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May 7th | UK General Election 2015 OT - Please go vote!

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Last time there was a Labour government they got three terms. The time before that the Tories had three terms. So it is possible the Tories get one more term after this, but I think it is going overboard to be quite so dramatic about it - day after emotions notwithstanding.

Four. 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992.
 

EliCash

Member
Actually still reading the argument online that those who voted SNP allowed the Tories in. Was a useless argument from Labour before the election and it's even more useless now. Even if Labour retained all their seats in Scotland it would still be a Tory majority. Catastrophic failure on the parts of Labour and Lib Dems. Not sure why I'm almost surprised at how useless they are and how right wing the UK is.
 

Maledict

Member
Silver isn't a pollster, though.

Presumably he was weighing a variety of UK polls, and if the polls were uniformly bad, then it's not surprising that his prediction was off.

I haven't personally read any of Silver's stuff on the parliamentary election, but by now I'm pretty familiar with his approach.

Silver failed utterly last time as well.

It's less that pollsters are bad, but that our system is a lot more complicated than just a two party divide despite appearances. National swings don't count for anything compared to what happens in the marginals, and the marginals are often decided by the presence (or lack of) third party candidates who might draw votes from the major parties.

It's the "only 10 states matter" effect from USA presidential elections compound by the fact every seat has at least one Ross Perot standing in it.
 
Agreed, whoever did that was fucking dumb.

You clearly forgot about this kind of shit :-

no-to-av-soldier.jpg


no-to-av1.jpeg

The fear of god was put into people about AV (it didn't help that the suggested voting reform was half arsed and little better than FPTP either)

Last time there was a Labour government they got three terms. The time before that the Tories had three terms. So it is possible the Tories get one more term after this, but I think it is going overboard to be quite so dramatic about it - day after emotions notwithstanding.

Right at this moment I can't think of a single Labour MP that could be considered as "electable". Actually that isn't fair I am struggling to think of any Labour MP at all outside of Harmen, Cooper, Balls and Ed I can't think of any other "notable" Labour MP that has any kind of clout. Now that Balls has gone, Harmen is resigning, Ed is dead and Cooper has even less chance of winning an Election than Ed did.

I honestly think Labour are going to be out of power for at least another decade. I would love to have some optimism here but can anyway truly say that the Labour party even looks electable from an "appearance" point of view.
 

shootfast

Member
Just so people are clear AV wouldn't in anyway prevent this.

It's a good voting system but it doesn't exactly mean proportionate representation.

In Australia we have compulsory preferential (number every box) in Australia and most seats still tend to congregate around the major parties, even though some minor parties do quite well.

We do have compulsory voting so that also produces such an outcome but I still find it unlikely that switching to AV would suddenly make your electoral system proportiante.

Here is our previous Australian election for reference.

This is where the senate comes in with proportional representation. So there is relationship between an area and the mp in the house of reps whilst also allowing smaller parties get representation in the senate. Also we did have a minority government not so long ago, so AV can still allow for that.
 

Hasney

Member
You clearly forgot about this kind of shit :-



The fear of god was put into people about AV (it didn't help that the suggested voting reform was half arsed and little better than FPTP either)

Exactly. I voted No to AV because it was utter bollocks and would barely change anything, but that no campaign almost swayed me because it angered me so much.

AV would not have changed anything meaningful. A few seats would be different, most safe seats would be as they were. I agree that the voting system needs to change, but AV was the wrong answer.
 

Jezbollah

Member
Hmm. The electoral system does need updating, but there are plenty more bigger reasons why this result has come about.

I've said it for a long time - this Labour party were (and I'm putting it very kindly) poor opposition. Even without the SNP, they should have got 50 more seats than they did. They only took 37 of the 150 marginal seats (compared to 82 from the Tories).

The general public evidently didnt think he was the right man for the job. There is no electoral system that can fix that if that's what the public think.

Hopefully now Labour can regroup and re-invent themselves to be the proper opposition that our democracy needs - because with a majority (albeit small) someone needs to keep the Tories honest.
 

PJV3

Member
Get the referendum out of the way, UKIP voters return to the tories pushing it to the right in time for the leadership election.

I think/hope they will struggle at that point as they will be running out of steam and issues to focus on.

Benefits will be clobbered.
Europe will have been dealt with.
Nothing really left to privatise.

Immigration will be the only thing left and even that could be gone if we leave the EU.
 

