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[cpp_is_king]

Using the probability distribution computed above, this should break down as:

24 * .1011 = 2x OSB / USB
24 * .3371 = 8x BSB
24 * .5618 = 14x SSB

And getting even fancier.

Assuming you draw an OSB/USB, the odds of each one is 1/9 = 11.11%
Assuming you draw a BSB, the odds of each one is 1/30 = 3.33%
Assuming you draw an SSB, the odds of each one is 1/50 = 2%

Given 2 OSB/USB (since that's the expected number you would draw), the expected number of *distinct* OSB/USB is 9 - 9*(8/9)^2 = 9 - 7.11 = 1.88

The expected number of distinct BSB is 30 - 30*(29/30)^8 = 30 - 22.87 = 7.12

the expected number of distinct SSB is 50 - 50*(49/50)^14 = 12.31

This is a total of (1.88 + 7.12 + 12.31) = 21.31 distinct items out of a total of 24, so you have ~2.7 dupes.

 

[cpp_is_king]

Guaranteed drop of at least 3* is the difference. The rate for 4* is not bad, but yesterday I got twice 18 3* for 90 Stamina. There is good days and bad days. There will be better dailies at some point in the future.

By the way, if I remember correctly, the 90 Stamina dungeons does not hit as hard as the 60 Stamina dungeon but have more HP. Someone can correct me if I am wrong. I know for sure that I find the 90 Stamina Exp dungeon way easier.

Wait the 60 stamina dungeon can drop lesser orbs? I thought it only dropped regular, greater, and major?

 

[CuthbertAllgoodz]

Wait the 60 stamina dungeon can drop lesser orbs? I thought it only dropped regular, greater, and major?

Both 60 and 90 drop only 3*,4* and 5*. However, with the 90 Stamina dungeon, enemies will always drop something.

 

[RocketDarkness]

It has been calculated with acceptable samples on many banners that the rate is 1 guaranteed 5* and 12% for the other 10 in a 11 pulls.

Looking at our recent Black Friday draw, Global is at 13%. I think the switch to 14% is coming up soonish, though? Maybe?

 

[CuthbertAllgoodz]

Looking at our recent Black Friday draw, Global is at 13%. I think the switch to 14% is coming up soonish, though? Maybe?

This guy doesn't count the .5-1% that should be removed from over reporting. The person compiling the data he used to claim 13% assumes a 12% because of this and it makes a lot of sense.

The rate is currently 14% when you do a single pull or a 3 pulls. However, it's the formula for 11 pulls with a guaranteed 5* that we can't exactly figure out, but it's not 1 guaranteed 5* + 10 pulls at 14% each. At 13% does not seems likely either.

 

[Syntsui]

Thanks for the numbers everyone. This will probably be the game I'll settle for, after today's fiasco I don't think I'll spend money ever again on BE.

Does the 90 stamina orb dungeon still drop 3* orbs, or is it 4* and 5* only? I was able to clear the 60 stamina dungeon, but I was disappointed to see that I was still getting 3* orbs. I don't think I'll be able to clear the 90 stamina yet though.

I can clear 90 stamina daily dungeons. You most definitely can too.

 

[cpp_is_king]

Thanks for the numbers everyone. This will probably be the game I'll settle for, after today's fiasco I don't think I'll spend money ever again on BE.


I can clear 90 stamina daily dungeons. You most definitely can too.

I just did, but it was quite difficult. I need more damage.

 

[TheBryanJZX90]

Dailies really seem like a waste of time with orbfest so close

 

[Credo]

I don't understand how, but my old game that I thought had been wiped out was the one that launched when I reinstalled the game today. I went to the Make Account Link option and took a picture of my user ID that shows up at the bottom of the screen. To make it so that this account is saved on my phone through Facebook or whatever, do I need to choose "Make Account Link" or "Overwrite Account"? After yesterday's mess, I'm too scared to do anything for fear I'll almost wipe it again, and I can't understand the wording in their descriptions clearly enough. Thanks in advance.

 

[thedan001]

I don't understand how, but my old game that I thought had been wiped out was the one that launched when I reinstalled the game today. I went to the Make Account Link option and took a picture of my user ID that shows up at the bottom of the screen. To make it so that this account is saved on my phone through Facebook or whatever, do I need to choose "Make Account Link" or "Overwrite Account"? After yesterday's mess, I'm too scared to do anything for fear I'll almost wipe it again, and I can't understand the wording in their descriptions clearly enough. Thanks in advance.

Make Account Link, select Facebook or Game Center (iOS)

Don't do overwrite, that's when you download a save file from another device and overwrites on your current device.

Hope this helps.

