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[ADiTAR]

It never is funny that Americans think they are the epitome of everything. They put out shitty games they get shitty sales, they f themselves with the DEI hires.

Japan, China, Korea and Europe are having a good time.

 

[Clear]

Eh. A Chinese game with a monkey man just sold over 20 million copies.

And what proportion of that came from its domestic market ?

We know sales were certainly heavily skewed towards PC, because at the time when its 20million sales were being trumpeted about it was only available on PC and PS5. Yes, Wukong was #1 on Playstation in August when it launched, but a month later is was #5, and by October it was out of the top 10.

This isn't the sales trajectory of COD or other massive franchise.

It kinda bugs me the way people cherry-pick metrics when they support their argument, but don't even do a superficial analysis of what that metric is actually indicating.

Sales usually directly correlate to gameplay quality, visuals and marketing.

Fixed that for you.

 

[Three]

The game industry has a problem with self confidence. It's always chasing models and businesses outside its sphere that are usually at the expense of its core business. TV Box. Phone gaming. Netflix. Now it's subscription over saturation in the era of subscription fatigue.

Where has it led? 100 dollar games in an industry that's purposely devalued its product through the subscription model and a free to play graveyard. Things could be better.

It chases those models because most of the consumers do. It chases those models because that's where the players are spending their money. Complaining about the latest AAA single player release and how they're not like "the good ol days" while playing some handful of tentpole GaaS/f2p games and spending on mtx. It is what it is.

 

[Felessan]

You would be dead wrong

Rockstar pulls roughly half a billion yearly since 2013 from GTA online

That's revenue
And these games running cost is huge (don't believe 20m, those numbers are bullshit), Fortnite for example costs around half a billion per year to run and GTA, given it's size, probably at least 200m a year. Live service games are no joke both in profits AND in costs.

It's clearly visible in financial report where T2 is in red most of the time, hardly possible if GTAO would be highly profitable. And remember, GTA6 cost to development is expenses but not a loss, so T2 can't get profitable even with running GTA5 sales and GTAO revenue when GTA6 expenses temporarily put aside.

 

[Angry_Megalodon]

It chases those models because most of the consumers do. It chases those models because that's where the players are spending their money. Complaining about the latest AAA single player release and how they're not like "the good ol days" while playing some handful of tentpole GaaS/f2p games and spending on mtx. It is what it is.

Give something unique to people and they will buy it. See Expedition 33. See Silksong, one of the most anticipated games of the decade. See Bloodborne (remake, 2, or whatever). People aren't wishing for the next Fornite wannabe. Fortnite was also unique, back in the day.

Blaming people for poor creative decisions is all levels of wrong. Precisely, the success of Mihoyo was bringing something NEW to the table, a truly AAA F2P game, something unheard of till that date. Those were the trend-setters, not trend-chasers. Quite the opposite.

In short, that dude is wrong. It's a creative problem, nothing more.

 

[PlayStaytion]

Xbox is pretty bad that is why it lost the war, but Sony PS is also one of the worse case of gaming slowly dying. Exclusives becoming multiplatform, gaas and live service failure, losing the Japan, price increase, dei and woke infestation, etc. More L's. Sony PS, L streak continues. Sony PS has very patient and loyal fans especialy in the west that is why its surviving but it is running out. In Japan, Sony PS5 is dead and lost the love of Japanese gamers especially after closing Japan studio and moving to california head quarters and lack of good A and AA exclusives. Such a pity because ps5 is a very good hardware and I like console looks and capability. This Sony head especially the california influence is slowly killing PS brand and console.

Imagine all these people know how to make good games.

 

[poodaddy]

Unpopular opinion: The games industry will be just fine, and is not collapsing.

I don't think it's gonna collapse at all.

I just think it's fuckin shit now.

 

[Felessan]

In Japan, Sony PS5 is dead and lost the love of Japanese gamers especially after closing Japan studio and moving to california head quarters and lack of good A and AA exclusives.

Yeah, sure
In that logic Japanese gamers just stopped playing altogether
Because not only Playstation sales are low, even games are greatly reduced, game sales are like 1/3 of what they were 10 years ago, especially for non-Nintendo games. And many AA franchises left the business altogether. PC are also had outflux of players.

