Hillary Clinton has a 68 % chance of winning the election per 538 (Down from 90 %)

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clevbrowns94

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If you have been paying attention, Hillary has been slipping in the polls in the past weeks, and slipping in the 538 Forecast. She was around a 90 percent chance of winning three weeks ago, and now she is at 68 percent in the polls only Forecast (now cast and polls plus are basically the same as well).

Here's Nate Silver's take on it:

Clinton’s ahead, by a margin of about 3 percentage points in an average of national polls, or 4 points in our popular vote composite, which is based on both national polls and state polls. While the race has tightened, be wary of claims that the election is too close to call — that isn’t where the preponderance of the evidence lies, at least for the moment. If one candidate is ahead by 3 or 4 percentage points, there will be occasional polls showing a tied race or her opponent narrowly ahead, along with others showing the candidate with a mid- to high single-digit lead. We’ve seen multiple examples of both of those recently.

In swing states, the race ranges from showing Trump up by 1 point in Iowa to a Clinton lead of about 6 points in her best states, such as Virginia. That’s a reasonably good position for Clinton, but it isn’t quite as safe as it might sound. That’s because the swing states tend to rise and fall together. A further shift of a few points in Trump’s favor, or a polling error of that magnitude, would make the Electoral College highly competitive.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-keeps-shrinking/

I know people will say to calm down, that Hillary's post-convention bump just faded away. But still, this is scary to me. If this Forecast is correct, we have a 1/3 chance of electing who is arguably the worst candidate that either party has put up in decades, centuries, or ever. This could be our Nazi Germany moment. And we can't rely on the Republicans in Congress to do anything to stop Trump if he were to win. Anyone else worried?
 
Nate Silver is literally the only person I listen to regarding election polls. That dude is on point.
 
Like playoff odds in baseball before the last month of the season, it matters relatively little right now. Remember, McCain said "the foundations of the economy are strong" a week before the 2008 market crash, solidifying Obama's win.
 
The ebb and flow of media narratives. 3 weeks ago there was much more bad press and uncertainty surrounding the God Emperor, that could change again.

Polls are interesting but I wouldn't put much faith in them until at least the debates are out of the way
 
clevbrowns94 said:
And we can't rely on the Republicans in Congress to do anything to stop Trump if he were to win.
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Stop him from making the US analogous to Nazi Germany? Yes we can.

Congress won't let Trump alter the core of America any more than they'd have let Sanders. The realistic worst case scenario is one where we have an ineffective boob in office for four years, embarrassing us abroad and failing to soothe the income gap domestically as extremists on both sides become more emboldened.
 
The race has been tightening for the past 3 weeks. Trump has shaved off over half her lead since the fist round of post-convention polling. RCP has the gap back down 3.3, and its even closer if you include Johnson.

If she has a major coughing fit during the debates, the streams will cross again.
 
clevbrowns94 said:
If you have been paying attention, Hillary has been slipping in the polls in the past weeks, and slipping in the 538 Forecast. She was around a 90 percent chance of winning three weeks ago, and now she is at 68 percent in the polls only Forecast (now cast and polls plus are basically the same as well).

Here's Nate Silver's take on it:



http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-keeps-shrinking/

I know people will say to calm down, that Hillary's post-convention bump just faded away. But still, this is scary to me. If this Forecast is correct, we have a 1/3 chance of electing who is arguably the worst candidate that either party has put up in decades, centuries, or ever. This could be our Nazi Germany moment. And we can't rely on the Republicans in Congress to do anything to stop Trump if he were to win. Anyone else worried?
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They could straight up not give him the electoral votes.
 
I haven't witnessed a more lousy liberal candidate in my entire lifetime.
And people like Nate Silver & Paul Krugman, when they over-defend her, feed the rightful skepticism and paranoia over how much of an insider she is.
 
GONZO said:
Nate Silver is literally the only person I listen to regarding election polls. That dude is on point.
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He used to be for me. This cycle has really solidified his punditification though, from head scratching variances in his model, to outright wrong prognostications.
 
I prefer that this isn't close in these kind of polls. I would prefer if there's barely any independent or Dem who thought "oh I won't vote, Clinton has this in the bag", which would affect Senate races.

Regulus Tera said:
I blame Peña Nieto for this.
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I'm still wondering what was the point of the entire meeting. Or what went through his mind by essentially meddling in another country's elections.
 
High Fry Frow said:
I haven't witnessed a more lousy liberal candidate in my entire lifetime.
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She isn't well liked by both sides. A lot of baggage comes with the name. She needs a strong debate performance to seal the deal IMO. If she lets Trump get to her or if every week there continues to be mentions of scandal or possible scandal, she is in trouble. Trump has dulled everyone to his brand of crazy by now.

Dems acting like this is a slam dunk are the real problem.
 
You should definitely be very worried. Consider donating money or volunteering to prevent white nationalism from taking over America.
 
