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[2MF]

Btw, here's my take on it:

This is a deliberate plan to inflate Greece's debt. Greece will NEVER be able to repay its debt, especially now that they have to sell 50bn of public assets at fire sale prices.

Eventually Greece's debt will become a federal/EU debt, Eurobonds will be introduced, Greece will lose its sovereignty in a favor of a political/fiscal union and so they won't have to worry about their debt anymore. I can't find another logical explanation...

Here's another logical explanation: this kicks the can a bit further, which is something politicians love doing (especially if the can is kicked beyond the next election).

Same old crap that has been happening for years, really. The only ones who will realistically stop this are the Greek parliament and/or the Greek people, if they're not OK with these draconian measures.

 

[Negotiator]

This makes no sense. Its also not an artificial way to increase Greek debts. Greece is asking for further borrowing after all.

We'll see in a few decades if I'm wrong or right.

 

[Nikodemos]

Btw, here's my take on it:

This is a deliberate plan to inflate Greece's debt. Greece will NEVER be able to repay its debt, especially now that they have to sell 50bn of public assets at fire sale prices.

Eventually Greece's debt will become a federal/EU debt, Eurobonds will be introduced, Greece will lose its sovereignty in a favor of a political/fiscal union and so they won't have to worry about their debt anymore. I can't find another logical explanation...

You mean they are turning Greece into a lab rat for a direct Union governance thing?



They're not that smart, Donny.

 

[Negotiator]

Here's another logical explanation: this kicks the can a bit further, which is something politicians love doing (especially if the can is kicked beyond the next election).

Same old crap that has been happening for years, really.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that we will be talking about a 4th MoU in 2018, probably another 100bn of loans.

That doesn't negate my point though: Greece will NEVER be able to repay its debt. Greece is turning into a debt colony. No?

 

[Nydius]

Woke up this morning and tuned in to international news and heard that an agreement was reached. I'm fairly disappointed, even without knowing what the full details of the agreement. The last few years of austerity measures haven't helped so I fail to see how another 3 years of austerity will accomplish anything - assuming this gets passed by Greek Parliament and other Member Nation Parliaments.

I'm afraid all this will do is kick the can down the curb. Debts still won't be repaid, the economy still won't grow much simply because there isn't much for them to rebuild with. Youth unemployment will likely continue to grow and the "brain drain" will continue to be an issue, as younger, educated Greeks leave their home country to make a living elsewhere.

Regardless, this entire episode has put egg on the face of the entire Eurozone. It doesn't matter which side of the rhetoric you happen to buy into, everyone walks away from this looking horrible. Reading the comments by leaders, MEPs, and average citizens, I couldn't help but notice there's a lot of "Northern Europe" vs. "Southern Europe" sentiment. It makes the "ever closer union" ideal look like a complete pipe dream and it feels like the various countries of Europe are stepping back into their old habits of forging alliances of similar ideologies.

If the point of the hardline by Germany, et al. was to send a message to the other anti-austerity parties around Europe (read: Podemos), their behavior may have had the opposite effect.

 

[Negotiator]

You mean they are turning Greece into a lab rat for a direct Union governance thing?



They're not that smart, Donny.

Greece has been a lab rat since 2010. Even Papandreou has confessed that.

 

[TCRS]

sounds like the best solution out of this giant clusterfuck. jesus christ, what a drama.

as always I blame the french left with everything. without the french left there would be no EU and no Euro.

 

[M°°nblade]

An exit would come with an official default, not the defacto default Greece is facing. This allows Greece to rebuild in the meantime. The debt will have to be repaid but they will be in a better position to than continuing this madness.

Outside the EU, Greece will be in a far worse position to rebuild or repay anything. They need money ASAP.
Tsipras knows this, which is why he agreed upon the conditions.

Wut?

fine, EZ then ...

 

[2MF]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that we will be talking about a 4th MoU in 2018, probably another 100bn of loans.

That doesn't negate my point though: Greece will NEVER be able to repay its debt. Greece is turning into a debt colony. No?

I would say it's unlikely they'll repay their debt.

I guess it is possible, but it would require a big economic turnaround, which is even harder to achieve now that Greece's demographics are getting worse and worse (emmigration of young working-age people, low birth rate resulting in decreasing and aging population).

Same thing is happening in Portugal (haven't checked Spain's figures, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's the case there too).

 

[darkace]

Btw, here's my take on it:

This is a deliberate plan to inflate Greece's debt. Greece will NEVER be able to repay its debt, especially now that they have to sell 50bn of public assets at fire sale prices.

Eventually Greece's debt will become a federal/EU debt, Eurobonds will be introduced, Greece will lose its sovereignty in a favor of a political/fiscal union and so they won't have to worry about their debt anymore. I can't find another logical explanation...

