Few fights in UFC history are likely to be remembered decades later as being as historically significant as the Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche main event of UFC 157.
That was going to be the case before either stepped foot in the UFC cage. But how it would be remembered depended largely on what happened once they did.
There will be bigger fights this year, those that will sell more tickets and do bigger numbers on PPV. In fact, there will be one in just three weeks, when Georges St-Pierre faces Nick Diaz in Montreal. But no fight and promotion had more riding on it. No matter what happens with St-Pierre vs. Diaz, even if St-Pierre loses and retires, the sport goes on and years from now, nothing markedly changes.
Had the promotion of UFC 157 flopped, or had the public really shunned it like some vocal people expected they would, the plight of women in the sport would change markedly.
The introduction of women, as noted constantly the past few weeks, was not something UFC had embraced. Sure, the narrative that they were against it for all these years was partially because their rival promotion, Strikeforce, had all the key women under contract. And they did have interest in Gina Carano and opened up talks more than four years ago with her, although if the talks had gone anywhere, she and the women would have likely been assigned to the WEC. But had that happened, they would have likely been brought over when WEC was shut down.
But none of that happened and Carano was gone from the scene. And with her leaving, interest in womens MMA did decline with Cris Cyborg mauling and destroying opposition while sporting the physique of a female bodybuilder.
It was Rouseys success in garnering heat and interest in her fight with Miesha Tate that opened Dana Whites eyes that there was marketing potential with women. When Rousey, with no undercard, and with a fight that only took up 54 seconds of television time, was able to draw Strikeforces highest ratings of 2012, a rating on par with some UFC shows on FOX, it was pretty clear her marketability had crossed over from theoretical to proven.
The 2/23 show at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA, was a series of firsts all rolled into one.
It was the first womens fight in UFC history. Rouseys debut was one of the most hyped in company history. And it was a title fight. And more importantly, it was the main event on a PPV. Instead of taking the safe route, putting her debut on free television, or putting her debut in a semi-main event position with one of the big draws on top to ensure the show was a success, White put all the pressure on them.
Talking after the show, White said that she had already established she could draw good television ratings. He said that it would have been a waste to have the first womans championship fight in UFC, with the publicity it would garner, on free television.
At first, it seemed he was stacking the deck against Rousey. One of pro wrestlings smartest analysts, looking at it from the viewpoint of a wrestling promoter and knowing how vocal against women in MMA White and Lorenzo Fertitta were for years, told me he thought it was the old pro wrestling deal where something was being set up to fail to prove them right. But that wasnt the case here, and White wasnt holding his nose or sticking his foot in the pool when it came to the Rousey business. He was in all the way.
But putting it on a PPV sandwiched between two dates, the traditional Super Bowl show and one of the biggest fights in recent years with GSP vs. Diaz, was tough. Using unheralded Carmouche as the opponent, instead of Cris Cyborg (who it would have been stupid to have been put in the first match for a number of reasons even if she was able to make weight because where do you go from there?), Miesha Tate or Sara McMann seemed a second handicap. And even though Rousey lives in Santa Monica, having the fight in Los Angeles, one of UFCs toughest markets when it comes to selling tickets was another one. Completely out of their hands is that the Prime Time shows, that ranked up there with the best the company has ever produced, were scheduled for Thursday nights at midnight on Fuel, and Saturday mornings at 11 a.m. on FX, hardly prime time in spots that would have the kind of viewership necessary to make a huge difference. Of course, with UFC, the reality is, if theres a fight people want to see, none of those things are handicaps.
And clearly, from the weak first week sales, this was not a fight people at the onset wanted. The 4,000 tickets for $600,000 ranked near the bottom of the worst advances for a major show in years.
But things turned around.
In reality, the biggest part of the history was not it being the first womens fight in the Octagon. It was if the public was interested in buying tickets and PPVs, and if the women performed at a level where they would be taken seriously as something other than a gimmick sideshow.