Go_Ly_Dow

Member
People get so wrapped up in the lifestyle of family and work they devote no energy to exploring the cause and effect of so many agenda's. So they sit back and let the right wing media feed them bullshit as it's easier than exploring a topic with their own intuition.

This country is breeding ground for close minded arrogance. Racists, homophobics and blame seekers. You may now all reap what you have sown.
 

iceatcs

Junior Member
It seem that many people went through the last five years have fucked up their life by government.
I'm curious who are they, Public sector people?

To me, I'm disabled long-term unemployed that actually got better off in last 5 years. I will see what the benefit will change this time (PIP and other thing) and see if it is worth back to work.
 

hidys

Member
This is where the senate comes in with proportional representation. So there is relationship between an area and the mp in the house of reps whilst also allowing smaller parties get representation in the senate. Also we did have a minority government not so long ago, so AV can still allow for that.

Well yes. But many here seem to think the AV without proportionate representation would create a more representative result on its own.

It would to some small extent, but on the whole it probably wouldn't.
 
It's okay, they'll stick to their pledges and manifesto promises this time.

No question. No doubt at all.

Cameron's already been bleating about One Nation Toryism and 'Christian' values.

He did this last time. Play to the village, of the stone church and the thatched roofs, misty mornings and Major spunking over nuns (ahem).

Then proceed to make cuts that disproportionately hurt the poor. Righto, Jesus Cameron.
 

AGoodODST

Member
It should be illegal to have final exams the day after a General Election. Glad that's over.

Seems I missed some excitment though. Miliband, Clegg and Farage gone, Balls lost his seat.

Cameron promising an EU referendum and forming a majority. You can bet your butts that there will be a Scottish indyref clause in the SNP manifesto next year then. I imagine they will word it around the result of the EU one.
 

Maledict

Member
For real. This feels like 2004 US Presidential election levels of "What the hell was this electorate thinking?"

I don't think folks active on the internet actually understand what the current level of dialogue around the economy and the deficit is.

In one respect, this election was over the minute the economy started to turn around and after Labour made the decision not to challenge the fallacy that the recession was their fault because they had spent too much money. It is utterly, factually incorrect and yet even in this thread you see it repeated a lot - now imagine you don't read online stuff, and every newspaper in the land is telling you the same thing, along with every TV programme.

It doesn't surprise me that people have bought into the idea that labour spent too much and we need cuts to balance the books - it's an easy, simple message, and it's been preached from the hilltop for 5 years now.
 

twobear

sputum-flecked apoplexy
I don't think folks active on the internet actually understand what the current level of dialogue around the economy and the deficit is.

In one respect, this election was over the minute the economy started to turn around and after Labour made the decision not to challenge the fallacy that the recession was their fault because they had spent too much money. It is utterly, factually incorrect and yet even in this thread you see it repeated a lot - now imagine you don't read online stuff, and every newspaper in the land is telling you the same thing, along with every TV programme.

It doesn't surprise me that people have bought into the idea that labour spent too much and we need cuts to balance the books - it's an easy, simple message, and it's been preached from the hilltop for 5 years now.

100% this
 
Cameron's already been bleating about One Nation Toryism and 'Christian' values.

He did this last time. Play to the village, of the stone church and the thatched roofs, misty mornings and Major spunking over nuns (ahem).

Then proceed to make cuts that disproportionately hurt the poor. Righto, Jesus Cameron.

Conservatives citing Jesus or Christian values seems to be some kind of go-to message around the globe. I swear there must be a handbook somewhere where they are all told to play this card.

Cunts. Using people's religion to try and manipulate them.
 

Go_Ly_Dow

Member
I don't think folks active on the internet actually understand what the current level of dialogue around the economy and the deficit is.

In one respect, this election was over the minute the economy started to turn around and after Labour made the decision not to challenge the fallacy that the recession was their fault because they had spent too much money. It is utterly, factually incorrect and yet even in this thread you see it repeated a lot - now imagine you don't read online stuff, and every newspaper in the land is telling you the same thing, along with every TV programme.

It doesn't surprise me that people have bought into the idea that labour spent too much and we need cuts to balance the books - it's an easy, simple message, and it's been preached from the hilltop for 5 years now.

.
 

IpKaiFung

Member
I have a feeling that he will go back on the EU referendum pledge. The uncertainty around it will be something big business will not desire for up to two years.
 

system11

Member
Actually still reading the argument online that those who voted SNP allowed the Tories in. Was a useless argument from Labour before the election and it's even more useless now. Even if Labour retained all their seats in Scotland it would still be a Tory majority. Catastrophic failure on the parts of Labour and Lib Dems. Not sure why I'm almost surprised at how useless they are and how right wing the UK is.

