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[CuthbertAllgoodz]

After phase 4 it's saving time for Lulu's hairpin and doll! Yea yea, setting myself up for disappointment.

 

[keiichi]

Best pull so far!

Tyrfing [Luneth]
Rune Axe [Golbez]
Dusk Lance [Kimahri]

half off pulls has pulled me back in the game

 

[Red Mage]

Red XIII MC get! Now I'll go back to phase 4 grinding until even ends. I'll try Jenova Death once Cloud is 80.

Dayum Cloud has an even better SSB now?

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6zvyzzHyNgk

Yep and if you use it as a RW summon, the character who summoned him gets the barrage like attack options.

 

[PixyJunket]

I got Vaan's relic.

So 3/44, under the mathematical average but I got two REALLY useful Soul Breaks (maybe three? I hear this Sap thing can be pretty good). And I got a 5★ from the daily draw this week, so that's a thing.

 

[Vorpal]

Happened to tons of people today including me. Turning airplane mode on and off after closing the app works for me.

That fixed it. Thanks!

Glorious phase 4! I've got 75 mythril with this phase's number(?) written on it. Give me every Wind Orb ever please and thank you

 

[Xetherion]

Don't know if anyone already posted this, but it's confirmed you can stay in a previous phase of the Orb dungeon if you don't complete it. Been running stage 1 of phase 3 orb dungeon for past couple hours now. Wish I could stay in it til the event ends but I still need to finish bonus battles in Cloud event.

 

[PixyJunket]

Tyrfing [Luneth]
Rune Axe [Golbez]

Mad jelly. Congrats.

 

[Falk]

Pretty sure after the event ends you're gonna get the usual "event has ended" message and get kicked out anyway.

 

[Xetherion]

I know that's what would happen Falk. That's why I wish I could

stay in it til the event ends

But the event ends at the same time as Cloud's event i'm pretty sure, and I need to do the bonus battles before that event ends.

I'm probably going to be kicked out tomorrow morning anyway after the date change.

Just realized I also need to do Phase 4 at least once just for the completion mythril as well.

 

[The_Endless]

Phase 4 has been my best 11-pull yet.

Pretty good haul overall for the Orbfest, though curiously FFVI heavy!
Got me a:
Soul Sabre - Celes
Kiku-Ichimonji - Cyan
Minerva Bustier - Terra
Partisan - Edgar
Ras Algethi - Balthier
Golden Armor - Leon


Edit:
Falk, you're insane. A good insane, but still insane.

 

[Falk]

Screw the Mythril, one Power/Wind/NE 5* Orb for mastery is where it's at hahahah.

 

[PixyJunket]

I did some dirty math/guessing and figured I would have enough Mythril for ONE eleven pull after Orb Fest (and keeping me ready at 250 for next Soul Break Celebration).

Any suggestions? I was thinking the next VIII banner since there seem to be a lot of VIII events and I have nothing notable there yet (while I have at least one 5★ for IV, VI, VII, X, XII and XIII).

 

[Falk]

It's also a SSB banner, so you could pray hard.

 

[PixyJunket]

It's also a SSB banner, so you could pray hard.

I don't need to pray. My hate for Squawk Kittenheart practically guarantees I get something awesome for him so I'm forced to use him a lot.

 

[Wazzy]

I don't need to pray. My hate for Squawk Kittenheart practically guarantees I get something awesome for him so I'm forced to use him a lot.

You need Jesus.

Imma pray for you.

 

[Kenai]

I don't need to pray. My hate for Squawk Kittenheart practically guarantees I get something awesome for him so I'm forced to use him a lot.

This is my genuine fear with Snowe and I am quite unhappy the Vegas are on the second banner in the upcoming FF13 event. If I pulled on that and got his instead I might go into a catatonic state from the salt I'd generate.

Then again I'd get some use out of it sacrificing it immediately to the augment gods.

