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[Ninferno]

(3,880,723,549 / 3.6) / (3,493,667,607 / 3.7) = 1.14

Holy shit the number of backers ratio (Ike : Camilla) is A LOT lower than I thought.

Considered that people in team Ike should have lots of flags left and no many future multiplier opportunities hence no reason to not spend them now AND many in team Camilla are low on flags so they might have conserved now and hope for higher multipliers later, the actual ratio might be even lower.

This is far from what I expected.

 

[NSESN]

(3,880,723,549 / 3.6) / (3,493,667,607 / 3.7) = 1.14

Holy shit the number of backers ratio (Ike : Camilla) is A LOT lower than I thought.

Considered that people in team Ike should have lots of flag left and no many future multiplier opportunities hence no reason to not spend them now AND many in team Camilla are low on flags so they might have conserved now and hope for higher multipliers later, the actual ratio might be even lower.

This is far from what I expected.

It is more like hour fluctuations. Japan is starting to sleep an US awakening.

 

[sense]

This is lame. Team Ike barely had many multipliers and it looks like it will stay that way and to top it all off Camilla might again steal it in the end lol

 

[jnWake]

For these Gauntlets they should have score depend on the Lv of the unit you bring. It'd make it much more interesting IMO. Win % could matter this way, because now you just send Lv 1 crap and get easy points.

 

[theprodigy]

(3,880,723,549 / 3.6) / (3,493,667,607 / 3.7) = 1.14

Holy shit the number of backers ratio (Ike : Camilla) is A LOT lower than I thought.

Considered that people in team Ike should have lots of flags left and no many future multiplier opportunities hence no reason to not spend them now AND many in team Camilla are low on flags so they might have conserved now and hope for higher multipliers later, the actual ratio might be even lower.

This is far from what I expected.

.....no, larger teams for whatever reason are just less flag efficient

I don't know why, but it's always been like that

edit: also wait that's stupid you're comparing one hour forward but these early hours are where every hour is a lot bigger than the last

 

[spiritfox]

.....no, larger teams for whatever reason are just less flag efficient

I don't know why, but it's always been like that

More people who joined just for the winning feathers and not play the gauntlet.

 

[Sushen]

1st hour result of Ike v. Camilla is closer than I thought at only 1.65: 1. Looks like Camilla won't be getting as many multiplier hours and I need to start spending flags earlier than I thought then.

Also, since there's a mini Tempest which pushes back the actual Tempest to run from end September to the start of October, maybe we won't have any VG for October?

2 TT in a month seems too much to me, whereas no VG next month? They expected people hating this VG, Haha?

 

[bigzgod]

It's too early for an accurate prediction. Nevertheless, the difference seems to be narrower compared to Lyn vs Camilla, so it's actually harder for Camilla to get a multiplier going. I'm just gonna stop after the early swings so Ike doesn't gain too much on Camilla.

The prediction tracking means nothing now. We should at least wait a full day so that can be relevant.
And Team Ike has much more flags left, they can come back really fast.

Amusingly enough, it will almost certainly come down to which side can more effectively tank.

Ike wins unless Camilla can trigger a late final day bonus.

For Camilla, in order for that to happen, the best strategy is to simply not play most hours. Let Ike keep building up that lead faster in order to trigger a bonus. Camilla wants an early bonus today so that there's enough time to build another bonus tomorrow.

For Ike, the strategy is to also not play, to reduce the lead buildup tomorrow and to push back today's bonus as long as possible, which impacts Camilla's bonus chances tomorrow.

Isn't this gauntlet grand?

 

[Mupod]

Well after 150+ orbs with nothing of value I decided to try for Hector one last time, no greens...Oh hi 5* Chrom. You will be Aether for someone's arena score I guess.

Used my very last 5 orbs in a rage pull and got Hector. I don't know why my 5* always come in pairs but I'll take it. As of right now, I've pulled exactly 6 green 5* since this game came out and half of those were Hector.

Now I've got three choices for what to do with him -

- Merge him with my existing +DEF -HP one. This Hector is +HP -SPD and my Hector has Panic Ploy 3, so I'd probably be moving him over to the new one. But -SPD actually worries me a lot as my Hector survives things like Swordbreaker Alfonse for example which has won me matches.

- Give him to the +SPD -DEF 4* Titania I found and promote her. I already have skill inheritance done on her as I was preparing Titania for Distant Counter in case I didn't find Summer Corrin. But my last DC went to Camilla instead.

- +SPD -RES Palla. My flier team would then have two gem weapon distant counter quick riposte users. Once I find Hone Fliers it would be a very easy team to play in arena, or at least it would have been if not for Brave Lyn being given out to everyone for free.

