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[James Sawyer Ford]

Phantom

someone said ps is japanese and they only have an office in america. their hq is in america, their western studios now report to commifornia. ps is as japanese as a big mac. sorry if that’s irrelevant to the convo, although i’m not sure you get to dictate the terms of what’s discussed.

will be one of the worst things that’s ever happened to the industry if this goes through and to be blunt you’ve got bum lickers on here, many of whom pretended to have a moral issue with the ABK deal, saying it’ll be great because sony can implement cinematic help and polish amongst other deluded and demented takes. if you want to play a ‘polished cinematic’ game with sony’s influence just go and enjoy one of the many many many games they release which follow the same template.

The only thing deluded and demented is thinking just because Sony acquires FromSoft that they're going to suddenly turn into Concord, despite the fact that Sony is a big reason the entire genre of Souls even exists given their push for many early titles.

I want a more polished FromSoft experience. Sony acquiring them will likely make that happen. I am not worried about them mandating anything from California where zero control is exerted on Japanese studios.

 

[TheGodfather07]

Who else have sony made exclusives with in the past? Sony are acquiring anybody they've had close partnerships with. Konami maybe? Many of their ip are associated with PlayStation. I honestly think sony would try for take two if they had the money. They've had a strong partnership since the original PS. They made GTA big together with the GTA3/PS2 combo and sony seems to always get the marketing for rockstar games. GTA4 was the only exception. Take two is out of reach for sony though.

I didn't want any big publishers or studios to get acquired but Microsoft opened the floodgates with Activision and it is what it is. It would be naive to think sony wouldn't bag a huge acquisition themselves and kadokawa just fits. What sony do with fromsoftware is another discussion but im pretty sure they will just carry on as usual apart from maybe no more xbox releases?

 

[Varteras]

Thanks for the flowers bruv.

I try really hard to give solid analysis, so always appreciate when someone recognizes that.



A lot of people said they sony should buy them, not that they would, nor did they put in a time frame.

How did I get this right? It wasn't luck or random. Sony announced their mid term strategy and how much they planned to spend on M&A. They said they weren't going to favor one segment over another. When you look at how much they had to spend and roughly divided into 3rds, you realize what was on the table and what wasn't. You look at what would give them the best bang for their buck and the answer was obviously Kadokawa/FromSoftware and that it would likely be easier and even less risky just to buy the entire parent company rather than just try and pay a premium for the studio. They also said this mid range plan covered the next 3 fiscal years.

Sony's vision seems pretty clear to me. They want to be a market leader in gaming across platforms, they want to grow their subscription base, and they want to build a IP juggernaut like Disney/Marvel.

In order to do that they need to be able to create their own PC Storefront. How do you do that? You need exclusives that perform well on console and PC. Who is a company they've worked with in the past, have a good relationship with, that sells well on console and PC? Who again is in the ballpark of their budget?

Acquire was a lucky accident.

But when I was younger, I thought they would have blossomed under Sony. I thought Tenchu and Way of the Samurai were great games that just didn't have the budget they needed in order to be major AAA games. I'd love to see them either work with Sucker Punch on expanding the ghost games or use the engine to make a Tenchu game.

Always enjoy reading your analysis on things. So I'd like to ask your view on the landscape in a post-Kadokawa acquisition. What would you foresee as future moves after this? Kadokawa is a pretty big deal for anyone to be buying and would be another significant contraction in the pool of large third-party gaming companies. Capcom, Sega, and CDPR have already been quoted as not wanting to sell, so I just write them off until further notice. Other Japanese companies largely run by families like SE and Konami I don't think have a desire to be bought, either. If Sony is dedicated to establishing an unmatched developer roster and IP catalogue, who could they be targeting next? What are some realistic outcomes? What do you think Microsoft's reaction will be? They've largely conceded the console space but they're still very much trying to establish an unassailable position in the market. They've stated they're still looking into buying other companies.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

This acquisition makes sense for all parties involved out interest how much would from software be worth on its own?

The answer to this is complicated.

• They're worth more to Sony than they are to most other companies because Sony owns Demon's Souls and Bloodborne
• If you compare them to CDPR who are currently worth 3.86 billion dollars, it's probably easiest to compare these two companies
  • CDPR has two massive IP in The Witcher and Cyberpunk, but they don't own either IP, each of these games has the ability to sell 30 million units though
  • Elden Ring sold 25 million copies on PC (and is still selling) and From owns the IP
  • Bloodborne sold 8 million copies on PS4 alone, you could assume it would do at least 8 million on PC. That's 16 million copies. maybe even closer to 20 million
  • While FromSoftware doesn't own Dark Souls, SIE does own Demon's Souls. Dark Souls 3 sold 10 million copies, but From's games are selling better than that now
• The Witcher 3 came out in 2015 and Cyberpunk in 2020. CDPR takes about 5 years to release new games
• Since 2015, FromSoftware has released: Bloodborne, Dark Souls 3, Sekiro, Elden Ring, and Armored Core 6, among other titles like Deracine.

I think you could conclude that FromSoftware is worth maybe 2-3 billion dollars on its own, but for Sony, they're probably worth 4-5 billion. That you could get Kadokawa for 4 billion dollars is a massive steal. So Sony has a ton of incentive to get this deal done. I think they're even more valuable to Sony if they can help Sony launch a successful PC launcher.

 

[Clear]

The only thing deluded and demented is thinking just because Sony acquires FromSoft that they're going to suddenly turn into Concord, despite the fact that Sony is a big reason the entire genre of Souls even exists given their push for many early titles.

Yeah, gotta say that so much of the hand-wringing over this seems forced and illogical, especially in a year where Sony have published stuff like Rise Of The Ronin and Stellar Blade and Astrobot from with their Asian teams and partners.

Surely that's way more relevant to discussion of acquisition of a Japanese conglomerate than bloody Concord!

 

[Badlucktroll]

If this happens i bet From will make a badass new soulslike or bloodborne 2 on decima. But i think and have always thought that sony should own the metal gear ip. if they bought konami they could also put from to work on castlevania

 

[Varteras]

Yeah, gotta say that so much of the hand-wringing over this seems forced and illogical, especially in a year where Sony have published stuff like Rise Of The Ronin and Stellar Blade and Astrobot from with their Asian teams and partners.