But market by money spent didn't really contracted all this years, so maybe a reason lies elsewhere?

 

[digimaster7]

Nobody said that Sony would be good at it. Some executive was thinking this is CHEAP investment to get the next Star Wars! Never forget that.

Guys watch the video, he explains the pattern of these huge success games. That's what is making executives have erections for GAAS. Not that they won't fuck it up or fumble around trying to win it. Like slot machines you can end up shitting in your diapers trying your chance again and you lost everything, but you saw some woman walk out with huge sum of money! It's your chance soon! Maybe.

the keyword is to at least have a chance. You don't have a chance in the first place with characters like concord.

No one's sane with a working brain for face recognition is gonna buy a figurine of emari or the fat medic (forgot the name)

 

[Tobimacoss]

He joined Bend 2022 so after Days gone actually, when he got in it was the opposite of what he wanted to do as a game developer, the studio was chasing GAAS, he most likely was on Bend's cancelled live-service open world new IP game that was building on days gone's open-world systems.

(Acelora also makes amazing programming videos, that's where I found him initially)

Its a long one, sorry about that, but imo really passed fast and he makes a journey from early 2000's, DLCs, mobile, gacha, etc, to modern GAAS and what led to why every goddamn corporate executives wanted a piece of it.




The slot machine comparison is exactly why publishers chased it.

On the left the modern AAA single player machine
On the right the GAAS jackpot

Problem is they try their luck at pulling the right machine multiple times due to low costs and short lead times in the hope of having a single jackpot. That single jackpot would offset all your failures.

Anyone playing with their money at the casino would also pick the right one. That's clearly what Sony bet on big time this gen.

Those numbers don't make any sense. Any Live service multiplayer only games is still going to be 3-4 years work and $100 million. And it isn't possible to hit $10 billion, even for the most successful live service.

So if it costs $100 million, and makes one billion, that would be 10 times the revenue.

Didn't Concord cost $400 million? Marathon isn't cheap either. Investing into Live Service isn't the issue, Sony invested into the wrong kind of Live Service games.

Instead of Factions 2, or even Days Gone, they went with Concord, and a God of War live service....

HellDivers 2 is the only one they have handled properly but they almost screwed that up to his the Steam controversy. But the Xbox collaboration is good start to course correct.

 

[PurePlatinum]

Markets cater to what customers want.

The problem is that what most players want (ever expanding scope and fidelity with no increase in price) is unsustainable. It's as simple as that.

 

[Ozriel]

If you didn't like my post you shouldn't have read it.

That's not how this works brah

 

[Angry_Megalodon]

Markets cater to what customers want.

The problem is that what most players want (ever expanding scope and fidelity with no increase in price) is unsustainable. It's as simple as that.

People never asked for this and Nintendo is the best proof of it. Companies cornered themselves into creating an artificial need, because it's easier to market technical improvements than game design innovations, which take actual creativity.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Gaming seems to have skewed hard to more shooters and GAAS games.

But downfall of gaming?

Depends which side of fence someone is on. Maybe some gamers love F2P, some like Fortnite and FIFA, some devs like making shooters, some like smartphone gaming, and any company that is successful likes it as it rakes in the cash. Someone who fits any of these probably loves gaming.

Of course a Bend studio guy would hate it. Bend has historically made SP games and whatever they got in works has been delayed or cancelled since DG released in 2019. So they got to start over in hopes what they are doing is fine enough so the studio doesnt get canned by the execs.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Markets cater to what customers want.

The problem is that what most players want (ever expanding scope and fidelity with no increase in price) is unsustainable. It's as simple as that.

Also when there's some fad going on, you got 50 companies all trying to make the same thing. By the time they all release, it looks like a shotgunned concentration of the millionth similar game coming out. Like all the Souls-like games that have come out the past bunch of years.

 

[Edgelord79]

Bend employees or former employees seem to complain a lot or at least it seems like it.

As for the actual message, well it's kind of redundant at this point. GasS are going to be needed to fund larger open world single player games as they get more complicated unfortunately. The Bobby Kotick's of the world are not interested in games without a long term revenue models and monetization. This means triple AAA studios will have to largely transition to GaaS and/or annualized franchises to survive in the future with much smaller teams focusing on the "creative" and single player games they want to make. I hate this.