I have a dearth of greens so Titania is tempting, but I rarely use horses in arena anymore. Hector is on my main team and after the addition of Panic Ploy has become very nice to have around, so a +1 would be cool. As for Palla, I don't have an answer for Brave Lyn on that team so I'm hesitant to make them my fulltime arena squad...also, if they really do add a red flier tome, she'd be rotated off.

This is a great problem to have but man it's a tough decision. I could always just sit on him and see if they add a very OP unit who could use DC.

 

[spiritfox]

Amusingly enough, it will almost certainly come down to which side can more effectively tank.

Ike wins unless Camilla can trigger a late final day bonus.

For Camilla, in order for that to happen, the best strategy is to simply not play most hours. Let Ike keep building up that lead faster in order to trigger a bonus. Camilla wants an early bonus today so that there's enough time to build another bonus tomorrow.

For Ike, the strategy is to also not play, to reduce the lead buildup tomorrow and to push back today's bonus as long as possible, which impacts Camilla's bonus chances tomorrow.

Isn't this gauntlet grand?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DGNZnfKYnU

 

[MicH]

Mother of God. On a basic 3% rate too.

Ikes are +ATK -SPD and +SPD -DEF

Roy is +HP -ATK (already got a +SPD -HP so it's whatever)

I guess I'll use the +ATK -SPD Ike?

 

[Firemind]

da fuq

 

[spiritfox]

christ almighty

 

[Apenheul]

That's really good luck! I already felt lucky that I got Brave Lyn and Brave Lucina with suboptimal IVs with only about 60 orbs but three 5 star heroes mostly with decent IVs at a 3% rate is amazing. But I'm not envious, no sir!

 

[Shito]

I guess I'll use the +ATK -SPD Ike?

Yes, atk is his most desired stat, and he has no real boon crippling him... spd may even be the least desired one!
Congrats on that awesome pull!

 

[Ninferno]

.....no, larger teams for whatever reason are just less flag efficient

I don't know why, but it's always been like that

edit: also wait that's stupid you're comparing one hour forward but these early hours are where every hour is a lot bigger than the last

Imho, multiplier hour turnout is the only way to gauge numbers of player, because many people just won't show up during normal hours, especially on the weaker teams where you get more than enough multiplier hours; showing up during a normal hour for the 220 just doesn't do shit. And you can't get multiplier for both teams at he same time, hence the one hour difference. I agree it is not perfect and yes it could be more accurate if it we sample at a later hour, or even better, take average over time, but that was what we had at the time.

 

[theprodigy]

Imho, multiplier hour turnout is the only way to gauge numbers of player, because many people just won't show up during normal hours, especially on the weaker teams where you get more than enough multiplier hours; showing up during a normal hour for the 220 just doesn't do shit. And you can't get multiplier for both teams at he same time, hence the one hour difference. I agree it is not perfect and yes it could be more accurate if it we sample at a later hour, or even better, take average over time, but that was what we had at the time.

No, I am fairly sure the actual case is that the majority of players simply dump flags whenever because they don't know or care, because if that wasn't the case the increase in flags spent during multiplier hours would be a lot more than <10x.

In fact, I'm going to say that about ~90% of players don't actually pay attention to multipliers, which roughly checks out with the number of players who even spent all their flags in the flier gauntlet.

edit: for example that last Camilla bonus was only a 2.87x flag increase from the previous hour (which doesn't even account for the rampup around the time frame naturally) this is behavior that suggests only a small minority is actually paying attention, 90% is probably underestimating it tbh

 

[Sushen]

I just joined the pity rate ruined by Lucas club. Dunno what to do with def- nonsense. Anyway, I should save my orbs, but I can't help...

 

[Firemind]

I just pulled a Gray. Like wtf never even heard of him. What do I even do with him? Wind Boost is just a worse Darting Blow.

 

[MicH]

I just pulled a Gray. Like wtf never even heard of him. What do I even do with him? Wind Boost is just a worse Darting Blow.

Sword Valor is great for grinding SP of sword units, Zanbato is also pretty good since it's effective against cavalry units. He's unfortunately not that great otherwise, but sword valor is really useful.

 

[spiritfox]

I just pulled a Gray. Like wtf never even heard of him. What do I even do with him? Wind Boost is just a worse Darting Blow.

Gray is a better Chrom. Throw a Brave Sword on him or something.

Also Sword Valor.

 

[Busaiku]

So Nephenee is gonna be a Tempest Trials unit.
Wonder how terrible they'll make her.

 

[Sciel]

I just pulled a Gray. Like wtf never even heard of him. What do I even do with him? Wind Boost is just a worse Darting Blow.

