Forced 50 is a myth. Especially in Hearthstone.
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Hearthstone |OT9| Our raid wiped in Icecrown Citadel
- Thread starter ZealousD
- Start date
Forced 50 is a myth. Especially in Hearthstone.
Karsticles
Member
Nope. I refuse to believe that I just fought my first Reno Mage after switching to Quest Mage, and it's the first Reno Mage I've seen since the expansion. Shit is just too coincidental.
BananasWithGuns
Member
It does sound very conspiracy theoryish but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the game did manipulate things in a very minor way to make outcomes more preferable to one player over the other based on recent performance and win/loss.
Though I think it's something much harder to do in Hearthstone as opposed to a lot of other games where they just give you a bunch of half-brains on your team and give the other team an array of super humans.
Though I think it's something much harder to do in Hearthstone as opposed to a lot of other games where they just give you a bunch of half-brains on your team and give the other team an array of super humans.
Gentle Rodriguez
Member
Think about what you're even implying, are you suggesting that the game is matching you up with counters to your deck? How would it even accomplish that? This is straight up confirmation bias.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
If Forced 50 was a real thing, then it's doing a piss poor job.
Obviously skill has alot to do with it. Clash Royale does the same thing-Sometimes it'll keep matching you up against counter decks. But like Hearthstone, that doesn't necessarily mean it will beat you every time. Luck of the draw and personal skill have alot to do with that.
I would believe that the matchmaking forces you against 'bad matchups', that doesn't necessarily mean that, that deck will beat you.
Karsticles
Member
What rank are you?
If Forced 50 was a real thing, then it's doing a piss poor job.
"Forced" is a strong word. The game tries to give you matchups to push your winrate down, but obviously it can't force you to lose.
There are also only so many players - I've seen other charts with ~40% Druid, but you're only at 21.2%.
Reynad thinks the same thing. Reynad's theory is that the game has an aggregate win% of each card against each other card, and it matches decks up as such. He will sometimes even run subpar cards while climbing the ladder because he thinks it tricks the MM coding into giving him easier matchups.
I'm far from the most skilled Hearthstone player in the world. I don't tryhard much at all in ranked so I catch myself making misplays all the time. I've never made legend. If anything, I'm just accidentally exploiting a ranked system that makes it easy for me to farm weaker players in the 10-20 range because their ranked system implements zero MMR at all.
That percentage is how many of the decks that I play are included in my total game pool. So I played 21.2% of my games as Druid and 30.3% of my games as Paladin. That's not the percentage representing my opponents.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
Maybe. Do you play often? It varies by person no doubt.
It's possible. Blizzard probably has an algorithm that can pull data from matchups, and then simply surmise when that deck wins or is beat. Jade Druid for example, is currently a consistent deck with a few deviations. So of course when a new xpac comes out, the algorithm will flounder a bit, but once more and more and more matches are played, and more conclusion logs are recorded, then the algorithm can be used to match up certain decks against other decks in order to maintain that 50% winrate.
Have you never noticed that sometimes you go up against decks that perfectly beat and counter you at every turn? You didn't happen to meet your perfect match, the algorithm simply matched you against your perfect counter.
Mhm. It definitely is a theory. Clash Royale does the same thing-where sometimes it'll keep running the same decks against you and force you to lose just because they counter yours so handedly. I've definitely noticed matches there that make me think 'Ok they're bullshitting me.'
Maybe Hearthstone does the same? I can imagine it does. Sometimes I go up against that deck that has all the answers and just annoys me.
I definitely do not play often. But if the conspiracy theory was true it wouldn't matter.
All this stuff about Blizzard intentionally trying to give you advantages on a game-to-game basis is bull. Implementing a legitimate MMR system would just be way easier to do and would give the same result.
Some decks just simply counter other decks. What would be more surprising is if you didn't occasionally meet your perfect counter.
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
I don't think there is any evidence that ranked is rigged. Reynad has his theories but in this case I think he is wrong, if he is even being serious. It's natural that your winrate drops over time after a good run. You're not going to stay 70-80% winrates against good players. Usually the quality of players I see jumps around rank 2, maybe rank 3. I don't think it's match making, I think it's just better plays and tougher overall as a result of that.