Surely that's way more relevant to discussion of acquisition of a Japanese conglomerate than bloody Concord!

Hell, both Stellar Blade and Helldivers are the antithesis of the ultraprogressive social politics prevalent in the US West Coast and parts of Europe. They clearly didn't have a problem funding them.

 

[rofif]

Why is everyone acting like BB emualtion on pc is now in a better state than original version?
The only thing it got is higher fps.
but got more graphical errors, stuttering, lacking effects, problems with audio and tons of other issues the deeper you get into the game.
it is not up to the point of replacing the ps4 version of the game yet.
Anyone who would take all these REAL problems as opposed to playing the better ps4 version.. just because ps4 version is 30fps, is full of shit.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Always enjoy reading your analysis on things. So I'd like to ask your view on the landscape in a post-Kadokawa acquisition. What would you foresee as future moves after this? Kadokawa is a pretty big deal for anyone to be buying and would be another significant contraction in the pool of large third-party gaming companies. Capcom, Sega, and CDPR have already been quoted as not wanting to sell, so I just write them off until further notice. Other Japanese companies largely run by families like SE and Konami I don't think have a desire to be bought, either. If Sony is dedicated to establishing an unmatched developer roster and IP catalogue, who could they be targeting next? What are some realistic outcomes? What do you think Microsoft's reaction will be? They've largely conceded the console space but they're still very much trying to establish an unassailable position in the market. They've stated they're still looking into buying other companies.

I think this will re-spark consolidation and M&A in Japan and Asia writ large. Things had started to slow down a bit. That said, a third of FromSoftare's major titles were already Sony exclusive to begin with. I don't see this as a major shrinking of the 3rd party market among Japanese developers.

We've been on a bit of a 20 year consolidation trend in Japan.

Square Enix - 2003 (4.77B market cap)
Sega Sammy - 2004 (4.24B market cap)
Bandai Namco - 2005 (13.3B market cap)
KOEI Tecmo - 2009 (3.56 B market cap)

The biggest companies that haven't merged are Konami (13.28B), Capcom (11.7B), and Cyber Agent (3.3B). These Japanese companies have still largely been falling behind companies in the West, which had been largely consolidated already around Activision, EA, T2, Ubisoft.

It's really difficult to guess what happens next because there are A LOT of players involved. Chinese firms, Big Tech...

Right now we've seen largely an unwillingness of large Japanese companies to sell to foreign companies. That's probably something that Microsoft has struggled with in their M&A attempts. They've spent 80 billion dollars and largely none of it in Japan (excluding Zenimax that including Tango, which they promptly tried to close).

These larger Japanese companies will prove very difficult to purchase for most companies, especially Western/Chinese companies. So I'm not sure what kind of response Microsoft can try to have without being escorted to the door, but you never know.

This gives Sony a lot of advantage. If I were Sony after Kadokawa, I would be setting my sights on CDPR, if CDPR continues to rebuff those efforts, there are generally two avenues to go from there. You could buy Ubisoft, since they're especially cheap at the moment and try to reform them, but they have more debt than their total market cap... So I don't see that happening.

So what other major targets are out there? The answer really depends on individual companies and their situations.

Of the remaining Japanese companies only two make any sense. Let me start off by saying KOEI Tecmo while the most affordable and have worked extensively with Sony doesn't have any strong IP. It would be a baffling buy. Sony got Destiny out of the Bungie buy and get Elden Ring out of the Kadokawa buy. Sony wants IP and strong IP.

Square Enix and Sega Sammy are the two that make the most sense and given a) their history and b) the strength of IP, the obvious choice (today) is Square Enix, though I'd personally find Sega Sammy to be the better buy, they're cheaper, but Sega has to do a lot to regain their footing in the industry outside of Persona. Both companies have lost a lot of talent, so you have to fix that problem first.

Square Enix immediately gives Sony Dragon Quest, which might even be strategically more important than Final Fantasy, in terms of what it could do to grow back Sony's Japanese market share. There's obviously no contending with that, short of say Pokemon or Monster Hunter and I don't think Nintendo or Capcom are realistically on the market.

The issue I think is that buying Square Enix drastically changes you as a platform holder and game publisher, but if you were able to reform Square Enix, they could be potentially quite valuable. You already know that the Dragon Quest remakes are going to sell extremely well, so there is always a fountain of revenue to strike from. They would also help with a PC launcher with FF Online and DQ Online.

I think what is more likely is that Sony would focus on picking up some smaller buys in the next few years, but could revisit things with Square Enix later.

 

[Varteras]

I think this will re-spark consolidation and M&A in Japan and Asia writ large. Things had started to slow down a bit. That said, a third of FromSoftare's major titles were already Sony exclusive to begin with. I don't see this as a major shrinking of the 3rd party market among Japanese developers.

We've been on a bit of a 20 year consolidation trend in Japan.

Square Enix - 2003 (4.77B market cap)
Sega Sammy - 2004 (4.24B market cap)
Bandai Namco - 2005 (13.3B market cap)
KOEI Tecmo - 2009 (3.56 B market cap)

The biggest companies that haven't merged are Konami (13.28B), Capcom (11.7B), and Cyber Agent (3.3B). These Japanese companies have still largely been falling behind companies in the West, which had been largely consolidated already around Activision, EA, T2, Ubisoft.

It's really difficult to guess what happens next because there are A LOT of players involved. Chinese firms, Big Tech...

Right now we've seen largely an unwillingness of large Japanese companies to sell to foreign companies. That's probably something that Microsoft has struggled with in their M&A attempts. They've spent 80 billion dollars and largely none of it in Japan (excluding Zenimax that including Tango, which they promptly tried to close).

These larger Japanese companies will prove very difficult to purchase for most companies, especially Western/Chinese companies. So I'm not sure what kind of response Microsoft can try to have without being escorted to the door, but you never know.

This gives Sony a lot of advantage. If I were Sony after Kadokawa, I would be setting my sights on CDPR, if CDPR continues to rebuff those efforts, there are generally two avenues to go from there. You could buy Ubisoft, since they're especially cheap at the moment and try to reform them, but they have more debt than their total market cap... So I don't see that happening.

