Feeling a little guilty that I'll probably roll on the Gilgamesh banner for a chance at Berserker Lancelot.
I understand that generally if you pull a 4 or 5* servant on a banner, it's likely to be a banner character rather than an off-banner one due to the low draw rate for those rarities, but can anyone with more experience with the Japanese version give me a general idea of how rare 4*s are on banners?
I don't really want any of the other characters on this banner including Gil himself, but aside from the 'Da Vinci-chan's Choice' banner which I'm not even certain we'll get due to its irrelevance, Berserker Lancelot doesn't appear on any other banners outside of the 'Fate/Zero Accel prep' one several months ahead.
Basically what I'm asking is - is there any good general rule for pulling like - 'Have 500 SQ if you're looking for a 5*'.
Gatcha rates (checkable in game, theres a button near the summon)
★ Servant Craft Essence
5 1% 4%
4 3% 12%
3 40% 40%
So 1 % for 5* , 3% for 4%. Expected value is therefore 1 5* every 100 rolls, and its 3 quartz per roll so 300 quartz. That said, the variance is really high, and a 100 rolls is a small sample size (relatively speaking) so be prepared. (1 - 0.01)^100 = 0.366, so you have a 36.6% chance of not getting a 5* after a hundred rolls. Or to put it another way, roll a dice, and if you get 1 or 2, you don't get a 5* Servant with your 300 quartz.
Also, rate up is i think a 70% chance to get the servant advertised, so its probably lower than that.
This is why rerolling is pretty much a F2Pers only chance of guaranteeing a 5* that you want, so if you really want Jeanne/Waver (or Gil with the upcoming banner), its probably better to bite the bullet and reroll.
