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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I mean, they'd have to invade Greece to make it work in the first place - how are they going to make it illegal tender in a country they have no control over?
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Greece to hold referendum on austerity measures 5 July
- Thread starter Coriolanus
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I mean, they'd have to invade Greece to make it work in the first place - how are they going to make it illegal tender in a country they have no control over?
Negotiator
Member
Financial VS Military kind of punishment. There's no need to invade Greece (it's not Ukraine).
I think the EU as a whole could crush Greece with embargos, they don't need armies.
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Greece would be (temporarily) self-embargoing by switching currencies as is, given they don't have time to roll out the drachma before the default.
CyclopsRock
Member
Yup, you're right, my bad. The thing they need to get right is the total number vs the exchange rate, as per Crab et als posts.
Coriolanus
Banned
Out of morbid curiosity, what do you think that declaring a currency that you currently own instantly not legal tender would entail?
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Heh, I thought that's what you were implying to begin with. You should have kept quiet and hoped nobody noticed.
That's exactly what I´m talking about too. They would take Euro bills, rubber stamp something on them and use them until actual new bills are produced.
The problem is, that only very few of those actual bills are in the hands of the Greek banks and thus the Greek government.
Stop stop this is rubbish,
Thanks. Guess I'll see when it's from Twitter (or just read Paul Mason's summary later).
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Oh, yes, I see what you're saying. I might be wrong, but I think Greece has the capacity to print their own Euros (as in, having the printing presses and minting facilities and do it already when given permission by the ECB), they just don't because they're not allowed to by the ECB. If so, they can just print "Greek Euros" until the swap. I might be wrong - I'm not actually sure if Greece literally imports the physical notes and coins or not - but it seems unlikely.
Negotiator
Member
More rubbish than calling Greece the "anus" of Europe?
Let's see what happens if Greece doesn't comply and/or starts doing something crazy (like printing Y banknotes without ECB's consent).
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Basically nothing? If Greece prints Euros without the ECB's consent, they'll just have capital controls placed on them until they stop doing so and move on to drachmas.
Theonik
Member
If it takes Greece 6 months to print new currency and properly phase it in. Do you think the ECB can create new Euros quicker? Are you suggesting that, they would beginning Greece's default, they would make the money they are using into non-legal tender and issue new money?
PumpkinSpice
Banned
So what happened in the last few hours? Did Tsipras actually cave?
Both sides (yes and no) will eat him alive for different reasons. Political suicide and resignation. Perhaps he will be able to re-unite the nation into the common cause of hating him?
Watchmen ending all along?
You can keep tabs here if you'd like. We are still waiting for his supposed new address to the people and the verdict of the ECB council, and for the new Eurogroup to start. http://www.theguardian.com/business...rs-consider-next-moves-after-imf-default-live
Negotiator
Member
What do you think would happen in that case?
Greece is alone vs 18 Eurozone countries.
If those countries decide to print totally new banknotes, then who can stop them?
Nobody knows, there is no official statement. Tsipras also seems to change his mind two times a day.
If Greece prints Euros their entire economy will collapse; what they would be printing would be illegal tender - basically a hot potato for whoever owns it and finds out that theres no value backing their cash.
Trading with Greece would be brought to an end purely because everyone would close ranks with them, trading only through trusted banks and ultimately taking all precautions to identify the fake cash from the real cash.
Its not worth discussing.
Trading with Greece would be brought to an end purely because everyone would close ranks with them, trading only through trusted banks and ultimately taking all precautions to identify the fake cash from the real cash.
Its not worth discussing.
A day? How about every hour or so!
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
The fact it takes 6 months to do and Greece would have a headstart? It wouldn't even fuss Greece anyway, if they switched currency, which they can't do immediately, they'd have to put capital controls on themselves to begin with so they'd be isolated anyway. I don't understand what you're trying to argue.
nature boy
Member
That would be beyond North Korea levels of insanity. They won't do that.
Coriolanus
Banned
That depends entirely on how much stock you put on the 11th Dimension Chess theory.
If he proposed the new terms fully expecting the germans to tell him to get fucked, he played quite the nice trick
If he proposed the new terms expecting them to be accepted, then he tried to capitulate and save some last bit of power, but got rekt.
You are suggesting that all 18 countries would embark on an absolutely massive task just to tell one particular player to go get fucked beyond all reasonable sense.
anonymous_abc
Member
What about all the non-Greeks who have cash at hand?
And how quickly do you think this sort of thing could be pulled off?
Theonik
Member
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It wouldn't be illegal tender in Greece. Everywhere else, yes, which is why Greece would impose capital controls. The value backing the cash is the fact that Greece is a country that contains 11,000,000 people of whom about two-thirds work 9 til 5, five days a week, producing goods other people want to buy. This (obviously) isn't a permanent solution, it's essentially Greece saying "we don't have our own coins or notes yet, so we're going to use the existing coins and notes, which now hold this value. Because other countries use the same coins and notes, but at a different value, we're going to have to prevent exchange/they're going to prevent exchange with us. This lasts until we can bring in our own coins and notes".
