Theonik
Member
It's almost like you are suggesting countries should have their own currencies.
Edit: Beaten
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Greece to hold referendum on austerity measures 5 July
- Thread starter Coriolanus
- Start date
- Status
Edit: Beaten
TheRagnCajun
Member
The EU doesn't want Greece to leave, but I don't understand the mentality that Greece has all this leverage . They have none. Right now they are nothing but a liability, and they will get slaughtered if they leave the EU.
My words exactly!
Member
How about a poll that is more likely to be unbiased...
by Gallup International, January 2015 on European attitude in between member states:
http://www.orb-international.com/perch/resources/europeanattitudesresults.pdf
by Gallup International, January 2015 on European attitude in between member states:
http://www.orb-international.com/perch/resources/europeanattitudesresults.pdf
nature boy
Member
Slovakia Fin Min:
Geez. Slovakia going all in.
superdeluxe
Member
What is the worst case scenario if Greece decides to leave the Euro, or for that matter, if Europe bails out Greece
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It's more likely than not, although Tsipras obviously can't admit as such because it weakens his bargaining position.
A LOT of bond holders are going to get wiped out. Hope your work's 401k isn't invested in international bonds.
Sephiroth503
Member
Doesn't seem like he's wrong tbh.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Most Greek debt is held by IMF and ECB at this point. They could selectively default on just those and not the remaining bondholder debt they have.
Vade
Member
It is a Mexican standoff with little to no potential for resolution baring time to cause the dominoes to drop. To not believe that Greece does not have significant leverage even in the hole they have dig is a fool's errand. Neither end game is great for Greece ,but default and dive out of the EU has more economic benefits than more trimming. The few good industries Greece has: Rocks, shipping, and agriculture would love the weak whatever currency they could run with.
Vlodril
Member
the fear mongering from the media is insane. i have not seen the like for the last 20 years at least.
i was listening tragas ( a greek "journalist") this morning on my way to the hospital and the guy was insane. from howling about tsipras etc to basically gaming journalist hey i am saying this thing here (people in siriza are against tsipras, the government is over) with no evidence whatsoever but tsipras can come and say no if its not true.
Every single media channel i see except ert (public television) is so gleefully going ham. your children will die like in argentina in the streets etc etc.
amazing. and i am pretty sure its not needed the yes vote will get it easily because people are afraid and we as greeks are good at complaining but not acting when the time comes (spartans in words but when the time is night we turn into yes effendim yes men).
I am disgusted by everyone. Obviously there are no good solutions for us but everyone that was complaining until now about the corrupt politicians (like they took power by themselves and people did not vote for them. repeatedly) that keep taking economic measures that killed the people and everyone is poor is now well ok eipame kamia malakia na perasei i ora mesa stin evropi pepdia (basically into europe no matter what for non greeks).
These are the same people that will start screaming about the corrupt politicians that defy the will of the people the minute a deal is made. Hypocrites all of us. Everyone wants a revolution but without any sacrifices kthanx .
i was listening tragas ( a greek "journalist") this morning on my way to the hospital and the guy was insane. from howling about tsipras etc to basically gaming journalist hey i am saying this thing here (people in siriza are against tsipras, the government is over) with no evidence whatsoever but tsipras can come and say no if its not true.
Every single media channel i see except ert (public television) is so gleefully going ham. your children will die like in argentina in the streets etc etc.
amazing. and i am pretty sure its not needed the yes vote will get it easily because people are afraid and we as greeks are good at complaining but not acting when the time comes (spartans in words but when the time is night we turn into yes effendim yes men).
I am disgusted by everyone. Obviously there are no good solutions for us but everyone that was complaining until now about the corrupt politicians (like they took power by themselves and people did not vote for them. repeatedly) that keep taking economic measures that killed the people and everyone is poor is now well ok eipame kamia malakia na perasei i ora mesa stin evropi pepdia (basically into europe no matter what for non greeks).
