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[Deleted member 17706]

This is just common protocol for infectious diseases. It is tricky no doubt but experts observe trends in cases. One a certain threshold is met the quarantine can be lifted and the virus can be controlled.

Yeah, I understand that's the argument, but is there anything out there explaining the mechanism for why that might be true?

It doesn't seem to make sense that the virus can spread from a single source to hundreds of thousands across the globe, yet somehow be controlled by slowing its growth through temporary social distancing. Permanent social distancing, I would understand, but that would be devastating on society.

 

[jufonuk]

Waiting to hear what France decides to do.

 

[Kenpachii]

Jup watched the dutch conference just now.

They can track the corana virus by seeing strains in the virus itself. They know if u get infected from somebody outside of the country or somebody inside and can even find the origin because of those strains. They had control over it until this day where they see strains where they can't find the origin off which means they have no control over it anymore.

- No bigger groups then 100 people. Everything that is bigger then 100 will be cancelled all events and everything, work related stuff, religion related stuff, sport related stuff everything.
- Older people avoid public area's like the plague.
- Schools stay open or else the whole country support structure will crumble with parents in vital positions staying home like nurses etc. Higher education and university's which are more international by origin will stay at home as much as they can and get home teached through video conferences that are given. Also high school and university people have older kids that will not effect parents much in work positions.
- If you feel something is wrong or u think u got something stay at home directly and call in a doctor if it escalates.
- Working people work at home if its possible or else watch your health while going out.

While it's not on the level of italia over here and everything is still concentrated in the south, these measurements are taken as of now to reduce the spread as much as possible before it goes into its next phase.

 

[Jtibh]

My wife got home from work.

She said they had a child going to the cast clinic and he was tested positive for the virus.
There were people from her unit there that went back to her trauma unit. They who were in contact with the kid will be tested.
She also said she got a corona patient they put in isolation.

She said casual workers are cancelling their shifts.
Her whole unit is shitting their pants as they know more is to come .
And they are already short staffed.

She works the next 6 days in a row with 2 days off but if there is no staff she will be forced to work through.

Fun times.
Virus is probably coming into my house if its not already here.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

This is only the beginning. Shit is going to GO DOWN hard.
Most of the countries are severaly lagging behind before the shit hits the fan fully (or are not doing enough testing).

It's only now that companies are slowly starting to let people go (and downsize). The chain effect has only just started.

This is either super temporary as the result of a pandemic, which means the recovery boom is going to be insane once things get back to normal, or it's going to be the end times and we're all going to be shooting and looting to survive in a month or so.

 

[Cybrwzrd]

Seems like the economic damage (leading to real damage) could be far worse as a result of any long term shutdown.

The economic damage from 3-4 weeks of national quarantine are more like a pause button on a blu-ray. The economic effects of an uncontrolled pandemic are the collapse of society as we know it as tens of thousands die from lack of treatment because medical professionals are all sick and dying.

 

[Halo is Back]

Yeah, I understand that's the argument, but is there anything out there explaining the mechanism for why that might be true?

It doesn't seem to make sense that the virus can spread from a single source to hundreds of thousands across the globe, yet somehow be controlled by slowing its growth through temporary social distancing. Permanent social distancing, I would understand, but that would be devastating on society.

Go do some research then if you are that curious. I don't know how else to explain this.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

- Schools stay open or else the whole country support structure will crumble with parents in vital positions staying home like nurses etc. Higher education and university's which are more international by origin will stay at home as much as they can and get home teached through video conferences that are given.

This seems super reasonable. I think the guy on the Rogan show estimated something like 30 ~ 40% of nurses in America have school aged children, and closing down schools effectively takes a sizable percentage of them out of the workforce, which just exacerbates the problem.

Go do some research then if you are that curious. I don't know how else to explain this.

