The UFCs PPV schedule for the rest of the year is pretty well locked in right now after information given by Dana White this past week while in Winnipeg for UFC 161.
White announced three PPV main events, which were expected, although the dates and places they would take place wasnt clear.
UFC 165 will be 9/21 at the Air Canada Center in Toronto, headlined by Jon Jones defending the light heavyweight title against Alexander Gustafsson. Jones, who is tied with Tito Ortiz for the most title defenses in that weight class with five, will attempt to set a record that hes talked about. It also marks the third straight show in Toronto that Jones will headline. Jones headlined UFC 140 on December 10, 2011, finishing Lyoto Machida in the second round. He also defeated Vitor Belfort in the fourth round on 9/22, at UFC 152.
UFC 166, scheduled for October, possibly in Houston, will have the Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos III heavyweight title bout.
UFC 167, scheduled for 11/16 in Las Vegas, will have Georges St-Pierre defending the welterweight title against Johny Hendricks.
UFC 168, scheduled tentatively for 12/28, also in Las Vegas, is headlined by Ronda Rousey vs. Miesha Tate for the womens bantamweight title.
Of course a lot can, and will change, between injuries and other issues. But these will be very interesting fights from a business perspective.
What should be noted about the 11/16 show is that Dana White had talked about doing a UFC 100 caliber show as the 20th anniversary card (the first UFC show was November 12, 1993, in Denver), which was originally scheduled for Madison Square Garden. However, with MMA not getting legalized in New York this year, that became out of the question.
It should also be noted that based on scheduling, the middleweight championship could be ready for either UFC 167 or UFC 168, which would greatly enhance either of those shows, particularly since the logical fight is Vitor Belfort against either Anderson Silva or Chris Weidman. Putting that in November with GSP may not do UFC 100 numbers, but would make it the show of the year. If Anderson Silva wins, putting Silva vs. Belfort with Rousey vs. Tate would also be a huge show, with the ability to do the best male and female fighter in the world defending on the same show promotion. However, if it is Silva vs. Belfort, the smartest move may be to put it at a soccer stadium in Brazil, because such a match would put the countrys two most famous fighters against each other.
Its unclear where Dominick Cruz fits in, but Renan Barao as interim bantamweight champion should also be ready for a show in a few months. The Jose Aldo Jr. vs. Chan Sung Jung winner could be ready to defend the featherweight title on one of the last two shows of the year. Benson Henderson should also be ready by December. It also should be noted that there is a December FOX card as well as probably a late January FOX card so the main events do have to be spread out.
UFC figured to have a slow spring and summer season after the Jones vs. Chael Sonnen fight on 4/27.
The Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva fight featured two fighters who werent going to say anything bad about each other, and was a rematch of a fight that Velasquez won via first round slasher film TKO. Even with Silvas brutal knockout of Alistair Overeem, people didnt seem to take him seriously as a contender and it more served to show the difference in the Overeem that showed up that night and the Overeem of previous years. Overeem had won the first two rounds, then tired, got an accidental head-butt, and was there for the taking at that point. Nobody expected UFC 161 to do any kind of numbers even before the injuries, even though Dan Henderson and Rashad Evens were both name fighters. Anderson Silva vs. Chris Weidman should do the best numbers of the summer. But Weidman is still unknown and without the name recognition usually needed as a draw. Silvas fights vary greatly in results depending on the opponent. Even though a lot of fighters and insiders are talking like Weidman could win, and he does have a stylistic way of doing so, hes not a name the public knows. Weidman has been out of action nearly a year after shoulder surgery. His big impressive win, and it was very impressive, was completely dominating an injured Mark Munoz on a Fuel show that very few people saw. For the fight to do business will require a sell job where they can convince the public to care about Weidman, and believe that if they dont buy the show, they may miss history, the end of Silvas 16-0 UFC streak, the longest in company history.
