Mike Chiapetta of MMAFighting.com this past week ran a very interesting article spelling out why the originally proposed Ronda Rousey vs. Cris Cyborg fight, which would have taken place on 2/23 in Anaheim, didnt happen.
The article indicated the weight issue that has floated around was a cover reason and indicated it was more about money, that Cyborgs camp wasnt happy that Rousey was going to be paid a lot more and the event was going to be pushed around her as opposed to promoted around both of them.
Whats notable about this are a few points. The first is UFC was willing to go with Cyborg right away, the fight that most feel would have been Rouseys biggest risk. Plus, there was already an historical precedent with Strikeforce, in the aftermath of Cyborgs win over Gina Carano, of what happens to the popularity of womens MMA if Cyborg is the top star.
During the build of the Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche fight, Dana White and Rousey both pushed the idea that Carmouche got the fight because nobody else was willing. Naturally, all the other women were upset about this, because nobody in their right mind should have turned down the opportunity to be in the first womans fight in UFC.
But there was a measure of truth. UFC tried to get Cyborg, and eventually it fell apart over money. Sara McManns management had said they wanted a few fights in UFC before the title fight, going with the idea McMann would mean more against Rousey after the national audience knew her. That was sound thinking, except the first time ever aspect of the fight changed the dynamics because of the gains of being remembered, something Carmouche will always have that the others wont. Miesha Tate had said after her win over Julie Kedzie that she wanted time off. She was never contacted again. She had said she would have taken the fight if offered, but neither she, nor anyone from her management, had contacted UFC saying Tates statement about wanting time off didnt include if the first womans fight in UFC against Rousey was part of the equation.
Rousey vs. Tate was the fight that kicked this off. Rousey, provided she kept winning, was going to be a star either way, but Tate was the perfect opponent to kick it off. The two genuinely didnt like each other. The looks aspect was absolutely a big factor. Plus, their first fight clicked big in the last few days, and while ratings were really nothing special, the atmosphere in the building gave more than just hints something big was on the horizon. Plus, they had an exciting fight.
Chiapetta spoke with Mike Dolce, the fighter-turned diet/weight cutting trainer, and how it related to the potential Rousey vs. Cris Cyborg fight. Dolce is MMAs version of DDP, in that he works very hard at marketing himself. Dolce has publicly stated on several occasions that he could get Cyborg to 135.
What wasnt said is Dolce and Cyborg had a business meeting last fall on he subject. At the time, Cyborg wasnt training much and weighed 168. Dolce said after the meeting, he had a plan where she could make weight, he said easily, by the proposed late February date. They shook hands and he thought they had a deal. Cyborg just said she would talk with her management and get back to him.
Dolce said nobody ever got back to him. Dolce said the next thing he heard on the subject was months later, when Tito Ortiz, Cyborgs manager, said it would be impossible for her to make 135 and she was using that as her reason for not taking the fight. Eventually, Ortiz asked UFC for Cyborgs release from her contract, and within a few days, they signed a deal with Invicta, which would have allowed her to fight at 145. UFC, at the time, said they were only going to have women fight at 135, because they wanted a specific weight class and there was a feeling there wasnt enough depth in the womens ranks to spread it over several divisions.
Dolce said that if Cyborg had followed his program starting in November, that Cyborg could have made 135 by late February, which was the target date for the fight. The story also said that when UFC was negotiating with Cyborg for the date, UFC had agreed to pay the costs for Dolce, or another diet guru of her choice.
The story said the fight fell apart because they felt UFC was promoting the event around Rousey, and not equally. Every PPV mega fight require two participants, and they werent giving Cris her just credit, said George Prajin of Primetime 360, Cyborgs management team. They were compensating Ronda like she was the only attraction of the fight.
Part of the issue is that Cyborg was already under contract to them since she had signed a new multi-fight deal with Strikeforce in late 2011, after sitting out for a long time because the sides were far apart on money. She had only fought once since.
The big issue here is a huge gap between sides and what is just value. Cyborg has believed that since she is the best female fighter in the world, she should be paid like it, and that she beat Gina Carano but got paid far less than Carano.
The problem is, and this is huge, is that after Cyborg beat Carano, Cyborgs subsequent fights garnered very little interest. It surprised me seeing how big the Carano fight was, the reaction, the ratings, the attendance, etc. While Carano was clearly the star, one would have thought Cyborg would have come out of such a big win on the first womens main event that set record Showtime MMA ratings as a big star herself. There are obvious conclusions you can draw as to why that didnt happen, but I think UFC recognizes that it didnt.