If you think the country is predominately right wing you really need to go and read about actual right wing and left wing governments. Both parties have gradually been moving closer to the middle line for years. That's how Blair got elected if you recall, I actually voted for him at the time.

I'd expect a third term is going to depend entirely on the economy - if jobs are up and other areas of the country which are less well off see investment and job creation I'd expect to see a third term, easily. If the recovery comes unstuck for any reason at all, then rightly or wrongly I expect they'll be punished for it at the polls in 2020. I think they might even stick with Cameron depending on how EU relations go, I expect the vote to come out in favour of staying.
 
he has a very right wing back bench, who he now needs a lot more than last term, if he even hinted about not doing a referendum, his party would implode, and there would almost certainly be a leadership challenge

He'll be gone soon enough anyway, ensuring that any in/out referendum is pushed much further down the road or just mothballed seems like it would be something he'd want to do.

After all, as much as of a cunt as he might be, I'm sure he wouldn't want his legacy as PM to be one of where Scotland eventually voted for independence and where we left the biggest free market on the planet.
 
Live coverage of the egg and spoon race championship, coming to you live.

I only want them to produce content that their position of not being beholden to advertisers allows them to produce or allows then to produce much better than commercial stations. They should let commercial broadcasters do their thing and then fill in the gaps that get ignored because they're no financially viable. IMO the election coverage would fall under this banner. Buying to rights to show football doesn't. Spend that same money that you spent on acquiring the rights to show the FA Cup or whatever and produce a show no one else will make. Let ITV show the FA cup.

For real. This feels like 2004 US Presidential election levels of "What the hell was this electorate thinking?"

I dont doubt thats really how you " feel", I'm laughing at how silly it is.
 

-Plasma Reus-

Service guarantees member status
I don't think anyone but voters is to blame. People like to blame parties but voters are the problem.
Looking forward to people complaining about Tory benefit cuts and employee rights decimation and healthcare dismantling.
 
Another five years of Tory shite. Fantastic.

Worse Tory shite. Without the LibDems, they can get on with removing us from the Bill of Human Rights (and replacing it with a 'British Bill of RIghts that I presume Cameron and Osborne will scribble on the back of a napkin while drunk on celebratory champagne).

Theresa May has already mentioned bringing back the snoopers charter.

Well done UK, you've just elected an utterly despicable bunch of cunts into parliament.
 

system11

Member
What a damning indictment against this horrible system.

No disagreement there. I think they should abolish the concept of MPs based on boundaries and just have a set number of MP seats which get allocated per party based on total vote counts, and leave the parties to fill the seats with the relevant people from their ranks based on bartering with potential coalition partners.
 

jonno394

Member
People no longer caring about their social responsibility for others, who are less able or disabled, is what this election is about.

The the real message coming from this.

Yes, people care about what affects them personally, and it's completely understandable. Unless you have experienced it or do not know people affected by all this then it is very easy to fall in to the trap of disassociation.
 

Hasney

Member
No disagreement there. I think they should abolish the concept of MPs based on boundaries and just have a set number of MP seats which get allocated per party based on total vote counts, and leave the parties to fill the seats with the relevant people from their ranks based on bartering with potential coalition partners.

Then how do I vote for someone that represents my local issues?
 

SmokyDave

Member
People no longer caring about their social responsibility for others, who are less able or disabled, is what this election is about.

The the real message coming from this.
I think that's only the 'real' message if that's the message you're determined to hear (or create). Before I read this thread I had no idea that this election revolved entirely around the disabled.
 

Crispy75

Member
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If you voted no in 2011's AV referendum, this is your fault.

AV wouldn't have done anything for proportionality. In fact, given that a majority of UKIP voters would have listed conservative as their 2nd preference, it would have resulted in an even larger Tory majority. AV is designed to prevent a split vote.

ie. with these results

Red party: 40%
Blue party 1: 30%
Blue party 2: 30%

The red party wins in FPTP, even though there's very little difference between the two blue parties. With AV, the blue party voters can name each other as their alternative vote, thus ensuring a 60% result for at least one of the blue parties.

EDIT: Once all the votes are in, an AV model should be easy to make, using Ashcroft's AV poll data: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/12/ashcroft-national-poll-con-30-lab-31-lib-dem-8-ukip-19-green-5/
 
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