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[embalm]

okay, so if there was an empty board and you play grim patron and mad bomber, what's the expected value for the number of patrons? what's the probability of ending with 3 patrons?

or better, madder bomber.

For each bomb its:
33% chance before the first hit. (1 patron vs 2 faces)
50% chance after the first hit. (2 patron vs 2 faces)
60% chance if both hit earlier (3 patron vs 2 faces)

I think that makes it about a 10% chance to end up with 3 patrons. That is assuming each spawned patron is also a target for the bomber, other wise the math changes.

 

[Ashodin]

So when can we preorder? Because I'm buying with cash.

 

[Nirolak]

So when can we preorder? Because I'm buying with cash.

March 19th.

 

[slayn]

Don't forget that abilities like Patron's "triggers" in between each bomb, in the same way Mad Bomber against Acolyte of Pain is no bueno.

Each trigger increases the chance that at least one Grim Patron is hit.

yes that's how I'm assuming it would work. It makes the 'expected' number of patrons to be 2 (original + 1 extra OR original gets hit 3 times and spawned 2 in the process).

but 8.4% of the time you will end up with 4 patrons alive on the board.

 

[Ashodin]

March 19th.

Yus, after my birthday!

 

[homeworkfilms]

FIghting legend 22 at rank 5 seems a little off to me.

 

[squidyj]

For each bomb its:
33% chance before the first hit. (1 patron vs 2 faces)
50% chance after the first hit. (2 patron vs 2 faces)
60% chance if both hit earlier (3 patron vs 2 faces)

I think that makes it about a 10% chance to end up with 3 patrons. That is assuming each spawned patron is also a target for the bomber, other wise the math changes.

0.33 * 0.5 * 0.6 - 0.33 * 0.25 * 0.2
0.099 - 0.0165
0.0825
8.33~% chance to end up with 4 patrons. The chance of 3 patrons getting hit - the chance of the same patron getting hit with every bomb.

 

[Tacitus_]

Have they clarified whether you need to preorder the whole thing to get the cardback?

 

[Magnus]

I wish this was real:

Mind Quickening Mage Spell
5 mana
You may use your hero power once during your opponent's next turn

 

[MThanded]

I wish this was real:

Mind Quickening Mage Spell
5 mana
You may use your hero power once during your opponent's next turn

Why? that makes no sense at all with the way the game works. Maybe during a boss encounter but not in pvp.

All of the play is essentially asynchronous. How would you be able to use your hero power during your opponents turn?

 

[slayn]

I wish this was real:

Mind Quickening Mage Spell
5 mana
You may use your hero power once during your opponent's next turn

While cool, this kind of card is impossible to implement due to the asynchronous nature of hearthstone.

 

[Skux]

They had better fix Warsong Commander for the expansion to allow ridiculous Grim Patron shenanigans.

 

[embalm]

0.33 * 0.5 * 0.6 - 0.33 * 0.25 * 0.2
0.099 - 0.0165
0.0825
8.33~% chance to end up with 4 patrons. The chance of 3 patrons getting hit - the chance of the same patron getting hit with every bomb.

Just came back to update with that. I forgot about the fatal damage.

Care to break down the Madder Bombers chance to fill the board?

 

[squidyj]

EV for Mad Bomber is 2.15

29.63% chance of ending with 1 patron
34.26% chance of ending with 2 patrons
16.67% chance of ending with 3 patrons
08.33% chance of ending with 4 patrons.

 

[Tacitus_]

Oh holy fuck this Root cup match. Mage coin hero powers on turn 5 not to overdraw

 

[Kapow]

Oh holy fuck this Root cup match. Mage coin hero powers on turn 5 not to overdraw

Amazing match lol

The entire match theyve had 10 cards each and theyre just casting spells on themselves lmao

 

[Tacitus_]

lol the fucking spectator mode kicked them out because the match was too slow :lol

 

[squidyj]

The Madder bomber math is harder

The chance that he fills the board is:

The chance that he hits 5 times and kills no patrons
+
The chance that he hits 6 times and kills no patrons
+
The chance that he hits 6 times and kills one patron
and that killing blow doesn't come on the last hit.


I'm not sure I want to bother calculating that.

 

[hypersheep]

You know, I wouldn't mind if the song in the Black Rock Mountain trailer was extended a bit >_>

 

[Kapow]

Probably the longest match ive ever seen

 

[Dahbomb]

Man what a fucking game that was. Plays after plays.

Time for Mill Druid boyz!

 

[Tacitus_]

Mill druid now?

 

[Kapow]

Burned the coldlight LOL

 

[Professor Lich]

Acolyte of Pain draws when he dies, right? I do wonder if Patron will counter clears and just be a permanent 3/3.

 

[slayn]

Acolyte of Pain draws when he dies, right? I do wonder if Patron will counter clears and just be a permanent 3/3.

The wording is not the same. Acolyte procs on taking damage. Patron procs on surviving damage

 

[Gotchaye]

The Madder bomber math is harder

The chance that he fills the board is:

The chance that he hits 5 times and kills no patrons
+
The chance that he hits 6 times and kills no patrons
+
The chance that he hits 6 times and kills one patron
and that killing blow doesn't come on the last hit.