Rousey vs. Cyborg can be promoted with the UFCs marketing behind it as the biggest womens fight in history and insiders may feel Cyborg is still the best fighter, although the steroid issue as it pertains to this fight is huge. Because women dont produce the level of testosterone as men, a woman on steroids has far more of a competitive edge against someone clean than a man would under the same circumstances. We can all play pretend, but Cyborg did fail a test, and even if she hadnt, photos of Brazilian handball star Cristiane Justino and fighter Cris Cyborg can challenge any before-and-after Barry Bonds photos.
Cyborg did pass all her tests prior to her Invicta fight last month, and she was tested during some of her other fights. But given the nature and limitations of testing when you know in advance when you are tested, that doesnt mean a whole lot.
Today, Cyborg on the outside is not nearly the star that Liz Carmouche or Miesha Tate are. But if she signs with UFC, she will be. One can only argue, and this is a valid one, that her management should have come up with a long-term battle plan for her to naturally get her bodyweight to 145-150, where the cut to 135 wouldnt be harsh. She would lose muscle and strength, but thats part of the game, and its hard for people to have sympathy because of the belief of how she got that much muscle and strength. I can recall talking to Marloes Coenen, after she had come-from-behind to beat Carmouche, and she was remarking that Carmouche was deceptively strong. But not Cyborg strong, noting Cyborg had the strength of the male fighters shes trained with.
Prajin admitted Cyborg would have taken the original fight if the sides could have made the contract deal. They said the deal fell apart on two points. The first was they were not happy with the deal UFC offered money wise, and that UFC insisted on her signing an eight-fight contract. Cyborg was under an existing contract with the organization. In her last fight with Strikeforce, she earned $66,000 ($33,000 base; $33,000 for the win). Given the nature of most Strikeforce deals, that was probably her rate for her next fight. Given UFC was attempting to renegotiate an existing deal and for a longer term, and given the fight they were planning on starting with, they werent going to be negotiating downward when it came to money.
While Rousey was listed at making $90,000 for the Carmouche fight ($45,000 base; $45,000 for the win), given how the show did on PPV, and the fact UFC itself was sponsoring her, she made significant multiples of what came out.
Prajin said they didnt want Cyborg tied up with UFC for more than three fights.
In this case, while it may work out in the end. Rousey vs. Cyborg with similar promotion would have beaten the Rousey vs. Carmouche numbers. It may not have significantly, because there may have been a ceiling on the number of people willing to buy a womans fight as the main event at that stage. But it could have been significantly. Cyborg would have ended up making a good deal of money, not to mention the power of having that media exposure would have done for her in any potential marketing ideas her management had. Long-term, even had she lost, shed always be that woman in the famous fight.
If Rousey and Cyborg keep winning and the match takes place in 2014, it could end up being significantly bigger and everyone will make out. In MMA, the rule is when a big fight is there, you try to sign it, because you cant count on both fighters having long win streaks to build it up bigger. Cyborg has the ability to get out of her Invicta deal if the fight would open up. And the Invicta deal, for three fights, the second of which takes place in July, will likely expire before there would be an opening for her to face Rousey. With Rousey fighting Cat Zingano in December, the earliest opening looks to be around March 2014.
McMann, Carmouche or Tate may pick up a few wins by then. Depending on how those wins look and if one of those three catches on, and if Cyborg hadnt fought in UFC, its not a lock Rousey vs. Cyborg ten months from now would be the biggest potential fight. And if Rousey should lose to Zingano, everything changes.
Prajin told Chiapetta that they were willing to go to 135 and face Rousey, but that Cyborg didnt want to make the cut eight times. They also noted Cyborg did try a practice cut, with Ortiz as her coach, and failed at it.
Dolce noted that Cyborg was 145.7 pounds the night before weigh-ins for her fight last month as proof she could make 135, given thats what most 135-pounders are weighing the night before.
At the end, this is a game of Cyborgs management believing that in picking up wins at 145 in Invicta, that, over time, interest in the fight will be bigger, so big UFC will come back to them with better terms. Ortiz played this game on a few occasions with UFC, successfully, and made a lot of money in the process. Dan Henderson did as well, signing a big money deal with Strikeforce, and thus thats his pay rate now. But Ortiz had Strikeforce as leverage, and Henderson used it. Invicta, with no television exposure at all, is not leverage. Fedor Emelianenkos management played that game as well, and in the end, lost out on millions.
Thats not to say this wont work out for them. Its a risk, but with no rival group, the leverage is very limited. UFC seems to have already proven it can field a womens division that will get over. Rouseys second fight, if she can pull numbers close to or better than her first, will prove she can draw as champion regardless of the opponent and it wasnt a one-time fluke. At that point, UFC will have little need for Cyborg, not that they wouldnt use her, because all indications are as long as she keeps winning, the door would be open.