I can: No political party wants to be the first to admit the Eurozone is a failure, as the European project still has widespread public support. Tearing down the Eurozone, while being for the greater good, would just about guarantee them vacating the government benches at the next election.

 

[petran79]

At this stage, you're all just running in circles, much like Europe.

Not like Europe but like this

 

[eot]

It makes the "ever closer union" ideal look like a complete pipe dream and it feels like the various countries of Europe are stepping back into their old habits of forging alliances of similar ideologies.

It always has been.

 

[Negotiator]

I can: No political party wants to be the first to admit the Eurozone is a failure, as the European project still has widespread public support. Tearing down the Eurozone, while being for the greater good, would just about guarantee them vacating the government benches at the next election.

What about far right-wing parties? They're on the rise across Europe...

 

[enanogrande]

Btw, here's my take on it:

This is a deliberate plan to inflate Greece's debt. Greece will NEVER be able to repay its debt, especially now that they have to sell 50bn of public assets at fire sale prices.

Eventually Greece's debt will become a federal/EU debt, Eurobonds will be introduced, Greece will lose its sovereignty in a favor of a political/fiscal union and so they won't have to worry about their debt anymore. I can't find another logical explanation...

You know, back when I was a teen I was always convinced something like this was part of the plan. Not specifically in the way it's happening with Greece, but it was inconceivable to me how the EU could choose to implement a Monetary Union without a fiscal one. My only conclusion, back then, was that the ministers knew something like this was inevitable within 10-20 years, and were banking on that moment, coupled with the intervening years of EU prosperity, to push through a more complete federal model/transfer of sovereignty from the constituents. A long con, if you will, on the concept of a truly unified Europe.

I think I was naive of me to assume they were looking that far into the future instead of at their own short term gains - and I think the same applies now.

 

[KingSnake]

I wonder how the though guys of Eurozone (Finland, Estonia, Latvia etc) with their statements against giving more money to the Greeks feel about another 80 billions going down the drain?

 

[Theonik]

Outside the EU, Greece will be in a far worse position to rebuild or repay anything. They need money ASAP.
Tsipras knows this, which is why he agreed upon the conditions.

There isn't much reason why Greece wouldn't be able to stay in the EU, or get in agreements with the common markets to do trade. Short of crazy punitive measures being enacted.

 

[Coriolanus]

If there is to be a silver lining in this whole mess, it is that whatever left wing party that comes into power in the future in any EU country suffering financial hardship can no longer entertain the delusion of going at it half-cocked.

I feel like the Greeks really want to change things this time, I hope they'll get through these tough times.

They will not.

If anything, I am hoping for a Grexit only due to its pedagogical value. Yes, you can indeed recover your national soverignity and decide your own destiny. But it's not goin to be free, nor a pleasant ride, period, despite of what your politicians are trying to sell you.

No one has ever said that defaulting would be easy. Then again, good luck finding a country in recent history outside zimbabwe that defaulted and is as up shit creek as Greece is right now, let alone where it'll be one to two years from now.

What a fucking clown Tsipras is. What was even the point of that referendum?

¯\_(&#12484_/¯
Chief theory is that he indeed wanted to lose it, to justify his capitulation.

I dont get how stupid Yanos and Syriza have been.

Yanis was ready to issue cali-style IOU's and take things towards the next level. Was sacked right after he said that, so there's reason to believe that fault lies in Tsipras for being a feckless cunt.

You do really that without saving the banks, you'd lose your own money as well?

You can nationalize the banks and send the fuckers that gambled the system and fucked up to jail, m8.

Like all left wingers, when it comes to economics he believes there will always be someone else willing to pay the bills.

Spending other peoples money is their faith.

Pro-tip: you don't own your money. The government does. Which is why it is usually a crime to, say, burn notes. But carry on with your shitty strawman.

 

[Tugatrix]

Greece is the europe Argentina, they have been for years the place for economic experiences of the IMF and we know how that ended

 

[Kathian]

Yanos thought he could control the events and get some miracle deal. Needed pragmatist not an egotist. The fact that some are pretending its all because of what clothes he wore is funny if not sad, hes made himself a bit of a cult at the expense of Greece.

 

[KingSnake]

Greece is the europe Argentina, they have been for years the place for economic experiences of the IMF and we know how that ended

With the small difference that Argentina has its own currency and a working central bank.

 

[Negotiator]

You know, back when I was a teen I was always convinced something like this was part of the plan. Not specifically in the way it's happening with Greece, but it was inconceivable to me how the EU could choose to implement a Monetary Union without a fiscal one. My only conclusion, back then, was that the ministers knew something like this was inevitable within 10-20 years, and were banking on that moment, coupled with the intervening years of EU prosperity, to push through a more complete federal model/transfer of sovereignty from the constituents. A long con, if you will, on the concept of a truly unified Europe.

