Just proved it wrong as well, 0 tuars stage 1 and 2, two cactuars stage 3.
What can I say? Some of us in 2015 still haven't shucked our ancient neanderthal trappings where it's a survival instinct to attempt to decipher patterns, because if you didn't you'd get eaten by a tiger or something.
edit: I beg to differ to be honest. It's not 3* orbs, nor 4* orbs, nor 5* orbs that this event excels at. It's a combination of them all, and is the best return for a good while, till Harvest Festival.
Like, an extremely abstracted way to get the point across (Numbers not to scale, but to make a point)
Daily dungeon: 3 units of 3* orbs per stamina bar
Elite farming: 3 units of 4* orbs per stamina bar
+++ (or certain Elite) farming: 3 units of 5* orbs per stamina bar
XP daily: 3 units of XP per stamina bar
Gold daily: 3 units of gold per stamina bar
People were mistakenly hyping themselves up to the point where they thought Orb dungeon would yield 4 units of everything, completely outclassing 3, 4, and 5* returns simultaneously. That was simply hyperbole. It's more accurate to say that while Orb dungeon might return 2 units of everything per stamina bar for a total of 10, vs 3 units of the alternatives, and thus it would only be more efficient usage of stamina to do the alternatives like elite or daily dungeon farming
if you were going after one specific thing, especially when you consider the random nature of Orb dungeon dividing between three schools.
However, even if you hit fully capping every single character, and have so much gil that it doesn't matter, Orb dungeon would still yield 2+2+2 = 6 units per stam bar, as opposed to 3 units in a specific endeavor. That's what people are misunderstanding. Yes, you don't get to pick e.g. a ton of a specific orb, but with combination coming down the road, everything counts, and every 5* flavor is useful (outside of Dark, which relies on cannibalizing your Lightning stash for Odin) Again, keep in mind those numbers are abstracted and not to scale. Merely to get a point across in terms of relative scale.
Is it a significant Mythril investment? Yes. Is it an absolutely tedious IRL grind? Yes as well. But in term of medium-term min-max, it's still simply the best use of stamina (and by extension stamina refreshing, if you can afford the Mythril) by a decent shot.
That being said, if you're short on Mythril, (and especially if you're short on gear) absolutely prioritize the four lucky pulls. With the caveat that those are even more prone to RNG and you can end up with nothing, despite how good the rates are*.
*
I would appreciate if you could follow me back please (same name in FFRK), if you need a SG user that is.
