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Microsoft cooking 360 figures? *Rumors*
- Thread starter Lagaff
- Start date
KeithFranklin
Banned
I dont believe MS cares much about the Wii.
I believe that they are clearing the pipeline of current 360's to introduce lower cost units in a few months. As long as the PS3 is not catching up then MS is content to take the profit on the current $399 price. A few months from now just in time for the fall selling season the 360 price will drop (unless Sony drops the price of the PS3).
As for games selling systems I am still a believer that libraries sell systems in the long run and the library the 360 is building up this year is going to work wonders over the long term. It will be very hard to turn down a 360 late this year with all the fabulous games available. Will Halo 3 sell millions of consoles? Nope. Will GTA IV sell millions of consoles? Nope. Yet you add in those 2 with everything else that has arrived this year and month after month continues to arrive and then add in the price drop and banner 4th qtr is on the way.
As for the Wii. I believe sooner or later PS2 games with waggle will start to bother consumers. At least this is helping Sony with PS2 sales. 3rd party developers also must love it. The tools they built to port PS2 to GCN games can still be used for Wii games. As for SMG and the others coming this year. I think that the GCN proved that Nintendo fans jump in early and the vast majority of the people that are going to purchase those games purchased the Wii for Zelda. It is the library of non-Nintendo games and new Wiimote games that really accomplish something that will determine if the Wii can keep up it's current pace. Yet I dont think MS really cares. It is Sony they are after.
I believe that they are clearing the pipeline of current 360's to introduce lower cost units in a few months. As long as the PS3 is not catching up then MS is content to take the profit on the current $399 price. A few months from now just in time for the fall selling season the 360 price will drop (unless Sony drops the price of the PS3).
As for games selling systems I am still a believer that libraries sell systems in the long run and the library the 360 is building up this year is going to work wonders over the long term. It will be very hard to turn down a 360 late this year with all the fabulous games available. Will Halo 3 sell millions of consoles? Nope. Will GTA IV sell millions of consoles? Nope. Yet you add in those 2 with everything else that has arrived this year and month after month continues to arrive and then add in the price drop and banner 4th qtr is on the way.
As for the Wii. I believe sooner or later PS2 games with waggle will start to bother consumers. At least this is helping Sony with PS2 sales. 3rd party developers also must love it. The tools they built to port PS2 to GCN games can still be used for Wii games. As for SMG and the others coming this year. I think that the GCN proved that Nintendo fans jump in early and the vast majority of the people that are going to purchase those games purchased the Wii for Zelda. It is the library of non-Nintendo games and new Wiimote games that really accomplish something that will determine if the Wii can keep up it's current pace. Yet I dont think MS really cares. It is Sony they are after.
KeithFranklin said:
The Wii is a competitor, why shouldn't they care about it? You might want to say Wii plays in a different league, but that's just because it's more attractive to the mass market, and there is Microsoft's problem, they are currently unable to reach this group, and that doesn't have to do much with the price, but with their games.
I think people here are overestimating the casual market appeal with the 360. As it stands, it's appealing to the hardcore, but not to the casuals (like the PS2, and the Wii) - hence its sales. If you think a price drop (of the CORE of all things - please stop using the tard pack as an example) is going to help them become the casual system of choice, you should be working with Pachter. Will GTA4 and Halo 3 move systems? Hell yes they will - but to the point where they're selling a million systems/month in the slow spring months??
A price drop isn't going to magically improve the current perception of the 360 in the least bit, and unless something historically unprecedented happens, the Wii will most likely pass the 360 LTD this year. With all that said, I believe Microsoft is going to be happy either way, because they accomplished their goal of "making money" and "beating Sony" (once again, the PS3 will likely remain third unless something historically unprecedented happens).
A price drop isn't going to magically improve the current perception of the 360 in the least bit, and unless something historically unprecedented happens, the Wii will most likely pass the 360 LTD this year. With all that said, I believe Microsoft is going to be happy either way, because they accomplished their goal of "making money" and "beating Sony" (once again, the PS3 will likely remain third unless something historically unprecedented happens).
