I wish I had time to play this game. The reason I don't have time is because I've been busy writing a tool for the game whose purpose is to find the optimal sequence of synthesis actions to guarantee you the best result (e.g. maximize quality while minimizing risk of failure).
It's open source!
For those too lazy to click the above link, I'll direct-link a screenshot here.
It's important to state for the record that this tool
does not interact with the game. It does not read the game's memory, and it does not send the game commands (i.e. nothing is automated). Instead, you choose the item you're attempting to craft and manually enter your parameters, you hit Solve, and then you wait for it to spit out the best sequence of actions. At each step, you tell the tool whether it suceeded or failed, and what the new condition is, and everything else goes from there.
Currently, you can't use the tool unless you know how to compile C# code. That should change sometime within the next week, as I plan to put up an official release.
I would love some help! If you have any (not all) of the following skills and would like to help, get in touch with me, either through here, or on Github
a) Really good at math (Constructing an ideal metric for states turns out to be not very easy).
b) Programming (or designing) complicated UIs with WPF
c) C#
d) Designing heuristic search algorithms for very large search spaces.