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Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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Lanrutcon

Lanrutcon

Member
South Africa update: our President was supposed to address the nation around Corona...4 hours ago. Kept delaying and delaying, and now he doesn't want to come out until the autocue machine is tested again.

Delay tactics of a 13 year old.

"I'm the leader of a country but I'm delaying a live address about an epidemic because I can't read off cards".

Oh, and student at the biggest university in the country in the biggest city in the country tested positive. She went to class for 2 days. The panic buying has begun.
 
betrayal

betrayal

Banned
Stitch said:
are they licking doorknobs in italy or what's going on over there?
Click to expand...

The number of new cases published every day does not show the current case numbers, but is always a look into the past from one or two weeks ago. For this reason, the results of a lockdown, for example, are not reflected for one or two weeks. Now it will probably be the case that the numbers may rise again in the next few days, but then they will be more or less constant and then slowly fall.
 
betrayal

betrayal

Banned
oatmeal said:
Deaths, not cases. Case number doesn’t mean as much as deaths.
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It is not possible to use the death toll to determine the death rate of the virus. It is now clear that in Lombardy the health care system is partly at the limit and there is not enough ICU for everyone, especially since it has infected many old people in the north. The average age of the dead is probably somewhere between 70 and 80 years.
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
12Goblins said:
have u guys seen this?


most pathetic shit i've ever seen. there is more than enough for everyone if people stop acting like chickens with their heads cut off
Click to expand...


I swear to god a good portion of the country is only willing to shop at Costco or Sam's Club or something. It's ridiculous.

I've been wanting to go buy some steaks for a week now, but the madness has kept me away. Meanwhile the local supermarkets are pretty much normal with just shortages of toilet paper.
 
Smiles and Cries

Smiles and Cries

Member
Captain Zyrain said:
I still don't feel like those Iran numbers can be real, but who knows maybe they're China 2.0.
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they are the only official ones we have so it is good enough for me not gonna fuss at those guys. My curiousity is more to how they recover so fast.

People are going to doubt China a lot as trends continue to form patterns, so Iran and China will stick out a bit weird but they could be telling the truth.
 
E-Cat

E-Cat

Member
oatmeal said:
Now post the daily death rate. Case numbers don’t mean as much as that.
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For people who are going to die of this, it often takes two weeks between being infected and dying so there's always going to be a significant lag in the numbers. If that is true, look for a sharp increase in the number of deaths in the coming days.
 
O

oatmeal

Banned
E-Cat said:
For people who are going to die of this, it often takes two weeks between being infected and dying so there's always going to be a significant lag in the numbers. If that is true, look for a sharp increase in the number of deaths in the coming days.
Click to expand...
Yeah it’s hard to say. But case numbers don’t mean a lot in the end if the deaths don’t follow. Since the vast majority of people have mild symptoms.
 
Chaplain

Chaplain

Member
"As the coronavirus continues to impact society on a number of fronts, KARE 11's Kent Erdahl sits down with Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the U of M. Osterholm has been warning of pandemics like the Coronavirus for years, and predicted its recent spread and strain on the healthcare system. In this extended conversation, Erdahl and Osterholm discuss how the virus spreads, the current public health measures being used to tackle it and how to combat fear surrounding it with useful information." (3/12/20)

 
E-Cat

E-Cat

Member
oatmeal said:
Yeah it’s hard to say. But case numbers don’t mean a lot in the end if the deaths don’t follow. Since the vast majority of people have mild symptoms.
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I would expect the case vs death ratio in first world countries to correlate quite closely for the most part, except for when health care system capacity is overwhelmed (e.g., Lombardy).
 
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E-Cat

E-Cat

Member
E-Cat said:
That is a good point, though there may be more corona deaths falsely attributed to the common flu. If we assume that the current official figure is correct, that works out to about a 2% death rate.
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Actually, I was talking out of my ass here.

Mortality rate = number of deaths / number of closed cases (both deaths and recoverings).

For USA, the current mortality rate = 62 / (62 + 56) = 52%. Of course, the real mortality rate will be much lower. But one can not know the exact value until the epidemic is over.

The reason why there are so few deaths so far in the US is that there are so few closed cases, period. The death toll will soon get a lot higher, unfortunately.
 
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Lanrutcon

Lanrutcon

Member
South Africa update: President just addressed the nation. State of emergency declared, they expect things are going to get a lot worse in the coming weeks. Mass gathering prohibited, public holiday celebrations cancelled, schools closed for a month, travel visas canceled for foreigners coming from high risk areas, air travel to high risk areas prohibited, country is closing most of its ports of entry, non-essential governmental travel prohibited, businesses urged to take precautionary measures now before things escalate.
 
Jtibh

Jtibh

Banned
For all canadian gym members.
Just got this today
RAjm780.png
 
vpance

vpance

Member
12Goblins said:
have u guys seen this?


most pathetic shit i've ever seen. there is more than enough for everyone if people stop acting like chickens with their heads cut off. everyone rushing to congregate during a highly infectious disease outbreak also hurts my fucking head
Click to expand...


It's pointless trying to shape mob behavior already in fear mode.

The ones hurt the most are those that don't have more than a week's worth of food stored so they're forced to line up. And that just piles on top with the LTTP preppers and horders.
 
poppabk

poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Birdo said:
I went into town today and it's like nothing is wrong.