Chiggs said:
I'm talking trends, not certainties. What's looking like it's going to happen, barring unforseen circumstances (or throwing out history from other trends), will likely happen.
You might be able to still argue for for Europe, as its not as dire there yet... but Japan? Have you seen the last MediaCreate? :lol
PistolGrip
sex vacation in Guam
jimbo said:
Oh snap, was this sarcasm. It's brilliant
Well considering it's 20x the 360 numbers and higher than PS2 numbers I would say they are not so bad.
Nightstick11 said:
oh nightstick, it's the use of hyperbole that borders on sounding like irrational fanaticism that undermines your comments.
how many people would take me seriously if in this very thread I said something like, "once the second coming also known as halo 3 is released sales of the x360 will become a runaway train."
i also think the sales of 2 post-holiday and supply constrained months is not enough to translate into a consistent, long-term sales trend. i prefer to wait and see before making any more opinions -- all i say is, be cautious. that goes for me too.
TheProfessor said:
20 x shit isn't really a good indicator, though :lol (edit: Jarrod put it perfectly)
You need enough forward momentum worldwide to be able to outsell the hell out of the 360 for a long time to even catch up to its 9.5m-ish sold through.
And arne... one thing you have to think about, even in your conservatism, is - why exactly is the Wii sold out worldwide and still supply constrained months after the holidays/launch well into spring?
TheProfessor said:
Dude, PS3 is doing terrible in Japan. There's even a thread in 2ch where they're saying the 360 is gonna pass up the PS3 in weekly sales around June/July when that Eternal Sonata game comes out (whereas the equivelent PS3 major release is Madden 07). Basically, even if temporarily, they're anticipating PS3 sales to fall below 10,000 a week by then, and a major software release from 360 could actually push it past the PS3.
Karma Kramer
Banned
What is going on in this thread?
PistolGrip
sex vacation in Guam
:O You win...jarrod said:
Would MS even drop the prices if Sony dropped the 60gb model down to $499.99? MS positioned themselves with a model that's $20 cheaper, but has a double the size HDD, and has, well, sort of has HDMI... While they still have their value game machine at $399.99... I don't know if they'd budge even yet... It would probably take a Sony price drop, plus, sales to pick up as well...
J-Rzez said:
I don't think so. I think that around Halo 3 time, MS is gonna drop the elite to $400, Premium to $300, and phase out or drop the Core to somewhere around $200, along with a small price drop on accessories like the 20GB HD. Honestly, MS needs to drop the price to really start competing with the Wii, and there is no better time to do that than around the release of their big big titles just before the holiday season starts. MS will have maintained the $400 for Premium price for close to 2 years, I don't see how they can NOT drop the price. It goes against the industry trends for forever not to drop the price as production costs go down.
Nightstick11
Banned
arne said:
When have I ever said something to the equivalent of "once the second coming also known as halo 3 is released sales of the x360 will become a runaway train" ?
Granted, I don't like Microsoft, but I am certainly not exclusively Nintendo or Sony. It's more of a "anyone but Microsoft" sort of thing, really.
While it is noble that you are more cautious about these sales trends than the average GAFer (veering away from Wii will pass 360 by June! or Wii will suddenly stop selling at all in 2008), I've seen the gaming industry for a long time, as I'm almost positive you have as well, and these sort of trends don't really just disappear one day. Well, at least historically.
I would say its very very likely that the Wii catches the 360 by August, much less by the end of the year.
Right now according to Nintendo Wii is at 6.5m worldwide.
While its harder to figure out the 360 numbers, I'd say its reasonable that its sold a bit over 9million.
So let's say as of April 1 its Wii 6.5M, 360 9.3M.
Now let's look at how much more a month the Wii is selling at its current pace, not taking into account production increases.
In N.A, while the Wii is clearly supply dependant, Wii has outsold the 360 by over a 100K (its more I know). Let's say that on average the Wii will sell 100K more a month in N.A up until the holidays. Again, I'd say thats worst case scenario.
Now Europe. I'd say that at best the 360 is moving 175K a month. At best. I suspect its lower given that its weekly UK sales last week was 11K. But let's give them 175K.