So what other major targets are out there? The answer really depends on individual companies and their situations.

Of the remaining Japanese companies only two make any sense. Let me start off by saying KOEI Tecmo while the most affordable and have worked extensively with Sony doesn't have any strong IP. It would be a baffling buy. Sony got Destiny out of the Bungie buy and get Elden Ring out of the Kadokawa buy. Sony wants IP and strong IP.

Square Enix and Sega Sammy are the two that make the most sense and given a) their history and b) the strength of IP, the obvious choice (today) is Square Enix, though I'd personally find Sega Sammy to be the better buy, they're cheaper, but Sega has to do a lot to regain their footing in the industry outside of Persona. Both companies have lost a lot of talent, so you have to fix that problem first.

Square Enix immediately gives Sony Dragon Quest, which might even be strategically more important than Final Fantasy, in terms of what it could do to grow back Sony's Japanese market share. There's obviously no contending with that, short of say Pokemon or Monster Hunter and I don't think Nintendo or Capcom are realistically on the market.

The issue I think is that buying Square Enix drastically changes you as a platform holder and game publisher, but if you were able to reform Square Enix, they could be potentially quite valuable. You already know that the Dragon Quest remakes are going to sell extremely well, so there is always a fountain of revenue to strike from. They would also help with a PC launcher with FF Online and DQ Online.

I think what is more likely is that Sony would focus on picking up some smaller buys in the next few years, but could revisit things with Square Enix later.

Colin Moriarty has at least a few times now floated the idea of Sony buying Bandai Namco. Arguments I've heard for it are that they have some solid IP, they're not a family operated company so buying them might be a smoother ride, and they would contribute a lot to various areas that Sony lacks in. Though counters I've heard to that are that they may be too expensive for what they bring, there would likely be a lot of redundancies, and that they're also a huge toy company which Sony may not want or could cause them trouble.

On the Western side of things, are you of the opinion that the bigger companies are off the table for Sony? Like EA and T2. I know in the past you felt that T2 would be a move Sony might make but I can't help but feel like even if Sony came up with the money, they might not like the risk at this point. I just don't know that a $30 to $50 billion purchase would sit well with Totoki who seems focused on getting Sony's finances in a better place. Something like that could derail his efforts in the short to mid term. But also, again, Microsoft is still out there. What do you think?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Let's talk for a second about what Sony is doing with Until Dawn as opposed to Bloodborne.

Sony was not going to give the responsibilities of making Bloodborne remaster or remake to Ballistic Moon. Ballistic Moon was a startup of former Supermassive Games employees. They probably came to Sony and asked if they could do a remake of Until Dawn and Sony evaluated it against their portfolio and decided that it would be a cheap game with transmedia potential, so it was greenlit.

People are convinced that Bloodborne isn't coming because it hasn't come, but Sony isn't dumb. They sold 8 million copies of Bloodborne and they know that Souls games are more popular on PC than they are on console.

They are looking at the best way to release Bloodborne in a profitable way.

First you have to ask yourself who is going to do the project. From has been very busy, when would people even imagine they would have remade or remastered the game? Dark Souls remastered was done by QLOC not FromSoftware. The Switch version was made by Virtous.

So it was not likely to be done by From themselves. So, the obvious answer is Bluepoint. Bluepoint is making whatever it is they're making right now. So if they're not working on Bloodborne, you don't have many other options. Maybe Nixxes would be an option given the work they've done with Horizon Zero Dawn.

Sony often tests new teams/smaller teams with smaller projects and people get mad if these products don't succeed, but if they were guaranteed to succeed, these teams would be working on bigger games.

Look at Iron Galaxy who I would almost bet my account on won't be involved in TLOU P2 on PC unless they were contracted to do so before the TLOU P1 PC game came out. It's almost certainly going to be Nixxes or Naughty Dog themselves. Similarly, Sony probably doesn't have much faith in Ballistic Moon going forward. They're certainly not going to hand them Bloodborne.

Sony allowed the port of Sackboy because they don't care about Sumo Digital's time. Time and resources are VERY valuable.

Why did Horizon Zero Dawn get remastered before Bloodborne?

• Nixxes has close ties with Guerrilla having also done the PC port of HFW
• Sony had big plans for Horizon with Transmedia that has been canceled/postponed

It made sense to have as much Horizon content as you can. Look at Fallout.

Something people aren't focused on is that Sony is running out of games to remaster, which isn't said tongue in cheek. This is a good problem to have because it means other properties can start getting attention.

The remaining games Sony could remaster are

God of War 2018 (and the rumored PS1-PS3 remasters, that make little sense to me)
Day's Gone
Uncharted 1-3
Infamous Second Son

I would not be surprised if we see something from Bloodborne within the next 2-3 years. Especially with this M&A. I think Sony needs to port Demon's Souls to PC first and foremost, but Nixxes is almost certainly busy. They have the following big projects:

TLOU2 (as I said I'm guessing they'll take over for Iron Galaxy, with hopefully some more touches on TLOU1) -- This should come out in time for the season 2 release next year.

We already know Nixxes is bringing Spider-Man 2 to PC January 30th, so that game is essentially done or close to being done.

So what else will they work on? Demon's Souls or GT7 is my guess, but GT7 is kind of a permanent project. You can see that they're expanding on Linkedin. The amount of work they'll have in coming years seems pretty staggering. I hope Sony will buy Jetpack Interactive to assist with a lot of this stuff.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Colin Moriarty has at least a few times now floated the idea of Sony buying Bandai Namco. Arguments I've heard for it are that they have some solid IP, they're not a family operated company so buying them might be a smoother ride, and they would contribute a lot to various areas that Sony lacks in. Though counters I've heard to that are that they may be too expensive for what they bring, there would likely be a lot of redundancies, and that they're also a huge toy company which Sony may not want or could cause them trouble.

