A Month's Worth of Crucible Data -- April 2015
I have compiled a large amount of data on Crucible kills over the last 30 days, and I wanted to share it with the community. I will apologize for the wall of words in advance, but I think you will all enjoy seeing this data. I hope to bring some tangible numbers to mesh with people's overall perceptions of the game. I want to encourage civil debate and maybe make you question what you think about the Crucible.
Methodology: I must begin with a huge shoutout to the guys at Destiny Tracker. Without their site, this project could not have happened.
Each day, I used Destiny Tracker's population statistics[1] to write down the running total of Crucible kills. I pulled the numbers each night around midnight EST in order to give me close to twenty-four hours worth of kills. I put these figures into a spreadsheet and subtracted from the previous day's total to give me that day's total kills. Then, I added each day's total and used that to make a percentage of Crucible kills by weapon type.
I must admit that Destiny Tracker does not track every player in the game, so the numbers could be off in either direction. However, given the site's popularity, I must guess that a majority of players have used it, thus making it a generally reliable source of information. With that being said, let's get on to the numbers.
Total Kills by Weapon Type (Chart 1.0): There isn't much to say about this chart. It speaks for itself.
As expected, shotguns and hand cannons lead the way, and it's not particularly close (more on that later). The biggest surprise to me was the fact that melee kills came in third, ahead of supers. From Destiny's bounty system, I would suspect this counts shoulder charges but not throwing knives.
Percentage of Kills by Crucible Type (Charts 2.1 and 2.2): This is the bread and butter of my study. I wanted to make a daily depiction of the guns people were using in the Crucible. My findings and thoughts are . . .
Shotguns -- It should not be surprising to anyone that they were this high. If anything, the figures beginning above 16% and ending above 15% might seem a tad low.
The interesting takeaway here is that Patch 1.1.2 really did nothing to change the shotgun usage. Numbers dip slightly after the patch, but there is no major change after the special ammo changes. Perks like return to sender really nullify the ammo changes, and shotguns don't really waste bullets by missing.
Six shells from one crate is enough for six kills, as people don't exactly miss at "close" shotgun range. Therefore, there's no wasting of ammo. Each shell gets a kill, and some kills even give more ammo back. Shotguns remain the go-to special weapon, beating out fusion rifles and sniper rifles combined (see Chart
3.2).
Hand Cannons -- This month saw the rise of the hand cannon. As early as 1.1.2, the hand cannon was destined to become the Crucible star, being the strongest class of primary (edging out auto rifles even as of 4/8) even before special ammo was changed.
Their usage increased when Xur sold The Last Word on the 17th. To those of you who would say "Yeah, but everything increases when Xur sells it," I ask you to look at auto rifles after SUROS and Hard Light (the 10th and 1st, respectively) and scout rifles after the MIDA-tool on the 24th. Other classes do not spike just because Xur is in town, but with The Last Word, this is exactly what happened. Bungie gave everyone a top-4 Crucible weapon (before 1.1.1, Thorn and TLW were #3 and #4 most used in the Crucible[3] , now they're probably 1 and 2, respectively, because everyone has a Thorn by now too), and it's clear that contributed to the increase in hand cannon usage.
Moreover, things got even worse during the latest Iron Banner. Hand cannons became the gun to use, finally overtaking shotguns for the top spot.
The corresponding dip in auto rifle usage during the Iron Banner is clear and decisive. If you need power, you go with a hand cannon. It is also important to note that perhaps the most popular hand cannon -- the Hawkmoon -- isn't even available to all players, so this somewhat dilutes the total we could see if one of the premier hand cannons was available to all. Hand cannons easily outclass all other primaries (see
Chart 3.1) and almost equal the other three primary classes combined.
The thing to think about here is a possible nerf. Remember, Bungie nerfed the auto rifles when they reached 19% of Crucible kills (only looking at the top one-half of players), and hand cannons are very close.