The Wii by Nintendo's statements has sold 2m since launch. 800K was the launch period, so in a period of 3 month's its sold 1.2m. I personally think that's a bit high, so let's go low. Let's say on average, the Wii is selling 250K a month.
Now Japan- I think its reasonable to say the Wii is selling at the bare minimum of 275K a month. 360- like 10k? Again, I suspect that in the months ahead its going to get a lot higher, but we'll see.
So let's add it together: Wii gains a 100K in N.A, 75k in Europe, and 265K in Japan.
That's a 440K difference in sales a month. By that pace, the Wii will be at the 360's level in about 6 months time.
That's the scenario IF Wii production stays as is. We already know its increasing. If Nintendo increases production worldwide by another 150K, Wii will surpass the 360 in FIVE months. If it increases by 300K, it will do it in FOUR months.
I'll put it in simpler terms. Best case scenario for Microsoft based on sales trends is 300K NA, 175K Europe, 10K or so in Japan. That's about a half million a month. Nintendo is selling a million a month already, and production is beginning to increase.
Right now according to Nintendo Wii is at 6.5m worldwide.
While its harder to figure out the 360 numbers, I'd say its reasonable that its sold a bit over 9million.
So let's say as of April 1 its Wii 6.5M, 360 9.3M.
Now let's look at how much more a month the Wii is selling at its current pace, not taking into account production increases.
In N.A, while the Wii is clearly supply dependant, Wii has outsold the 360 by over a 100K (its more I know). Let's say that on average the Wii will sell 100K more a month in N.A up until the holidays. Again, I'd say thats worst case scenario.
Now Europe. I'd say that at best the 360 is moving 175K a month. At best. I suspect its lower given that its weekly UK sales last week was 11K. But let's give them 175K.
The Wii by Nintendo's statements has sold 2m since launch. 800K was the launch period, so in a period of 3 month's its sold 1.2m. I personally think that's a bit high, so let's go low. Let's say on average, the Wii is selling 250K a month.
Now Japan- I think its reasonable to say the Wii is selling at the bare minimum of 275K a month. 360- like 10k? Again, I suspect that in the months ahead its going to get a lot higher, but we'll see.
So let's add it together: Wii gains a 100K in N.A, 75k in Europe, and 265K in Japan.
That's a 440K difference in sales a month. By that pace, the Wii will be at the 360's level in about 6 months time.
That's the scenario IF Wii production stays as is. We already know its increasing. If Nintendo increases production worldwide by another 150K, Wii will surpass the 360 in FIVE months. If it increases by 300K, it will do it in FOUR months.
I'll put it in simpler terms. Best case scenario for Microsoft based on sales trends is 300K NA, 175K Europe, 10K or so in Japan. That's about a half million a month. Nintendo is selling a million a month already, and production is beginning to increase.
Nightstick11 said:When have I ever said something to the equivalent of "once the second coming also known as halo 3 is released sales of the x360 will become a runaway train" ?
Granted, I don't like Microsoft, but I am certainly not exclusively Nintendo or Sony. It's more of a "anyone but Microsoft" sort of thing, really.
While it is noble that you are more cautious about these sales trends than the average GAFer (veering away from Wii will pass 360 by June! or Wii will suddenly stop selling at all in 2008), I've seen the gaming industry for a long time, as I'm almost positive you have as well, and these sort of trends don't really just disappear one day. Well, at least historically.
you're right in that you weren't prone to hyperbole as I stated. i'm sorry i made that statement directed at you.
westical said:
That would help them quite a bit, actually. Currently, the 360 is the hardcore gamers' platform, but nobody else is buying it (hence its middling XBox-ish hardware sales). Mommy and their son can play Wii Sports all day long, but there's no way that mommy and her son are going to play Gears of War together, as a more simplified example (and clearly no, Viva Pinata isn't selling them a $400 console either). If you want to get into the meat of it, you DON'T get worldwide marketleader status by appealing to the hardcore. You get it by appealing to everybody.