On the Western side of things, are you of the opinion that the bigger companies are off the table for Sony? Like EA and T2. I know in the past you felt that T2 would be a move Sony might make but I can't help but feel like even if Sony came up with the money, they might not like the risk at this point. I just don't know that a $30 to $50 billion purchase would sit well with Totoki who seems focused on getting Sony's finances in a better place. Something like that could derail his efforts in the short to mid term. But also, again, Microsoft is still out there. What do you think?

Colin is an idiot. Bandai Namco has access to a lot of IP for gaming, but they don't own all of the IP, so a lot of it is still licensed. As I mentioned they're EXTREMELY expensive. And without FromSoftware, they're worth considerably less money. They don't really have any major groundbreaking IP.

They would honestly be a bad buy, especially for the price. They make largely generic games that sell based on IP. It's not really a Sony strategy to just release a lot of quantity. I don't think they're in line with Sony's culture. Even Bungie is focused on major IP.

I don't think there is any value in buying EA. You get so much more out of them just taking their 30 percent, especially as Xbox diminishes.

T2 on the other hand I think represents real value, but Sony has to find a way to make it work. They can't afford them when it comes to straight cash, so you're talking about potentially dangerous stock swaps. I think Sony needs to try and become a more profitable business before taking a real look at T2 in the next 5-10 years. There isn't a lot of risk involved with T2. I think people look at Red Dead and GTA, but they forget to look at 2K Sports and with the backing of Sony, I could see 2K Sport taking over FIFA and putting out a competitor to EA FC. I think you could give ClapHanz PGA Tour 2K and mend fences with them, this would slap in VR. I think you could put HB Studios on making a soccer game instead.

You can get better growth through M&A that put you in a better strategic position. If Sony can create a PC market place that generates 5 billion dollars annually, what does 30-50 billion dollars really mean at the end of the day?

You have to fear what happens if T2 is bought by someone else and foreclosing on you. It's too late for GTA6 to become exclusive, but Red Dead exclusivity on console would be huge and GTA6 exclusivity on PC along with GTA Online would also be massive tied to Elden Ring 2. It would make for a more profitable Marathon as well (even if Marathon isn't exclusive to the store).

This is how Sony turns itself into a Netflix sized company in a small amount of time. The next 5-10 years are crucial for Sony Group. They either grow substantially in Pictures and Gaming or they're going to get pushed out by Big Tech.

 

[Clear]

This is how Sony turns itself into a Netflix sized company in a small amount of time. The next 5-10 years are crucial for Sony Group. They either grow substantially in Pictures and Gaming or they're going to get pushed out by Big Tech.

This is basically all that needs to be understood about the situation.

This is a Sony Japan originated move. The Asian media market is huge, and getting ownership over an IP generation powerhouse like Kadokawa make business sense not because they feel like forcing their corporate vision onto a field where they have limited experience and expertise is worthwhile, but because of how useful ownership of such an entity would be as a feeder into their other business ventures.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

This is basically all that needs to be understood about the situation.

This is a Sony Japan originated move. The Asian media market is huge, and getting ownership over an IP generation powerhouse like Kadokawa make business sense not because they feel like forcing their corporate vision onto a field where they have limited experience and expertise is worthwhile, but because of how useful ownership of such an entity would be as a feeder into their other business ventures.

I'm not saying you're wrong here, but I think the primary function of this deal is FromSoftware, despite people (not you) trying to make it more about anime and manga (we'll get to that).

I think SIE has had FromSoftware on its radar probably since Dark Souls was successful, but Kadokawa bought them in 2014. They missed the mark (and they'd miss it again in 2014 with Mojang). It was a rough time for Sony because the PS3 had not been successful. They weren't exactly flush with cash at the time. In April of 2014, Sony had sold its entire Square Enix share.

Sony bought shares of Kadokawa in 2021, but they bought 14% of FromSoftware in 2022. And it was SIE who bought the shares of FromSoftware.

I don't want to minimize the anime and manga, but there are other companies Sony could buy for this with stronger IP. It seems clear to me that it is a plus for Sony but what they want is Elden Ring and FromSoftware.

The capital alliance formed in 2021 was a precursor to this acquisition, which should potentially put our eyes on CyberAgent in terms of Sony wanting to expand into mobile.

 

[Ebrietas]

The answer to this is complicated.

• They're worth more to Sony than they are to most other companies because Sony owns Demon's Souls and Bloodborne
• If you compare them to CDPR who are currently worth 3.86 billion dollars, it's probably easiest to compare these two companies
  • CDPR has two massive IP in The Witcher and Cyberpunk, but they don't own either IP, each of these games has the ability to sell 30 million units though
  • Elden Ring sold 25 million copies on PC (and is still selling) and From owns the IP
  • Bloodborne sold 8 million copies on PS4 alone, you could assume it would do at least 8 million on PC. That's 16 million copies. maybe even closer to 20 million
  • While FromSoftware doesn't own Dark Souls, SIE does own Demon's Souls. Dark Souls 3 sold 10 million copies, but From's games are selling better than that now
• The Witcher 3 came out in 2015 and Cyberpunk in 2020. CDPR takes about 5 years to release new games
• Since 2015, FromSoftware has released: Bloodborne, Dark Souls 3, Sekiro, Elden Ring, and Armored Core 6, among other titles like Deracine.

I think you could conclude that FromSoftware is worth maybe 2-3 billion dollars on its own, but for Sony, they're probably worth 4-5 billion. That you could get Kadokawa for 4 billion dollars is a massive steal. So Sony has a ton of incentive to get this deal done. I think they're even more valuable to Sony if they can help Sony launch a successful PC launcher.

ER did not sell 25 million on PC. Those are total sales.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

ER did not sell 25 million on PC. Those are total sales.

Poorly worded on my part, I mean with PC sales to draw contrast to Bloodborne that didn't get a PC release.

 

[Varteras]

I'm not saying you're wrong here, but I think the primary function of this deal is FromSoftware, despite people (not you) trying to make it more about anime and manga (we'll get to that).

I think SIE has had FromSoftware on its radar probably since Dark Souls was successful, but Kadokawa bought them in 2014. They missed the mark (and they'd miss it again in 2014 with Mojang). It was a rough time for Sony because the PS3 had not been successful. They weren't exactly flush with cash at the time. In April of 2014, Sony had sold its entire Square Enix share.