But how would the average fan take it. In reality, there was a history dating back to 2007 and Elite XC, showing the idea that fans would reject it, or not watch it because its women instead of men was long since disproved. Strikeforce headlined a few shows with women, and they all did average, some better than average, and one was near record setting. Considering the number of mens fights vs. womens fight on the national scene in 2012, its significant that two of the top five finishers for last years fight of the year were womens bouts. But there were questions if things like the crazy web traffic Rousey drew last year would translate into ticket sales or PPV numbers. In Strikeforce, she did not prove to be a big ticket seller for all the talk she generated.
Theres a lot of things Im really naive to, said Dana White shortly after the show ended. Its 2013. I never expected such goofy backlash from people. Whats awesome is the way the media handled this fight. The mainstream media was awesome. It got the respect it deserved. Sports Center was Tweeting all night about the fight. Theyve never done that before. It was on the front page of CNN, Sports Illustrated.com, the way the media treated this fight was amazing. And those two went in there and delivered tonight.
For all the talk that the hardcore UFC fan base, those who spend hundreds of dollars on tickets, would be resentful of womens fights in the first place, let alone in the main event, the argument was blown out of the water.
In the Honda Center, it was obvious it was Rousey who was the one they came to see, even appearing on a show with two of the more popular fighters in UFC history, Dan Henderson and Urijah Faber. It was not a reaction like Chuck Liddell, GSP, Randy Couture, or even Faber or B.J. Penn in their respective championship primes. But aside from the most-beloved fighters in company history at their peaks, it topped pretty well anyone else.
Generally speaking, this show drew the typical UFC audience: males, mostly between the ages of 20 and 40. There were more women than usual for a show in Anaheim, some who came in groups. There were those sporting home-made T-shirts with one or both womens faces on them. There were some older women, past 40, the likes that you would almost never see at a UFC event. There were virtually no teenagers. While the soccer moms and teenage girls were cheering for Rousey like a pop star a few days earlier at the public workouts, on fight night, this was the same fight fan audience that UFC usually draws in the Los Angeles/Anaheim market.
During the show, and with the benefit of hindsight, it now almost seems laughable that this match and the idea of it was the subject of great debates for the last few months. The reaction to both women was positive, and far stronger than for anyone else on the show.
These two girls worked their asses off selling this fight, said White after the show. They were up at 5 in the morning. It was refreshing having people who do the shit theyre supposed to do.
There were positives, including UFC selling more tickets after the first weekend than any show they have put on since 2007. The show did sell out, with 11,116 paid and 13,161 total (it was announced as 15,525 at the show) and a gate of $1,350,191. The gate was actually lower than the vast majority of UFC major shows. But given the market, and putting women on top was a risk, ticket prices were lower than for most major shows, although they were identical to the previous show in the market which was headlined by a major heavyweight title fight. A sellout is still a sellout, and there were very few tickets available on the secondary market.
For a comparison, the previous show in the building was also one of the biggest fights in company history, the first show on FOX with Cain Velasquez defending his title against Junior Dos Santos. That show did 9,864 paid, 11,607 total and a gate of $1,072,187, which tells you why comparing the gate with other markets would be misleading. The idea that a womens title match featuring a star against a no-name could outdraw in the same market a heavyweight bout between the two best in the sport, with a popular Hispanic champion, is almost inconceivable.
The company budgeted the PPV at 250,000 buys going in. The realistic hope even as late as the week of the show was to do 300,000, which, given the numbers every championship under 170 pounds does in UFC, would have been considered a success. There were a lot of people who predicted gigantic numbers, I saw numbers like 750,000 thrown around. Others people who predicted under 200,000 (in the Eddie Alvarez court case, Ray Langbord, an executive with EPIX who formerly was an exec at Showtime, brought in as a PPV industry expert by Bellator, wrote an affidavit specifically stating that this show would do less than 200,000 buys) and for UFC to fall on its face. This was completely uncharted waters and no matter what anyone said ahead of time, nobody had a benchmark and thats why there was more interest in this number than any in recent memory.
Based on very preliminary information, the show looks to be doing between 400,000 and 500,000 buys worldwide when all is said and done. Those with access to the numbers said that because of all the talk, the belief was that late buys would be well above usual levels and in the end, 500,000 was a possibility, and if not, it would come close to that number. My best estimate on the North American number is 440-450,000 but its still way early to get an accurate read, but there is enough info out to know that the show was a big success on PPV. Given her opponent was not a major star, at that level, it would put her behind only GSP as far as drawing without a proven star opponent, as neither Anderson Silva nor Jon Jones has pulled numbers that large without an opponent with some star power.