You haven't explained anything. I've been trying to find a clear answer to these questions, but have failed to do so which is why I posted in this thread about it in case anyone else had a good link.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

 

[prag16]

I was listening to some 'experts' on radio four talk about this last night. They reckon gov't is right and acting on bets advice. Basically, whilst a lock down is likely to happen you have to time it right because you can't lock down indefinitely, otherwise things start to fall apart and you get even bigger problems. And if you do it too early, you might preempt the peak. And if you do it too late, you fucked up also. There will be a magic number in the modelling that will trigger the more serious measures, like school closures. Also if they do it from next week, that's two weeks until the holidays.

Many school districts in CT are already closing, effective today. There are 3 cases in CT. I just don't see how they'll be be able to reopen at all this school year. This feels like it's in the "too soon" category. You can't stop the world indefinitely, as you noted things will start to fall apart sooner rather than later. The elites will be fine, but the bottom 50% (or more) could end up totally fucked.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

The economic damage from 3-4 weeks of national quarantine are more like a pause button on a blu-ray. The economic effects of an uncontrolled pandemic are the collapse of society as we know it as tens of thousands die from lack of treatment because medical professionals are all sick and dying.

I hope you're right, but things are already looking pretty dire and we're just a week or so in from the first confirmed deaths in the US and only a few days into school shutdowns, etc. in most areas that are doing it.

 

[sinnergy]

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12...ronavirus-herd-immunity-writes-robert-peston/

Seems the UK government has concluded that closing schools would deplete the available workforce for healthcare etc.

There where research reports from China 3 months ago , that people could get it twice? So they weren’t immune after catching it the first time.

Isn’t this tricky ? how is the EU or UK sure that you become immune?

Looks to me like a cluster fuck in the making.

Yes I followed it al from January.

 

[Halo is Back]

This seems super reasonable. I think the guy on the Rogan show estimated something like 30 ~ 40% of nurses in America have school aged children, and closing down schools effectively takes a sizable percentage of them out of the workforce, which just exacerbates the problem.



You haven't explained anything. I've been trying to find a clear answer to these questions, but have failed to do so which is why I posted in this thread about it in case anyone else had a good link.

Its the internet. You can find a source. Its pretty self explanatory tbh

 

[Smiles and Cries]

 

[prag16]

Jup watched the dutch conference just now.

They can track the corana virus by seeing strains in the virus itself. They know if u get infected from somebody outside of the country or somebody inside and can even find the origin because of those strains. They had control over it until this day where they see strains where they can't find the origin off which means they have no control over it anymore.

- No bigger groups then 100 people. Everything that is bigger then 100 will be cancelled all events and everything, work related stuff, religion related stuff, sport related stuff everything.
- Older people avoid public area's like the plague.
- Schools stay open or else the whole country support structure will crumble with parents in vital positions staying home like nurses etc. Higher education and university's which are more international by origin will stay at home as much as they can and get home teached through video conferences that are given.
- If you feel something is wrong or u think u got something stay at home directly and call in a doctor if it escalates.
- Working people work at home if its possible or else go out be keep track of your health.

See, this seems like a more or less reasoned response all things considered. Schools should not be closed. People should not be flooding ERs for sniffles, taking services away from those who actualy direly need it. Avoid public places when possible. Work from home when possible. (But not to the extreme that it completely disrupts and destroys everyday life.) Don't dismantle all of society. Use common sense.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Its the internet. You can find a source. Its pretty self explanatory tbh

Yes, I've been trying to do that. My original post was in response to a link to a detailed paper explaining the value of social distancing in slowing the spread of the disease, which I get, but I'm trying to understand the mechanism or logic for why temporary short-term policies will be able to "stop" this disease from doing catastrophic damage rather than just delay it.

Do you always tell people who have questions to just go find out the answers for themselves?

 

[prag16]

The economic damage from 3-4 weeks of national quarantine are more like a pause button on a blu-ray. The economic effects of an uncontrolled pandemic are the collapse of society as we know it as tens of thousands die from lack of treatment because medical professionals are all sick and dying.

Not to sound crass (which I know I will), but this isn't killing (or even sickening for the most part) the young and productive people who are the engine of the world economy. "Stopping" the world economy for 3-4 weeks (probably more if we're being realistic; this won't be "contained" in 3-4 weeks) is going to do an absurd amount of damage to the bottom 90%. The elites will be fine. Which I guess is why the elites have no problem firing the world economy into the sun "out of an abundance of caution".