I think I was naive of me to assume they were looking that far into the future instead of at their own short term gains - and I think the same applies now.

Not all politicians are dumb and even those who are dumb, they might be puppets working towards the "big picture" (USoE), even if they don't realize it.

Hell, even Tsipras could be a puppet politician as far as I'm concerned...

 

[2MF]

The Swedish daily SvD published an interview with the Swedish Financial Minister today on the agreement. I thought it could be interesting considering that Sweden is one of the non-Euro EU countries and considering that we have one of the few (supposedly) left wing governments in Europe.

Original article in Swedish, my translation below.



To be honest I don't find it particularly reassuring. It's basically the same opinion I had months ago, before I took a closer look at what has actually been going on in Greece, and I can't help but suspect that Andersson is similarly seeing things from the Swedish cultural and historical perspective only.

In 2013 and 2014, about two thousand Greeks moved to Sweden (there are now 15k Greeks in Sweden, total), many more to other European countries. I'd be willing to bet that most of them are young and many of them educated, which means they'll most likely contribute to the Swedish economy and pay taxes. I imagine there's a similar (most likely bigger) movement to big countries like France and Germany.

She should think about that the next time she says "The tax payers in the other Euro countries are the ones who are paying."

 

[Tugatrix]

With the small difference that Argentina has its own currency and a working central bank.

Yep, which will speed up the fall

 

[Coriolanus]

With the small difference that Argentina has its own currency and a working central bank.

And better post-crisis gdp growth, unemployment, and a fuckton less debt to gdp.

Argentina is a bloody success story compared to most of the successes that the EU likes to claim, and that's with the same bunch of useless bastards running the country for more than a decade.

Yep, which will speed up the fall

I invite you to go look at stats on Argentina's economy, from, say, 1998 to the current day.

 

[KingSnake]

A €50bn asset fund will be formed to be run by Greeks but supervised by Europe. Half of that will be used to recapitalise banks, which will then be privatised.

How evil genius is this? Selling asset under price, buy asset at price, sell asset under price. Soros would be so proud of this idea.

 

[Mr. Giggles]

We'll see in a few decades if I'm wrong or right.

Thread bookmarked, hopefully neogaf is still functioning after the nuclear apocalypse

 

[Theonik]

How evil genius is this? Selling asset under price, buy asset at price, sell asset under price. Soros would be so proud of this idea.

The more I look at Schäuble's proposals he sounds like a supervilain.

 

[Tugatrix]

And better post-crisis gdp growth, unemployment, and a fuckton less debt to gdp.

Argentina is a bloody success story compared to most of the successes that the EU likes to claim, and that's with the same bunch of useless bastards running the country for more than a decade.


I invite you to go look at stats on Argentina's economy, from, say, 1998 to the current day.

I know it that's why I brought their case to the table

 

[KingSnake]

Also, relevant for the German gaffers, from their favorite magazine (just joking):

 

[Nikodemos]

The more I look at Schäuble's proposals he sounds like a supervilain.

Or a provincial moron, unknowingly (to him) puppeted by a bunch of vultures looking for a quick easy meal.

 

[Calabi]

What bargaining chips? The only bargaining chip they have is default. Defaulting is theoretically easy to do but pulling the trigger and turning their country into a third world nation overnight is not an easy decision. The best thing the Greek government/people can do is prepare/plan for the inevitable default.

Well exactly, but they went into the negations making it clear they werent going to default nor leave the Euro. There was no negotiations, Greece had no position of power, no ultimatum to offer. Their enemy the Troika could see that so could push them all the way to where ever it wants. If someone is standing there putting pressure on your throat, you either concede or you move away. The Troika new that, they just had to keep the pressure on and Greece would concede to whatever demands they wanted.

 

[Frankfurter]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that we will be talking about a 4th MoU in 2018, probably another 100bn of loans.

That doesn't negate my point though: Greece will NEVER be able to repay its debt. Greece is turning into a debt colony. No?

It's probably not about Greece paying all (or even most) of its debt back anymore.

 

[Nicktendo86]

No, we just got a decade of lost growth in order to push Tory ideology. We didn't need Austerity and neither did Greece. Especially not to save fucking Bankers.

UK 'austerity' is a sham, we are cutting less and at a slower pace than Alistair Darling's plan! Osbourne dramatically scaled back his original plans, how anyone can compare the UK to Greece is beyond me.

Tory ideology has got record levels of employment, record tax receipts from the highest earners and has closed inequality whereas is widened under Labour.

This is al way off topic anyway, not sure why you brought up the tories in a discussion about Greece but there you go.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

It's probably not about Greece paying all (or even most) of its debt back anymore.