These are the same people that will start screaming about the corrupt politicians that defy the will of the people the minute a deal is made. Hypocrites all of us. Everyone wants a revolution but without any sacrifices kthanx .
old
Member
Oh this is great. Tsipras comes crawling and waving the flag saying he's ready to accept.
And then Merkel denies by saying she's waiting until after the referendum on Sunday, which is for a past proposal that I'm not even sure is on the table anymore. Also she knows the delay is going to be excruciating for Greece.
Merkel is not to be fucked with.
And then Merkel denies by saying she's waiting until after the referendum on Sunday, which is for a past proposal that I'm not even sure is on the table anymore. Also she knows the delay is going to be excruciating for Greece.
Merkel is not to be fucked with.
My words exactly!
Member
^^^ How do you know that?
Great post, i agree. It's time we show our true colors. It is "Put up, or shut up" time for us.
Great post, i agree. It's time we show our true colors. It is "Put up, or shut up" time for us.
Imagine if ERT hadn't re-opened. It is disgusting however from both sides, it is clear that ERT is the government's propaganda tool as much as the private channels are the tool of the other side.
Coriolanus
Banned
Can't damage something that was never there, mate.
Theonik
Member
It wouldn't be Greece without partisan media.
Vlodril
Member
yea good luck trying to find some actual information. everything gets reported (well placed source from my ass said blah blah). Add to that the general screaming from every party not in government and good luck for the greek people to actually decide anything on facts.
Its going to be are you scared enough? vote yes. are you not scared enough? vote no.
Problem for me is either way the greeks need to shut up and actually work for something better and i don't think we have it in us (for all the self congratulating we do about our long history of beating the odds etc. in the end its all hot air).
Better times will not come until we accept the system is broken and needs to be build from scratch and that will mean pain for the people (not the people havent suffered already of course. we have but to no avail because the root issues are not even touched, which was my hope when we first entered in agreement with the troika).
Citizens just applied to the Hellenic Council of State (the supreme administrative court of Greece) to block referendum from happening, as unconstitutional. Extraordinary meeting at Friday noon (Greek time) to decide. This court has the power to block the referendum from happening I think.
I don't believe this will ever happen. It is clear this is not what the troika ever intended to do, and sadly it is also clear that it is not in the top priorities of the recen government either. We are fucked.
I don't believe this will ever happen. It is clear this is not what the troika ever intended to do, and sadly it is also clear that it is not in the top priorities of the recen government either. We are fucked.
The creditors are understandably tired of the games this Greek government plays.
They had months to move negotiations forward. Instead, they chose to go "lalala, I can't hear you, fuck you" and ignore their creditors, including those backed by democratic mandates. Then, days before shit is about to hit the fan, they rush the first draft of a proposal full of unspecific measures and submit it in the middle of the night, just hours before the official meeting. They changed their position from hour to hour while accusing all parties involved with aggressive rhetoric as being anti-democratic blackmailers, apparently just trolling everyone and gambling that the creditors will lose their minds and give in, out of fear that Europe might explode. And after the creditors made big concessions in every issue, they still just left the table and went forth with that referendum without telling anyone. The irony is mind-boggeling.
This nonsensical referendum and all events surrounding it are just the tip of the iceberg in one big circus show.
They got themselves into the current situation. Why should Europe validate their reckless and disrespectful "diplomatic" tactics.
I thought I had a handle on this, but now I don't.
Bookies paying out on yes? Is it that certain? If that's the case then Tsipras is done, and polls indicating that would be the reason he wrote that letter acceding to demands, and also why Germany wants to wait. Because he's done. I thought he was doing a good job, but you've got to know that the people will back you if you call a referendum like that.
So its looking like: A yes vote, Tsipras out, pliant yes-men in, all creditors repaid, and a half-century of crippling austerity for Greece. Enjoy it, guys. Enjoy.
