I’ve been working for over a year to figure out what is wrong with Arsenal. Why doesn’t this team generate shots like it used to? And why aren’t they just better? They used to be better. As I’ve said in the past, part of it is talent – Arsenal bled a lot of incredible players over the last five years or so. But plenty of managers have had lesser talent and done more, including Wenger himself. It’s so rare that you see systemic outputs change this much without the approach changing as well.
Yesterday while watching the match, it finally came to me.
Remember what Arsenal were like 4 or 5 years ago? They were Barcelona-lite. They would have huge possession, set up camp outside the 18, and eventually, after teasing their fans to death, shoot high percentage shots. It was glorious to watch, but they had two weaknesses.
The first was against teams that managed to figure out how to press them in the 40-20 yard area, which was fairly rare back then. Traditional English management says you bunker your defense in and around the box, and hope for the best.
And the second weakness was against teams that could counter attack with good attacking talent.
Think of how many times it looked like Arsenal dominated a match against Manchester United, except for the fact that they lost. Think of how many [expletive deleted] times Park and Rooney would race down the pitch and score a goal or two in the second half that finished a match.
Now think about the “death of tiki-taka.” Super possession teams have had the exact same problems in Europe (and often in their own leagues) that Arsenal had during that era. Strong, physical teams with good talent that know how to disrupt outside the 18 yard box, and then counter attack like lightning have utterly dominated the last two years against high possession teams. The same thing happened to Spain at the World Cup.
At some point Ferguson figured out that tactical matchup. So did Mourinho at Real, and no one during that era had better talent overall than Barcelona. Heynckes solved it as well, and lead Bayern to an incredible season.
Basically, Arsenal have sustained splash damage from their gorgeous attacking approach when it comes to facing talented teams. This has left Wenger with a dilemma. He either has to stratify his tactical approach into two buckets – possession against the lesser teams (and they always mow down lesser teams), and “something else that hopefully works” against good teams, or he has to adapt the possession approach to handle this new challenge.
The problem here is that not even Pep Guardiola has figured out how to fix the problem his system has with hyper-physical counterattacking teams. The other issue is that even if Wenger were willing, Arsenal can’t go for a full change and switch to a physical, counter-attacking approach themselves for a very clear reason. They are tiny.
Smallest average height in a side? Arsenal. Lightest average weight in the side? Arsenal. Arsenal can’t play physical against teams with the same talent, because they just get shrugged off.
So watching Everton pick apart Arsenal on the break in the exact same fashion they did last year made me realize it’s actually the same systemic flaw we’ve been seeing for most of the last decade. Arsene’s been trying to figure out how to fix it, and he can’t. If you rock a standard high possession plan, you leave yourself vulnerable to counters. If you try to control more for counters, you generate fewer shots, and lower shot differential, and lower possession, which in turn gives your opponents more of the ball and more shots. Sound familiar?
The best Wenger has been able to do while keeping his system is turn games to mud against good teams, or hope the good teams want to dominate possession, and then allow his team to counter-attack or nick a set piece or two.
Can the system be fixed? Obviously better minds than mine have been working on this and haven’t solved it.
One thing I would definitely do though is look at bigger, faster, better personnel in midfield, especially in the DM role. Arsenal’s potential selections here are Flamini (tiny), Arteta (older and tiny) and uh, Wilshere? I know Wenger wants top passers in that role, but there have to be guys who are both physical and capable distributors. This is even more true when Mertesacker is in the side. Mert is a great game reader, but him plus the DM selection, plus Monreal and Debuchy mean there is almost no pace in the back line. Compare that to what Arsenal once had in Sol Campbell, Kolo Toure, or even William Gallas before he totally lost his legs, and you can see the shift.
Want to play a higher line while still trying to keep counters in check? Maybe you need to compensate with more pace and physicality in your defenders?
All of this leads to other questions like, is Wenger too old to truly change and adapt to a system that can win the league these days? Or does Arsenal just have to spend enough money to recruit the top talent to compete with Chelsea and City, at which point Wenger’s classic system will be fine again?
I personally do not know, but I have watched enough of these battles to feel that Arsenal are caught in a spot where they want to fix a flaw, don’t know how to do it comprehensively (either through personnel or tactical changes), and bleed points because of it.