I did some dirty math/guessing and figured I would have enough Mythril for ONE eleven pull after Orb Fest (and keeping me ready at 250 for next Soul Break Celebration).

Any suggestions? I was thinking the next VIII banner since there seem to be a lot of VIII events and I have nothing notable there yet (while I have at least one 5★ for IV, VI, VII, X, XII and XIII).

I think the FFV event looks pretty nice. Aren't all of those characters pretty high tier also?

 

[chronobeej]

Did my lucky pull and got the Cyclone Grimoire and the Wild Bear. Not what I wanted but at least I got another light armor.

 

[Wazzy]

This is my genuine fear with Snowe and I am quite unhappy the Vegas are on the second banner in the upcoming FF13 event. If I pulled on that and got his instead I might go into a catatonic state from the salt I'd generate.

Then again I'd get some use out of it sacrificing it immediately to the augment gods.

It's funny because the only characters I actually heavily dislike are Snow, Lightning(XIII one is okay but boring) and Tifa.

Getting any of their SB's would be sad but getting Tifa's would extra sad lol

 

[Kenai]

It's funny because the only characters I actually heavily dislike are Snow, Lightning(XIII one is okay but boring) and Tifa.

Getting any of their SB's would be sad but getting Tifa's would extra sad lol

Hope's general hatred of Snow and the hilariously awkward pairing of them 10? hours in carried me through that part of the game.

People might butt heads on who they dislike the most from FF13, but Hope's alright by me for that reason alone.

 

[PixyJunket]

You need Jesus.

Imma pray for you.

This made me happy.

I think the FFV event looks pretty nice. Aren't all of those characters pretty high tier also?

I tend to think of it in terms of utility. IV, VI, VII, VIII and X seems to be heavily favored by DeNa. Good 5★ is those realms will service you well in many events.

V is my favorite Final Fantasy (removing childhood nostalgia from IV and VI), but we're seven months in and had ONE event in that realm.

 

[Advocatus Diaboli]

Alright! Thanks, Lucky Draw:

- Yoshimitsu
- Sun Blade
- Shimmering Blade
- OAK STAFF (!! Finally, a rod!)
- Cyclone Grimoire (Tyro...)
- Heroic Scarf (...Mog...)

All in all, I'm satisfied. Are Mog and Thancred worth using, at all? Or should I just be happy that I've got another 5* dagger and that I finally have something to replace my Light Rod?

 

[NeoForte]

Got my first mage relic! Double Terra's Enhancer! Should I combine them or leave one for Celes to use as well?

 

[Lights and Waves]

Running through the orb dungeons to get the 3 mythril I need for my pull

 

[Balphon]

Got my first mage relic! Double Terra's Enhancer! Should I combine them or leave one for Celes to use as well?

If you have a bunch of 5* mage weapons you could combine them, but there are a decent number of other mages that can use swords (Celes, Ashe, Golbez, Gordon).

 

[AdawgDaFAB]

Uggggg. 1/44 total after this pull. The only 5* I got was Minerva Bustier.

I think I went 1/44 for 5*, 11/44 for 4* and 32/44 for 3*. V__V

 

[Curry-Hakase]

I pulled Sazh's Vega!
If anyone needs Boon feel free to add me:

eSfG

I want to bump off some of my inactive followers.

 

[Lights and Waves]

I got Thancreed's magic coat thingy.

 

[Czarcasm]

Lucky Draws went ok for me.
My 5*s were

Phase I - Lustrous Shield (IV)
Phase II - Polymorph Rod (IV)
Phase III - Runeblade (XII), Kaiser Knuckles (VI), Diamond Pin (VII)
Phase IV - Binding Rod (XIII), Tyrfing (III)

 

[firehawk12]

Uggggg. 1/44 total after this pull. The only 5* I got was Minerva Bustier.

I think I went 1/44 for 5*, 11/44 for 4* and 32/44 for 3*. V__V

You Falked.