Sony bought shares of Kadokawa in 2021, but they bought 14% of FromSoftware in 2022. And it was SIE who bought the shares of FromSoftware.

I don't want to minimize the anime and manga, but there are other companies Sony could buy for this with stronger IP. It seems clear to me that it is a plus for Sony but what they want is Elden Ring and FromSoftware.

The capital alliance formed in 2021 was a precursor to this acquisition, which should potentially put our eyes on CyberAgent in terms of Sony wanting to expand into mobile.

Yeah this seems to me to be the most likely scenario. Elden Ring has a lot of transmedia opportunity. FromSoft itself is a prolific studio that just seems to produce nothing but bangers anymore. Highly awarded. Highly anticipated. Sales in the 10+ million range and probably not as expensive to make as Sony's big Western studios. It is, without a doubt, THE prize Sony and Totoki are gunning for. Everything else is a happy bonus that happens to fit Sony's business.

Though I do wonder if Sony will allow Acquire and Spike Chunsoft to do their thing or if this creates a dangerous situation for them. Acquire might be fine thanks to its work on Octopath for SE as Sony might see value in a company that can create games like that, but Spike might be a little too niche for modern Sony. What do you think?

Funny thing about CyberAgent is that you said about a year or so ago that Sony may very well be looking at them for acquisition because it is one of the bigger mobile gaming companies. Now here we are looking at Sony buying one of its two partners from that capital alliance. Are you a wizard?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Yeah this seems to me to be the most likely scenario. Elden Ring has a lot of transmedia opportunity. FromSoft itself is a prolific studio that just seems to produce nothing but bangers anymore. Highly awarded. Highly anticipated. Sales in the 10+ million range and probably not as expensive to make as Sony's big Western studios. It is, without a doubt, THE prize Sony and Totoki are gunning for. Everything else is a happy bonus that happens to fit Sony's business.

Though I do wonder if Sony will allow Acquire and Spike Chunsoft to do their thing or if this creates a dangerous situation for them. Acquire might be fine thanks to its work on Octopath for SE as Sony might see value in a company that can create games like that, but Spike might be a little too niche for modern Sony. What do you think?

Funny thing about CyberAgent is that you said about a year or so ago that Sony may very well be looking at them for acquisition because it is one of the bigger mobile gaming companies. Now here we are looking at Sony buying one of its two partners from that capital alliance. Are you a wizard?

I would not be surprised if Acquire and Spike Chunsoft end up under Aniplex/SMEJ. It depends on whether Herman wants to manage them or not. The one thing you're missing in Japan is centralized leadership. Almost all PlayStation Studios are independent-natured studios, but some definitely have more autonomy than others in terms of how they contribute to the portfolio.

I don't know how Acquire and Spike fit into that larger portfolio. Their games aren't going to be system sellers and thus they'll be more profitable making games across platforms, but this whole SMEJ situation probably needs to be re-evaluated anyways once Sony puts out their own handheld again.

As to whether I'm a wizard, the answer is yes, I am a wizard, but somehow not many see that, so thanks for the flowers there.

Sony desperately wants into mobile and they know they're late to the party, but they're going to have to ask themselves what helps them more CyberAgent or Square Enix and if they go with CyberAgent whether or not that will fall under SIE or SMEJ. Like I said, that situation has to give way to something more logical in the future.

 

[yurinka]

Colin Moriarty has at least a few times now floated the idea of Sony buying Bandai Namco.

In the future maybe yes, but as of now Bandai Namco is too expensive for Sony. And well, like the other gaming companies who run pachinko stuff they may be ruled by or under the influence of the yakuza, who may not want to sell.

They are the top grossing Japanese 3rd party publisher. They own a ton of valuable gaming IPs like Tekken or Pac-Man and a long history with Sony. They also have in exclusivity the rights to use a ton of manga/anime IPs in gaming and toys, but many of them aren't under Sony's control in the manga/anime area. But well, Sony could use that expertise to ask them to also adapt Sony owned manga/anime IPs.

Sony may not be interested in toys (I think they should, to use them as merchandising of their IPs), but Bandai Namco is the top 1 toys and figurines maker of Japan and top 2 in the world. Same goes with the arcade and manga stuff, they have a big business there.

This acquisition could face issues with regulators. So at least in the short term it won't happen, but if Sony keeps being profitable and saving money, they could acquire them in the mid-long term if (I think won't happen) they would be open to sell.

In terms of business it would be the best possible acquisition of a Japanese company that Sony could do if it was possible.

Like EA and T2.

They are even more too expensive for Sony. Sure, they are way more valuable and way more important than Bandai Namco, and would have a higher impact in the gaming market (particularly on console in their fight vs MS) but their acquisition is out of the table for being too expensive and because would very likely cause issues with regulators.

And well, they always wanted to be independent, support all the platforms and historically never wanted to sell. So I'd forget them.

If something, something that Sony could more realistically could buy is Private Division from Take 2. Maybe Sony is the secret acquirer.

 

[W11d]

Spike Chunsoft with their anime games will naturally fits Aniplex.
Acquire was acquired by Kadokawa only this year. We have no idea what games they're doing under Kadokawa. It may even be a new Tenchu game

 

[AmuroChan]

In the future maybe yes, but as of now Bandai Namco is too expensive for Sony.

Bandai Namco is too big for Sony to acquire. They have a cap of $13B which means realistically you'd have to pay upwards of $18-$20B to acquire them. The only real practical pathway for those two to get together is a merger. Acquisition is not a realistic option.

 

[yurinka]

Bandai Namco is too big for Sony to acquire. They have a cap of $13B which means realistically you'd have to pay upwards of $18-$20B to acquire them. The only real practical pathway for those two to get together is a merger. Acquisition is not a realistic option.

I don't know what debt Bandai Namco has (that would move down the price) but, the acquisition price + acquisition costs must be a little over $20B.

Sure, Sony could make a special effort and to pay part with cash (as an example the one coming from selling their banks stuff starting late next year), part with stocks, part with money from selling something else, part with extra debt... but I don't see them doing that.