Sometimes you do switch class and it's like, all of a sudden you're not facing that string of druids. But the meta does change in small ways, people change decks too the same way you just did.
Sometimes you do switch class and it's like, all of a sudden you're not facing that string of druids. But the meta does change in small ways, people change decks too the same way you just did.
LyleLanley
Banned
How could you resist adding him?
cartographer
Member
If they had a magic algorithm that could accurately read and model the meta, deck lists, aaccurately and match you with counter decks within the constraints of the ranked system then they probably wouldn't release so many broken or underpowered cards because they could model it ahead of time.
Like they accidentally left 12 KFT cards out of arena because of a checkbox. I don't think they developed Hearthstone Watson.
Karsticles
Member
I think the system mostly exists to help bad players get a good experience. Are you a total idiot who can't win a game? Well, Blizzard will find other idiots for you to fight against to improve you to a 50% winrate no matter what! Now you keep playing the game, having fun, feeling good, and spending money.
This game functions great.
I am not sure how complicated the algorithm is, but Blizzard has a lot of talented programmers.
It's not about a meta. I think the game does something like this:
You are Control Priest. You are winning a lot. Blizzard looks at all aggregate games across the server and checks what other people with similar decks are losing to. It pushes you toward those opponents.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
I kinda wanted to, but I felt it would just be a sad display by him. It wasn't enough he was trying to BM me in the match when he thought he had the upper hand or that he kept reaching the time limit on his turns when he had nothing left to do, at that point you figure that person is just lost and confused.
Maybe
Maybe I'm paranoid
Blizzard has already admitted that the Ranked system as it stands currently is piss poor for new players because half the population is shoved all the way down around Rank 20 and they cannot progress. The only people who benefit from the current system are people like me who play casually but are above average so I just get a ton of wins.
First off, bwahaha, I just milled a priest. They got 2 clerics up at the same time against me spamming weak shaman tokens and minions. Because I'd end up with the healing totem, I could injure multiple minions, and then mill 2-4 cards out of their deck.
Once their hand was full, they lost Shadowreaper Anduin, a Shadow Word Death, an Eternal Servitude, and possibly both Holy Novas. Then they surrendered at around 28 HP. =P
Now, let's address the 50% thing. I've said this previously and I'm not sure anyone argues against it:
If Hearthstone has a hidden elo, which I believe is a common setup, it will try to get you to your skill level. What does your skill level mean? You have even matchups. If you win most of your games, doesn't that mean you're in the wrong skill bracket? You're stomping people, which means you move up and they move down.
I then did 7 MORE games after switching to a different deck and immediately requeueing, and I abruptly got a different opponent breakdown. Same time of day, same rank etc.
Is that too small of a test to be statistically significant? Sure. But I think it's at least reasonable to suspect that Blizzard considers what deck and/or class you're playing when they try to find a fair opponent. You could be an amazing Warrior player but really mediocre at Priest, so if you switch off Priest you might get harder matchups.
Is Blizzard's algorithm advanced enough to say "That's a Pirate Warrior deck rather than a Taunt Warrior deck and therefore we will pick certain archetypes to counter it"? I would be more surprised by that, but there was at least one streamer who thought including a low-winrate card (wolfrider?) affected matchmaking and gave him easier games.
Once their hand was full, they lost Shadowreaper Anduin, a Shadow Word Death, an Eternal Servitude, and possibly both Holy Novas. Then they surrendered at around 28 HP. =P
Now, let's address the 50% thing. I've said this previously and I'm not sure anyone argues against it:
If Hearthstone has a hidden elo, which I believe is a common setup, it will try to get you to your skill level. What does your skill level mean? You have even matchups. If you win most of your games, doesn't that mean you're in the wrong skill bracket? You're stomping people, which means you move up and they move down.
I'd argue not that it's rigged against Karsticles specifically, but that what deck you play (maybe the class?) is somehow factored into the matchmaking algorithm. I've done similar results where I did 7 games with a class, got a certain opponent breakdown (a ton of enemy class X for example). I then did 7 more games with the same deck, almost exactly the same opponent breakdown.