 

[AdawgDaFAB]

You Falked.

At least Falk had tons of Mythril for the Orb Fest. I've barely gotten much from there and I'm now completely out of Mythril. I wish I wouldn't have given into the pulls and saved them for STA refreshes instead. I'm so angry right now.

 

[Falk]

You Falked.

Naaaah, while I sympathize, you only Falked if you went 0 0 0 1.

 

[Stumpokapow]

You Falked.

to be fair you're 5 times more likely to Falk than to get 0 for 44...

... of course you're twice as likely to get 2/44 than to Falk.

But still, 1 in every 20 players got Falked.

 

[firehawk12]

So there's the natural Falk and the technical Falk.

And to be fair, I've Falked on paid draws... and those actually cost money. lol

Heck, we're all likely to get Falked at some point playing this game.

 

[Falk]

to be fair you're 5 times more likely to Falk than to get 0 for 44...

... of course you're twice as likely to get 2/44 than to Falk.

But still, 1 in every 20 players got Falked.

Um.

2.165% chance to roll 1 out of 44. Or 1 out of 46 players.

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

That aside, looking at it from a non probability distribution way, that's also not exactly getting Falk'ed which is 0/0/0/1 rather than any other of the three combinations. Getting Falked means 1/4th of 2.165%

0/0/0/1 is literally the worst outcome. It teases you with a straight 0/0/0/0 (which would have been awesome. Schadenfreude, but still awesome), yet denies you it with the absolute worst possible amount of 5*s (e.g. it's worse than 0/0/0/2 and above)

 

[johnsmith]

This is incredible. Ramza's SB.

https://ffrk-movie.static.sp.mbga.jp/soul_strike/15000100/20151028_7_64GQTnuQ8.mp4

 

[firehawk12]

Um.

2.165% chance to roll 1 out of 44. Or 1 out of 46 players.

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

That aside, looking at it from a non probability distribution way, that's also not exactly getting Falk'ed which is 0/0/0/1 rather than any other of the three combinations. Getting Falked means 1/4th of 2.165%

0/0/0/1 is literally the worst outcome. It teases you with a straight 0/0/0/0 (which would have been awesome. Schadenfreude, but still awesome), yet denies you it with the absolute worst possible amount of 5*s (e.g. it's worse than 0/0/0/2 and above)

Well, in 5 months, I hope you get the perfect Falk!

 

[Mental Atrophy]

Pretty satisfied with the lucky draw special, getting two-ish standout items for Sazh and Yuna.

Phase 1: Vega 42s (Sazh, Boon), Lullaby Rod (Yuna, Hymn of Fayth)
Phase 2: Wild Bear (Snow, Frost Strike)
Phase 3: Nothing! But I was able to combine a 4++ Giant's Axe (FF5), 4++ Empyrean Rod (FF12), and a 4++ Black Robe (FF4)... so still productive.
Phase 4: Buster Sword (Cloud, Braver), Vega 42s (Sazh, Boon)

For at least the short term, I intend to keep the Vega 42s separate, so that I have two 5-star weapons for Lightning and Sazh next week. The only dud is Buster Sword, I think, but that's primarily because I already have great FF7 weapons so a fourth 5-star sword is kind of redundant, but it will still be nice to give Cloud a real limit break. I had intended to save mythril for the upcoming Hope event because I was lacking in FF13 items, but that was before we knew about this Lucky Draw thing. Worked out anyway because I got three FF13 items.

 

[Balphon]

This is incredible. Ramza's SB.

https://ffrk-movie.static.sp.mbga.jp/soul_strike/15000100/20151028_7_64GQTnuQ8.mp4

If it were legit he'd have to spend 20 minutes spamming Yell first.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Um.

2.165% chance to roll 1 out of 44. Or 1 out of 46 players.

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

0.1 probability of success on single trial (10% 5*), 44 trials, 1 success; P(X=1) = 0.047. Am I wrong about 10% or something?