 

[BassForever]

Dailies really seem like a waste of time with orbfest so close

What else you gonna do with that stamina if you're caught up? Grind ultimates for 6* crystals?

 

[thedan001]

Dailies really seem like a waste of time with orbfest so close

I still need so many abilities to hone, I'll take any orbs I can get

 

[Syntsui]

I'm doing dailies so I won't waste stamina on quests that will refill my bar. I believe that's not a reality for most of you guys in a long time though.

 

[AdawgDaFAB]

I'm doing dailies so I won't waste stamina on quests that will refill my bar. I believe that's not a reality for most of you guys in a long time though.

Most dungeon updates provide enough shards to end at 4/5 after being fully completed. So, unless someone buys shards from the chocobo, then that is often the case upon a new DU hitting.

 

[cpp_is_king]

I'm doing dailies for the Mythril. Also not a problem for most people in a long time

 

[Syntsui]

I'm doing dailies for the Mythril. Also not a problem for most people in a long time

What's your stamina right now? Shit got reeeeally slow and I'm at 71. I don't think I'll be able to get to 100 by the time orb fest comes x.x

 

[thedan001]

I can't wait for the next daily dungeon update.

People reporting much higher droprates of greater and major orbs. Someone had a screenshot of 300+ of each major orbs, it was nuts.

Not coming to global FFRK until around May 2017, orbfest will have to fulfill your honing needs until then

 

[Anustart]

Should I hone fc to r3?

 

[CuthbertAllgoodz]

I can't wait for the next daily dungeon update.

People reporting much higher droprates of greater and major orbs. Someone had a screenshot of 300+ of each major orbs, it was nuts.

Not coming to global FFRK until around May 2017, orbfest will have to fulfill your honing needs until then

Pots dropping guaranteed 5* Orbs sure sounds great! Worst drop is also 2 3* instead of 1. The rate of 4* is also increased.

Should I hone fc to r3?

You have PC R3?

 

[Anustart]

Pots dropping guaranteed 5* Orbs sure sounds great! Worst drop is also 2 3* instead of 1. The rate of 4* is also increased.




You have PC R3?

I don't but I do use onion knight with his burst which gives 0 charge.

 

[cpp_is_king]

What's your stamina right now? Shit got reeeeally slow and I'm at 71. I don't think I'll be able to get to 100 by the time orb fest comes x.x

I'm at 94. The realization I had is that I will have MORE stamina and Mythril by the time orbfest comes around if I use mythril to refresh than if I don't.

Think about it like this. Where you are currently, you're getting 2 shards per dungeon clear, and you can clear about 2 dungeons per bar of stamina. So on a single bar, you're getting 4 shards.

Suppose you start at 0/5 with a full bar of stamina. You run 2 dungeons, now you're at 4/5 with an empty bar. Refill, now do the most expensive dungeon you can find, a 75 stamina or so. Now you're at 1/5 with a full bar of stamina. Do 2 more dungeons, now you get a free refill, then do 2 more.

You just did 7 dungeons (and gained 2 points of stamina) for 1 mythril refill. Your net gain is 6 mythril since you only spent one. Compare this to having done only 2 dungeons for a net gain of 2 mythril. You are 1 mythril behind where you would have been had you waited, except that it took you SIGNIFICANTLY less time to get there.

Because of this, by the time orbfest comes around, you're sure to be better off. In the long run sure you've wasted some mythril, but in the long run you wouldn't have ever had those mythril until after orbfest because you'd have been going so slow, and 100 mythril during orbfest will be better than spending 50 during orbfest and 70 after orbfest.


Occasionally if I have something to do, I'll let it sit for a while in between my first and second dungeon clear, which allows me to regenerate some naturally and knock out a more expensive dungeon.


(BTW, are you alternating between elites and classics or have you been neglecting elites?)

 

[Syntsui]

I'm at 94. The realization I had is that I will have MORE stamina and Mythril by the time orbfest comes around if I use mythril to refresh than if I don't.

Think about it like this. Where you are currently, you're getting 2 shards per dungeon clear, and you can clear about 2 dungeons per bar of stamina. So on a single bar, you're getting 4 shards.

Suppose you start at 0/5 with a full bar of stamina. You run 2 dungeons, now you're at 4/5 with an empty bar. Refill, now do the most expensive dungeon you can find, a 75 stamina or so. Now you're at 1/5 with a full bar of stamina. Do 2 more dungeons, now you get a free refill, then do 2 more.

You just did 7 dungeons (and gained 2 points of stamina) for 1 mythril refill. Your net gain is 6 mythril since you only spent one. Compare this to having done only 2 dungeons for a net gain of 2 mythril. You are 1 mythril behind where you would have been had you waited, except that it took you SIGNIFICANTLY less time to get there.