From there, the 8/3 show in Rio de Janeiro is headlined by Jose Aldo Jr. vs. Chan Sung Jung, the Korean Zombie, for the featherweight title. Jung replaces Anthony Pettis, who suffered a torn meniscus in training and pulled out of the fight. The injury doesnt require surgery. His doctor told him hed be out of action for six weeks. A second therapist told him three weeks, which would mean he could start fight training on 7/6 and he felt he could have fought if they moved the fight to 8/31, but thats not happening. Dana White said they were going to fly Pettis to Las Vegas and have the UFC doctors look at him later this week. Pettis will be given a shot at either the lightweight or featherweight title when whichever champion he faces is ready after their respective August fights.
Pettis is pushing to replace T.J. Grant on the 8/31 show in Milwaukee against Benson Henderson. While it would require pulling a contender from a fight already advertised, there are logical business reasons that could be considered if the UFC doctors say Pettis will be able to start training with enough lead time to be ready for Henderson. For one, the first Henderson vs. Pettis fight was an all-time classic, with one of the great match finishes in history, Pettis kick where he climbed up the cage, pushed off and kicked Henderson in the side of the head to knock him down in the waning seconds of a very close five round fight. The kick guaranteed Pettis the fifth round and gave him the decision, and the WEC lightweight title. Pettis was promised a UFC title shot with the win, but a draw in the Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard fight pushed his shot back. He decided against waiting for his shot, and then lost a decision to Clay Guida, taking away his shot. After a series of wins, most notably over Donald Cerrone, he was scheduled to face Henderson, but instead opted to face Aldo, saying he wanted to win both the 145 and 155 titles, and that Aldo would be the more difficult of the two. But the injury keeps him from facing Aldo unless he is willing to wait for the Aldo vs. Jung winner.
From a business and popularity standpoint, Henderson vs. Pettis is stronger than Henderson vs. Grant, although I dont think either is a big fight and there would be a great deal of difference. From a local standpoint, Pettis is from Milwaukee, and with the show in Milwaukee, thats a very big factor in making it a huge local event. Milwaukee is also the home of one of UFCs leading sponsors, Harley Davidson, which is a big reason the show is in the city. Making the show in the sponsors home town come across as big as possible is important as well.
Jung was scheduled to face Ricardo Lamas on the 7/6 show which was to be a No. 1 contenders fight. Lamas had beaten Erik Koch (who had been scheduled for a title fight but lost it due to injury) with a strong second round stoppage on the 1/26 FOX show in Chicago.
Of the two, Lamas is 13-2 with four straight wins over Koch, Cub Swanson, Hatsu Hioki and Leonard Gracie. Jung is 13-3, with straight wins over Leonard Garcia, Mark Hominick (in seven seconds) and Dustin Poirier (in the fight of the year). In theory, Lamas earned the shot beating Koch based on that fight being for a shot, but Pettis got it ahead of him because Pettis agreed to move down from lightweight, where he was the top contender. Pettis claimed he wanted to became a dual lightweight and featherweight champion (nobody has ever won two UFC belts at the same time), and said Aldo would be a tougher win than Benson Henderson, so wanted him first. Since Pettis would have drawn more (not tons more, but definitely more) than Lamas, and more people would have been interested, he got the shot. In Lamas vs. Jung, you had Lamas as the rightful guy based on his last win, the guy who would have gotten the shot if Pettis didnt get moved down, and being ranked No. 2 contender (Chad Mendes is the No. 1 contender but theyve been reluctant to put Aldo vs. Mendes after Aldo won their first fight conclusively) and Jung is No. 4. Plus, Jung has been out almost a year, since his win over Poirier.
White said he told Lamas that if they cant get him an opponent for 7/6 on such short notice (which at press time has been confirmed that they couldnt get him a new opponent), hed pay him his appearance guarantee for the fight, and hed be in line for a title shot. But if Pettis cant get Henderson, and ends up with Aldo, that would take priority over Lamas, meaning Lamas would probably have to do another fight or two before hed be getting the shot.
However, when it comes to which fight would get more interest, its not even close. Even though Lamas scored an impressive win on FOX, the Korean Zombie is more famous, largely due to his nickname and charisma. This decision didnt get as much complaining (in fact I saw none) as most like this. Once you accept or understand what UFC is, how much business varies in main events between doing the match fans want vs. the match purists want, you understand most of the choices, including this one.