They are not that desperate to make thes efforts, I think smaller profile acquisitions like Kadokawa make more sense right now. Bandai Namco may make more sense later, maybe in minimum 3-5 years from now.

 

[HarryKS]

Bandai Namco is too big for Sony to acquire. They have a cap of $13B which means realistically you'd have to pay upwards of $18-$20B to acquire them. The only real practical pathway for those two to get together is a merger. Acquisition is not a realistic option.

They issue shares or convert them.

 

[Det]

It's worse than the PS4 version. Just from the video you can understand... Imagine playing for real.

 

[Perrott]

Let's talk for a second about what Sony is doing with Until Dawn as opposed to Bloodborne.

Sony was not going to give the responsibilities of making Bloodborne remaster or remake to Ballistic Moon. Ballistic Moon was a startup of former Supermassive Games employees. They probably came to Sony and asked if they could do a remake of Until Dawn and Sony evaluated it against their portfolio and decided that it would be a cheap game with transmedia potential, so it was greenlit.

Until Dawn remake at Ballistic Moon was greenlit shortly after plans to produce an Until Dawn sequel at Firesprite were put into motion in 2020, for which Firesprite hired former Telltale writers, some other Supermassive people and even brought a Naughty Dog lead as an associate director in the spring of 2021 (although he quit in 2023 after collecting the last talent-retention bonus from the acquisition).

The remake was made in Unreal Engine as opposed to Decima because that's what Firesprite are utilizing for the sequel (per job listings), and I bet the shift in camera perspective was due to the new game having an over-the-shoulder view as well, and maybe even more actual gameplay than the original (as opposed to relying so heavily on QTE) because Firesprite has been talking about for a while about their ambition to redefine the genre.

Final reason as to why the Until Dawn remake was greenlit is, as you mentioned, the transmedia opportunity - or rather, the relaunch of the franchise. The original game is 9 years old, while the series' last VR spin-off came out nearly 7 years ago. Through the release of this remake, they get current-gen and PC SKUs of the game out in advance to the film coming out six months from now; and they set the stage for a sequel which, if I were to make an educated guess, should only be 15 months away max at this point.

 

[Varteras]

Until Dawn remake at Ballistic Moon was greenlit shortly after plans to produce an Until Dawn sequel at Firesprite were put into motion in 2020, for which Firesprite hired former Telltale writers, some other Supermassive people and even brought a Naughty Dog lead as an associate director in the spring of 2021 (although he quit in 2023 after collecting the last talent-retention bonus from the acquisition).

The remake was made in Unreal Engine as opposite to Decima because that's what Firesprite are utilizing for the sequel (per job listings), and I bet the shift in camera perspective was due to the new game having an over-the-shoulder view as well, and maybe even more actual gameplay than the original (as opposed to relying so heavily on QTE) because Firesprite has mentioned the ambition to redefine the genre.

Final reason as to why the Until Dawn remake was greenlit is, as you mentioned, the transmedia opportunity - or rather, the relaunch of the franchise. The original game is 9 years old, while the series' last VR spin-off came out nearly 7 years ago. Through the release of this remake, they get current-gen and PC SKUs of the game out in advance to the film coming out six months from now; and they set the stage for a sequel which, if I were to make an educated guess, should only be 15 months away max at this point.

So that is the dark narrative game that Firesprite was working on with Fabrik?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

A lot of posters aren't familiar with stock swap deals.

As Sony's stock increases in value, the easier it will be for them to acquire a large company via stock swap.

Before Microsoft announced they were acquiring Activision, Sony's stock was for what is now the equivalent of 24.86 (they did a major stock split to make their stock more flexible).

The acquisition wiped out 20 billion dollars in value for Sony instantly... While not cash, this is value Sony could have used in a stock swap.

Sony has since climbed back to 19.06. They're worth about 119 billion right now. If their stock returns to 24.86 for example, it would raise their stock value to 155 billion dollars. That increase in value of 36 billion dollars would easily go a long way towards buying out a company like T2 via stock swap.


Anytime someone tells you that T2 isn't realistic or that regulators would stop it, know immediately that they don't know what they're talking about.

They have limited vision and limited understanding.

• Cash is not the only way companies acquire other companies
• T2 is significantly smaller than ABK
• Most of T2's games would remain multiplatform, ex MLB The Show
• Almost all of these games would remain on PC, see Sony's first-party games almost all hitting PC at this point
• See Xbox's decline in market share already, which has not been based on foreclosures, i.e. few customers would be impacted
• It would create more competition in the PC game distribution market

So the question about Sony buying companies that are worth more than their cash on hand is really at the end of the day, how does that company strategically fit with Sony? Are they additive or are they multiplicative? Buying a company and only adding their revenue to yours is generally not a great strategy, see Microsoft. Adding a company that can help transform how you do business? That's multiplicative. That's Bungie and FromSoftware.

 

[Perrott]

So that is the dark narrative game that Firesprite was working on with Fabrik?

The Fabrik game was a different project, I believe sci-fi in nature, which was gutted years ago alongside several other Firesprite projects (namely, a new multiplayer action shooter IP) to concentrate all resources on getting Call of the Mountain out and continuing development on Twisted Metal (which has since gotten canned due to the severe mismanagement and lack of vision of its project leads) and the dark narrative adventure, aka Until Dawn 2.

It seemed that the studio had the same ambitions as Bungie of becoming a 3-4 simultaneous projects powerhouse, but same as them, their leadership failed to execute on that vision and now they're solely the Until Dawn 2 studio, after they also laid off the talent attached to Call of the Mountain (who had moved on to Twisted Metal, planned to be an hybrid VR/PS5 release, like GT7 or RE4), so no more VR from them.

 

[Davey Cakes]

After the travesty that was the ABK buyout, consolidation via acquisitions and mergers are going to happen - that genie is out of the bottle. Regulators had an opportunity to stop it, they didn't, here we are.

I guess that's the crux of the issue. After what happened with the likes of Microsoft, Embracer Group, and Disney, I don't know why anyone could trust that these massive acquisitions are for the greater good.

 

[Mayar]

I look at these 16 pages of discussion, and I think that such passionate and heated discussions of this issue are not taking place even within Kadokawa itself.

