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[speedpop]

Japan:
Sony: 55%
Nintendo:45%
Microsoft: 0.0000001%*


*statistic number may be incorrect

fixed.

Are we all forgetting about the handhelds as well in this battle of supremacy that is next gen? It may not be current within the Western countries, but Japan is lapping up GBA as much as PS2. Personally I think it will be interesting with Sony's PSP coming in now. Cheaper handheld game prices please Nintendo! *cough* SNES ports *cough*

 

[Kobun Heat]

The rolleyes was for thinking the GameCube will miraculously beat Xbox in the US by the end of the generation. Comparing the GameCube to the brilliance that was SNES in its late years is also laughable.

It'll hardly be a miracle. It'll be tortoise-and-the-hare. Long after Sega stopped caring about 16-bit, the SNES chugged along with Nintendo's support. They've stated their intention to move the Gamecube in this way for another few years, and there's no reason to doubt that there will be Gamecubes on the shelves, profitable at $49.99, into the next console gen. Meanwhile, MS can't wait to remove the millstone 'round their necks that is the Xbox.

EDIT: You've also got to look at games like Atsumare! and Kururin Squash. They're making an effort to develop low-budget games that can be sold at cheaper prices. And if the Revolution is backwards compatible, that's another reason why we might continue to see GC development for another few years after the Revolution's launch.

 

[Doom_Bringer]

The biggest problem with PS2 is not enough games. So far XBOX has had Ninja Gaiden, Chronicles of Riddick, and soon Fable. And PS2 has seen one great release yet! The system has been dry so far this year. It needs more killer apps.

 

[cvxfreak]

Yes, I see the gap of GameCube and Xbox in the U.S., when it's all said and done, to be somewhere in the neighborhood of a million and a half units, which won't be enough to offset the GameCube's impending 4.5 Million system lead in Japan. A $49.99 GameCube might just be about a year and a quarter away.

 

[SolidSnakex]

It'll hardly be a miracle. It'll be tortoise-and-the-hare. Long after Sega stopped caring about 16-bit, the SNES chugged along with Nintendo's support. They've stated their intention to move the Gamecube in this way for another few years, and there's no reason to doubt that there will be Gamecubes on the shelves, profitable at $49.99, into the next console gen. Meanwhile, MS can't wait to remove the millstone 'round their necks that is the Xbox.

I don't think that's a very good comparison. The SNES was selling well all through it's generation, the Genesis just managed to sell better at a certain point. It wasn't like it just suddenly stopped and then came back. The GC though just isn't selling at all right now. It did under 100k last month, which is pretty amazing for a system that's only been out for a few years. They'd have to make serious turn arounds to boost the GC sales once the next Nintendo system is out.

"The biggest problem with PS2 is not enough games. So far XBOX has had Ninja Gaiden, Chronicles of Riddick, and soon Fable. And PS2 has seen one great release yet! The system has been dry so far this year. It needs more killer apps."

That's one way of looking at it. Ofcourse the other way of looking at it is despite the PS2 not having any real big games so far this year, the Xbox has only managed to outsell it 1 month total. And now it looks like that 1 month might just be all the Xbox gets giving how huge the PS2's releases are for the rest of the year.

 

[Kobun Heat]

And I seriously don't see why the lead of a million and a half units that the Xbox has in the US is considered to be such a huge deal. Nintendo could overtake the Xbox in the US by this time next week if they wanted to. All they'd have to do is give away a million and a half GameCubes, which at retail would cost them a 150 million dollars, which coincidentally is the money MS paid them for Rare.

The fact that they don't do this is prima facie evidence that it's just not that important.

 

[cvxfreak]

And I seriously don't see why the lead of a million and a half units that the Xbox has in the US is considered to be such a huge deal. Nintendo could overtake the Xbox in the US by this time next week if they wanted to. All they'd have to do is give away a million and a half GameCubes, which at retail would cost them one million, five hundred thousand dollars, which coincidentally is the money MS paid them for Rare.

The fact that they don't do this is prima facie evidence that it's just not that important.

Oh jeez, I hope one day Yamauchi starts feeling a bit generous. That would be HILARIOUS though. (Although it would be $150 Million)

 

[JJConrad]

I don't think that's a very good comparison. The SNES was selling well all through it's generation, the Genesis just managed to sell better at a certain point. It wasn't like it just suddenly stopped and then came back. The GC though just isn't selling at all right now. It did under 100k last month, which is pretty amazing for a system that's only been out for a few years. They'd have to make serious turn arounds to boost the GC sales once the next Nintendo system is out..

