I think that having the SNP involved in government in any form would be a nightmare, but I also think that the SNP's position is a lot weaker than the Tories are trying to portray. What are the SNP going to do if Ed tells them that, no, you're not going to have any input into our policies, so back me or sack me? Are they really going to bring down a Labour government, or vote against left leaning Labour policies? As long as the SNP aren't actively voting against a Labour government, Ed should be able to secure a majority in the commons.
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May 7th | UK General Election 2015 OT - Please go vote!
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I think that having the SNP involved in government in any form would be a nightmare, but I also think that the SNP's position is a lot weaker than the Tories are trying to portray. What are the SNP going to do if Ed tells them that, no, you're not going to have any input into our policies, so back me or sack me? Are they really going to bring down a Labour government, or vote against left leaning Labour policies? As long as the SNP aren't actively voting against a Labour government, Ed should be able to secure a majority in the commons.
Caleranatior
Neo Member
Yup. SNP have made it very clear they do not want to see the Tories in government, which could easily happen if they were to vote down Labour and cause another election. Just scare tactics that the Tory campaign has moved on to now that trying to discredit Miliband has backfired on them.
CyclopsRock
Member
Well the SNP have also said the, for ex, Trident would be a red line for propping up a Labour government. They can't both - refusing to allow a Tory gov + demanding the scrapping of Trident - to be true unless Labour capitulate, in which case I'd argue that they do have quite a lot of power.
Either way, Trident is staying.
Labour and Tories have both said they want it.
So if SNP voted Labour down then we'd have a new election and probably the Tories would get it and we'd still have Trident and SNP would have nothing.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
That's a small part of the difference, but it's not enough to account for all of it. Youth, education, and urbanism are stronger factors. If you're young, went to university, and live in a city, you're much more likely to identify as British and that patterns holds true even in Scotland.
Miles Quaritch
Member
The SNP certainly don't have the bargaining power that the tory rags would like to have us believe, though I'm sure they'll get something out of it.
I thought Trident to be a stumbling block was just if it was to be a formal coalition. If they agreed to support Labour on a vote by vote basis Trident obviously wouldn't be an issue as any vote in favour of it would likely have Tory support as well.
Both sides have pretty much ruled out a formal coalition already anyway so a per vote basis is the only way the SNP could prop up Labour.
QuicheFontaine
Member
I liked "charge ur phone".
Thornton Reed
Member
the comments on that tweet are pure gold 
I don't see what the confusion is regarding the SNP having huge amounts of power over a minority Labour government.
I mean the Lib Dems have been ruling the country and dominating the minority tory government for the last 5 years, right?
Well either that or since the strategy of slagging off Milliband as a goofy looking incompetent untrustworthy weirdo seems to have backfired when it turns out he's as normal as the next politician (low bar there) the tories and the tory press need to find something - anything - else to demonise to panic the voters into voting for them to prevent the apocalypse.
I mean the Lib Dems have been ruling the country and dominating the minority tory government for the last 5 years, right?
Well either that or since the strategy of slagging off Milliband as a goofy looking incompetent untrustworthy weirdo seems to have backfired when it turns out he's as normal as the next politician (low bar there) the tories and the tory press need to find something - anything - else to demonise to panic the voters into voting for them to prevent the apocalypse.
CyclopsRock
Member
The suggestion put forward here is that the SNP wouldn't "vote down" a Labour government. My point is simply that they either could do, or would otherwise be reneging on one of their promises.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Hasn't Cameron already negated that through the 5 years minimum term through the Fixed parliament act (which was it's entire reason for existence in the first place) he used to lock himself as Prime minister in early on in the coalition. (it also means they're stuck together for good or ill, so it's kind of a double edged sword).
QuicheFontaine
Member
Eh? The fixed parliament act doesn't mean the Lib Dems can't call a vote of no confidence.
But why would they?
If Labour don't get in the Tories will and Trident will still be renewed
Sturgeon is a bit more nuanced than that on Trident. Essentially it would be stumbling block for a coalition, but on a vote for vote basis they'd just vote against it. The SNP will not torpedo (see what I did there) a Labour government. There's nothing in for them, they essentially get to take credit for all the good things, and by offering amendment which Labour will vote down deflect the bad stuff on to Labour. Their strategy as explained to me by a Scottish political journalist will be to cement their newly found support from ex-labour voters in central belt of Scotland by essentially saying "see even with us pushing them leftwards, Labour just doesn't get it anymore."