Shelves full, people going about their daily business.

I'm going to assume it's city people who are doing all the crazy shit. Because out here in raural England, it's just another day.
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Rural Virginia here and the YMCA gym was busy this morning, my daughter is on her way to a birthday party. We are currently pre Mad Max 1 levels, there is some mild panic buying, schools are closed for two weeks, but life is going in pretty much as usual. I expect us to hit roving gang Mad Max 1 levels by the end of next week and Mad Max 2 armored fortresses by the end of March. Thunderdome we will hopefully skip and head straight to crow people and the powerful keeping harems of women to breed Corona resistant babies.
 
Jtibh

Jtibh

Banned
N
Gashtronomy said:
A thought I had today:

While staring, bemused, at the rows and rows of empty shelves of Shampoo, Conditioner, Shower gel and deodorant, I began to realise that most people don't shower or bathe as much as they should. If they did, we wouldn't be seeing a shortage. This isn't panic buying, this is the ditry, scrotty fucking smelly cunts finally buying some fucking soap.

It's amazing how few people have stunk of shit, piss and BO since this virus thing started.
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No toilet paper. What choice do they have other then washing ass and pussy 5 times a day
 
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Birdo

Birdo

Banned
poppabk said:
Rural Virginia here and the YMCA gym was busy this morning, my daughter is on her way to a birthday party. We are currently pre Mad Max 1 levels, there is some mild panic buying, schools are closed for two weeks, but life is going in pretty much as usual. I expect us to hit roving gang Mad Max 1 levels by the end of next week and Mad Max 2 armored fortresses by the end of March. Thunderdome we will hopefully skip and head straight to crow people and the powerful keeping harems of women to breed Corona resistant babies.
Click to expand...

I appreciate the Mad Max scale. It helped put it into perspective.

I may start building a buggy covered in spikes. Just to be ready.
 
GHG

GHG

Gold Member
Jtibh said:
For all canadian gym members.
Just got this today
RAjm780.png
Click to expand...

At least it looks like they are remaining open. They are all shut here including the one in my apartment complex. Gym closed, pool closed, beach closed for at least the next 2 weeks. It's a joke.
 
TwoDurans

TwoDurans

"Never said I wasn't a hypocrite."
GHG said:
At least it looks like they are remaining open. They are all shut here including the one in my apartment complex. Gym closed, pool closed, beach closed for at least the next 2 weeks. It's a joke.
Click to expand...

Do you want to be in a place where someone uses a sweaty towel to wipe off a bench before you use it? White cotton towels aren't anti-bacterial, and I've heard far too many gym-bros say shit like "I don't feel, well but I'm going to sweat it out" in the past. Public gyms, pools, any place where people can't be trusted to not put themselves above others should be shut down for the greater good.



I've cancelled my membership to 24h and am converting to a home gym guy.
 
Jtibh

Jtibh

Banned
GHG said:
At least it looks like they are remaining open. They are all shut here including the one in my apartment complex. Gym closed, pool closed, beach closed for at least the next 2 weeks. It's a joke.
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I am expecting them to shut down soon but i am very pleased with their approach.
Instead of going into full meltdown mode they think rational.
 
MetalAlien

MetalAlien

Banned
12Goblins said:
have u guys seen this?


most pathetic shit i've ever seen. there is more than enough for everyone if people stop acting like chickens with their heads cut off. everyone rushing to congregate during a highly infectious disease outbreak also hurts my fucking head
Click to expand...

Drive past it everyday.
 
Tiamat2san

Tiamat2san

Member
So my son who works in an elderly hospital has been in contact with a new patient who has tested positive a few hours later.
Problem is that they were not aware of the fact she has been tested before someone tell them the result.
Nice job.
 
cryptoadam

cryptoadam

Banned
holygeesus said:
Has anyone got any charts that show how the numbers have changed over time, on a country by country basis?

I say this because, while I appreciate exponential growth, the USA and UK are receiving a ton of grief for their tactics, but the infection rate per million people is among the lowest of any country. It seems to me that you cant really judge the merits of either without comparing them to the relevant stages of progression in other countries.

Why are people so convinced that Johnson and Trump are wrong? I'm no fan of either, for the record, but this doesn't seem like the best time to judge actions based on political partisanship.
Click to expand...

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 130,949,997 Cases and 2,852,987 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info

Good site, you can click on any country and get breakdowns.
 
cryptoadam

cryptoadam

Banned
oatmeal said:
Now post the daily death rate. Case numbers don’t mean as much as that.
Click to expand...

With all the variance in testing from country to country, and all people that aren't tested, deaths is probably a better number to look at.

I also think that as your cases go higher you will probably see higher case increases following that because there will be more testing, more people found with it. Since the worse it gets the more testing is ramped up, leading to more cases. Everywhere gong into lock down now and taking this more seriously you are going to see bigger spikes in case numbers.

And really the big concern is how many go to the hospital and how many die. A chinese study showed that about 4% that end up in hospital die, so for rough estimation multiply your death rate by that and it might give you sorta of rough figure of how many people were in the hospital. Also according to the study 26% were in ICU so again you can do some math to try and figure out how many were in ICU. (of course all rough estimates).
 
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