I then did 7 MORE games after switching to a different deck and immediately requeueing, and I abruptly got a different opponent breakdown. Same time of day, same rank etc.
Is that too small of a test to be statistically significant? Sure. But I think it's at least reasonable to suspect that Blizzard considers what deck and/or class you're playing when they try to find a fair opponent. You could be an amazing Warrior player but really mediocre at Priest, so if you switch off Priest you might get harder matchups.
Is Blizzard's algorithm advanced enough to say "That's a Pirate Warrior deck rather than a Taunt Warrior deck and therefore we will pick certain archetypes to counter it"? I would be more surprised by that, but there was at least one streamer who thought including a low-winrate card (wolfrider?) affected matchmaking and gave him easier games.
LyleLanley
Banned
But that's the best. Accept their request, tell them "GG. I love you" and watch the magic happen.
Karsticles
Member
I hit rank 5 on month 2 of being F2P in this game. Certainly, I had a lot of trouble climbing with no "good" cards, but I was able to do it against people who had expensive decks.
With as much power creep as there has been, I'm sure it's harder now. I can't comment on this since I haven't played on a new account since I started a year and a half ago. I just remember being really angry every time someone played Dr. Boom on curve and I didn't have a response, leading me to totally lose board control. Or being unable to break through a Deathlord and losing to it slowly. Or Warlocks playing Reno Jackson on curve. So much salt back then. Being stuck with low-level aggro decks is a miserable experience.
They really need to HotS 2.0 the game to get more people in at this point. It's too frustrating to start now.
Its not exactly top secret that most matchmaking algorithms aspire to have a 50% winrate, or as close as possible. This is basically the industry's gold standard, for a lot of reasons.
Is it much of a conspiracy theory to assume they can look at deck types and matchups to help push wins or losses? I really dont think so.
(Keep in mind Im not suggesting theyre playing with card draw or rng, just which decks play which decks)
Is it much of a conspiracy theory to assume they can look at deck types and matchups to help push wins or losses? I really dont think so.
(Keep in mind Im not suggesting theyre playing with card draw or rng, just which decks play which decks)
cartographer
Member
You're sort of predisposed more than most to try to see patterns or ways in which the game is working against you though. Like you notice all these times when things seem amiss in a way against you but not notice the opposite nearly as much.
Of course, people tend to notice the bad luck and not notice or remark as much about the good luck. I agree that happens to me and I admit that.
However, I'm also a software engineer and game developer, and statistics interest me. So, I tend to like data about this sort of thing, and I think it's totally within the realm of possibility that Blizzard considers some more factors than pure winrate.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I'm pretty sure forced 50% in overwatch is an effect of MMR and SR interacting in weird ways for team creation. MMR moves slow while SR moves fast so they diverge on a win or loss streak. When that happens, and it tries to make two evenly matched teams at the same MMR and SR, that person with the divergence makes the matchmaker want to skew the rest of the team lower compared to the other team to make the team average of the MMR or SR balance out. It basically forces you to be the team carry just because it doesn't know what else to do with you, not because it wants you to lose.
For Hearthstone I remember them saying they match on Rank, MMR, and number of cards in your collection in that order, so a good player will see harder matches at low ranks than others, but it seems to skew very heavily to match on rank first and foremost. I don't think they do any more to force 50/50 than that, and I certainly don't believe they take your active deck into account.
Speaking of which, I think they keep Wild MMR separate from standard, so you see a lot of clearly bad players at rank 18 players when first playing that mode, but that same rank gets noticeably harder as time goes on. Not like rank 5 to legend hard, but like they stop thinking everything with a taunt must be OP.
Karsticles
Member
I don't think Blizzard fucks with your card draw. That would be miserable of them.
On a happy note, only one Skulking Geist today! Yay! I think it's because Jade Druid isn't getting a lot of play in Wild BECAUSE Geist was everywhere. I was 1 star away from rank 2 multiple times tonight, but a combination of factors kept me from progressing. I went all the way down to the bottom of rank 3.
So I picked Beast Hunter, which is a shit deck, and went 3-1 to get back up a bit.