Bungie made a point of discussing auto rifle increases during the Iron Banner, and given what we've seen recently, it is very much the same case with hand cannons now. I would be very weary of an impending hand cannon nerf.
Heavy Weapons -- The heavy weapon kills are interesting because they seem to show that Bungie missed the mark with their well-intended heavy ammo changes. As guardians no longer drop heavy and heavy ammo now disappears after time or death, it is imperative to get heavy ammo and keep it.
Guardians get more bang for their bucks using an LMG rather than a rocket launcher (see Chart 3.3). Especially when an LMG has field scout, one can have heavy ammo for a long time if he manages to stay alive. Once the initial fray is over, whoever can survive with heavy ammo will have the upper hand.
Bungie explicitly stated they didn't want heavy to last a long time, but they've given people heavy weapons with perks that directly counteract their wishes. That's the explanation for LMGs being much more effective in the Crucible than rocket launchers.
Special Weapons, Generally -- In general, special weapons have all been unaffected by the 1.1.2 ammo changes. Even on top of shotguns, snipers and fusion rifles have not seen precipitous dips in usage due to ammo changes.
This, too, must be due to perks like return to sender, clown cartridge, and other ammo-granting perks. Just because you can't get ammo from boxes doesn't mean you'll always be without it. Bungie's 1.1.2 changes really did not affect special weapons at all, and the chart shows it. In the trend lines, sniper and pulse rifles are almost flat, and shotguns are only a tiny bit downward-sloping. Special ammo changes have missed their mark.
Fusion Rifles -- I believe the main change we see in fusion rifles is due to the Vex being affected by the fusion rifle changes. It gets less ammo, and it is less stable. People stopped using it, but I think they're making a comeback. It was the #2 most poplar Crucible weapon before it accidentally (and I would say rightfully) nerfed, but Bungie said they'd fix it. Also, the cone pattern was changed and the range affected, which hurt them. Finally,
fusion rifles got relegated to second-citizen status due to shotguns. You can't use both at one time (except for UR and Vex). People chose shotguns. I think they'll jump back when the Vex is back, but as a class, they can't touch shotguns.
Supers -- This is really puzzling. Why are supers continuing to dip? I have spoken with friends about this, and it is really unclear. Is it due to panic supers only killing one person? Is it due to shotguns and heavy weapons killing off would-be super machines, thus stopping the vicious cycle of orbs? Are people just foolishly using them? Supers continually trended downward, and it is astonishing.
Pulse Rifles -- Even with the initial burst, pulse rifles have not gained a lot of traction in the Crucible. Xur sold the Red Death, but they are still not the weapon of choice for many PVPers. The numbers are still low on them (below 6%).
Scout Rifles -- This one is simple: why use a scout rifle when you can use a hand cannon for the same range?
Auto Rifles -- Bungie claims ARs are 25% of Crucible kills[4] , but that seems unfathomable. ARs started falling back at 1.1.1, and they're less half the amount of hand cannons on my charts.
SUROS is really the only truly viable auto rifle at this point.
Perks -- Do weapon perks make Crucible changes impossible to implement? Given the statistics, it appears that any Crucible changes Bungie makes will have to directly impact the weapon classes, not ammo. The perks on many weapons -- specials and heavies, but also primaries -- have a huge impact on the way the Crucible works. The perks are often more important than the weapon's base stats and usability. This cannot be allowed to be the case. You aim and shoot a gun, not its perks. Additionally,
with the ability to re-roll all upcoming House of Wolves legendaries, I think we will see a lot of what we see with Felwinter's Lies: people rolling for specific perks in order to all make the same gun. Thus, each weapon class will have its go-to that you re-roll for specific perks, leading to even less variety than we currently see. It's the opposite to what Bungie wants from the Crucible, and it's all because of weapon perks. But this takes us back to one of the central questions about Destiny: how can Bungie manage perks' effects in the Crucible without altering them for worse in PVE activities? There is no divide (except in Old Russia), so how will Bungie manage Crucible change going forward?