For a comparison, UFC 156, with a dream lighter weight match with Jose Aldo Jr. vs. Frankie Edgar, the Super Saturday tradition, and Rashad Evans and Alistair Overeem on the undercard, did about 330,000 buys.
Even at 400,000 buys, the last time a show headlined by someone under 170 pounds who hit that number would have been UFC 118 with B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar in August of 2010, which was a very different era when it comes to UFC PPV business. And Im not sure the real draw on that night wasnt really the gimmick UFC vs. boxing match with Randy Couture vs. James Toney.
The last time an under 170 fight beat the figure on its own would have been Penn vs. Diego Sanchez back in 2009, and when youre using Penn in his prime as a comparison point, thats saying a lot when you have to compare him at his peak to someone who was only in her first PPV show.
The only show in history where a newcomer did better would have been Toney, fighting Couture, and the 2008 UFC debut of Brock Lesnar, who faced Frank Mir.
As far as the night went, it was the perfect storm. The biggest surprise when it came to the promotion of the event was the always-smiling, well-spoken Carmouche. She went from simply being the opponent for Rouseys showcase to being an important part of the story herself. Carmouche had never made any money from fighting, was working 14 hour days in the gym and trying to find training time in between. The former marine, who served in Iraq, owned no kitchen table, or a couch. She worked tirelessly in promoting this fight, including an appearance with a clueless Larry King.
UFC pushed the fact Carmouche was gay in the promotion of the event, calling her the first openly gay fighter in the history of the promotion. The UFC really put a major marketing push toward the Gay and Lesbian community in marketing this fight to their media. Its impossible to know what paid off, and whether the crowd buying the show was a new audience, or just the regular audience.
Judging from the live crowd, it would appear to be the usual audience. The only thing notable is that those who did buy the show were either more affluent than usual, or had more interest in some form than usual. The vast majority of viewers purchased the show at $54.95 instead of $44.95, in a percentage no UFC event in the past has ever delivered. That probably means something, but Im not exactly sure what it is. It was also noted that UFCs traditional first way of estimating how a PPV would do, the number of sales worldwide on the Internet, a number they have the next day, indicated significantly lower numbers than the satellite and early cable numbers that came in over the next few days did.
Again, what that means is hard to say. There is a feeling that women dont buy PPVs on the Internet, and that the higher numbers on regular PPV indicated the men buyers would have been in line with UFC 156, but the increase over that level came from women. But that is all theoretical.
And there are still a lot of skeptics. There were people who felt that the show was going to do okay because of all the media and hype behind it. Others who felt because of so much media, that even a 500,000 number was a disappointment, which was ridiculous. And it is true that there is a portion of the audience, whether its tiny enough to be statistically insignificant is unknown, that is not going to buy a womans fight as the main event, or believe it is viable.
There was the argument that being the first time ever garnered a level of media attention that the second and third time would not get, and that this was a one-time novelty attraction, with no staying power and will flop with her second main event. Others felt that UFC stars, historically, dont vary much on top based on novelty, as their ups and downs drawing is based more on the quality of opponent and the hype. Those in UFC kept bringing up that Rouseys novelty first time main event on television with Tate did a 1.15 overall rating and 1.59 for the main event. A few months later, with less of a grudge match, against the less marketable Sarah Kaufman, with a weaker undercard and a one minute fight, she pulled a 1.48 rating for her entire show and a 1.9 for her match, both the largest numbers of the year for Strikeforce.
When the Showtime/Zuffa split was coming, Showtime itself was negotiating with her with the idea of keeping MMA and building an entire promotion around her. Whether it would be an all-womens promotion or just a promotion with men and women, she was essentially in the position Ric Flair was in 1988 with Turner Broadcasting. With him they were going to do a promotion. If he wasnt there, they didnt have interest in keeping it going.