For a comparison between the GCN and Xbox, it's very good. Both systems have sold very close to each other throughout this generation. The GCN outsold the Xbox last year. The difference between the systems was usually less then 10% each month. It wasn't until the latest price drop the the Xbox has put any significant distance between the two console.... and that has been slipping.

Using the SNES/Genisis for a comparison of the GCN/Xbox makes a hell of a lot more sense than using it for a Xbox/PS2 comparison.

 

[snapty00]

And I seriously don't see why the lead of a million and a half units that the Xbox has in the US is considered to be such a huge deal. Nintendo could overtake the Xbox in the US by this time next week if they wanted to. All they'd have to do is give away a million and a half GameCubes, which at retail would cost them a 150 million dollars, which coincidentally is the money MS paid them for Rare.

That suggests that the problem with the GameCube is the price, though, and it's not. There's no way to tell for sure, but I think if Nintendo gave away 1.5 million GameCube systems in the U.S., it'd mainly be Nintendo fans (maybe 40% of all 1.5 million sold) picking up backup systems, not primarily new users. Sure, GameCube would be caught up with Xbox in the U.S. then, but I'm not convinced that software sales would be much better. I mean, you'd probably see Nintendo fans with 10 or 15 systems since they eat up all Nintendo stuff, anyway.

I don't think Nintendo would have a problem selling the GameCube at $149 if the system had the games most people want.

 

[Che]

For a comparison between the GCN and Xbox, it's very good. Both systems have sold very close to each other throughout this generation. The GCN outsold the Xbox last year. The difference between the systems was usually less then 10% each month. It wasn't until the latest price drop the the Xbox has put any significant distance between the two console.... and that has been slipping.

Using the SNES/Genisis for a comparison of the GCN/Xbox makes a hell of a lot more sense than using it for a Xbox/PS2 comparison.

IAWTP. PS2/Xbox is way different PS2 is clearly the winner. On the other hand the Xbox/GC is a harder battle and has more similarities. Although I have to repeat that it's a shame comparing the SNES/Genesis battle with any other battle (and especially this generation's which I think is the worst).

 

[Flatbread]

Huh? Hasn't the monthly sales gap between the PS2 and Xbox been rising every month since the PS2 price drop? They're back to a 100k seperation again. It's like the GCN sales boost last year.... don't be stupid and think it'll last.


The Xbox2 will own 100% of the next-gen market*. The problem is, with all the recent talk about cost doubling next-gen, why would any company want to make that jump prematurely? I'm starting to doubt a 2005 XBox2 launch.


*Until the PS3 and Revolution are released.

the ratio of xbox/ps2 consoles sold has been steadily been increasing in xbox's favor for the past 2 years. It was around 30 percent in early 2003, last month was 67 percent, the third best month ever, behind the price cut when xbox outsold ps2 this year, and the month before when the xbox just started the price cut and the ratio was 80%.

I dont know if i have all the months anymore, but the xbox is selling much better, even with the ps2 price cut the xbox/ps2 ratio was still 60%, one of the top 5 months in the consoles history since 2002.

 

[vesuvious]

This is getting a little off topic from the original post, but a comparison between the Xbox/PS2 in relation to the SNES/Genesis days is not a very good comparison at all. The better comparison would be Xbox/GCN. In the SNES days the game that allowed Nintendo to over take Genesis was Donkey Kong Country. The year that game was released was the turning point of Nintendo over taking the Sega Genesis. Was Saturn released soon after this or during the same time period? My opinion is that the GCN will overtake Microsoft in the same way with the upcoming Zelda title. I believe Nintendo will not only release this at a strategic time here in the U.S. and worldwide, but it will compete against Microsoft on all fronts...including Xbox support and the supposed 2005 year end release of Xenon. Can Microsoft really compete with a mature themed Zelda? Will Zelda be the DKC of this generations Nintendo console? I tend to think so and I hope this is what happens! It will be an interesting thing to watch though, that's for sure!

 

[Baron Aloha]

The GC/Xbox war definitely parallels the Snes/Genesis war in a number of ways. If the Xbox 2 does in fact launch next fall I can easily see the Gamecube closing the gap and finishing in 2nd place by the 3rd quarter of 2006. It also seems as though Nintendo is trying to have a strong finish for the Gamecube just like they had with the SNES. The Gamecube lineup for next year will be bolstered by what are arguably 2 of the biggest games this generation (Resident Evil 4 and Zelda). There are also several other solid titles coming such as StarFox and rumored games like FF:CC2, and another Tales game.