But until that happens, expect posturing from both sides. Dana White will run down her management for not taking the offers, and her for not taking the fight offered, and say theyre moving on and dont need her. Her management will use the weight issue. And it is part of the deal because the belief is even if Cyborg does make 135, it compromises her ability as a fighter. Perhaps that gives Rousey, who is smaller and can make the weight more easily, an edge the day of the fight. The story concluded that Cyborgs team is banking on public demand forcing UFC to make the fight, giving them the leverage that right now they dont have, and they may have even less if Rouseys second fight does better than her first. And they hope that leverage would allow them to get the fight at 140.
I dont think we would try it (a fight with Rousey at 135), Prajin said, unless UFC really, really made it worth Cris while.
Preliminary indications are that the 4/27 PPV, headlined by Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen, did between 520,000 and 550,000 buys. Thats way up from Jones previous defense against Vitor Belfort, and a little up from most of his other main shows, but nowhere close to the Rashad Evans numbers. Then again, come the week of the fight, I dont think too many people saw it as doing numbers close to Evans as it simply didnt have the storyline. The TUF stuff didnt build the fight all that much. The number was also hurt by the fact I dont think people thought Sonnen could win. Its still looks to be No. 2 on PPV for this year so far. I dont think anyone else in the division right now would have come close to those numbers with Jones.
Dana White got into a twitter battle with ESPN business reporter Darren Rovell, who remarked that a friend of his at the 4/27 show in Newark was able to get a $553 ticket at the last minute for $50 and said UFC is starting to lose a bit of its edge and then remarked maybe they should run fewer shows. White and Lorenzo Fertitta dont believe in overexposure and market conditions are different in the sense WWE and UFC are now in the business of churning out as much product as possible to get revenue from selling it. White reacted by sending Rovell these factoids. He wrote that 2012 was the companys best year for revenue and the first quarter of 2013 is up more than 30% from the first quarter of 2012. Of course, 2012 was up because it was the first year of the FOX deal where television revenue tripled. PPV revenue was down, as were ratings, but TV revenue was up. The first quarter of 2013 was awesome because you had a strong Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche PPV and a monster GSP vs. Nick Diaz show, along with a show with a Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar main event that also featured Rashad Evans and Alistair Overeem. The first quarter PPVs of 2012 were Aldo vs. Chad Mendes, which didnt do well, Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit, which did less than Rousey vs. Carmouche, and Edgar vs. Benson Henderson from Japan, which did okay for an Edgar fight but tiny compared to GSP vs. Diaz. They noted every event in April was up, that Stockholms gate was up 23% from last year (both shows were sellouts, this year they had higher ticket prices), the 4/13 show was the largest gate and most tickets sold for a TUF finale (true, moved to a bigger location and Im thinking Mandalay Bay helped with that but ticket sales were about triple a usual TUF finale), San Jose was up 24% in ticket sales and 5% in gate from the last major show there (they were comparing it to the Dan Henderson vs. Shogun/Cung Le vs. Wanderlei Silva show, not the Mark Munoz vs. Chris Weidman show, which the number would have been more like a 715% increase since that one did so poorly) and Newark was up 9% in ticket sales and 12% in gate from the last time there (the Jones vs. Shogun Rua main event). They also noted the success on Fuel (Fuel numbers since January have been way up, with the most watched shows in the history of the station all being UFC shows in the last few months), that TUF 17 was the highest rated season since going on FX (really not a great point, since the show moved from Fridays to Tuesdays and the rating is still well below what the show did on Spike) and that The Sao Paulo show was the highest rated FX event (true, but still less viewers then a lot of live shows on Spike did). Rovells point was bad because any UFC show that doesnt sell out, you are probably going to have last minute bargains on the secondary market, and Newark did well, and beat the last time UFC was in that building, but it wasnt a sellout. Even a few years ago, unless it was a first-time-in-the-market or a hot market, you could probably find examples of that. Now, has UFC cooled off? The baseline audience is down from a few years back because there are so many shows, but the big shows are going to do just as well, and so far this year theyve had some big shows. Thats probably how things are always going to be. Its a main event dependent business when it comes to its up and down variances and so far this year, theyve put on main events the public wants to see. If there are a lot of injuries, or non-charismatic guys against each other, things wont be as good.