That aside, looking at it from a non probability distribution way, that's also not exactly getting Falk'ed which is 0/0/0/1 rather than any other of the three combinations. Getting Falked means 1/4th of 2.165%

Yes, if you count order, it'd be 1/4th of that or around 1.2% chance.

 

[Jyrii]

My last Lucky Draw:

5*
- Sentinel's Grimoire
- Shear Trigger
- Yoshimitsu

4*
2x Giant's Axe

 

[LossLess009]

Ended the 4 phases pulls with 3/44:
Golbez's Axe
Shield Grimoire
Cyclone Grimoire

I won't complain, cause 2 out of 3 are definitely useful!

Still, it would be nice to be on or above the curve sometime; while playing since week 1 I am severely lacking (read, not a single natural 5*) in the weapons department in EVERY realm except VI and VII.

 

[AdawgDaFAB]

Naaaah, while I sympathize, you only Falked if you went 0 0 0 1.

Going 0 0 1 gave me false hope that my crap luck would turn around. Instead I was soul crushed by using my final mythril to go back to 0 again.

 

[firehawk12]

Going 0 0 1 gave me false hope that my crap luck would turn around. Instead I was soul crushed by using my final mythril to go back to 0 again.

On the bright side, the disappointment was half off this time around.

 

[Falk]

0.1 probability of success on single trial (10% 5*), 44 trials, 1 success; P(X=1) = 0.047. Am I wrong about 10% or something?

it's 12% since a banner before Lucky Draw, which Lucky Draw then inherited.

Going 0 0 1 gave me false hope that my crap luck would turn around. Instead I was soul crushed by using my final mythril to go back to 0 again.

OK running out on Mythril on that increases it by an order of magnitude. I'm passing you the crown.

:'(

 

[Nohar]

My reaction this morning:

The reason why:

I got everything I ever wanted during the lucky draws. Everything:

• Needed more mage weapons: got Rising Sun (Linoa) and Lullaby Rod (Yuna).
• Needed AoE healing: got Lullaby Rod, Healing Grimoire (olol) and Y'sthola's robe.
• I wanted Organics: got Organics.
• Wanted ranged weapons: I have now one of every kind (Fran's Bow, two guns, Rising Sun).
• Wanted better armors: got Shinra Helmet and Y'shtola robe.
• Wanted Vega (for Hastega - also, I like Sazh): got Vega.

After 4 x11 pulls with absolutly no 5* (or that accursed Genji Shield), RNGesus smiled upon me.

 

[Falk]

So at the risk of causing people to quit (lol) since wounds still fresh, envy still rampant, etc. I decided to take a look at the state of my union, even if I'd already more or less figured I'd be fine up to the anniversary event.

Natural 5s:

Mage Masher (IX)
Danjuro (XII)
Zantetsuken+ (VI)
Buster Sword (VII)
Blitz Sword (VIII)
Betrayal Sword (VIII)
Diamond Sword (IX)
Kaiser Knuckles (XIII)
Binding Rod (XIII)
Hunter's Rod+ (XIII)
Polymorph Rod (IV)
Judgement Staff (V)
Lominisan Bow (XIV)

Emerald Shield (X)
Gold Hairpin (IV)
Gold Hairpin (IV)
Keepsake Ribbon (VII)
Dark Helm (IV)
Regal Gown (VI)
Edincoat (VII)

Total: 22
Total Weapons: 15
Total Armor: 7

Unique SB
Buster Sword, Binding Rod, Polymorph Rod, Keepsake Ribbon

Shared SB
Mage Masher (Magic Buster), Hunter's Rod+ (Thunder Trap), Betrayal Sword (Darkest Cut), Dark Helm (Dark Shot)

I'm still planning to primarily run mage meta (this was the plan ever since I managed to pull decent mage armor). My item progression for mage meta hasn't really improved since Dark Bahamut (outside of Keepsake Ribbon lol) but it hardly matters because of the maths involved. Planet Protector opens up some physical crunk lineups, but is a lot more realm-synergy-dependent. Still an OK pickup.