They might even do something pretty basic like requiring "Greek Euros" be crimped so that they are permanently distinguishable from Euros.
Yes. Trading would have to be brought to an end, until Greece could implement the new drachmas in about five months time. Not a pretty position to be in, but that's what happens when you don't have the capacity to produce an entirely new currency to schedule.
Coriolanus
Banned
Tsipras speech about to start.
And keeps receiving more money from everywhere due to all those pesky tourists, ensuring that a foreign currency flow would never completely halt.
And keeps receiving more money from everywhere due to all those pesky tourists, ensuring that a foreign currency flow would never completely halt.
Negotiator
Member
They would be able to exchange them in their countries. Greece wouldn't be able to do the same, especially if they have strict capital controls.
My point is that it's very easy to invalidate those 45 billion euros that are stuffed in mattresses... that's why no invasion is needed these days.
Btw, in case people are not aware of it, the ECB is already replacing the old euro banknotes: http://www.new-euro-banknotes.eu/
Greece could simply not get the new 20 euro banknotes. The old ones will stop being legal tender in due time.
Since beginning of the ELA credits military cargo airplanes brought Euro bills by the truck load.
Coriolanus
Banned
Sorta. Greek euro coins are made in the finnish mint, but the Bank of Greece has to produce part of the notes it uses.
I never called Greece that some other poster did and Greece can't print not can any other print notes without the consent of the ECB
Ether_Snake
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If Greece signs a proposal, how long before we are back in the same situation? 6 months? Spanish elections are in December...
Tsipras will probably complain that the Eurogroup is refusing to work with him and has rejected his proposals, not mentioning the fact that all his proposals referred to a program that does not exist anymore. Are they doing anything beside publicity stunts?
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Well, that would be when they bring the drachma in (assuming no Eurozone support). In the intermediary stage, given they'd have to use Euro coins and notes as drachma stand-ins, things would be more difficult (if they decided to print "Greek Euros" to make sure circulation remained high). They wouldn't be allowed to trade with other countries while this happened as otherwise it'd just invite arbitrage or a wholesale currency collapse in Greece. There's an article on it here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18279522 (well, the article's a bit vague as it was written some time ago, but you should get the drift). Personally, I think the six month time-scale is pretty alarmist. Greece has been prepping for a drachma return. I don't think the interim period would be particularly long; but during that interim period exports/imports (including tourism) would effectively stop thanks to said capital controls.
The alternative is they just continue to use the Euro at the current rate until they can bring the drachma in but I'm not sure they have enough Euros to do that.
This is all a bit hypothetical though because honestly, in the event of a currency switch, it's in the interests of the Eurozone to allow Greece to transition smoothly and I imagine the Eurozone would just give them the Euros they needed until Greece had prepared the drachmas - after all, that's less Euros than they're currently set to "give" them in the form of a haircut. The above is just assuming that, as tapantaola said, the Eurozone decided to just fuck Greece for the sake of fucking Greece, which I think is basically fanciful nonsense. The Eurozone fucks countries for profit, not fun.
Coriolanus
Banned
This is incorrect.
ClosingADoor
Member
"Very easy" here means 18 other countries going through massive and expensive programs to have their citizens all exchange their money. Trillions upon trillions of euro's. You are delusional if you think that will happen.
Replacing older bank notes is always going on. It does not mean the old notes can not be used anymore. Maybe in a decade or so.
Which one didn't?
Coriolanus
Banned
One of his proposals was for an entirely new program. Presented while Juncker said that the door was open.
Thus, not *all* his proposals.
But your implying that this could be done really quickly but it couldn't. Of course old bank notes will be replaced but what our saying would be too expensive and time consuming. The northern bank here in northern Ireland can print their own sterling like other banks here and they had to replace their notes quickly as 20+ million was stolen by the ira and the easiest way they done it was to change the colour of the ink. what your saying is crazy
Negotiator
Member
Alright then. Greece has nothing to be afraid of!
I was always under the impression that Greece outsourced its production. I might be wrong though.
Edit: Talking about printed bills, not coins.
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Regardless, it's largely scare-mongering. If Greece said "we're switching to the drachmas, but can't produce enough now. Either you let us produce enough Euros to maintain circulation at present levels until the switch-over in three months or so, or we print without your permission at a lesser value", I imagine the ECB would just give them permission. It's less trouble than having to hunt down and destroy any stray "Greek Euros" that make it into the Eurozone.
Negotiator
Member
They would likely just use Euro banknotes that are already in storage and stamp them somehow.
Coriolanus
Banned
Apparently any note with a Y was produced by the bank of Greece, and they've been producing +- 2.4% of the euro banknotes since 2008.
The president of the nationwide federation of hoteliers Yannis Retsos has complained that tour operators from the USA have refused to make payments towards Greek hoteliers, claiming that the payments would be seized, due to the non-payment of the IMF loan installment.
Please read the news before linking next time.
Negotiator
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