The reason why systems like the DS and the PS2 won was because they had appeal far beyond the hardcore. That's what the 360 is missing right now, and that's what the Wii isn't. The hardcore does not in any way, shape or form dictate the market. If it did, we wouldn't have gems like Okami and BG&E bombing while Madden 2999 sells like hotcakes. We're the vast minority here on GAF (our tastes, especially), and that's what so many people fail to realize.
StevieP said:
I'm sorry, but this is nonsense. The PS2 took off with games like GTA3, MGS2, FFX, DMC, GT... none of which are games "mommy and son" play. In fact, a few of those are utterly inaccessible to anyone but the hardcore gamer.
The 360 and PS3 are doing about as well as they can be considering their price and - in the case of the PS3 especially - limited software library. Both those things are utter dead weight on their backs, and the fact that the 360 is even selling slightly better than the original Xbox at this stage is something of an accomplishment, being more expensive and the pervasive notion that the hardware is shoddy.
Vrolokus said:
Let me repeat it for you. CASUAL APPEAL is what gets you hundreds of millions of sales. NOT hardcore appeal. The MAJORITY of games (and systems) that take off, take off because they appeal to more than just the hardcore. This is the 360's current problem, and it's a bigger problem than its price. PS3 even moreso.
Let me ask you... how many GOTY awards did Okami win? How many 90+% reviews did all the hardcore gaming sites give it? Now, on a base of over 100 million systems, how many pieces of software did Okami move? And, finally (here's the kicker) WHY is that?
Wonderdave
Member
StevieP said:
What your not seeing and what a lot of people don't see is that there is little difference between the gaming tastes of the hardcore and the casual. Casuals buy the same games as the hardcore for the most part, while some games are too far from the center, like Okami, to appeal to the casual and others are a total waste of a DVD for the hardcore, like Cabelas' Deer Hunter, the biggest differences between the casual and the hardcore is how many games they're likely to buy and how often they play. In fact I'll be bolder and say that if "hardcore" games like Okami and BG&E were marketed with the same fervor as Madden they would be sales successes as well as critical darlings of the core and the gaming media.
In light of my previous paragraph this is the problem with the X360, MS chooses to stress the hardcore shooters and the occossional driving game over all other offerings. Thus it is percieved is the shooter console. The fact that most of the X360 fans hype up these same games that MS pushes reinforces this perception. Sony simply does a better job of promoting a wide array of genres serving both the core and the casual. Nintendo is practically the polar opposite of MS.
Nightstick11
Banned
Vrolokus said:
To say something like this is to blatantly ignore the historical record.
The PS2 took off from the start because of DVD playback. Unless you really believe Ridge Racer propelled it to sales of 980,000 in its first 2 days in Japan. All those games you listed came out much later, when the PS2 had already "taken off", so to speak.
krypt0nian
Banned
Nightstick11 said:
Oh god, not the DVD drove PS2 thing again. :lol
Nightstick11
Banned
krypt0nian said:
Are you saying it didn't? :lol
I'm going to repeat the facts. 980,000 units in two days.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
:lol
He's all yours, Clark.
He's all yours, Clark.
super funk
Member
Isnt it obvious that Hilary Clinton is using Jackie Robinson to make black people in America vote for her over Barack Osama bin Laden. I dont understand how anyone could vote for someone who wear pants in the summer time. The summer time is for two things: not wearing pants and eating hot dogs. I will never forget the time my friend, Rick, dropped his hot dog on my Xbox 360. And finally, what is the deal with airline peanuts?
AdmiralViscen
Banned
Vrolokus said:
And Jak, Ratchet, Klonoa...
super funk
Member
super funk said:
The "deal" with airline peanuts is that they are undercooked, unlike Xbox 360 sales numbers, which are overcooked. I like to think of the Xbox 360 as a bridge, it takes a while to go over but you always get a nice view. And I like to think of Microsoft as that movie about that guy who has a cookout in his backyard, I think it was starring one of the people from Soul Plane.