Maybe it already got posted and I missed it but Populus have released an analysis of how likely they judge various outcomes to be:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f98ed212-ea49-11e4-96ec-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YFrnnGjr
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f98ed212-ea49-11e4-96ec-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YFrnnGjr
FlammableD
Banned
I am tentatively excited
Politics will take a tiny shift left, there will still be no money and everyone will dodge and dispute the magic mansion tax because the only real way to figure out what a house is worth is to sell it.
We'll all also get to see that the 50p tax rate earns nothing but they will stick with it pointlessly as it's all they have gone about for the past 5 years.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Maybe it already got posted and I missed it but Populus have released an analysis of how likely they judge various outcomes to be:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f98ed212-ea49-11e4-96ec-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YFrnnGjr
I guess that explains the ever increasing desperation from the Tories.
Heard a bit of Miliband's Radio 1 interview earlier. Fairly uneventful - Ed giving politician answers but the ripostes to this were snark from the presenter and the audience just repeating their questions/beliefs so it was easy for him to wriggle out of difficulty. Oddest part by far was an audience member saying he couldn't vote for Miliband because he 'betrayed his brother and has no loyalty'.
I still think that if Sinn Fein were to ever take their seats solely to bring down a Tory govt in a vote of confidence it would be the funniest thing ever (the thought arise when I saw this Graun article that 286 seats could have Tories in power)
I still think that if Sinn Fein were to ever take their seats solely to bring down a Tory govt in a vote of confidence it would be the funniest thing ever (the thought arise when I saw this Graun article that 286 seats could have Tories in power)
In 2010 I'd have voted Lib Dem, but I was only 16 so yeah. This time around, I'm still leaning Lib Dem but in my constituency the Tories have a 55% lead according to YouGov, UKIP coming in second at 26% and Labour at 22%. IIRC my area (Fareham) has been Conservative in every election it's ever had. If I vote Lib Dem it'll be completely wasted, so really my only choices are UKIP (fucking lol) and Labour.
I've been leaning towards Labour more and more throughout the campaigns, given that I'd rather my vote was based on practicality rather than principle. I honestly find it shocking UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems.
I've been leaning towards Labour more and more throughout the campaigns, given that I'd rather my vote was based on practicality rather than principle. I honestly find it shocking UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems.
Basically, people don't trust the Lib Dems. Because the Conservatives have been calling all the shots, the Lib Dems are being accused of selling out basically. Despite the fact that, if anything, they've probably stopped the Tories being even more ruthless with the poor than they have been.
I voted Lib Dem while Charles Kennedy was leader, but stopped once Clegg came in. A lot of what he was saying just sounded like pie in the sky to me, and with Blair gone it was safe for me to vote Labour.
I'll say this for yougov their polling has been very consistant. This probably means they are happy with their weightings etc.
Clegg, presumably on the grounds that he's expecting to lose Sheffield Hallam and therefore can promise whatever the fuck he wants again, has ruled out a coalition with the SNP and said if Labour have fewer seats that would cause them to lack legitimacy.
Basically, we're not getting another coalition.
Basically, we're not getting another coalition.
CrankyKong
Member
Im not UK-ish, so could someone explain to me why its become impossible for one of the 2 major parties to win a majority?
the tories are going to win that seat regardless, so i don't think there's much value in tactical voting.
if you like the lib dems they could do with all the votes they get nationally, makes it easier to rebuild. more practical imo than hoping for a unprecedented last minute labour swing in an election notably gridlocked atm.
Jezbollah
Member
UKIP + the SNP, pretty much. UKIP will take votes away primarily from the Tories that will see them lose seats, and the SNP will pretty much wipe out Labour in Scotland (SNP got 6 MPs in 2010, they could have 40+ this time around - this means at least 34 seats not won by Labour). I think this is a simple potential reason from a simpleton like me, but I'm sure that the very knowledgeable (KMag, Crab etc) would provide a much better answer
PJV3
Member
Clegg is such a fucking prick.
The attitude of the three main parties towards the SNP is ridiculous.
This is a signal to basically any left leaning lib dem voter to just vote Labour. I hope the LDs are decimated.