My most hated unit. I was spooked by him FOUR times when pulling for Celica in the TT banner (I never got a Celica..).

That said, he's still a good unit if he has good IVs (though even if he doesn't Sword Valor is still worth something).

 

[Firemind]

Sword Valor is great for grinding SP of sword units, Zanbato is also pretty good since it's effective against cavalry units. He's unfortunately not that great otherwise, but sword valor is really useful.

So I should SI Sword Valor to Olivia or something?

Do you get 12 SP if it's double SP day?

So Nephenee is gonna be a Tempest Trials unit.
Wonder how terrible they'll make her.

Worse Lancina guaranteed. Rest in pieces, Nephenee.

 

[MutFox]

When i was playing last night Lyn was a billion points ahead,then 30 mins later, Camila was a billion points ahead...
That's a 2 billion point jump in 30 mins...
Didn't know that was possible.

 

[Sciel]

So I should SI Sword Valor to Olivia or something?

Do you get 12 SP if it's double SP day?


Worse Lancina guaranteed. Rest in pieces, Nephenee.

Why not just level it and keep it on him? You can't have enough leveled 5* units . (well unless you have a dupe)

Yes you get 12SP.

 

[spiritfox]

Ugh why is Ike still increasing. Camilla's gonna win because of a last minute multiplier again.

When i was playing last night Lyn was a billion points ahead,then 30 mins later, Camila was a billion points ahead...
That's a 2 billion point jump in 30 mins...
Didn't know that was possible.

She hit a 7.3x multiplier because she fell behind enough for it to trigger.

 

[Firemind]

Why not just level it and keep it on him? You can't have enough leveled 5* units . (well unless you have a dupe)

Yes you get 12SP.

I dunno I'm literally only pulling reds so I have enough options I guess. Have like ten Pallas and Hinatas at this point lol

When I train low level boys and girls I like to use two dancers and a healer just in case even though the healer will just stay stationary when out of range lol

 

[bigzgod]

When i was playing last night Lyn was a billion points ahead,then 30 mins later, Camila was a billion points ahead...
That's a 2 billion point jump in 30 mins...
Didn't know that was possible.

With multipliers, swings always happen. For example, earlier today, Camilla had a 3.6 multiplier. She scored 3.5 billion that hour. Ike only scored 570 million. During Ike's 3.5 multiplier, he scored 3.9 billion while Camilla only scored 330 million.

The game is basically whether or not you can get a multiplier as an underdog at the point where it becomes very difficult for the team with more people on it to overcome the difference.

 

[SenorArdilla]

Please vote for Ike more. Camilla only has 3 predicted multipliers left.

 

[Shito]

I just pulled a Gray. Like wtf never even heard of him. What do I even do with him? Wind Boost is just a worse Darting Blow.

The game decided to give me 3 of them back in his banner days: I made a +2 and kept him with his default kit for the moment. He can have his uses in some modes where your need a deep box: he's quite a good poney counter with his default weapon.

 

[MutFox]

She hit a 7.3x multiplier because she fell behind enough for it to trigger.

With multipliers, swings always happen. For example, earlier today, Camilla had a 3.6 multiplier. She scored 3.5 billion that hour. Ike only scored 570 million. During Ike's 3.5 multiplier, he scored 3.9 billion while Camilla only scored 330 million.

The game is basically whether or not you can get a multiplier as an underdog at the point where it becomes very difficult for the team with more people on it to overcome the difference.

Hmmm, you'd think those multipliers would even it out, not give billion point leads...
Oh well, they'll adjust it for future gauntlets.

 

[bigzgod]

Hmmm, you'd think those multipliers would even it out, not give billion point leads...
Oh well, they'll adjust it for future gauntlets.

Except when they first did it, the multiplier was only 3x or so. People complained that it wasn't enough and it didn't actually do anything, since the most popular character won anyway.

Then they changed it to the current system and we've had a few upsets, with nobody really caring too much and actually tolerating the system, if not liking it for some suspense.

However, once it triggered here and actually impacted a character a lot of people cared about, you see a lot more people complaining about it.

It's very ironic. The same people that wanted previous systems changed so there would be more suspense and more underdog victories got burned by the same change they championed. Now that it actually hurt them in one fight that they really wanted their character (Lyn) to win, the system sucks and they want it changed back. I'm betting these exact same people will be complaining in 6 months again about how gauntlets are "boring" and "predictable" if IS caves and lessens the underdog multiplier.

 

[spiritfox]

So Clive is basically a blue Xander without DC. The lack of DC hurts a lot, but otherwise he shouldn't be as maligned as he is right? He can inherit DC and act as a pseudo Xander.