Beer Monkey
Member
StevieP said:
What system that costs double the traditional $200 magic price point has ever sold to anybody but 'hardcore gamers'? Is there one?
quest said:
Europe definitely is not Sonyland, Wii & DS say 'hello'
And a price cut doesn't make a console successful, this was shown by the GameCube. Microsoft has to try to appeal not only to the hardcore gamers, this is not too dependent on the price, as you see with Wii. (299.99/199.99 Euro vs. 249.99 Euro, the latter sells much better)
Shiggy said:Europe definitely is not Sonyland, Wii & DS say 'hello'
And a price cut doesn't make a console successful, this was shown by the GameCube. Microsoft has to try to appeal not only to the hardcore gamers, this is not too dependent on the price, as you see with Wii. (299.99/199.99 Euro vs. 249.99 Euro, the latter sells much better)
I have no clue about europe but in NA 199 with a good game library is were the causals start to jump in. The gamecube had the price but poor 3rd party support. The first xbox same thing priced right but not enough 3rd party support. This time around MS has the 3rd party support they just need to get the pricing to 199 ASAP.
quest said:
As was mentioned about ... 450 times... the price of the 360 is not the biggest issue. You can get it CHEAPER than the Wii in Europe, but people by and large are purchasing the Wii in comparison to the 360. Why? Because it's appealing to the casual market. MS has good third party support, but the majority of games that are coming from this support have hardcore appeal (Alan Wake, Mass Effect, DMC4, etc etc) - these probably won't be selling very well to casuals. The one or two games that MS has in its library that CAN appeal to casuals (Viva Pinata, for instance) bombed and the only titles that will have any effect on the casual market are the upcoming Halo and GTA. The only problem is that after the holidays, what will continue to appeal to those same casuals?
MS can get its price down this fall, but at this point I wouldn't be surprised if the Wii continued to sell out and outsell the 360 if Nintendo raised its price to $300. It's white-hot for a reason, and it has everything to do with casual market appeal, not Nintard appeal. And until Sony drops its price (which I highly doubt they will anytime soon) I think MS is sitting fine-and-dandy at their current $400 pricetag. Why lose $25/system at $299 when you could be making $75/system selling at $399? Remember, the XBox division's goal this year is to be profitable, not charitable.
StevieP said:
The reason is to bury the PS3 in NA for keeping it 3rd place for a long time. That way the 360 will be the lead platform for 3rd party developers for pretty much for the rest of this generation. Being the lead platform is huge for the console that might not have as much horsepower as its rival. Being the lead platform was huge for the PS2 very few developers took advantage of the horsepower of the xbox so the graphics advantage was moot.
quest said:
With the way things are going for the PS3 though, MS doesn't have to lower the price to bury them. Sony's doing that to themselves. I don't believe Sony will even be able to match the 360 is Europe to be honest, since the 360 has a bunch of the key games that drive console sales in Europe, notably GTA and Winning Eleven, and is considerably cheaper. I don't care how commited ppl think Europeans are to the Sony brand, when the launch hype dies down they are gonna see that 360 offers an extremely similar experience at a cheaper price. And besides, the Wii's beating both anyway.
Also, this is a general response to an argument I've seen alot around here. It is the most idiotic thing. It's that anyone who wants Halo 3 already owns the 360 so Halo 3 will have little to no effect on hardware sales. In fact, anybody saying this for any high profile game for any system needs to reconsider what they're saying. How does a killer, high profile game for any system NOT increase hardware sales? Because everybody HAD to have bought the system already? That's so incredibly stupid. It's be like arguing that Wii sales will die next year because it was just Nintendo fans buying early on, and no Mario or Zelda or any new Nintendo franchise will increase sales of the Wii since everyone who wants those games already own the Wii.
gollumsluvslave
Member
Now, these above quotes indicate a lack of understanding of 'barrier to entry'. It is the $400 price tag that dictates that 360 appeals to hardcore, simply because it is really only the hardore that can justify the entry price.
We simply DO NOT KNOW, whether the 360's current/upcoming library appeals to casuals at a more acceptable casual price-point. Which is why Microsoft *need* to drop the price prior to the release of Halo 3 and GTA IV.
I would agrue that the 360 library DOES appeal to casuals, just not enough to bite at the current price.
Howeve, I have a strong feeling that MS are NOT going to drop the 360 price until Sony makes the first move with PS3 - which would be a gargantuan mistake. They need to demonstrate that they want to be the market-leader, not follower.