 

[Cybrwzrd]

I hope you're right, but things are already looking pretty dire and we're just a week or so in from the first confirmed deaths in the US and only a few days into school shutdowns, etc. in most areas that are doing it.

We haven't done anything to stop the spread yet. We are still extremely vulnerable.

Think of the virus like this, if you are having trouble comprehending how social distancing will stop the spread:

The virus isn't like an immortal being that will keep on spreading without hosts to spread it. Once it runs out of hosts to infect, it will die off. If you can keep the virus from spreading it runs out of food and starves off. It really isn't all the complicated. If you can prevent everyone who catches the disease from infecting others, it will burn out.

 

[chitzy]

This is either super temporary as the result of a pandemic, which means the recovery boom is going to be insane once things get back to normal, or it's going to be the end times and we're all going to be shooting and looting to survive in a month or so.

Sounds like a win-win.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Another Utah Jazz player has coronavirus
The Utah Jazz said another player on the team has tested positive for coronavirus. The Jazz did not name the player.
Here's the Jazz statement:

As a follow-up to yesterday’s positive COVID-19 test, Oklahoma health officials tested all members of the Utah Jazz traveling party, confirming one additional positive outcome for a Jazz player. We are working closely with the CDC, Oklahoma and Utah state officials, and the NBA to monitor their health and determine the best path moving forward.

Another Utah Jazz player has coronavirus

The Utah Jazz said another player on the team has tested positive for coronavirus. The Jazz did not name the player.

www.cnn.com

 

[Halo is Back]

Yes, I've been trying to do that. My original post was in response to a link to a detailed paper explaining the value of social distancing in slowing the spread of the disease, which I get, but I'm trying to understand the mechanism or logic for why temporary short-term policies will be able to "stop" this disease from doing catastrophic damage rather than just delay it.

Do you always tell people who have questions to just go find out the answers for themselves?

I already explained it to you but you fail to grasp the concept that is dose not eliminate it. Don't like my explanation? Find another one.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

The private jet industry has had a big boost since Trump's travel ban announcement
From CNN's Tamara Hardingham-Gill

Private jet companies have seen a surge in demand in the hours since the Europe travel ban was announced by President Trump.
Adam Twidell, CEO of on-demand private jet charter provider PrivateFly, says the company is receiving a “significant number of requests” from Americans currently in Europe who are seeking to return to the US, as well as those who want to fly from Europe to the UK, which is exempt from the ban at present.

read more

The private jet industry has had a big boost since Trump's travel ban announcement

Private jet companies have seen a surge in demand in the hours since the Europe travel ban was announced by President Trump.

www.cnn.com

 

[Bullet Club]

 

[Cybrwzrd]

Not to sound crass (which I know I will), but this isn't killing (or even sickening for the most part) the young and productive people who are the engine of the world economy. "Stopping" the world economy for 3-4 weeks (probably more if we're being realistic; this won't be "contained" in 3-4 weeks) is going to do an absurd amount of damage to the bottom 90%. The elites will be fine. Which I guess is why the elites have no problem firing the world economy into the sun "out of an abundance of caution".

Viruses mutate. Can you guarantee it won't evolve into a more virulent strain once exposed to millions? That is how we have different influenza strains every year.

The old elites won't be fine by the way. Money won't buy you better care when all the equipment is already used up on others who are dying.

I'll put it like this - if we just get to 1,000,000 concurrent sick in the US, roughly 10,000 of them will need ECMO machines to survive. There are only a few hundred of these machines in the US. 200,000 of those million will require hospitalization. Many of those 200,000 will need Oxygen or some form of respirators. There aren't enough respirators to keep those 200,000 alive. That many sick will start knocking out medical professionals. And with an R naught of 2, within days that number would double. At that point, it's over. The young will start to die of unrelated diseases. Expecting mothers will be turned away from the hospital and die of natural childbirth causes. There is a much bigger picture here, and you can't imagine a forest when all you see is a pine tree in front of you.