Because of this, by the time orbfest comes around, you're sure to be better off. In the long run sure you've wasted some mythril, but in the long run you wouldn't have ever had those mythril until after orbfest because you'd have been going so slow, and 100 mythril during orbfest will be better than spending 50 during orbfest and 70 after orbfest.


Occasionally if I have something to do, I'll let it sit for a while in between my first and second dungeon clear, which allows me to regenerate some naturally and knock out a more expensive dungeon.


(BTW, are you alternating between elites and classics or have you been neglecting elites?)

I understand your point and I will think about. I'm so traumatized with wasting currency right now though. I'll wait the orb fest banner, if you guys recommend and I get good shit, I'll consider spending mithril for energy. If not, I'll save it for important future pulls, even if I don't have that many skills.

I did some elites, either because of optimal stamina gain or because they rewarded an orb I needed for a skill. Most of the time I'm doing classic quests, they are already expensive enough with the stamina.

 

[cpp_is_king]

I understand your point and I will think about. I'm so traumatized with wasting currency right now though. I'll wait the orb fest banner, if you guys recommend and I get good shit, I'll consider spending mithril for energy. If not, I'll save it for important future pulls, even if I don't have that many skills.

I did some elites, either because of optimal stamina gain or because they rewarded an orb I needed for a skill. Most of the time I'm doing classic quests, they are already expensive enough with the stamina.

How far along in the classics are you? Once you get up to the second wave of FF8 dungeons you start getting only 1 stamina shard / dungeon, and if you've only been doing mostly classics until now, you may already be there. In that case, even though elites are more expensive, you'll still probably get more stamina shards / stamina on the elites since you could still be getting 2 on elites but only 1 on classics.

As an aside, you said you did 10x 11 pull in BE, so I assume you spend money. If you're F2P then this is a moot point anyway, but if you're already committed to being a spender, then it's more efficient to use mythril on refreshes and save your gems for pulls. (50 mythril to pull, compared to 3k gems. Yet 1 mythril / 100 gems to do a refill)

 

[Credo]

Make Account Link, select Facebook or Game Center (iOS)

Don't do overwrite, that's when you download a save file from another device and overwrites on your current device.

Hope this helps.

Thanks! That seems to have done it. Now maybe I'll never accidentally wipe my account again.

 

[Syntsui]

How far along in the classics are you? Once you get up to the second wave of FF8 dungeons you start getting only 1 stamina shard / dungeon, and if you've only been doing mostly classics until now, you may already be there. In that case, even though elites are more expensive, you'll still probably get more stamina shards / stamina on the elites since you could still be getting 2 on elites but only 1 on classics.

As an aside, you said you did 10x 11 pull in BE, so I assume you spend money. If you're F2P then this is a moot point anyway, but if you're already committed to being a spender, then it's more efficient to use mythril on refreshes and save your gems for pulls. (50 mythril to pull, compared to 3k gems. Yet 1 mythril / 100 gems to do a refill)

I don't want to be a spender here. I was considering it, but after the tragic event of today on BE, I just don't want to invest my money on RNG ever again.

I'm on the second wave of FFI and for now I'm still getting 2 shards. By the time OF drops, I'll probably be near 90 stamina but hardly anything greater than that. As said, I'm hoping I can pull good shit from it and from XIV banner so I can actually farm hard content without worrying to much about having to pull anything else for a while.

 

[thedan001]

I don't want to be a spender here. I was considering it, but after the tragic event of today on BE, I just don't want to invest my money on RNG ever again.

I'm on the second wave of FFI and for now I'm still getting 2 shards. By the time OF drops, I'll probably be near 90 stamina but hardly anything greater than that. As said, I'm hoping I can pull good shit from it and from XIV banner so I can actually farm hard content without worrying to much about having to pull anything else for a while.

Couple good pulls in Orbfest banners and another couple good pulls in XIV will last you for a long time. Once you have native trinity, (wall SB, mix of boostga/hastega, and a healer's medics) you will be fine without pulling at all even if you skip CM's, (Cid's missions that reward 2 major orbs if you beat battles with all characters in same realm on difficulty 160 battles) With only 2 major orbs as a reward, you won't miss out, it's typically for players that have been playing since launch and need the challenge/something to do.

There is a wall and boostga/hastega soul breaks in XIV banner as well as keeper's vol.2 banner. Since keeper's vol.2 lasts until next September, it'd be wise to save up for XIV first and see what you get.