 

[demigod]

A lot of posters aren't familiar with stock swap deals.

As Sony's stock increases in value, the easier it will be for them to acquire a large company via stock swap.

Before Microsoft announced they were acquiring Activision, Sony's stock was for what is now the equivalent of 24.86 (they did a major stock split to make their stock more flexible).

The acquisition wiped out 20 billion dollars in value for Sony instantly... While not cash, this is value Sony could have used in a stock swap.

Sony has since climbed back to 19.06. They're worth about 119 billion right now. If their stock returns to 24.86 for example, it would raise their stock value to 155 billion dollars. That increase in value of 36 billion dollars would easily go a long way towards buying out a company like T2 via stock swap.


Anytime someone tells you that T2 isn't realistic or that regulators would stop it, know immediately that they don't know what they're talking about.

They have limited vision and limited understanding.

• Cash is not the only way companies acquire other companies
• T2 is significantly smaller than ABK
• Most of T2's games would remain multiplatform, ex MLB The Show
• Almost all of these games would remain on PC, see Sony's first-party games almost all hitting PC at this point
• See Xbox's decline in market share already, which has not been based on foreclosures, i.e. few customers would be impacted
• It would create more competition in the PC game distribution market

So the question about Sony buying companies that are worth more than their cash on hand is really at the end of the day, how does that company strategically fit with Sony? Are they additive or are they multiplicative? Buying a company and only adding their revenue to yours is generally not a great strategy, see Microsoft. Adding a company that can help transform how you do business? That's multiplicative. That's Bungie and FromSoftware.

MLB The Show is a Sony game. You must be thinking of NBA2K.

 

[nial]

XDEV's -a.k.a. External Development- Japanese team (previously inside Japan Studio since they merged) is the one who handled games like Demon's Souls, Bloodborne, Demon's Souls Remake or more recently -after the restructuring- Death Stranding Director's Cut, Stellar Blade, Rise of the Ronin, Lost Soul Aside, Convallaria, Death Stranding 2 or Physint.

They continue doing the same job than before in the same building they were before: the Japanese SIE HQ building. But in a newer office because now they also handle the games from the rest of Asia, not only the Japanese ones.

Yeah, man, I know. I, out of all people, don't need this explained, lol.

In Moby Games you can double check who worked both in Demon's Souls remake and in Astro Bot, Stellar Blade or Rise of the Ronin.

That's where I got them; Kazuma Kizuka, Edward Saito, Shunan Sukawa and Toshitake Tsuchikura.

Demon's Soul's remake was developed and published before the Bluepoint acquisition, so it was a 2nd party game, so handled by XDEV, like the other games I mentioned.

Your problem is assuming that it was purely an external production, it wasn't. There was staff from the internal development department (Astro Bot, Knack, Gravity Rush) that worked on Demon's Souls. Gavin Moore (director of Puppeteer) literally led the project; you NEVER had SIE staff acting as directors on previous external projects.

Even if as usual there's someone from the internal development teams supporting these games.

No, it isn't "as usual".

 

[Edmund]

First half of the video - Pony Edmund is nervous about the kadokawa deal not going through.

2nd of the video. - The deal goes through and Pony Edmund does a little celebratory skip and dance.

 

[ShadyAcshuns]

I look at these 16 pages of discussion, and I think that such passionate and heated discussions of this issue are not taking place even within Kadokawa itself.

This thread is like a room of Sony employees, stockholders, historians and jock holders.

 

[Varteras]

This thread is like a room of Sony employees, stockholders, historians and jock holders.

Here you are. You must be a jock holder. Me too.

 

[DeepEnigma]

This thread is like a room of Sony employees, stockholders, historians and jock holders.

Stockholder here

 

[Mayar]

Stockholder here

Can you please convey to Sony management that this will be a very good deal for business?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

MLB The Show is a Sony game. You must be thinking of NBA2K.

My point was that MLB The Show is evidence that all of 2K Sports games would be multiplatform post merger. So they couldn't be used to cite foreclosure concerns.

 

[fersnake]

Phantom


The only thing deluded and demented is thinking just because Sony acquires FromSoft that they're going to suddenly turn into Concord, despite the fact that Sony is a big reason the entire genre of Souls even exists given their push for many early titles.

I want a more polished FromSoft experience. Sony acquiring them will likely make that happen. I am not worried about them mandating anything from California where zero control is exerted on Japanese studios.

doesn't matter ppl only see what they want to see and they choose the bad stuff no matter if Sony succeed 100 times on their projects if only one result is bad they are gonna keep digging that wound.

The funny thing to me is how ppl are getting mad at this but when MS bought Zenimax and Activision and they were dancing and celebrating LOL.

 

[FrankWza]

Remember. The devil you know is better than the devil that you know sucks

 

[Ebrietas]

doesn't matter ppl only see what they want to see and they choose the bad stuff no matter if Sony succeed 100 times on their projects if only one result is bad they are gonna keep digging that wound.

The funny thing to me is how ppl are getting mad at this but when MS bought Zenimax and Activision and they were dancing and celebrating LOL.

Those were good because the devs would have the full financial backing of MS and wouldn't have to worry about anything else and just focus on making the games they want.

But somehow FROM having the full financial and technical backing of SIE to make whatever they want in even shorter time and not have to make unfavorable deals with third parties like Bamco is bad, and Miyazaki will immediately leave the company because he can no longer release games on Xbox and maybe PC.

 

[yurinka]

Your problem is assuming that it was purely an external production, it wasn't. There was staff from the internal development department (Astro Bot, Knack, Gravity Rush) that worked on Demon's Souls. Gavin Moore (director of Puppeteer) literally led the project; you NEVER had SIE staff acting as directors on previous external projects.

No, it isn't "as usual".

As I said it was a 2nd party game because the main developer who did most of the work was Bluepoint, back then not acquired by Sony.

And yes, as usual, because Sony did it in most 2nd party games they published since decades ago, they got dev support from Sony. Sometimes from internal Sony support teams, sometimes from hired outsourcing teams managed and sometimes yes, from the internal development team of that studio.