 

[chitzy]

The economic damage from 3-4 weeks of national quarantine are more like a pause button on a blu-ray. The economic effects of an uncontrolled pandemic are the collapse of society as we know it as tens of thousands die from lack of treatment because medical professionals are all sick and dying.

I think you vastly underestimate the economic damage that closing business for a month would do. Many businesses depend on constant cash flow wouldn't be able to survive such a closure. Restaurants for example. Supply chains would fall apart and upon resuming businesses there would be scarcity all over the place. Formerly loyal customers would disappear. It would be an absolute mess.

 

[HellforLeather]

Not sure if anyone is qualified to answer this here, but what is the absolute fastest that a vaccine could be green lit for public use? I know most estimates put it at around a year or so but that was kinda before the economy started to really tank. I think there will be a lot of interests out there attempting to push this thing through the system.

 

[Sub_Level]

LOL its increasingly obvious Trump has it, whether the White House admits it or not.

Doesn't mean he will die or anything. Has access to the best care and its not exactly the most lethal virus in the first place. But he was totally infected. Lets be real.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

The virus isn't like an immortal being that will keep on spreading without hosts to spread it. Once it runs out of hosts to infect, it will die off. If you can keep the virus from spreading it runs out of food and starves off. It really isn't all the complicated. If you can prevent everyone who catches the disease from infecting others, it will burn out.

Of course if it runs out of hosts to which to spread it will die, but how in the world does temporary social distancing achieve that? We know this thing has a long incubation period, is extremely contagious right from the start, and the average time from catching it to recovery is something like 18 days, during which time the host is extremely contagious to anyone they come into contact with. In many cases, this will be a much longer period.

Unless we can stop social interactions completely on a global scale for probably an entire month at least, which is obviously an absurd proposition, I just don't see how "killing it through starvation" is realistic at all.

 

[nikolino840]

 

[Deleted member 17706]

I think you vastly underestimate the economic damage that closing business for a month would do. Many businesses depend on constant cash flow wouldn't be able to survive such a closure. Restaurants for example. Supply chains would fall apart and upon resuming businesses there would be scarcity all over the place. Formerly loyal customers would disappear. It would be an absolute mess.

Not to mention all of the wage workers who are barely scraping by paycheck to paycheck. Unless some national rent & mortgage payment forgiveness program is implemented, we've got some big problems coming very soon, I suspect.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Norway Is Closed: PM Extends Emergency Coronavirus Measures

UPDATED 24 MARCH: The Norwegian Prime Minister has announced the extension of the country's emergency measures up to and including Easter. The most drastic set of measures ever seen outside of wartime aim to stop

www.lifeinnorway.net

The Norwegian Prime Minister announced the most drastic set of measures ever seen outside of wartime in an attempt to stop the spread of COVID-19.

Millions of Norwegians and foreigners living in or visiting Norway will be impacted by a drastic set of measures announced by Erna Solberg today. Norway is essentially shutting itself down for two weeks, in a bid to stop the rapid spread of the coronavirus and COVID-19 disease.

More than 700 people have been infected in Norway, a number that has drastically increased in the last 48 hours. Although at the time of writing no-one has yet died in Norway from the disease, the country's leaders say this is inevitable.

MLS suspended.

 

[Cybrwzrd]

I think you vastly underestimate the economic damage that closing business for a month would do. Many businesses depend on constant cash flow wouldn't be able to survive such a closure. Restaurants for example. Supply chains would fall apart and upon resuming businesses there would be scarcity all over the place. Formerly loyal customers would disappear. It would be an absolute mess.

It is far better than the other option. You suspend mortgage/rent/loan payments for the duration of the quarantine plus some time to get businesses and employees back on their feet. This is a print money situation, like it or not.

 

[Phase]

Imagine how troops and civilians in war zones are. Many cities with no ability to deal with any of this on top of everything else. I mean the US certainly won't stop the war machine because of this. Hopefully enough good ppl are trying to help the helpless.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Louisiana has 14th presumptive positive test for coronavirus
From CNN's Tina Burnside

The Louisiana Department of Health is reporting an additional case of the novel coronavirus, bringing the number of presumptive positive cases in the state to 14, according to a news release from the agency.
Eleven of the 14 are in Orleans Parish, according to the health department. This new case comes on the heels of Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declaring a public health emergency on Wednesday.
The declaration "addresses efforts to prevent price gouging should that become necessary" and limits international travel for state employees to affected countries.

