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[Kenka]

Hmm, this here says the probability is actually 1 in 17088. Who to believe?

Sounds indeed more reasonable, with the number of participants in the draw. Too bad no EL draw pic has been shown around :-(

 

[Sviatoslav]

Sounds indeed more reasonable, with the number of participants in the draw.

Well in the link there's source code for how it was calculated. If anybody understands that stuff they can confirm if all the proper assumptions were made.

 

[Zabojnik]

This man is a multi-millionnaire. Think about that.

I try not to.

 

[Kenka]

Well in the link there's source code for how it was calculated. If anybody understands that stuff they can confirm if all the proper assumptions were made.

No probability from the table has been used in this code :-(

 

[Sage00]

Neil Lennon on Juve: "They topped their group with Chelsea, beat them 3-0 and not many teams do that. Manager has done a wonderful job there. Very consistent in Serie A and easily the best team in Italy. We will really relish the two games. Juventus are right up there and in terms of with glamour it's as good as you get. Eight or nine of them played in the final (Italy at Euros) but jewel in the crown would be Pirlo. Played against him in 2007 and he seems to have got even better since then. I don't get excited very often but I was very excited today. Very pleased with the draw for pure football reasons. Celtic Park will be packed to the rafters."

 

[fuenf]

If you want to know the odds of having a draw being held twice in a row, you multiply the probability of having one with itself. But your comment about the order makes it a tad more complex.

I know that's why I didnt get your "squared it for the second round" comment. Unfortunately I dont believe it's just a 'tad' more complex... there are many possible draws that would produce the same pairing and depending on the order the pairings are drawn, they should all have a different probability.

 

[Sviatoslav]

Cluj gonna style on Inter huh? Not bad.

 

[Zabojnik]

Cluj - Inter in EL. Niiiice.

Neil Lennon on Juve: "They topped their group with Chelsea, beat them 3-0 and not many teams do that. Manager has done a wonderful job there. Very consistent in Serie A and easily the best team in Italy. We will really relish the two games. Juventus are right up there and in terms of with glamour it's as good as you get. Eight or nine of them played in the final (Italy at Euros) but jewel in the crown would be Pirlo. Played against him in 2007 and he seems to have got even better since then. I don't get excited very often but I was very excited today. Very pleased with the draw for pure football reasons. Celtic Park will be packed to the rafters."

Respect Celtic bros. Let's make it a football festival and may the best team win!

Spoiler

Barca.

 

[Sviatoslav]

Zenit time!

LOLERPOOOOOOOOOOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[The_Hitcher89]

Hey, Sviat

 

[confuziz]

Aaaand liverpool is done.

 

[Tegris]

Zenit? Oh God.

 

[Tc91]

Hulk gonna stomp all over Skittles.

 

[Randdalf]

I could see Arsenal beating Bayern, but only if they strengthen in the January transfer window.

 

[Wilbur]

Whoever wins, we lol

 

[Sviatoslav]

Thank god. Styling on mid-table teams is all Kerzhakov is good for. I trust I have all of footy-gaf behind me!

 

[fuenf]

I could see Arsenal beating Bayern, but only if they strengthen in the January transfer window.

they would need to buy Barca.

 

[Kenka]

I know that's why I didnt get your "squared it for the second round" comment. Unfortunately I dont believe it's just a 'tad' more complex... there are many possible draws that would produce the same pairing and depending on the order the pairings are drawn, they should all have a different probability.

You imply that probabilities "move" during the draw. Yes, they are, that's correct since teams fly out of the poll when they are drawn, and each time this happens, the probabilities of the ones left to draw one another is raised to let them cumulate to 100% again.

Now, another factor would be that the odds for, say, Malaga to defy Arsenal is not the same if it they are drawn against one another in the second round of the poll if, say, Madrid was drawn in the first round in the rehearsal, and another team in the actual draw.

 

[Mastadon]

Awesome, fellow racists.

 

[Slizz]

Obviously I would prefer not playing Ronny, but I am excited at the notion.


Also....

 

[The_Hitcher89]

Homecoming for Skrtel

Is Hulk still injured?

 

[confuziz]

no problem for newcastle i think

 

[Kenka]

Leverkusen - Benfica will be something !

Bye bye Newcastle.

 

[Yurt]

Cluj - Inter in EL. Niiiice.

Secret agent Jorge Andrés Martínez to the rescue.

 

[Sviatoslav]

Homecoming for Skrtel

Is Hulk still injured?

Nope, although he is still a whiny, useless bitch.

 

[The_Hitcher89]

Leverkusen - Benfica will be something !

Bye bye Newcastle.

BAAAAAAAAAAAAYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRR

Spoiler

You can shove your N up your arse

 

[confuziz]

Watch ajax draw atletico

edit : damn

 

[Hixx]

I've never even heard of the team the skunks are playing

 

[Sviatoslav]

Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit. Rubin is fucked, they get Atletico Madrid.

 

[choodi]

What type of heavy metal do kharkiv play?