One of the reasons I think the Gamecube has underperformed is that people have this perception that what happened to Sega will happen to Nintendo. You'd be surprised how many people have told me that they thought that Nintendo was in financial trouble... and then when I tell them that they are doing well they act like I am a liar. I think that after Nintendo makes it through this generation some of these negative expectations will be erased. They have 2 years to change people's perception of them, which is plenty of time. Producing 2-3 more mature/semi-mature franchises along the lines of Metroid Prime, Geist, and RE4 will go along way towards convincing people that Nintendo really does make games that everyone can enjoy and it will put them in a good position for the next generation. They should also push to retain the exclusive rights to the RE series and have Capcom prepare RE5 for the Revolution.

 

[GDGF]

SNES/Genny days...

Genny leading in US and Europe

Snes leading in Japan (by far)

GCN/XboX

XboX leading in US and Europe

GCN leading in Japan (by far)


(this is not counting the fact that the PS2 is the one true champ in home console sales, of course)

 

[NWO]

Well yeah, thats why i buffered the statement with "but lets say both of them have very solid next gen systems."

True. But neither of them are even close to what the Genesis and SNES did.

Oooh ooh because Sega dropped all support for the one console while dumping out a new one that lacked backwards compatibility!!
Whoa....

Checkmate!

As far as the next generation is concerned, here's approximately what I think:

U.S.:
Sony: 45%
Microsoft: 40%
Nintendo: 15%

Europe:
Sony: 50%
Microsoft: 35%
Nintendo: 15%

Japan:
Sony: 70%
Nintendo: 20%
Microsoft: 10%

LMAO

I don't think much thinking actually went into that post.

 

[Renegade]

NES:Master System:S2:Xbox

There would have to be a hell lotta effort on Microsoft's part to get the Xbox to sell a lot more and gain a lot of momentum. It would take a price undercut and a good game month. The Xbox has good game months ahead of it but I doubt Microsoft is going to be lowering price of the Xbox a lot in the coming months, although I think September would be a good month for them to go ahead with the 129 dollar price point in the US (If they cannot achieve a major bundle deal). It would also take better advertisement of the system. Music Videos have helped the Ipod become the defacto electronic fashion accessory. Perhaps something similar could help the Xbox become 'cooler' and trendier. However, the Xbox has no exclusive trendy games to match (Like Def Jam Vendetta or Grand Theft Auto) but they do have Halo 2 and Mortal Kombat is highly anticipated on the Xbox.

 

[yodathesoda]

I have a feeling XBOX sales will dominate Christmas sales this year and it all depends if they can keep that momentum going.

 

[GDGF]

It seems like some idots are really bad at basic math

 

[Prine]

After this Xmas, the gap between Xbox and GC will be well over 2 million in US. And i suspect the same for Europe (well over a million gap)

Xbox, after 3 years at #3 manage to turn it around and move up to #2. Barely. From here i expect it to grow further apart from GC on a WW basis.

MS have been very succesful in releasing top quality games for 2004, so far 3 AAA games, possibly 4 with Fable. Kudos to MS, glad to see Xbox winning over the masses

 

[snapty00]

LMAO

I don't think much thinking actually went into that post.

You're right. I may have been a little optimistic with Nintendo.

 

[cvxfreak]

You're right. I may have been a little optimistic with Nintendo.

...*throws up*

 

[GDGF]

I smell TeamXboX...

 

[Senretsu]

Not until the negative ads start coming out (and someone's gonna do it eventually when things start getting into crunch time, one of the big 3), then you know we're back in 1995. Blast processing all the way baby!

 

[GSG Flash]

U.S.:
Sony: %60
Microsoft: 25%
Nintendo: 15%

Europe:
Sony: 50%
Microsoft: 35%
Nintendo: 15%

Japan:
Sony: 60%
Nintendo: 30%
Microsoft: 10%

FIXED

and this is consoles of course, handhelds included would result in a much higher marketshare than MS.

 

[Che]

I smell TeamXboX...

Yay! I smelt it way before you! I win I win!

 

[DarienA]

I feel like this was a joke thread gone HORRIBLY wrong.

 

[Che]

I feel like this was a joke thread gone HORRIBLY wrong.