What I seem to be severely lacking, though, are defensive shared SBs. Anything from Shellga/Protectga/Heals/etc which would allow me to stick them on characters with stinker SBs like Rydia or Yuna, and to help solve my mitigation issue without taking up a slot or two for Protectga/Shellga or pigeonholing me into requiring LH/Boon for friend summon.

I'll probably try to save for a banner where 2 or more of these items are present. Other than that, I think I'm set all the way up to SSBFest.

Also for the heck of it, a list of my 4++s which are very, very close to 5* within realm synergy

Cat Claws++ (II)
Maneater++ (VI)
Mesmerize Blade++ (VIII)
Warrior's Sword++ (X)
Rune Axe++ (V) (lol)
Metal Knuckle++ (VII)

Royal Crown++ (VI)
Red Jacket++ (VI)
Diamond Armor++ (VI)
Black Robe++ (IV)
Crystal Bangle++ (VII)

edit: Far better state than the previous time I did a tally where I had a hilarious grand total of 2 5* armor and 2 unique soul breaks after playing for 4 months.

 

[broz0rs]

Got two more 5* relics for the final lucky draw.

In total I got 8/44

Rune Axe
Grand Glove
Guard Stick
Ice Whip
Sentinel's Grimoire
Dark Armor
Minerva Bustier
Y'shtola's Robe

Prior to the event, I only had two uniques so I'm very happy with the result. Sad to see the event end

 

[LucaMac]

Gutted that I couldn't spend the time required with the orb fest. Especially phase 3. Phone died prior to orbfest (same happened with last festival of gold, I'm cursed) Only burned 10 mythril as I was using Bluestacks and had limited access. Only got 6 greater summon orbs from farming. Billions of 3 stars and surprisingly 4 0r 5 major summon orbs.

On another note my fear of getting no 5 stars this time around on the lucky draw abated. GOt two. One was Leons armour again (Got one on phase one) and the second I was sure was keepsake ribbon in the thumbnail and I nearly vomited with excitement seeing as how it would stack...

...Mogs scarf.

EDIT: I assume best practice would be to keep Leons armour seperate? Mogs scarf is just defense too though. Disgusted because I thought it could have upped his usefulness as a mage.

 

[Kenai]

I tend to think of it in terms of utility. IV, VI, VII, VIII and X seems to be heavily favored by DeNa. Good 5★ is those realms will service you well in many events.

V is my favorite Final Fantasy (removing childhood nostalgia from IV and VI), but we're seven months in and had ONE event in that realm.

That's a good point.

I'm not sure what you already have, but it seems like there's few good ones.

Lulu's 2nd event banner has her pins (some kind of utility SB yea?) and Official Ball for some decent utility, plus some decent Yuna/Tidus SBs.

The FF8 event with Squall's SSB also has some decent variety (although Seifer's skill set seems kinda...weird? Not really bad tho I guess).

I think i am gonna go for the second banner of the second FF6 event. Mog utility SB (attack boost + high regen), Terra;s Minerva, Selttzer's weapon from the upcoming first event (gambling weapon so rare) and Rising Sun. There is the danger of me getting a second Rising Sun but oh well, I love FF6.

 

[Falk]

I'll probably try to save for a banner where 2 or more of these items are present. Other than that, I think I'm set all the way up to SSBFest.

...

......

I just realized that the Organics banner, on top of having Organics, also has Dragon Armlet (Shellga) and Circlet (AOE Heal).

And I'm out of Mythril.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

EDIT: I assume best practice would be to keep Leons armour seperate? Mogs scarf is just defense too though. Disgusted because I thought it could have upped his usefulness as a mage.

Probably, unless you're rolling in heavy armor 5*s