They are looking at doing a monster gate on 7/6, which is interesting because on paper, its not a card to do a monster gate. They have the same ticket prices they had last year for Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen, which did $6,901,655 inside the building (they also closed-circuited the overflow) selling out at prices ranging from $1,200 down to $125, the second biggest gate in company history. They are charging more than for fights like Couture vs. Lesnar and GSP vs. Penn. They are doing a Fan Expo and that brings a lot of people into town who may want to see the show. For a show like this, a lot of buys come from casinos and on the day of the show, UFC doesnt have many empty seats. Tickets go on sale this week. The thing is, UFC has wanted to establish the July Vegas show with the Expo and build it into the annual WrestleMania, but this lineup isnt it. But this isnt like running a regular venue where you have to price it to where you are looking at selling 12,000 to 15,000 tickets to the public. The PPV matches are Anderson Silva vs. Chris Weidman for the middleweight title, Frankie Edgar vs. Charles Oliveira, Tim Kennedy vs. Roger Gracie, Chan Sung Jung vs. Ricardo Lamas and Dennis Silver vs. Cub Swanson. Chan, the Korean Zombie vs. Lamas is likely for a featherweight title shot. Weidman has the best tools to beat Silva of anyone Silva has faced since winning the title in 2006. My rule when it comes to GSP, Jon Jones, Silva and Floyd is that all will lose someday, but until that day, never bet against them. But I dont know if the public knows that because Weidman hasnt fought in a year, and his most impressive win, over an an injured Mark Munoz, was back in July. Edgar vs. Oliveira and Zombie vs. Lamas look like great fights on paper, but Edgar-Oliveira in the semi when youre scaled for almost $7 million is shocking. I guess well see, but this really surprised me.
Cheick Kongos contract expired after UFC 159. He was offered a four-fight extension before the fight but didnt sign. Then, after being knocked out by Roy Nelson, his leverage was gone as far as getting a better deal. Kongo said that the door isnt closed and he is looking at continuing to fight, whether in UFC or elsewhere.
Fox Sports 1 apparently wants Sonnen bad, not just as far as live fights, but for as much other programming as possible. There is talk of expanding UFC Tonight, with Sonnen as a regular host, to one hour on Wednesdays once FS 1 gets going.
UFC had approached Daniel Cormier about a Jon Jones fight, but he asked for a tune up fight at 205 this summer before going for the championship. The name Gegard Mousasi was thrown out, although with Mousasis knee injury and Mousasi also talking about moving to 185, at best that was prelim and theoretical. Then Cormier publicly accepted the fight with Roy Nelson after Dana White had thrown out his name and Mark Hunts name after Nelsons win. Nelsons manager, Mike Kogan, said that Nelson wasnt interested in the fight and was looking at Hunt or Antonio Silva. But then Nelson contradicted his manager and said he would take it. Nelson joked, or maybe was serious, that the winner of the fight should get Jones at 205. Actually, if Nelson was a pro wrestler, they could do some incredible comedy vignettes about him having to cut weight to go for the junior heavyweight title. You couldnt do it in the comedy vein for UFC, but if hes really going to do it, you could do a somewhat endearing special on it. Of course Ive got no idea if hes serious about it. He weighed 258 for his last fight.
There are reports out of Brazil that a live show on Fox Sports 1 is earmarked for 9/4 in Brasilia, Brazil, which would be the UFCs debut in that city. The story out of Brazil is the show would be a lead-in for the first episode of the Rousey vs. Zingano season of Ultimate Fighter.
For what its worth, Dan Rafael and Kevin Iole, two of the countrys leading boxing writers, have written that early sources have the Floyd Mayweather vs. Robert Guerrero PPV numbers at under 1 million. Within the industry, people have talked about the numbers being disappointing. Stephen Espinoza of Showtime, which promoted the fight, and given Mayweathers $32 million guarantee, needed huge numbers to break even. Espinoza claimed on Twitter they were writing based on no factual information when Rafael wrote that 1.1 million to 1.2 million buys was break even according to his sources. Espinoza later wrote, You need better sources. Early PPV estimates, especially three days after the event, are always subject to potential major fluctuations. Chris DeBlasio at Showtime was saying there were too few numbers available to make any estimate meaningful. Rafael said the satellite dish numbers were already in and they are way lower than usual. It does look there is a good chance it wont be the biggest show of the year, in that right now it looks like itll be behind GSP vs. Nick Diaz. Mayweather Jr. did 1.5 million buys for his previous fight against Miguel Cotto, but Cotto himself brought a huge fan base to the table and was a far bigger name than Guerrero. This was the first fight of Mayweathers new long-term deal with Showtime, which signed him away from HBO by guaranteeing him $32 million per fight. Neither Mayweather nor Guerrero broke their back to promote the fight. Mayweather is looking at fighting again on 9/14. The live attendance at the MGM Grand Garden Arena was a sellout 15,880 paying $9,922,350. They put more people in because boxing still doesnt put the big screens up in the arena like UFC does. They also drew another 8,292 on closed circuit within the city.