But they were faced with a problem I've been faced with before when negotiating. What do you do when
a) You need to reach a deal
b) Both parties have a 'break point' that they simply can't (not won't, CAN'T) go past which is nowhere near a compromise, and thus there is no middle ground.
What do you do except dance around and delay? You need to reach a deal, but there's no deal to be reached. No one will budge, but no one will leave the table. That's what's been happening here, and it's clear that the only two outcomes are the EU waiting for Tsipras to go or Greece leaving the EZ under Tsipras. It's clear that no other deal could be done.
Since the polls appear to show that the latter option won't happen, Tsipras finally realises the game is up and makes concessions, but it's too late. It looks like he's lost.
This
Bookies paying out on yes? Is it that certain? If that's the case then Tsipras is done, and polls indicating that would be the reason he wrote that letter acceding to demands, and also why Germany wants to wait. Because he's done. I thought he was doing a good job, but you've got to know that the people will back you if you call a referendum like that.
So its looking like: A yes vote, Tsipras out, pliant yes-men in, all creditors repaid, and a half-century of crippling austerity for Greece. Enjoy it, guys. Enjoy.
But they were faced with a problem I've been faced with before when negotiating. What do you do when
a) You need to reach a deal
b) Both parties have a 'break point' that they simply can't (not won't, CAN'T) go past which is nowhere near a compromise, and thus there is no middle ground.
What do you do except dance around and delay? You need to reach a deal, but there's no deal to be reached. No one will budge, but no one will leave the table. That's what's been happening here, and it's clear that the only two outcomes are the EU waiting for Tsipras to go or Greece leaving the EZ under Tsipras. It's clear that no other deal could be done.
Since the polls appear to show that the latter option won't happen, Tsipras finally realises the game is up and makes concessions, but it's too late. It looks like he's lost.
This
You are not being entirely fair, it's not like the creditors were saints in the negotiations either. They never intended to make any compromises, and they moved the goalposts whenever the Greek government made concessions. Trolling was happening on both sides, along with constant good cop/bad cop tactics.
And we just resorted to the blame game ourselves.
That's populism 101, in my opinion.
By letting the people decide what to do next, Tsipras cannot totally lose:
- If the no wins, the far left wing parties from Syriza will applaud him.
- If the yes wins, the left/centre wing parties from Syriza will applaud him.
People didn't seem to like that the Eurogroup didn't want the referendum and now it's bad that she wants to wait for the result, apparently. Madness.
If Yes wins, the Greek government has to basically endorse a deal they didn't want. Schäuble said that that's not how things work in Europe usually, he talked about "ownership" (he used the English word) of such deals. Meaning governments have to support the deals they sign up on.
That's why I could see Tsipras leaving if Yes wins.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
I don't understand how Tsipras can say that a no vote isn't leaving the eurozone.
They know that
a) The other side will not budge from the basic offered terms
b) They must follow the will of the people rejecting said terms
Therefore, as there will be no deal to do, and no money, how can they not leave the EZ? What the hell does Tsipras expect to happen if he brings a no vote to the troika? Here, the people said no, give us a better deal? At this stage the troika won't listen to a word he says and just wish he'd fuck off. If they haven't budged until now then they simply never will.
If it's a yes, he has to step down as the people will have essentially voted against his original mandate for being elected. They will have chosen crippling austerity over short-term chaos.
I just wish Tsirpas would get a fucking grip and say 'We're out, we can't get any concessions so if the vote is no we're done with the Euro and we move forward along those lines.' Only way to move forward in event of a no vote. What he's doing looks moronic, and he's now lost the media narrative completely, which he was managing well until just a couple of days ago.
They know that
a) The other side will not budge from the basic offered terms
b) They must follow the will of the people rejecting said terms
Therefore, as there will be no deal to do, and no money, how can they not leave the EZ? What the hell does Tsipras expect to happen if he brings a no vote to the troika? Here, the people said no, give us a better deal? At this stage the troika won't listen to a word he says and just wish he'd fuck off. If they haven't budged until now then they simply never will.