Popular polls don't mean much at this point. I still don't see much change electorally. Florida and PA will still sink him pretty easily. Don't see any reason to worry.
 
GONZO said:
Nate Silver is literally the only person I listen to regarding election polls. That dude is on point.
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He's become too much of a pundit this cycle. It burned him bad in the primaries, but he's continued to make inane comments like "if the polls tighten, Hillary will lose the advantage" or something like that, that sounds closer to Engrish from an old video game than anything worthwhile.

Sam Wang is better.

- He's not for profit, so he doesn't need click bait articles or dumb trackers that make better stories than they do as models.

- He's more accurate and less pundit-like. He didn't cast aside Trump as a joke candidate like Nate did, and took him seriously and showed he was likely going to win. Nate took a huge loss there, and I really lost a lot of respect for him for his whole Trump saga.

- His model is consistent. Nate's model varies widely over the course of a couple months. There's been like a 50 point swing between June-Now up and down all over the place. Not exactly a model that instills confidence. Wang's stays relatively stable and only goes up and down a few points here and there.
 
The odds, though, are still very much on Clinton's favor here, as you can see to the path to victory model within the same page. I think it was somewhat naive to think that Clinton would stay at 90% the entire time, even if people really wanted that to happen. I think you have to look at the overall recovery Trump has actually had to gauge how good or bad this is. A "convention bump" goes ahead relatively quickly. Take a look at the bump that put Trump head-to-head with Clinton post-RNC, and how quickly it faded and how quickly his numbers dropped. The fact that after nearly a full month, this is all that Trump has managed to recover shows he's still got a long way to go.

Aka, still not really panic time, though I'm getting the feeling more and more around here that people are trying really hard to induce those pre-tanking Trump fears that ran rampant on political threads here. If we're a month away from the election, and we're back to neck-and-neck like post-RNC, that's when I'll start to legitimately worry.

McDougles said:
Like playoff odds in baseball before the last month of the season, it matters relatively little right now. Remember, McCain said "the foundations of the economy are strong" a week before the 2008 market crash, solidifying Obama's win.
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McCain never stood a chance of beating Obama. That had nothing to do with him losing, it was destined, literally, from the beginning.
 
Warning in terms of complacency: At 10:30pm on the night the votes of Brexit came in, bookies were giving 11/1 on event of a Brexit Leave vote winning, the media were implying Remain had done it and even all the key members of Leave campaign were implying they thought theyd lost.

It ain't over till it's over, no matter how barking the Political players may be
 
Ninja Scooter said:
Popular polls don't mean much at this point. I still don't see much change electorally. Florida and PA will still sink him pretty easily. Don't see any reason to worry.
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State results tend to follow the popular vote.

Her lead in Florida has fallen from 7 points to under 2. Her current lead in Ohio is less than one percent. If Trump continues to narrow the gap nationally, both states will easily flip. FL and OH are both lean red states in a tied election. Democratic candidates always underperform there relative to their share of the popular vote.
 
The hope is that the Trump ceiling is real and Trump can't tighten the race any further. Clinton still has a technical lead but there really shouldn't be any complacency here considering the still large amount of undecideds.

On an unrelated note, I love how people here argue that Silver's being too lenient towards Trump while the Trump supporters still hate him for having Hillary up in the first place.
 
accurate or not this is fine. it will hopefully mobilize more people to vote instead of staying home thinking trump has no chance
 
ElectricBlanketFire said:
*cough*
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I know its a joke but it tells you how hidden shes been that a day with a cough is a huge story for her. Whats the main stories about Clinton? All I see are emails, Sanders and a cough.

The health worries thing only works as she did resign from her previous post due to health concerns (she would have liked to come into this off the back of it); a cough itself is no matter for anyone to concern themselves with but shes distrusted and I think worse than that - does not appear that often.

Shes not really treating this like most would any election, shes not getting a campaign or momentum fired up. To the public this will seem odd and the fact when she does appear shes not well, doesn't do much good for her and it doesn't help she got ill whilst saying little of any value so its not like the issue got her message limelight.

Also has anyone talked about how terrible her slogan is?
 
GONZO said:
Nate Silver is literally the only person I listen to regarding election polls. That dude is on point.
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This election cycle, that's a mistake. The economic incentives and a descent into punditry have sadly warped him into what he hates.
 
Team Alucard said:
The race has been tightening for the past 3 weeks. Trump has shaved off over half her lead since the fist round of post-convention polling. RCP has the gap back down 3.3, and its even closer if you include Johnson.

If she has a major coughing fit during the debates, the streams will cross again.
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As always, guess what time it is?

Show me the electoral map that Trump is going to win.
 
Kathian said:
The health worries thing only works as she did resign from her previous post due to health concerns (she would have liked to come into this off the back of it)
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I ignored most of your dumb post but I wanted to note that this is false. Why are you spreading rumors?
 
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