2 cents

 

[CuthbertAllgoodz]

I don't want to be a spender here. I was considering it, but after the tragic event of today on BE, I just don't want to invest my money on RNG ever again.

How expensive is BE? Here in Canada, a 11 pulls is a bit more than 40$ for RK, I just could not do it even for the relic I want the most on the banner... Maybe for Celes next relic but that's about it.

 

[cpp_is_king]

I don't want to be a spender here. I was considering it, but after the tragic event of today on BE, I just don't want to invest my money on RNG ever again.

I know what you mean, I felt pretty much the same after my rage pulls on the lightning banner.

In case you do ever decide to spend though, don't forget about the imbalance between mythril and energy, because it will save you some money.

Let's say for example you're ok spending $30, but you dont' want to spend it on RNG. So you spend $30 and you get your 3100 gems. And since you don't want to "spend on RNG" you use your 3100 gems for refills and your hard-earned 50-mythril for an 11 pull.

Since you were already committed to spending money for 31 energy refreshes though, you should have done the 11 pull with gems and the 31 refreshes with mythril, then you would still have 20 mythril left over.

Just something to keep in mind (not trying to encourage you to break the bank or anything lol, just trying to save you money in case you ever do decide to spend).

Regarding refills for orbfest, I hope it's as good as everyone says it is, lol. The reason I've been sacrificing mythril for refills now is because I'm viewing 1 mythril now as "more valuable" than 1 mythril after orbfest is over. So a short term mythril gain for a long term mythril loss is still a long term power gain.

Or so the theory goes, we'll see if it holds true :-/

 

[Falk]

Or you could play Granblue and ticket virtually whatever character you want for $30 each.

JUST SAYIN'

 

[Dragner]

Or you could play Granblue and ticket virtually whatever character you want for $30 each.

JUST SAYIN'

unless is legfest exclusive...or seasonal

But seasonals suck...unless is Summer Zoey then youre fuck.

 

[Falk]

just start the game then and start dash

 

[thedan001]

Or you could play Granblue and ticket virtually whatever character you want for $30 each.

JUST SAYIN'

FFRK unlocks any character for free after little investment of time playing!

Actually making a character viable for A teams and not benchwarmers is another matter and that's where mythrils/gems come into play

/notaseriouspost

 

[kuroneko0509]

Or you could play Granblue and ticket virtually whatever character you want for $30 each.

JUST SAYIN'

current exchange rate for usd for 3000y is actually 24. even better.

 

[ActStriker]

It always takes that one hard lesson of going ham and missing out before you realize you never want to do that again and swear off spending money on these games.

 

[WarAdept]

Haven't done a paid pull yet apart from 100 gem pulls that are paid for using Google Rewards every now and again.

I'm still able to obliterate all content, even the CMs.

Praise Orbfests! So keen for the reveal of the banners very very soon. I hope Luneth/Ingus/Refia's BSBs are in it, would love a second shot at them.

 

[Syntsui]

How expensive is BE? Here in Canada, a 11 pulls is a bit more than 40$ for RK, I just could not do it even for the relic I want the most on the banner... Maybe for Celes next relic but that's about it.

BE only currency is lapis, here in Brazil these are the prices (in Reais - R$) :
120 - R$3.39
500 - R$13.99
1000 - R$23.99
1500 - R$34.99
3200 - R$68.99
8500 - R$169.99
18000 - R$349.99

An 11 pull there costs 5000 lapis, a single pull costs 500 lapis and every day you can do a single daily pull for 250 lapis. You can also use Summon Tickets which are distributed regularly and can be bought in King Moogle events (happens something like twice a month).

The exchange rate today to American Dollars is US$1,00 = R$3.39.

Today I spent around R$2400 and still couldn't pull the new 5* Noctis. So yeah, fuck mobile Gacha RNG fuckery.

 

[thedan001]

Praise Orbfests! So keen for the reveal of the banners very very soon. I hope Luneth/Ingus/Refia's BSBs are in it, would love a second shot at them.

I'm hoping for Rikku's BSB to complete the circle for water element (imperil, enwater, tidus osb)

I'm gonna do a pull for Beatrix and Celes' BSB banner to go with my holy knight team as well.

 

[greyshark]

I don't but I do use onion knight with his burst which gives 0 charge.

How do you do on U++? Are your current hones/BSB's enough to take them out? That's what I usually ask myself when deciding to hone.

 

[CuthbertAllgoodz]

BE only currency is lapis, here in Brazil these are the prices (in Reais - R$) :
120 - R$3.39
500 - R$13.99
1000 - R$23.99
1500 - R$34.99
3200 - R$68.99
8500 - R$169.99
18000 - R$349.99

An 11 pull there costs 5000 lapis, a single pull costs 500 lapis and every day you can do a single daily pull for 250 lapis. You can also use Summon Tickets which are distributed regularly and can be bought in King Moogle events (happens something like twice a month).