I'm not sure I want to bother calculating that.

Monte carlo that shit.

 

[Professor Lich]

The wording is not the same. Acolyte procs on taking damage. Patron procs on surviving damage

Oh yeah, missed that. Thanks.

 

[Tacitus_]

Acolyte of Pain draws when he dies, right? I do wonder if Patron will counter clears and just be a permanent 3/3.

Does not. You can SW him (and other forms of "destroy minion") to disable the card draw.

 

[embalm]

The Madder bomber math is harder

I'm not sure I want to bother calculating that.

I started to work it out. I quit really soon.

Chances are good that you will have a few Patrons on the table. It's a play that I would be ok with if I were a player.

 

[Dahbomb]

LMAO this game was over like 5 turns ago. Dude should GG at this point.

 

[Professor Lich]

Does not. You can SW him (and other forms of "destroy minion") to disable the card draw.

Yeah, if Patron worked the same way, only SWain/Assassinate/Poly/Hex, Deathwing/Doomsayer/Twisting Nether and Silence would be the way to get rid of it. That'd be fun.

 

[Dahbomb]

That Coldlight top dick for the win!

I would've Panda's that Coldlight at the end as well.

 

[Tacitus_]

I'm not sure whether to feel disgusted or impressed by how chakki won those games. THREE FUCKING MILL DEKCS

 

[squidyj]

Acolyte of Pain draws when he dies, right? I do wonder if Patron will counter clears and just be a permanent 3/3.

the wording on patron is pretty clear, if the patron dies to the damage, nothing happens.

 

[Gotchaye]

Monte carlo that shit.

Madder Bomber on to a board with nothing but a Grim Patron seems to have about a:
9% chance of 1
19% chance of 2
26% chance of 3
24% chance of 4
14% chance of 5
6% chance of 6
1% chance of 7 (this is actually impossible, I guess, unless it's the other guy's Madder Bomber or Grim Patron)

 

[Dahbomb]

I'm not sure whether to feel disgusted or impressed by how chakki won those games. THREE FUCKING MILL DEKCS

People laughed at me when I talked about Mill decks back in the day man.

I really liked his Mill Druid deck though, I think I am going to copy his. I had Force of Nature instead of Doomsayers and Sheep which are faster options to handle early game aggression.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFjguLQXI2U

Kripparian talks about Blackrock.

 

[Joco]

Seems to me Hungry Dragon is going to essentially kill the use of Sludge Belcher.

 

[Dahbomb]

Seems to me Hungry Dragon is going to essentially kill the use of Sludge Belcher.

Nope, Sludge Belcher is better at holding off aggression than Hungry Dragon. Yeah Hungry Dragon gets to kill it for free but so what? It will stop one more attack. Hungry Dragon is kinda worse against aggressive decks because you are filling their board.

 

[Joco]

Nope, Sludge Belcher is better at holding off aggression than Hungry Dragon. Yeah Hungry Dragon gets to kill it for free but so what? It will stop one more attack. Hungry Dragon is kinda worse against aggressive decks because you are filling their board.

I suppose that's true. I guess Sludge Belcher is at least something to slow it down.

 

[Majine]

Poor Trump

 

[gutshot]

That's hilarious.

 

[clav]

Poor Trump

maloongngngngnggnnrgrngngngrn

 

[johnsmith]

No free wing this time.

 

[TP17]

Just had another 11 win arena run, I'll never get to 12 :'(

Absolutely destroyed in the final game.

 

[Cipherr]

People actually ran BRD?

Serious question? Absolutely.

 

[Mobius and pet octopus]

I remember playing through BRD more than a couple times. Especially molten core and that other raid (black wing lair?). I wasn't even that into raiding, but at the time the only good gear came from there... which was frustrating as hell.

 

[Slashlen]

Since the 1st wing isn't free this time, the price in gold has jumped up to 3500. I'd really rather just skip the thing, but it's going to have the next OP Undertaker/Boom card. But I probably only earn 450g a week, that's gonna take forever.

Maybe the answer is just to use a cancer deck, concede to stay at low ranks, and grind the gold.

 

[_DrMario_]

After getting my ass handed to me by 3 golden heroes at Rank 18 it dawned on me that there's no point in playing rank until the xpack releases since the ladder will be filled with these fucking losers grinding gold.

 

[johnsmith]

Since the 1st wing isn't free this time, the price in gold has jumped up to 3500. I'd really rather just skip the thing, but it's going to have the next OP Undertaker/Boom card. But I probably only earn 450g a week, that's gonna take forever.

Maybe the answer is just to use a cancer deck, concede to stay at low ranks, and grind the gold.

As long as you don't miss your dailies you should have no problem paying gold for this as long you don't spend any.

 

[Dahbomb]

It's actually pretty easy to grind for the gold. Here was my formula for Naxx:

Do the daily : At least 40 gold
Win 18 matches a day : 60 gold

Do this for a week and you have the 700 gold for one quarter. Repeat for next week before the next quarter.


Alternate playing on Ranked and Casual. Casual gives gold too. Do not spend money on packs and Arena. Arena is a gamble at this state... you need over 6 wins to start being in the profit and you can't always rely on that.