 

[Timurid]

I kinda fancy us beating bayern! I have a good feeling about this fixture. Fuck Bayern!!!!

 

[Broder Salsa]

I like the close ups of these club officials faces when the draws are being made, they always look super awkward like they are sitting in a really hot sweaty room, never sure if to smile or what to do.

Thank god. Styling on mid-table teams is all Kerzhakov is good for. I trust I have all of footy-gaf behind me!

Not even your crazyracist fans can keep me from not supporting Zenit over Liverpool.

 

[Phantast2k]

lol at that Rubin Kazan dude. He's like "what now? You want me to smile, you fuckers?!"

 

[confuziz]

Ajax with an easy draw

 

[Kenka]

Ajax - Chelsea ?

edit: nope.

The odds for Basel to either draw Chelsea or Hanover is getting nearer.

edit: nope

 

[Randdalf]

Metalist Kharkiv, now that's a team name if I ever heard one.

 

[fuenf]

You imply that probabilities "move" during the draw. Yes, they are, that's correct since teams fly out of the poll when they are drawn, and each time this happens, the probabilities of the ones left to draw one another is raised to let them cumulate to 100% again.

Now, another factor would be that the odds for, say, Malaga to defy Arsenal is not the same if it they are drawn against one another in the second round of the poll if, say, Madrid was drawn in the first round in the rehearsal, and another team in the actual draw.

Exactly. I'm sure there'll be an article about it very soon, it should be easy to simulate this shit but unfortunately I dont have the necessary software anymore.

Btw. I dont know C, but doesent the source code that was posted look like he's simply calculating the number of possible permutations?

 

[confuziz]

Hannover will get raped

 

[confuziz]

Chelsea with an easy draw

 

[Anderson]

Just realized I'm in Berlin on the 14th March, day after Bayern kick our arses thoroughly or we pull a Chelsea

 

[Kenka]

THIS IS SPARTA

 

[fuenf]

wow Gladbach vs Klose

 

[Kenka]

BMG - NAZIO
TOTTENHAM - LYON

Klose against Gladbach is grand. Lloris to let balls slip between his legs.

 

[Sviatoslav]

I like the close ups of these club officials faces when the draws are being made, they always look super awkward like they are sitting in a really hot sweaty room, never sure if to smile or what to do.



Not even your crazyracist fans can keep me from not supporting Zenit over Liverpool.

 

[Zabojnik]

Lazio - Borussia Moasdjasdjaoqwuqw. NIIIIICE.

 

[Kenka]

It won't be easy for Naples.

 

[spidye]

Thank god. Styling on mid-table teams is all Kerzhakov is good for. I trust I have all of footy-gaf behind me!

hell no. Liverpool all the way.
for Fry8.

 

[Phantast2k]

BATE Borisov - Fenerbahce
Inter Mailand - CFR Cluj
UD Levante - Olympiakos
Zenit S-Pb - Liverpool
Dynamo Kiew - Bordeaux
Bay. Leverkusen - Benfica
Newcastle - Metalist
VfB Stuttgart - KRC Genk
Atlético Madrid - Rubin Kazan
Ajax - Steaua
FC Basel - Dnipro
Anzhi - Hannover 96
Sparta Prag - Chelsea
Bor. M'gladbach - Lazio Rom
Tottenham - Lyon
SSC Neapel - Viktoria Pilsen

BATE Borisov - Fenerbahce
Inter Mailand - CFR Cluj
UD Levante - Olympiakos
Zenit S-Pb - Liverpool
Dynamo Kiew - Bordeaux
Bay. Leverkusen - Benfica
Newcastle - Metalist
VfB Stuttgart - KRC Genk
Atlético Madrid - Rubin Kazan
Ajax - Steaua
FC Basel - Dnipro
Anzhi - Hannover 96
Sparta Prag - Chelsea
Bor. M'gladbach - Lazio Rom
Tottenham - Lyon
SSC Neapel - Viktoria Pilsen

 

[José Mourinho]

It's laughable that we already know Gerrard and Lampard will be somewhere on the list.

Frank Lampard who is up there with the all-time top Premier League goalscorers as a midfielder and who's had an excellent career? Think he would deserve it to be honest.

As for Gerard. Well in my opinion, he's a more talented player, but he hasn't had the career Frank has had. But still probably worth a mention.

 

[Kenka]

BATE Borisov - Fenerbahce
Inter Mailand - CFR Cluj
UD Levante - Olympiakos
Zenit S-Pb - Liverpool
Dynamo Kiew - Bordeaux
Bay. Leverkusen - Benfica
Newcastle - Metalist
VfB Stuttgart - KRC Genk
Atlético Madrid - Rubin Kazan
Ajax - Steaua
FC Basel - Dnipro
Anzhi - Hannover 96
Sparta Prag - Chelsea
Bor. M'gladbach - Lazio Rom
Tottenham - Lyon
SSC Neapel - Viktoria Pilsen


But it's really gonna be tough for everybody. I see no team having a big advantage, except maybe Atlético.