While Carmouches listed pay for this fight was $12,000, thats only a fraction of what she really earned, which was legitimately life changing money. When the show was over, White noted that shes going to be able to buy a kitchen table, and a couch. The truth is, shell probably have enough left over for a down payment to get herself a nice house. Plus, she established herself as the female Stephan Bonnar from an historical standpoint, meaning, even if she never headlines again, as long as she can be competitive, shell likely always have a job and theyll have loyalty to her for her role in this. And if she can put together a string of wins, the company will be very happy to give her another title shot.
Carmouche managed to get Rousey in trouble early. She hopped on her back, and from the piggy back position, worked for a choke, the same move Faber had used to beat Ivan Menjivar earlier in the show. She couldnt get the choke, so instead went for a face lock and neck crank. Rouseys mouthpiece came out and Carmouche was squeezing so hard on her mouth that she had a row of deep embedded teeth marks on her forearm. Some tried to create a story saying Rousey bit her to escape, but Carmouche never claimed that, and its still hard to figure out how one would bite with only the marks of the top row of teeth and none of the bottom.
Rousey used her judo skills to take Carmouche down in a headlock, and the place was deafening at that point. Rousey threw a ton of punches on the ground while Carmouche tried for a desperation triangle that wasnt coming close. Rousey maneuvered into working for an armbar. Carmouche was fighting it off as the crowd went crazy. Time in the first round was winding down and the drama was if Carmouche would be the first person to take Rousey into the second round. But it didnt happen, as Rousey got the armbar and Carmouche had to tap at 4:49.
Im glad it was a great fight, said Rousey. I feel it really did live up to the hype. The place was going nuts. Im glad it was a full house and I was honored to be part of it. This was something really special. It may take a while for it to sink in.
While Rousey and Carmouche delivered, they did not have the best fight of the night, which went to a brawl on FX between Dennis Bermudez and Matt Grice, who had a fight that is likely to be in serious discussion for fight of the year. But for those who argued that Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida should have been the main event, or was the match people came to see, it was a weak argument to start out with and by the end of the night, those with the argument had egg on their face.
Henderson, like Faber, was very popular, even more than Carmouche to the live crowd. But they were not in the league with Rousey, who got huge reactions, all positive, every time her face was shown on the screen. And thats amazing because even though neither Henderson nor Faber are really super PPV draws, they are two of the most-liked fighters in the company.
But the Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida fight, more due to Machida, stunk out the building. Had it gone on last, nobody would have left happy. Had it been promoted as the main event, with the benefit of hindsight, theyd have squandered a lot of the mainstream press and interest, and would have been expected to do about 275,000 buys.
From the sound of the crowd, everyone sounded like they were really happy, said Rousey. For all the people who had a good time, Im happy to have entertained you.
I believed in this fight, and I knew it was good enough to be the main event, said White. I felt like this was going to be big. Id be a complete liar if I said I thought he media would treat this fight the way they did.
That was the surprise. There were no articles along the lines of how the barbaric UFC was no putting girls fighting in a cage. Only one mainstream article I saw even approached it like a novelty sideshow, and that article was so out to lunch to begin with because it also talked about how UFC had dropped the ball on promotion of the fight.
Part was that both women had such interesting stories, Rouseys entire life, and the Olympic bronze medal gave her an athletic credibility so she couldnt be dismissed as this pretty girl being pushed, particularly with all her first round armbar wins. Carmouche, the way she handled the media, and her own story of being in the Marines and having to keep quiet about her sexuality, coming out, and how a win would be life changing wouldnt allow for much of a freak show stigma.
Its hard to say outright this was UFCs best job of promoting a fight, but it was in the top tier. When you look back at the second Tito Ortiz vs. Chuck Liddell fight, the second Penn vs. St. Pierre fight, the second Lesnar vs. Mir fight or the Rampage Jackson vs. Rashad Evans fight. But this was the most impressive. It was a given all of those fights would have done well due to the circumstances, interviews with the participants, and their popularity at the time.
This fight literally started at zero a few months ago. Two months before all of those fights, the UFC audience badly wanted to see all the latter three of them. All three also had hype specials on Spike that did record numbers weekly, with some of the strongest face vs. heel dynamics in company history. Ortiz vs. Liddell didnt have the Prime Time build, but it came during UFCs novelty period and had the perfect build with a super heel against a super face in what at the time felt like the ultimate of the ultimate during the companys growth spurt.