If it's a yes, he has to step down as the people will have essentially voted against his original mandate for being elected. They will have chosen crippling austerity over short-term chaos.
I just wish Tsirpas would get a fucking grip and say 'We're out, we can't get any concessions so if the vote is no we're done with the Euro and we move forward along those lines.' Only way to move forward in event of a no vote. What he's doing looks moronic, and he's now lost the media narrative completely, which he was managing well until just a couple of days ago.
It's a death spiral. Hard to believe actually.
How is waiting for the vote disingenuous? It's the opposite to me.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
The Greek government can't just jump from idea to idea - they decided to hold this referendum, its not disingenuous to say they must now hold it.
Days have been wasted because they wanted to hold it, can't step away now. The Greeks called the referendum with no extension in place, they made that decision and need to stick with it.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Well yeah, because pulling that card brought the ongoing last-minute negotiations to a halt for a vote that should've happened months earlier. But now that it's going to happen anyway, shouldn't it get some respect?
Theonik
Member
This is a root problem with Syriza's election mandate. The Greek people do not want to leave the Euro. It's a counter-intuitive situation from the start.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I think Tsipras is hoping that a) isn't true. We'll find out 3 days after the referendum if it is indeed a NO.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I imagine it's a junk question. Pollsters throw those in on online ones occasionally to either make sure people are paying attention instead of random ticking boxes, or to weed out people who have no idea what they are talking about and submit opinions anyway.
Either that or someone done fuck up.
Osiris
I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
The problem is that Tsipras sees brinkmanship as a winning tactic, when the Eurogroup has shown they are not interested in bowing to that kind of threat, he's running out of cliffs to threaten to throw himself (and the Greek people) off and doesn't seem to have any other ideas how to proceed.
It's not n-dimensional chess, it's cluelessness, desperation and panic.
Coriolanus
Banned
The problem is that the creditors see brinkmanship as a winning tactic, when Syriza has shown they are not interested in bowing to that kind of threat, they're running out of cliffs to threaten to throw them (and the Greek people) off and don't seem to have any other ideas how to proceed beyond "more austerity".
It's not n-dimensional chess, it's cluelessness, desperation and panic.
It's not n-dimensional chess, it's cluelessness, desperation and panic.
Fuck that, it was a brilliant move. Greece has done everything the troika has asked for and ended up listing a quarter is their economy. Now they need to be firm.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
You say they're not interested, but they've consistently made (admittedly minor concessions) each time Greece has made another wobble. If I were Tsipras, I'd be threatening to jump all the way until 11:00 PM on Saturday 8th. Hell, if the offer isn't good enough, I'd even jump. I mean, the troika's current offer is shit. Austerity for at least the next 15 years after Greece has already lost a quarter of their economy? Gee, Miss Lagarde, that's such a generous offer, our sincere thanks with a fuck you too on top!
QuicheFontaine
Member
Aha, I've heard of US practitioners doing a similar thing in my field (patents). Check out claim 9 of this application...
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Heh, I laughed.
Yeah, there's been some good ones in British polling. My favourite recent one (I'll see if I can find the tables) was:
Thanks for this. Very interesting statistics.
It's interesting that, besides Greece, the countries that have the Euro as their currency now would, despite the last few years, choose to keep it rather than have a national currency. The UK's 8% approval for the Euro is amusing.
I'm not sure if I would call it brilliant, but they're certainly pushing the limits up until the very end. Not balking like the previous regimes, unfortunately this is something Greek leadership needed to do 5 years ago, when they were holding all the cards, and a Greek default would have really hurt.
Coriolanus
Banned
Most of the population not understanding the importance of monetary sovereignty isn't exactly anything new.
Even when you've four countries serving as living examples.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Yup. If this had happened in 2011/2012, Greece might actually be in an okay place right now.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked