOLY GO!) which grew revenue 22% MoM to be the #22 game by US spend. This has been Dice Dreams' best month by US consumer spend since its release in 2019,” said Aune.


Accessories

May spending on Accessories dropped 8% when compared to a year ago to $148M. Headset and Headphone spending growth 10% in May when compared to a year ago was offset by a 12% dip in Gamepad spending.

The PlayStation Portal was the best-selling accessory in dollar sales for both May and 2024 year-to-date.


Software Charts


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PlayStation Platforms
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Xbox Platforms
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Nintendo Platforms
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Monthly Active User Engagement

Top 10 Games Played on PlayStation 5 Ranked by Monthly Active Users (US)

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Top 10 Games Played on Xbox Series Ranked by Monthly Active Users (US)
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Top 10 Games Played on Steam Ranked by Monthly Active Users (US)
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Rankings
Units: PS5 > NSW > XBS
Revenue: PS5 > XBS > NSW

Thanks Mat Piscatella!

NPD Archives

Source
 
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ADiTAR

ידע זה כוח
In theory, if Nintendo shared digital, maybe SPM would be first. I bought it digital (started but haven't gotten back to it).
 

nial

Member
Rise of the Ronin ahead of Dragon's Dogma 2 this month; after this and the overall Japanese sales, so much for Sony being stupid for also releasing the game on March 22nd.
Stellar Blade is a little beast, still managing to be in the top 10, while the multiplatform Devil May Cry V, in comparison, was already out of the top 20 in April 2019, after debuting at #4 the previous month.
 
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Astral Dog

Member
Rise of the Ronin ahead of Dragon's Dogma 2 this month; after this and the overall Japanese sales, so much for Sony being stupid for also releasing the game on March 22nd.
Stellar Blade is a little beast, still managing to be in the top 10, while the multiplatform Devil May Cry V, in comparison, was already out of the top 20 in April 2019, after debuting at #4 the previous month.
DMC V ended up selling 8 Million and counting

No idea what Stellar Blade can achieve,if they announce 2M this year that would be great news
 
It is very interesting to compare the top 10 best selling games on both PlayStation and Xbox and where the same game lands on each list. Elden Ring at 3 for Xbox yet it's 9 for Playstation even though it's obvious it has sold more PlayStation. Rise of the Ronin and Stellar Blade have seem to do well.
 

nial

Member
DMC V ended up selling 8 Million and counting

No idea what Stellar Blade can achieve,if they announce 2M this year that would be great news
This is only about the initial sales in the US, have to keep in mind that DMCV had very great legs and a nice boost starting late 2020, thanks to the next-gen Special Edition.
Stellar Blade can get to 5-6M units worldwide, IMO.
 
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LakeOf9

Member
Stellar Blade absolutely will not hit 5-6 million, let alone hit DMCV numbers lol

I think comparing to Bayonetta or the other platform exclusive action games gives a better idea for how it will do. I expect 2-4 million all said and done, which is a good result for a brand new $70 plaform exclusive new IP in a niche genre from a developer who has before this not made console AAA games.
 

Killjoy-NL

Member
Rise of the Ronin ahead of Dragon's Dogma 2 this month; after this and the overall Japanese sales, so much for Sony being stupid for also releasing the game on March 22nd.
Stellar Blade is a little beast, still managing to be in the top 10, while the multiplatform Devil May Cry V, in comparison, was already out of the top 20 in April 2019, after debuting at #4 the previous month.
Rule #1:

Don't take Gaf predictions seriously.

Almost always, Gaf is wrong.
 
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poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
You have to get all the way to number 8 before you get a 3rd party title. That can't be healthy, can it?
 

Loomy

Thinks Microaggressions are Real
The PlayStation Portal was the best-selling accessory in dollar sales for both May and 2024 year-to-date.
No stops on this ride

  • What happened to Hellblade 2?
Why Mat didn't mention Hellblade 2? We need some context like he did for Stellar Blade.
They had a month long advertising campaign planned and then Xbox laid off people and shut down 2 studios on Day 1 of that campaign.

Also, I'm guessing most people who played that game got it on Gamepass. Those numbers aren't reflected here.
 
You have to get all the way to number 8 before you get a 3rd party title. That can't be healthy, can it?
Kind of disingenuous, no? Like technically you could say they are all first party but what's it matter when games like CoD, Minecraft and MLB are on most/all platforms.

It just becomes a semantic thing at that point. They're essentially third party games.
 

nial

Member
I think comparing to Bayonetta or the other platform exclusive action games gives a better idea for how it will do.
While not a terrible metric, action games in the same vein of Bayo/DMC have a much bigger audience on PlayStation platforms compared to Nintendo. I mean, Bayo 2-3 very obviously suffered a lot from being exclusive to Wii U/Switch, but I won't blame Nintendo on that when they funded and produced both projects, just like SIE did with Stellar Blade.
 

LakeOf9

Member
Is there that much difference between 4 and 5m that you can be this confident and this certain about the game's performance?

Seems a bit odd to me.
I am putting the upper limit of the game at 4 million, and that's with assumed ports to PC/Xbox/Nintendo whatever.

My general guess for this game is 2-3 million.

To be clear I don't think that's a bad result at all, even DMC used to sell in this range before 4 and 5 finally took it big

While not a terrible metric, action games in the same vein of Bayo/DMC have a much bigger audience on PlayStation platforms compared to Nintendo. I mean, Bayo 2-3 very obviously suffered a lot from being exclusive to Wii U/Switch, but I won't blame Nintendo on that when they funded and produced both projects, just like SIE did with Stellar Blade.
Agreed, that's why I am giving it a higher total than the Nintendo titles (Bayo2/3 and Astral Chain all top out at 1-1.5 million, I can see this going 2x-3x that)
 
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Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Kind of disingenuous, no? Like technically you could say they are all first party but what's it matter when games like CoD, Minecraft and MLB are on most/all platforms.

It just becomes a semantic thing at that point. They're essentially third party games.

I mean it's not like all the other 7 games belong to a single company. It's 7 games that belong to 3 companies. It's more than okay.

their point was that it's not healthy for the industry, which I would agree with. Even more so when you look at #8 is a high possible acquisition for Sony. Either way more than half the top 20 is 3 companies.
 
I am putting the upper limit of the game at 4 million, and that's with assumed ports to PC/Xbox/Nintendo whatever.

My general guess for this game is 2-3 million.

To be clear I don't think that's a bad result at all, even DMC used to sell in this range before 4 and 5 finally took it big

I know.

I'm taking issue with the fact that you claim the game, "absolutely cannot hit 5-6m units", but it can hit 2-4m.

The differences in the ranges you're talking about are so small that your certainty makes no sense. Any game that could sell 2-4m could conceivably sell 5 or 6m. Surely, you're honest enough to admit that.

I mean, I could easily conclude Stellar Blade is certain to never hit 40m units sold when I'm expecting more like 3 - 4m. But to be so sure a game won't sell less than a million more than your best expectation is utterly bizarre... unless you're a soothsayer.
 

Ozriel

M$FT
Rise of the Ronin ahead of Dragon's Dogma 2 this month; after this and the overall Japanese sales, so much for Sony being stupid for also releasing the game on March 22nd.

I suspect you’d have a surprise if you looked at the relative position of both games in the YTD charts.

#3 YTD vs #17 YTD is not close at all
 

BennyBlanco

aka IMurRIVAL69
GAF vs Michael Pachter.

Who's worse at predictions?


NeoGAF wins for this alone. That first page is pure gold. Shame the thread can’t get bumped when it becomes the best selling console ever.
 
their point was that it's not healthy for the industry, which I would agree with. Even more so when you look at #8 is a high possible acquisition for Sony. Either way more than half the top 20 is 3 companies.
Sony is not acquiring FromSoftware. For that they would need to acquire Kadokawa entirely. Not impossible, but unlikely specially when most companies are now firing left and right.
 

LakeOf9

Member
I know.

I'm taking issue with the fact that you claim the game, "absolutely cannot hit 5-6m units", but it can hit 2-4m.

The differences in the ranges you're talking about are so small that your certainty makes no sense. Any game that could sell 2-4m could conceivably sell 5 or 6m. Surely, you're honest enough to admit that.

I mean, I could easily conclude Stellar Blade is certain to never hit 40m units sold when I'm expecting more like 3 - 4m. But to be so sure a game won't sell less than a million more than your best expectation is utterly bizarre... unless you're a soothsayer.
There is definitely a possibility that if it hits 4 million, it could hit 5, 6, or 7, of course.

I do not think it will happen though, hence my statement


NeoGAF wins for this alone. That first page is pure gold. Shame the thread can’t get bumped when it becomes the best selling console ever.
Meanwhile Pachter said this: https://mynintendonews.com/2016/06/...l-sell-10-million-nx-consoles-pretty-quickly/

Shame GAF 😭
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman

NeoGAF wins for this alone. That first page is pure gold. Shame the thread can’t get bumped when it becomes the best selling console ever.

The problem with the internet is that these people can sink back into the crowd and make further predictions without a big fat R branded on their face. We have to hear how the CEO's are "out of touch" from these same plebs.
 

nial

Member
I suspect you’d have a surprise if you looked at the relative position of both games in the YTD charts.

#3 YTD vs #17 YTD is not close at all
That's why I didn't jump to imply that ROTR outsold DD2 (in the US) or anything like that, that would have been extremely dumb. Ronin's great legs are what truly surprised me, though.
Agreed, that's why I am giving it a higher total than the Nintendo titles (Bayo2/3 and Astral Chain all top out at 1-1.5 million, I can see this going 2x-3x that)
I guess we will see the moment Insomniac gets hacked again in December 2030.
 

GHG

Member
What's interesting here is the fact that Ghost of Tsushima still did numbers on Steam even with the so called PSN account requirement backlash/boycott.

Ya fucked it dudes, you've got to actually follow through and put your money where your mouth is.
 
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