Experienced Jade Druid players: in the mirror, do you think it's better to use your mana to build Jades instead of ramp your mana? I haven't had a lot of mirrors, but one was a pretty clear case where I spent my early game ramping mana and he spent his ramping Jades, and he was always 1 stat ahead of me as a result. I couldn't manage the board because his trades were better, and so I eventually lost.
On a happy note, only one Skulking Geist today! Yay! I think it's because Jade Druid isn't getting a lot of play in Wild BECAUSE Geist was everywhere. I was 1 star away from rank 2 multiple times tonight, but a combination of factors kept me from progressing. I went all the way down to the bottom of rank 3.
So I picked Beast Hunter, which is a shit deck, and went 3-1 to get back up a bit.
Experienced Jade Druid players: in the mirror, do you think it's better to use your mana to build Jades instead of ramp your mana? I haven't had a lot of mirrors, but one was a pretty clear case where I spent my early game ramping mana and he spent his ramping Jades, and he was always 1 stat ahead of me as a result. I couldn't manage the board because his trades were better, and so I eventually lost.
That definitely fits my Wild experience. For the first month or so everything was so easy. It got hard fast.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I wonder if maybe part if it can be explained by minute to minute meta shifts. I wish I had the money to waste on HS replay premium to see how much things change on short timeframes.
But yes, most of it is probably the bias to remember bad things better than good things, which studies show is the natural thing to do.
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
We've been over this before, that's a misconception of how MMR works.
BigJonsson
Member
What cards are considered must craft so far, and what deck types look most promising?
I have 7k dust and Prince Valnar, Shaman DK and Arfus for legendaries
Lich King looks like a must have, and I don't want to craft all the DKs
I have 7k dust and Prince Valnar, Shaman DK and Arfus for legendaries
Lich King looks like a must have, and I don't want to craft all the DKs
Let me try
Malfurion and 2 Ultimate Infestation is the safest bet now
BigJonsson
Member
supervillain
Member
Is anybody playing a deck with the warlock DK?
I'm tempted to craft it but i need a fun deck to convince me.
I'm tempted to craft it but i need a fun deck to convince me.
Defile for Warlock. The Warlock DK is great too if you can survive the onslaught.
Druid DK is super strong.
Geist is a really nice card if you're going down the control route.
Other than that it all boils down to which decks you typically like to play.
Played few games with handlock dk and it was fun.
This one isn't bad: http://www.hearthpwn.com/decks/894131-j4ckiechans-26-2-frozen-throne-control-warlock
It's far from polished but it's a great start at the very least.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
This synergy stuff in arena is so dumb. It's insane how many decks start with either Tol'vir Shapeshifter or Blazecaller or Devilsaur Egg, and it shows by how many opponents are playing them too.
I really want to know why can't they just do what Magic the Gathering does and let us draft more than 30 cards, so we can take risks for synergy without being stuck with it if it doesn't work out.
I really want to know why can't they just do what Magic the Gathering does and let us draft more than 30 cards, so we can take risks for synergy without being stuck with it if it doesn't work out.
A Pretty Panda
fuckin' called it, man
It also happens to burn Hero Cards. This has happened to me.
In 2 days another mission unlocked.
This is what I've been playing and it's been fun.
Starting to see people running Twilight Drakes and Mountain Giants though.
supervillain
Member
This looks kinda weak on the paper.
It's consistent. I guess the Zealots are there to wreck Druid boards.
My version is much closer to old handlock with 2 Twilight Drakes, 2 Mountain Giants and Dirty Rats. I don't ever need that many demons to get value from Bloodreaver.
BananasWithGuns
Member
It's a pretty strong deck. Definitely the most viable thing Warlock has had in quite a while.
Not sure If I really like the Happy Ghouls though.
supervillain
Member
Yeah, that sounds more like a deck that i would play.
Mhhh, i think i'm gonna wait a little bit more before i craft the DK.
Maybe i'm lucky and he'll show up in one of my next packs.
Keyser Soze
Member
I have been bouncing from Rank 6 to Rank 8 and back for the last few days, but somehow have enough wins to hit the gold cap both days. I'd love to be a tad more consistent at this game!