Louisiana has 14th presumptive positive test for coronavirus

The Louisiana Department of Health is reporting an additional case of the novel coronavirus, bringing the number of presumptive positive cases in the state to 14, according to a news release from the agency.

www.cnn.com

 

[Phase]

Not to mention all of the wage workers who are barely scraping by paycheck to paycheck. Unless some national rent & mortgage payment forgiveness program is implemented, we've got some big problems coming very soon, I suspect.

The government definitely needs to help its citizens and pay for it. Most businesses won't be able to pay for it themselves and if they don't get help many will have to close.

 

[Bullet Club]

 

[Animagic]

Norway Is Closed: PM Extends Emergency Coronavirus Measures

UPDATED 24 MARCH: The Norwegian Prime Minister has announced the extension of the country's emergency measures up to and including Easter. The most drastic set of measures ever seen outside of wartime aim to stop

www.lifeinnorway.net

MLS suspended.

How long until Disneyworld and Disneyland shut their doors? At this rate surely they are more vulnerable than sporting events?

 

[longdi]

I thought China has it under control now?
It took them like 3 months? So it is not that bad...right?

 

[off duty ninja]

This sucks, the two latest cases in Oregon hit a Veteran's home with 151 residents. The two men are over 80, didn't travel or have contact with anyone who had.

I hate thinking about the suffering that people with severe covid-19 reactions are going through. 2-3 weeks of slowly losing your ability to breathe more and more until its just done.

2 New Cases Found At Veterans' Home In Lebanon

The Oregon Health Authority reported four new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state Wednesday, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 19.

www.opb.org

 

[Cybrwzrd]

Of course if it runs out of hosts to which to spread it will die, but how in the world does temporary social distancing achieve that? We know this thing has a long incubation period, is extremely contagious right from the start, and the average time from catching it to recovery is something like 18 days, during which time the host is extremely contagious to anyone they come into contact with. In many cases, this will be a much longer period.

Unless we can stop social interactions completely on a global scale for probably an entire month at least, which is obviously an absurd proposition, I just don't see how "killing it through starvation" is realistic at all.

Once you can get all the sick in treatment, in isolation and stop community spread, the virus dies. If everyone is under quarantine for the duration of at least the incubation period, you can identity the sick and stop them from further spreading it.

 

[sinnergy]

See, this seems like a more or less reasoned response all things considered. Schools should not be closed. People should not be flooding ERs for sniffles, taking services away from those who actualy direly need it. Avoid public places when possible. Work from home when possible. (But not to the extreme that it completely disrupts and destroys everyday life.) Don't dismantle all of society. Use common sense.

I think this will bite us in the ass, as infections keep happening and in the end the numbers are so high that you still need to go into lock down with this scenario and you still cannot handle the load, but if you do it now with a low cases you stop the spreading , and those cases that pop up after the lock down lifts you have the capability to handle ...

But what do I know. Feels like a half baked plan.

China proofed it worked , but what do they know??? They know nothing amirite

 

[Captain Zyrain]

How long until Disneyworld and Disneyland shut their doors? At this rate surely they are more vulnerable than sporting events?

Hopefully sooner rather than later. I would guess the city-wide laws banning "X" number of people from gathering would de facto shut them down.

I think this will bite us in the ass, as infections keep happening and in the end the numbers are so high that you go into lock down with this scenario and you still cannot handle the load, but if you do it now with a low cases you stop the spreading , and those cases that pop up after the lock down lifts you have the capability to handle ...

But what do I know. Feels like a half baked plan.

Yeah, if you locked everyone down now for 3 weeks, you'd burn off the infected people and have a very low chance of it continuing to spread. But you'd have a lot of unprepared people.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

6 Soldiers infected

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Once you can get all the sick in treatment, in isolation and stop community spread, the virus dies. If everyone is under quarantine for the duration of at least the incubation period, you can identity the sick and stop them from further spreading it.