No no no.... can't be. If it was, I'd feel HORRIBLY owned.

 

[CrimsonSkies]

Eh it depends. Microsoft needs about 3 more franchises that gamers really clamor for. Not really Halo 2 level as they have their elite 1st party series. Just games that can sell a million copies with ease. The sequels to a lot of their 1st party games have had poor sales.

Jade Empire, Fable, and Conker all look like great games they are publishing in the near / long term. MechAssault 2 looks much improved over the original, and I can't wait to see the Crimson Skies sequel on Xbox 2. Plus we will finally see Perfect Dark Zero on Xbox 2. So they have a shot, but they still need to get over that hump.

What might tip the scale in their favor is if they could sign a multiyear deal with BioWare for exclusive games, get another AAA developer under their belt like Blizzard, and develop a racing franchise that has broad appeal.

I'm only talking about North America / Europe above. In Japan Microsoft is just going to have to buy up some talent. Nobody wants to touch their system there except for Team Ninja.

 

[Kiriku]

Call me crazy, but seeing a "serious" thread posted by Sp0rsk just doesn't seem right to me. I think it's "serious" in disguise!

 

[SantaC]

I smell TeamXboX...

IAWTP

and the topic starter works for a gamestore.?! No wonder they dont sell any GC games there

 

[ironichaos]

Wow, this thread has really degraded.

Wishing the doom of console makers (whether it be Microsoft or Nintendo) and developers (whether it be Acclaim or Midway)...

You guys are all supposed to be video game "fans." I mean, this is an industry you should be cheering for, not secretly wishing for the downfall. But instead, many of you have these spoiled, ignorant ideas that you hope to come true...but that will ultimately accomplish what?

You clearly are not understanding the repercussions of these attitudes being displayed here. It's becoming clear to me that this MTV generation is truly a pathetic one.

 

[JJConrad]

Wow, this thread has really degraded.

Wishing the doom of console makers (whether it be Microsoft or Nintendo) and developers (whether it be Acclaim or Midway)...

You guys are all supposed to be video game "fans." I mean, this is an industry you should be cheering for, not secretly wishing for the downfall. But instead, many of you have these spoiled, ignorant ideas that you hope to come true...but that will ultimately accomplish what?

You clearly are not understanding the repercussions of these attitudes being displayed here. It's becoming clear to me that this MTV generation is truly a pathetic one.

How can this thread have degraded? It started out as crap and had no room to get worse.

We are all fans. Just like fans of baseball, football, or basketball all cheer/root/defend "their team," we do the same for consoles. It's not uncommon; car fans do it, computer geeks do it, skaterboarders, sci-fi nerds... we're all losers, just like them.

I would rather read 100 sales-age threads, than hear that damned "Beat L.A." chant I hear at every away game.

 

[Spike]

Haven't read all the posts yet, so I apologize if it has been said before:

Unless Xbox gets Final Fantasy or Dragon Quest, they'll never overtake Sony.

 

[ironichaos]

Sure, I'll admit it, I root for Nintendo...but I'm not so pathetically blind to not see the contributions that others have made to this industry, and the value in them. (of course, it's a general statement and not directed at you specifically)

This is probalby just a jaded gamer talking...especially after seeing the gem that was Dreamcast fall to the overhyped DVD player and its initial software lineup...it's becoming difficult for me to see Atari's Matrix, the wealth of licensed blah games, rehashed first-person shooters and other uninspired shite squeezing the magic out of the industry. This forum is great in that it can and does see games such as Katamari Damashi or Rez...but then there's the other side who only wants to see Nintendo, Sega, and others lying in a grave. I guess there always needs to be balance to things...but then I guess these threads also just remind me that perhaps the balance has been tipping the wrong way for too long.

 

[Teddman]

Haven't read all the posts yet, so I apologize if it has been said before:

Unless Xbox gets Final Fantasy or Dragon Quest, they'll never overtake Sony.

In Asia.

That's kind of a pat answer that's not as close to the mark as it used to be. Those franchises aren't really the be all, end all worldwide. Japanese software's global appeal has been on the decline this generation.

 

[Vieo]

The only reason Xbox is getting closer to PS2 sales is because theres a PS2 shortage. I mean, someone needs to tell Sony to stop with this utter bs.