Kotetsu534
Member
You can see why in the polling results quoted directly above your post. The share of the vote secured by Labour and the Tories has been continually on the decline over the past ~50 years, drifting away to various parties over that time (many since merged or discontinued). It's very difficult to secure an overall majority on 33%-35% of the vote, and albeit Labour managed it in 2005, this time they have to deal with the extremely concentrated support of the SNP. And this is an important point - concentrated support is vital in our First-Past-The-Post system - you need a plurality of the votes in a given area to get any representation at all. This is why UKIP will likely get well under 10 MPs despite likely breaking 10% of the vote, while the SNP will get 40+ (maybe 50+) seats despite a national share of under 4%. The Greens will probably beat the SNP in the popular vote and get only 1 seat to show for it. The Lib Dems, even despite dropping up to half their share of the vote, will cling on to ~25 seats thanks to strong local presence.
There's also the issue that our constituency boundaries were drawn up based on demographic analysis from 2000, as the proposed reforms, widely thought to be favourable to the Tories, fell through (the Lib Dems promised to vote them through, then backed out). There's a good explanation of why delaying the updating of the electoral boundaries is favourable to Labour below (centres on the population of the Conservative south-east swelling while northern areas' populations, dominated by Labour, by and large, decline).
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/electoral-bias/
anonymous_abc
Member
Maybe it already got posted and I missed it but Populus have released an analysis of how likely they judge various outcomes to be:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f98ed212-ea49-11e4-96ec-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YFrnnGjr
Sounds plausible to me.
JonathanEx
Member
So here's a minor insight from a Tory event this week. Much obvious but still amusing... Autocue.
Obviously everyone uses it, you can't learn a speech a day. So Cam had three set up, massive screens, which is what really means he looks to the sides of the audience during speeches, just another screen.
But the funny thing is that they have instructions telling him to look at his paper at specific bits.
Oh and Hague didn't use them, screens just went off for his speech apparently.
Obviously everyone uses it, you can't learn a speech a day. So Cam had three set up, massive screens, which is what really means he looks to the sides of the audience during speeches, just another screen.
But the funny thing is that they have instructions telling him to look at his paper at specific bits.
Oh and Hague didn't use them, screens just went off for his speech apparently.
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
I don't know a single person who has ever had a positive opinion of Nick Clegg. He comes across as a slimy, smarmy, Asylum-produced mockbuster version of Tony Blair. That and I don't think that a lot of people have forgotten the bitching, infighting and blatant ageism that propelled him into Lib Dem leadership.
Under his leadership, the Lib Dems have joined the ranks of the complete and utter failures to carry the "Liberal" flag in UK politics, and seeing them swept into the trashcan of UK political history for selling out their principles for a seat at the table will be a sight to behold.
I'm sure that Michael Moore, Danny Alexander, et al will make fantastic list MSPs from 2016.
As for the SNP bashing: it's to be expected, and it benefits the SNP more than anything else. That and with all three main parties harping on about those uppity jocks, I like to think that your average English voter is thinking "you're not competing with the SNP here, motherfucker, what will you do for our constituency and why should I vote for you?"
Principate
Saint Titanfall
It means they need, 2/3rds. to do it, which is much harder to obtain,
PJV3
Member
He's just useless.
Ed Miliband and also the SNP are in favour of voting reform, he could achieve something worthwhile if he wanted to. He doesn't have to cave in to the Scottish menace to achieve it as they would also be a junior partner.
He loves playing a good hand badly.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Really? Even though PR would give them both (especially the SNP) far fewer seats?
PJV3
Member
Ed campaigned for a yes vote over AV, saying this isn't about Clegg.
SNP are for STV, Clegg could get something if he actually tried this time.
But he's useless.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Well, he was right there: it's never about Clegg
Audioboxer
Member
The more scare tactics, newspaper headlines and shite I read daily brings back bad memories of the nonsense surrounding the independence vote.
Politics in the UK are so disgusting. Especially the media. Horrible to think how many voters in the UK are simply puppets.
Politics in the UK are so disgusting. Especially the media. Horrible to think how many voters in the UK are simply puppets.
Scottish parliament already uses a proportional system. The number of seats we have in Westminster isn't that big a deal since we have a dissolved parliament. It'd be nice to fix your system for you though
paradox121
Member
Just got my postal vote through. First time I've been old enough to vote, and nothing inspired me more than voting for literally anyone other than UKIP. I have to walk past one of their pop-up shops where I live every day before work.
I have to hand it to them, if nothing else they're definitely gonna bump up the turnout rate.
I have to hand it to them, if nothing else they're definitely gonna bump up the turnout rate.
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