But it is, because debt relief was ruled out.

 

[Aon]

Also, relevant for the German gaffers, from their favorite magazine (just joking):

For gaffers who can't speak German, "Breakthrough in the Grexit-Drama, After all the promises that there wouldn't be a third aid package: 86 billion euros for the Greeks. Chancellor Merkel: "The advantages outweigh the disadvantages""

 

[Chariot]

The more I look at Schäuble's proposals he sounds like a supervilain.

This guy almost managed to get a law through that would've allowed him to blast planes out of the sky anywhere if he thought terrorists were on board and wanted to use the army within the country at his command

 

[Negotiator]

It's probably not about Greece paying all (or even most) of its debt back anymore.

Then what is this all about? What's your take on it?

 

[PdotMichael]

An exit would come with an official default, not the defacto default Greece is facing. This allows Greece to rebuild in the meantime. The debt will have to be repaid but they will be in a better position to than continuing this madness.


Given negotiations occurred behind closed doors I'd like to know where you are getting this. There are two narratives here and it's obvious each side will choose the one that suits them.

Well, sure there are many logical arguments why they would make public that they either nothing like shortly after the referendum or proposals based on the Eurogroup ones and made the good stuff secret behind closed doors.

 

[mnz]

But it is, because debt relief was ruled out.

A haircut was ruled out, relief is in after a first review.

edit: Don't expect any drastic concessions, though.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

A haircut was ruled out, relief is in after a first review.

Interest relief is not actually that helpful, though. It's only useful if the Greek economy is in a better position when it was required to pay interest than it would have been otherwise. Under current conditions, that looks unlikely. It's also the definition of kicking the can down the road.

 

[Theonik]

Or a provincial moron, unknowingly (to him) puppeted by a bunch of vultures looking for a quick easy meal.

Doubtful. Most politicians are not actually dumb much less corrupt ones. In that case he's allowing the feast on condition he gets what he wants.

This guy almost managed to get a law through that would've allowed him to blast planes out of the sky anywhere if he thought terrorists were on board and wanted to use the army within the country at his command

Holy shit.

 

[Y2Kev]

If they sell off the energy management infrastructure so that it is ultimately controlled by someone else, could, like, losing power be a consequence of not paying their bills in 3 years? Would this just twist the knife further?

 

[snap0212]

This guy almost managed to get a law through that would've allowed him to blast planes out of the sky anywhere if he thought terrorists were on board and wanted to use the army within the country at his command

While I'm absolutely against this, don't forget that the US, for example, trains pilots to do exactly that in those cases. I think the first time the idea came up in Germany was years after articles about US pilots being trained to do this showed up. It's not like the Germans came up with that evil idea all by themselves.

 

[Ether_Snake]

If they sell off the energy management infrastructure so that it is ultimately controlled by someone else, could, like, losing power be a consequence of not paying their bills in 3 years? Would this just twist the knife further?

Those companies would have to be bailed out by foreign countries in some "aid" package, like thry did this time with their banks, I guess.

 

[Aureon]

Today's fun fact:
France + Italy + Spain + Portugal are actually providing (exactly) 51% of the ESM founding.
Greece also has 3%, more than Finland.

 

[OctoMan]

Sounds like an extension of the same crisis to me. Year after year after year...

 

[Theonik]

If they sell off the energy management infrastructure so that it is ultimately controlled by someone else, could, like, losing power be a consequence of not paying their bills in 3 years? Would this just twist the knife further?

The government just loses another major revenue stream. Which makes them more reliant to taxes thus makes their loan repayments more difficult.

 

[ElTorro]

I would have bet money that this deal would never be reached. Tsipras really collapsed completely. All this nonsense over the last months was for absolutely nothing. The Greek people should really throw him out of office for this nonsensical gambling strategy.

Man, I really hope that somehow this is not another kick of the can down the road, and that Greece can implement structural reforms that fix their administration and kickstart their economy. I seriously doubt it though. The current government will not be exhilarated to implement such reforms, and that is always a bad precondition. I am sure that we will be at this point again in a few months when certain points will have been revoked or weakened again by the administration. And of course, a mild budget deficit would have likely helped Greece more than a target budget surplus.

Assuming that this deal passes the parliaments. It looks like the other Eurozone states won't be a roadblock, given how complete their "victory" has been here.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

They'd sell on your debt to someone else. Your debt is their asset.

I thought they'd have to pay me money instead :-(

Spoiler

I'm only kidding, I'm not overdrawn.

 

[ElTorro]

Also, relevant for the German gaffers, from their favorite magazine (just joking):

BILD is disgusting. I remember one of my old teachers telling us that he admires how they can put so much information into so few words. WTF...

The majority of German publications is more center-left, though, and they are much more critical of what has been achieved today.