 

[radioheadrule83]

Sure, I'll admit it, I root for Nintendo...but I'm not so pathetically blind to not see the contributions that others have made to this industry, and the value in them. (of course, it's a general statement and not directed at you specifically)

This is probalby just a jaded gamer talking...especially after seeing the gem that was Dreamcast fall to the overhyped DVD player and its initial software lineup...it's becoming difficult for me to see Atari's Matrix, the wealth of licensed blah games, rehashed first-person shooters and other uninspired shite squeezing the magic out of the industry. This forum is great in that it can and does see games such as Katamari Damashi or Rez...but then there's the other side who only wants to see Nintendo, Sega, and others lying in a grave. I guess there always needs to be balance to things...but then I guess these threads also just remind me that perhaps the balance has been tipping the wrong way for too long.

A sentiment I agree with.

I also think Nintendo will have a strong finish this gen, but MS will have still stormed them in the US thanks to great western support / home advantage. Europe, aside from the UK, is pretty up in the air from what I gather... and we all know how stupid comparing MS and Nintendo in Japan is. Nintendo typically finish their consoles strong -- if you check out their annual reports and news stories from the end of the SNES/N64 cycles, you'll find they had definative strategies that saw them carry on pushing consoles at a consistent rate (albeit with N64 still moving less than PlayStation)...

with SNES they had pre-rendered sprite games and Super FX, on N64 they had Perfect Dark, Majora's Mask, the Expansion Pack, coloured consoles and other gimmickry.. and with Gamecube it appears we're going to end up getting not only konga drums, but:
a camera, microphone and (if "Git on the Floor" has an apt title) we might get a dance mat too. What Nintendo spin or innovation they can wean from these surprisingly Sony-esque things remains to be seen, but maybe it could do them good. We also have Zelda and RE4 coming, and the Xbox and PS2 will always sell at a premium - meaning this thing will be VERY VERY cheap soon. If DS can make significant inroads in the 6 months before PSP releases, maybe that could have an impact too...... then next may - Revolution. Maybe GBA2 too.

I don't think the fat lady has sung for anyone just yet. Except when she's been doing ode to joy's for PS2 and GBA, that is.

Thom

 

[sprsk]

This is getting a little off topic from the original post, but a comparison between the Xbox/PS2 in relation to the SNES/Genesis days is not a very good comparison at all. The better comparison would be Xbox/GCN. In the SNES days the game that allowed Nintendo to over take Genesis was Donkey Kong Country. The year that game was released was the turning point of Nintendo over taking the Sega Genesis. Was Saturn released soon after this or during the same time period? My opinion is that the GCN will overtake Microsoft in the same way with the upcoming Zelda title. I believe Nintendo will not only release this at a strategic time here in the U.S. and worldwide, but it will compete against Microsoft on all fronts...including Xbox support and the supposed 2005 year end release of Xenon. Can Microsoft really compete with a mature themed Zelda? Will Zelda be the DKC of this generations Nintendo console? I tend to think so and I hope this is what happens! It will be an interesting thing to watch though, that's for sure!

Vagabond has the right idea, im not talking about a comeback this gen, i mean next gen.

 

[disabledHeliocentric]

I doubt the xbox will match the sales PS2 has had the last few years. It might get closer month to month as this generation trails off into the sunset. But the ps2 has such a huge lead xbox is destined to trail it. The thing is though if the xbox does a lot better going into next gen that momentum might carry over.

 

[jarrod]

As far as the next generation is concerned, here's approximately what I think:

U.S.:
Sony: 45%
Microsoft: 40%
Nintendo: 15%

Europe:
Sony: 50%
Microsoft: 35%
Nintendo: 15%

Japan:
Sony: 70%
Nintendo: 20%
Microsoft: 10%

These figures are interesting considering the current generation...

U.S.:
Sony: 60%
Microsoft: 21%
Nintendo: 19%

Europe:
Sony: 83%
Microsoft: 9%
Nintendo: 8%

Japan:
Sony: 80%
Nintendo: 18%
Microsoft: 2%


...Xenon might be able to handle a Genesis style upset but definitely not XBox. XBox can't even muster N64 level success to be honest, it's the worst performing 2nd place system since the NES days. Even comparing it to PS2 is laughable.

After this Xmas, the gap between Xbox and GC will be well over 2 million in US. And i suspect the same for Europe (well over a million gap)

And GC's JP lead over XBox should expand to over 3.5 million by year's end... what's your point? Also, I wouldn't be so sure about Europe, especially with GameCube having recently retaken Germany. If not for the UK, XBox would be in deep shit over the region.