Of course there better blue horses but since we need multiple teams anyway he has a place as a 2nd or 3rd choice.

 

[NSESN]

Except when they first did it, the multiplier was only 3x or so. People complained that it wasn't enough and it didn't actually do anything, since the most popular character won anyway.

Then they changed it to the current system and we've had a few upsets, with nobody really caring too much and actually tolerating the system, if not liking it for some suspense.

However, once it triggered here and actually impacted a character a lot of people cared about, you see a lot more people complaining about it.

It's very ironic. The same people that wanted previous systems changed so there would be more suspense and more underdog victories got burned by the same change they championed. Now that it actually hurt them in one fight that they really wanted their character (Lyn) to win, the system sucks and they want it changed back. I'm betting these exact same people will be complaining in 6 months again about how gauntlets are "boring" and "predictable" if IS caves and lessens the underdog multiplier.

How do you know if those are the same people?

 

[Tripon]

So Clive is basically a blue Xander without DC. The lack of DC hurts a lot, but otherwise he shouldn't be as maligned as he is right? He can inherit DC and act as a pseudo Xander.

Of course there better blue horses but since we need multiple teams anyway he has a place as a 2nd or 3rd choice.

If you need a blue horse melee unit, why not use Camus who has DC anyway?

 

[spiritfox]

If you need a blue horse melee unit, why not use Camus who has DC anyway?

Because you might have used him already?

 

[Shito]

I still don't understand why people care so much about who wins these useless polls: just enjoy the ride and the feathers, it's not like a character "winning" it has any real impact anyways!

 

[Sushen]

How can your team rank be so much lower than total rank??? I'm like 40k in team but 8k in total.

 

[Alucrid]

How can your team rank be so much lower than total rank??? I'm like 40k in team but 8k in total.

isn't team just for this round?

 

[SolarKnight]

How can your team rank be so much lower than total rank??? I'm like 40k in team but 8k in total.

Because you just can't compete with people on your team that saved up all their flags for this round if you didnt do the same, or you missed multipliers and they didn't, but you did so well in points the last rounds relative to them that you still have more points total.

 

[Drkirby]

Is it safe to bet that Ike won't get more Multipliers, and just start burning flags now? I have like 3k.

 

[SenorArdilla]

Can't wait for Japan to wake up and give Camilla more of those delicious multipliers.

 

[sense]

There really needs to be a reset winning streak in arena besides losing or playing out the 7 matches. It is not like I am going to run out of dueling crests as I have over 150 but just annoying when you are trying to get top score and lose one unit in one of the matches.after 3 separate tries I got a new high score and now in safe spot to go to tier 20 where I will have no chance of getting high score and drop back to tier 19 lol.

 

[Wyndstryker]

I still don't understand why people care so much about who wins these useless polls: just enjoy the ride and the feathers, it's not like a character "winning" it has any real impact anyways!

Waifu wars is serious business

 

[SenorArdilla]

Seriously. I have like 1900 flags that I need to spend. Ike people need start voting so Camilla gets the multipliers. And then Ike can get multipliers.

 

[redcrayon]

Is it safe to bet that Ike won't get more Multipliers, and just start burning flags now? I have like 3k.

I pretty much burn them down to 600 flags or so by this point. it's unlikely there will be a) more than 3 multipliers on the last day and b) I'll catch them.

 

[redcrayon]

No, I am fairly sure the actual case is that the majority of players simply dump flags whenever because they don't know or care, because if that wasn't the case the increase in flags spent during multiplier hours would be a lot more than <10x.

In fact, I'm going to say that about ~90% of players don't actually pay attention to multipliers, which roughly checks out with the number of players who even spent all their flags in the flier gauntlet.

edit: for example that last Camilla bonus was only a 2.87x flag increase from the previous hour (which doesn't even account for the rampup around the time frame naturally) this is behavior that suggests only a small minority is actually paying attention, 90% is probably underestimating it tbh

To be fair, most players are probably just chipping in flags when they have time during the day, which probably isn't when a multiplier is on. Lots of people can't play games or check their phone every hour at work. That's partly why I spend my flags early regardless, there's no guarantee I can play at all during a given day so the metagame doesn't really matter to me, and seeing as I'm posting on a forum about it I'm probably still putting more time in than the average player.

 

[Therion]

Is it safe to bet that Ike won't get more Multipliers, and just start burning flags now? I have like 3k.

Ike is only predicted to get one more multiplier ~4 hours from now. Even if the prediction turns out to be very inaccurate, I wouldn't expect him to have more than one bonus hour after that.

 

[Wyndstryker]

That feeling where you you realize you clicked on the wrong banner when trying for a pull...

RIP orbs