Because like in most other studios, the different teams inside the Japan Studio office weren't completely separated, to be more productive most people jumped from a project to another as needed due to the timing of when each person finished their job in some project and were needed somewhere else, independently if each project was from this or that team.

And that doesn't only apply for internally developed games, it also includes the dev support for the projects handled by their 2nd party publishing team, yes. Most people from there who supported development of these 2nd party games like Demon's Souls remake mainly worked on internally developed titles.

And well, from time to time that people also supported other non-Japan Studio first party games like multiple Gran Turismo games, or a few 3rd party games like FFVII Remake. In most AAA games it happens when there are some guys free of work and aren't planned to have a work for them for a while on their own projects: in that case they normally support a friend studio.

A common example of this in Sony is Bend and Naughty Dog, who have been helping each other for decades.

But well, in case of XDEV (not only their Japanese team) even if they mainly handle Sony's 2nd party games, they also commonly manage internal or external (outsourcing) support for internally developed games from the different Sony studios, and in some rare cases 3rd party games too.

Regarding the project's leadership, Sony's external development team (XDEV) manages / are in charge of all their second party projects and provide support in all the areas needed by the supported team. In this case, Bluepoint doesn't have and didn't have back then a game director. So in this case Japan Studio did assign there Garvin, in the same way than when they need artists they put there artists or when they need coders they put there coders.

Those were good because the devs would have the full financial backing of MS and wouldn't have to worry about anything else and just focus on making the games they want.

But somehow FROM having the full financial and technical backing of SIE to make whatever they want in even shorter time and not have to make unfavorable deals with third parties like Bamco is bad, and Miyazaki will immediately leave the company because he can no longer release games on Xbox and maybe PC.

I think that the most likely scenario is that if acquired, Kadokawa will be located inside the Japanese branch of Sony Music because it's where Sony has most of their anime stuff, and the majority of Kadokawa is their manga/publishing/anime part and not gaming.

That Sony Music branch also has several Japanese focused multiplatform (or mobile) gaming teams. And Kadokawa too, so more reasons for them to put them there.

The integration is going to be super complex, and I think the easier option and probably the most profitable / cheaper one for them in the short term, so the most likely one, would be to simply did put Kadokawa under the Japanese branch of Sony Music and to allow them to continue working exactly as they did before (but in case of console gaming blocking any future deal with MS or Nintendo that wasn't already signed before the acquisition).

Meaning, future Elden Ring or Sekiro games and other Kadokawa games would continue being multiplatform (including even Xbox and Nintendo) even if now self published (since some time ago FromSoft have been preparing to self publish and bought some of the IPs they created), in the same way Aniplex also makes multiplatform games.

My favorite option would be to move FromSoft and Acquire to PS Studios, and to make all their future games full console exclusive and maybe to release them around a couple years later on PC. But they may not do it because that could leave money on the table, and to make changes would mean longer and more expensive acquisition and integration.

I think they'll just move Kadokawa there just as it is. And then later somewhere in the future, once the acquisition and integration is done, they may consider to move FromSoft (and maybe Acquire too) to PS Studios / SIE.

 

[nial]

As I said it was a 2nd party game because the main developer who did most of the work was Bluepoint, back then not acquired by Sony.

I will be honest and say that I don't want to address such a long post, so I will just tell you that I don't agree with this.
It was also just from my speculation as to why a Bluepoint remake of Bloodborne is likely never happening, so I hope we can move on since it doesn't have much to do with the thread topic, anyway.

 

[yurinka]

I will be honest and say that I don't want to address such a long post, so I will just tell you that I don't agree with this.
It was also just from my speculation as to why a Bluepoint remake of Bloodborne is likely never happening, so I hope we can move on since it doesn't have much to do with the thread topic, anyway.

I also think that a Bluepoint remake won't happen because they moved away from remakes and now work in new games, as did in GoWR.

 

[mayham2199]

I'd like to think so too. But I have a feeling that there hasn't been a Bloodborne remaster/remake due to contractual reasons, something along the lines of if there is to be one then From have to do it themselves (which they haven't had time to do due to Elden Ring)

I think this is the case to. It was their favorite title. I could see them requesting that.

 

[bitbydeath]

I don't know how Acquire and Spike fit into that larger portfolio. Their games aren't going to be system sellers

I don’t know about that, Spike’s latest game, Sparking Zero sold 3M copies in less than a day.

 

[nial]

I would not be surprised if Acquire and Spike Chunsoft end up under Aniplex/SMEJ.

As I mentioned before, Spike Chunsoft is already under Dwango, and they're not going to be moved to Aniplex as they're a publisher themselves, since it would be difficult to manage. They will most likely stay under Dwango (which will also ensure that their DB Sparking games still get made), which I do think will get moved to SMEJ.
Acquire would be a good idea for SIE if they're fully committed to this:

I remember No Heroes Allowed! VR blowing up in social media back when it came out, so I still believe it would have been way more popular if it wasn't, well, a PSVR exclusive.

 

[Ar¢tos]

This thread is like a room of Sony employees, stockholders, historians and jock holders.

What's a jock?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

As I mentioned before, Spike Chunsoft is already under Dwango, and they're not going to be moved to Aniplex as they're a publisher themselves, since it would be difficult to manage. They will most likely stay under Dwango (which will also ensure that their DB Sparking games still get made), which I do think will get moved to SMEJ.
Acquire would be a good idea for SIE if they're fully committed to this:

I remember No Heroes Allowed! VR blowing up in social media back when it came out, so I still believe it would have been way more popular if it wasn't, well, a PSVR exclusive.

We have no idea how Kadokawa's main branches will be managed.

I don’t know about that, Spike’s latest game, Sparking Zero sold 3M copies in less than a day.

I'm not saying that it wasn't a lot of copies. What I'm saying is it's probably not the type of game that is a system seller. It sold well as a multiplatform game. It's also a licensed game that that was published by the licenseholder. Not something that you'd generally see SIE actively manage.

 

[Effigenius]

I don't care about this acquistion.

But if it goes through, here for meltdowns.

I think you’re a little confused. This is a Sony acquisition. We are on gaf. There will be no meltdowns. Only cheerleading.