In Asia.

That's kind of a pat answer that's not as close to the mark as it used to be. Those franchises aren't really the be all, end all worldwide. Japanese software's global appeal has been on the decline this generation.

It's cyclical. I remember when Mortal Kombat and Donkey Kong Country outsold the competition also.... bottom line is without a significant presence in Japan, Microsoft will never be able to take the lead overall. They'll always be at best 20-30 million behind Sony.

 

[Spike]

In Asia.

That's kind of a pat answer that's not as close to the mark as it used to be. Those franchises aren't really the be all, end all worldwide. Japanese software's global appeal has been on the decline this generation.

Yes, but, the system that gains these titles in its portfolio, gains the full support of the Japanese industry. If MS or Nintendo can't get one of these titles into its offerings next gen, then we'll see the exact same outcome as this gen.

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

To be honest I don't know if it's as simple as a case of momentum swinging it easy for Xenon. It seems to me that a large part of the Xbox appeal is the best version of third party games, judging by how a lot of Xbox exclusives, and Xbox first party stuff, seems to be falling by the wayside.

If the Xenon truly doesn't have BC, if it doesn't have a HDD, if it doesn't stand out as the technically superior choice, if it is cut back to stem MS' money bleed then I don't think it's going to be that easy to just change tact.

That and could an early launch cut short momentum? The Xbox's whole upswing has only really been quite recent, I don't know how much the people buying it now are going to represent a strong presence anywhere in the Xenon's first few years of life. If anything the Xenon showing up so soon could serve to quash that momentum.

 

[Sysgen]

1st to market with the best games wins.

End of conversation.

 

[Rhindle]

1st to market with the best games wins.

End of conversation.

We have a winnar.

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

We have a winnar.

Yes, Dreamcast you are the no.1 console.

 

[JJConrad]

Except that history says:

"2nd to market with the best games wins."

OR

"1st to market with the best games and isn't Sega wins.

 

[Che]

These figures are interesting considering the current generation...

U.S.:
Sony: 60%
Microsoft: 21%
Nintendo: 19%

Europe:
Sony: 83%
Microsoft: 9%
Nintendo: 8%

Japan:
Sony: 80%
Nintendo: 18%
Microsoft: 2%


...Xenon might be able to handle a Genesis style upset but definitely not XBox. XBox can't even muster N64 level success to be honest, it's the worst performing 2nd place system since the NES days. Even comparing it to PS2 is laughable.



And GC's JP lead over XBox should expand to over 3.5 million by year's end... what's your point? Also, I wouldn't be so sure about Europe, especially with GameCube having recently retaken Germany. If not for the UK, XBox would be in deep shit over the region.



It's cyclical. I remember when Mortal Kombat and Donkey Kong Country outsold the competition also.... bottom line is without a significant presence in Japan, Microsoft will never be able to take the lead overall. They'll always be at best 20-30 million behind Sony.

You're putting way too much thought into it. This means that you obviously don't understand the TeamXbox logic. You don't have to comprehent it - you never will, you have to embrace it.

 

[Teddman]

Yes, but, the system that gains these titles in its portfolio, gains the full support of the Japanese industry. If MS or Nintendo can't get one of these titles into its offerings next gen, then we'll see the exact same outcome as this gen.

You might see Sony ahead again, but it will most certainly not be the exact same outcome as this generation.

You're oversimplifying, that's all I'm saying. FF + DQ doesn't = worldwide dominance. There's a lot more to it.

 

[jarrod]

You might see Sony ahead again, but it will most certainly not be the exact same outcome as this generation.

You're oversimplifying, that's all I'm saying. FF + DQ doesn't = worldwide dominance. There's a lot more to it.

Oversimplifying? What, like exaggerating Japan's decline (both internally and influentially) to the point of making it irrelevant to the world market?

As much as people would like to believe otherwise, a weakened Japan is still the 2nd largest region for both sales and development in this industry. If Microsoft can't even make a dent in the market and attract notable support to their platforms, they have almost no hope of becoming top dog in this industry overall. No way around that. They don't need to be number one, but 2% market share won't get them anywhere either...

 

[GDJustin]

You might see Sony ahead again, but it will most certainly not be the exact same outcome as this generation.

You're oversimplifying, that's all I'm saying. FF + DQ doesn't = worldwide dominance. There's a lot more to it.

FF + GTA, on the other hand...