That's all well and good, but if even a single person slips through the cracks and society tries to go back to normal, wouldn't that just start the spread all over again? This is the part I'm trying to wrap my head around. Since the incubation period can be so long and the disease is so incredibly contagious, wouldn't we just be in the same position all over again with people traveling and spreading it all over the world before they show any symptoms?

 

[sinnergy]

Hopefully sooner rather than later. I would guess the city-wide laws banning "X" number of people from gathering would de facto shut them down.



Yeah, if you locked everyone down now for 3 weeks, you'd burn off the infected people and have a very low chance of it continuing to spread. But you'd have a lot of unprepared people.

You can order online ? Super markets stay open.

 

[Cybrwzrd]

That's all well and good, but if even a single person slips through the cracks and society tries to go back to normal, wouldn't that just start the spread all over again? This is the part I'm trying to wrap my head around. Since the incubation period can be so long and the disease is so incredibly contagious, wouldn't we just be in the same position all over again with people traveling and spreading it all over the world before they show any symptoms?

That still gives you more control, you can put out hot spots then. Have to put the fire out first though.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Same story but on CNN

Brazilian president's press secretary tests positive for coronavirus days after visiting Trump at Mar-a-Lago
From CNN's Shasta Darlington and Jonny Hallam

Fabio Wajngarten, the press secretary for Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, tested positive for coronavirus on Thursday, according to two sources who spoke to CNN.
The health of the Brazilian president is being monitored.
Wajngarten was with Bolsonaro on last weekend’s US trip, during which the Brazilian president dined with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Wajngarten posted a picture of himself with Trump on Instagram a few days ago.

Brazilian president's press secretary tests positive for coronavirus days after visiting Trump at Mar-a-Lago

Fabio Wajngarten, the press secretary for Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, tested positive for coronavirus on Thursday, according to two sources who spoke to CNN.

www.cnn.com

 

[off duty ninja]

6 Soldiers infected

This sucks, but our military is hopefully in a better position to deal with quarantine and such then the general populace. They can shut down all the base entrances and such as well. Of course, they don't say WHERE these soldiers are which would be good info.

 

[Sakura]

Yeah, I understand that's the argument, but is there anything out there explaining the mechanism for why that might be true?

It doesn't seem to make sense that the virus can spread from a single source to hundreds of thousands across the globe, yet somehow be controlled by slowing its growth through temporary social distancing. Permanent social distancing, I would understand, but that would be devastating on society.

It's not that hard to understand.
You close off the country. People can't travel between cities or certain areas. Shops are closed. People are in their homes. Etc.
The spread of the virus will slow down, obviously. At some point, you will say, OK, this city, or this area of the city, or whatever other subdivision you have, no longer has any infected people. The lockdown for that place is lifted, the people go back to work. Slowly the number of people back to work will increase, and the number of places under quarantine will decrease. You do extremely rigorous testing and contact tracing, and you keep any further spread in check.
If there is nobody sick, then there is nobody to spread the disease.

Now, the best approach, is to be taking it seriously from day 1. Extremely good surveillance. Contact tracing. Checking who is coming in and out of the country. That way you can keep it to a manageable number of cases, without ever having to lockdown anywhere. If a cluster does appear, say you have a superspreader who managed to infect 100 people at some location, and those people are starting to infect others, you immediately lock down that area. That way the rest of the country is still functioning.

Locking down the entire country, or half of it, or whatever, is a last step solution. It means you already fucked up. The damage to the economy is real, as I am sure you understand. But it is something that has to be done if you have let the situation get out of control.

 

[sinnergy]

That's all well and good, but if even a single person slips through the cracks and society tries to go back to normal, wouldn't that just start the spread all over again? This is the part I'm trying to wrap my head around. Since the incubation period can be so long and the disease is so incredibly contagious, wouldn't we just be in the same position all over again with people traveling and spreading it all over the world before they show any symptoms?

But less, so it’s manageable, I think the UK and the Dutch are making a expensive mistake.