Want your single player fix? Outside of select developers, it's going to be largely AA or indie I think.

 

[Buggy Loop]

That's revenue
And these games running cost is huge (don't believe 20m, those numbers are bullshit), Fortnite for example costs around half a billion per year to run and GTA, given it's size, probably at least 200m a year. Live service games are no joke both in profits AND in costs.

In what world does GTA online continue to have high costs when its stagnated and with shark cards that have been established for nearly a decade? They aren't making Fortnite season passes

Revenue, yes, they are rolling in dough because there's no development for GTA online to speak of.

It's clearly visible in financial report where T2 is in red most of the time,

Hello GTA 6 development costs

hardly possible if GTAO would be highly profitable. And remember, GTA6 cost to development is expenses but not a loss,

How is GTA 6 costs of development not a loss? Makes no sense. They are >$1B in dev costs. Sure there's money coming in T2 and Rockstar from other assets, but until GTA 6 is sold, this is a drain on all metrics of a financial report.

Of course they are under a huge development debt until they can sell the game. They know of course they make the money back in like a month of sales, but right now its red.

 

[Humdinger]

This means triple AAA studios will have to largely transition to GaaS and/or annualized franchises to survive in the future with much smaller teams focusing on the "creative" and single player games they want to make. I hate this.

Want your single player fix? Outside of select developers, it's going to be largely AA or indie I think.

Yeah, I think that's the way it'll go. Mostly.

 

[mckmas8808]

He joined Bend 2022 so after Days gone actually, when he got in it was the opposite of what he wanted to do as a game developer, the studio was chasing GAAS, he most likely was on Bend's cancelled live-service open world new IP game that was building on days gone's open-world systems.

(Acelora also makes amazing programming videos, that's where I found him initially)

Its a long one, sorry about that, but imo really passed fast and he makes a journey from early 2000's, DLCs, mobile, gacha, etc, to modern GAAS and what led to why every goddamn corporate executives wanted a piece of it.




The slot machine comparison is exactly why publishers chased it.

On the left the modern AAA single player machine
On the right the GAAS jackpot

Problem is they try their luck at pulling the right machine multiple times due to low costs and short lead times in the hope of having a single jackpot. That single jackpot would offset all your failures.

Anyone playing with their money at the casino would also pick the right one. That's clearly what Sony bet on big time this gen.

But the one on the right it harder to hit the jackpot on. Plus........why must all AAA games take 8 years and $200 million? Can't some be 4 years and $80 Million?

 

[Buggy Loop]

But the one on the right it harder to hit the jackpot on. Plus........why must all AAA games take 8 years and $200 million? Can't some be 4 years and $80 Million?

Peoples are hung up on the slot machine image and I shouldn't have posted it, because in the video he goes over all of it. I can pretty much spot everyone in the thread who have not gone through the video just by the replies.

"some might think this is a ridiculous thought exercise, but this is basically what you show to shareholders to make them happy. So it makes sense why many games have evolved into some sort of live service monster. For the cost of one The Last of us 2 you could instead make like 10 overwatches and from the 10 overwatches you could make 80 more overwatches. Ultimately, this is just that, a thought exercise and does not translate to reality, but game dev executives would try anyways "

 

[mckmas8808]

Peoples are hung up on the slot machine image and I shouldn't have posted it, because in the video he goes over all of it. I can pretty much spot everyone in the thread who have not gone through the video just by the replies.

"some might think this is a ridiculous thought exercise, but this is basically what you show to shareholders to make them happy. So it makes sense why many games have evolved into some sort of live service monster. For the cost of one The Last of us 2 you could instead make like 10 overwatches and from the 10 overwatches you could make 80 more overwatches. Ultimately, this is just that, a thought exercise and does not translate to reality, but game dev executives would try anyways "

Oh thanks LOL! Because the second I saw that image, I couldn't read or watch anything. It's so insane, that I blacked out and just responded to the image in the OP.

The fact that this through exercise even attempt to use this way of thinking as a pitch to shareholders makes me sad. I pray that the Chinese and Japanese devs CRUSH the devs in the West for the next 5 years if things keep going in this direction.