The exchange rate today to American Dollars is US$1,00 = R$3.39.

Today I spent around R$2400 and still couldn't pull the new 5* Noctis. So yeah, fuck mobile Gacha RNG fuckery.

I say damn, that's close to one Canadian grand! No way you would not get a specific 5* relic with 23.5 pulls in RK (nothing is impossiblem but still!). Look at this:

At twelve 11 pulls you enter the realm of 99% chance to have your relic by then.


Here you can also try with what I consider the most accurate pull simulator for Global. The rate is slightly higher than it really is (in my opinion) and he did not code the new super low rate for off-banner, but it gives a good impression. Try to not pull a Ragnarok for Cloud on the latest banner.

https://www.ffrkcentral.com/simulators/relicdraw

Not a big enough of sample to really mean anything concrete but I just used the simulator to try to get 30 pulls containing a Ragnarok. Here's how many 11 pulls it took me: 5,1,1,3,5,20,2,5,5,19,17,14,4,1,2,3,9,6,10,1,1,6,7,2,3,1,12,4,2,8.

It averages out to 6 11 pulls, which is about 88% chance to get one. Still, I came close twice with 19 pulls and 20 pulls, but there is people winning the lottery or getting hit by lightning, not much we can do about that!

 

[Syntsui]

I appreciate the data, CuthbertAllgoodz. I'm convinced this game is fair in regards to pulls, at least compared to BE. Maybe in the future if the situation is favorable I may put some cash in it. Right now I'm burned with this idea.

Anyway, is there a list with characters that can be obtained through story mode?

I got Luneth a while ago and I dodged a bullet because I was considering using a crystal to get him.

 

[BassForever]

Well death throes or w/e this new ability is called ever be useful or should it go straight to shatter? Why would I ever use it over dark bargain?

 

[RocketDarkness]

Well death throes or w/e this new ability is called ever be useful or should it go straight to shatter? Why would I ever use it over dark bargain?

It inflicts doom on you, which raises the base damage of the other new 5* Darkness ability. It overwrites Shout w/ a weaker buff though, so you'd want to use it before applying Shout. I shattered it, personally, since physical darkness abilities seem very lacking overall. If you absolutely need it, you can get doom from other sources.

 

[AdawgDaFAB]

Well death throes or w/e this new ability is called ever be useful or should it go straight to shatter? Why would I ever use it over dark bargain?

It + Scythe are the physical versions of Momento Mori and Dark Zone. Scythe is normally 2.1x/2 but with Doom active it becomes 3.8x/2.

I have been looking forward to this combo, personally, because I pulled Jecht's BSB recently. I can run him with R1 DT + R3 RS on a team with Onion's Burst. So that's 3.8x/2 with buffs of 30% ATK/MAG from Onion, 30% ATK from DT, +50% DMG from En-Dark. .

 

[thedan001]

Isn't the FFVI and MO events supposed to expire by now?

I still see them up

Edit: Doh, today's the 16th. I was thinking it's 17 already

 

[greyshark]

They're up through tomorrow.

 

[Anustart]

How do you do on U++? Are your current hones/BSB's enough to take them out? That's what I usually ask myself when deciding to hone.

Yeah I'm good on just about everything thrown at me. Haven't not cleared a U++ in a long time. FC3 would just be icing I guess. Might as well save the power orbs, since I got some skills to make for zidane. Need some thief skills for him, have his bsb and only mug bloodlust.

 

[Random Painted HIghway]

let me just recommend this calendar of events to new players, the next datamining is next tuesday:

http://ffrk.kongbakpao.com/calendar-of-events/

 

[CuthbertAllgoodz]

I appreciate the data, CuthbertAllgoodz. I'm convinced this game is fair in regards to pulls, at least compared to BE. Maybe in the future if the situation is favorable I may put some cash in it. Right now I'm burned with this idea.

Anyway, is there a list with characters that can be obtained through story mode?

I got Luneth a while ago and I dodged a bullet because I was considering using a crystal to get him.

Page 25 on this. This is the most up to date version and there is about everything you need to know in there!

 

[Falk]

p.s. someone needs to do OT3. I'm going to be on tour in Japan with Capcom Live through the new year and the thread is undoubtedly going to bust 400 through Orbfest and Christmas shenanigans.

Worst case just copy the OP or something.

 

[Wazzy]

I'm so ready for orbfest. I need to level up some characters and hone a couple skills and this timing is really good for me to focus and do it.