I guess the lack of complaints here is because Zombie didnt lose his last fight, nor come from another weight class. But he still got the title shot based on being the more popular and well known of the two fighters (Korean Zombie has three times the interest and name recognition as Lamas, Chan Sung Jung has 50% more). A lot of that is the nickname. But theres also something else to it that is kind of notable. Zombie is best known for the Poirier fight, which aired on Fuel to a small audience, but he got over more in winning that one than Lamas did with a more dominant win on FOX, but in a less memorable and exciting fight.
An interesting note about this is Jung actually said he believed Lamas deserves the title fight ahead of him, but hes not turning down the opportunity.
Still, neither is anywhere close to a PPV draw and business would have been pretty close no matter who was put in the spot. To me, this show, given its in Brazil, which means less U.S. last week media publicity, will be lucky to do 200,000 buys. I like the fight, but its strictly a hardcore fight and those arent going to do big numbers.
The 8/31 show from Milwaukee, with Benson Henderson vs. T.J. Grant for the lightweight title and Frank Mir vs. Josh Barnett, will be a big test to see if scoring big wins on FOX turns a guy into a draw. Hendersons last fight on PPV, against Frankie Edgar, was estimated at 190,000 buys. While Edgar has never been a draw, hes still far better known than Grant. Anything over 225,000 to me says that FOX has made Henderson into a bigger star.
Gustafsson, even with a six-fight winning streak and a FOX win over Shogun Rua, is not a draw either. Anything over 400,000 buys for that show would to me indicate strength in Jones, who hovered between 415,000 and 450,000 for Vitor Belfort and Lyoto Machida, who were both bigger names. Late hype trumps everything in UFC, particularly a grudge match component. If they can get that in, they can raise the number. Or if they can convince the public Gustafsson could win based on his size, or if Jones bad number with Belfort was based on his name value weakened over the pullout that killed UFC 151.
Velasquez vs. Dos Santos is an interesting one because Ive heard people within the company have opinions that vary greatly, from 400,000 to 800,000. Usually UFC numbers fall in at about the level most expect the week of the fight. Some shows, like Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche, were complete shots in the dark because people knew the buzz was very high, but didnt know the very real aspect of people who wouldnt buy a PPV fight with two women. GSP vs. Nick Diaz beat all projections based on Diazs antics at the end, but those were completely unpredictable and without them, the number almost surely would have fit into the usual level. To get to the high end of that range, its going to require the ability to hook fans on the trilogy aspect, because neither guy is going to trash talk the other, nor promote it as a grudge match. The issue with Velasquez is that he does do well regionally, but not nationally. Dos Santos is big in Brazil, but they dont have PPV there. Dos Santos never caught on in the U.S. as a draw, even with his likeable personality and knockout power. He scored a knockout in the first round of the most watched MMA fight ever in North America, but it didnt make him a top tier star.
GSP vs. Hendricks is likely the 700,000 buys that GSP did with Carlos Condit, even without adding another title fight to the show. Its not even worth speculating if they do a blow-out 20th because until the Silva vs. Weidman fight is over, theres no way of knowing who will be the champion or estimating if the champion could be ready on this date. And if it is Anderson Silva, does UFC, with so many PPV dates, put on a show that costly, or instead try and get two big shows out of two big draws.
GSP has never failed to draw, and once again, with all the talk of him having boring fights and never finishing, that has yet to play a noticeable factor in his numbers. His last fight, with Diaz, was the biggest of his career as far as interest went. Hendricks probably means as much as Condit, and if he talks a lot, plus being a KO guy, he could mean slightly more. It should be noted that Condit got a lot of coverage with all the hype for the Diaz fight with the well rated Prime Time shows on FX. An overlooked thing when it comes to PPV numbers going forward is how quickly Fox Sports 1 gets off the ground and the kind of ratings UFC is doing on it by later this year. Also, will UFC do a three-week Prime Time series and be able to get it on FS 1? Also, will the station be strong enough so early to where it gets enough viewers for such shows to make a difference? UFC hasnt done a Prime Time since Rousey vs. Carmouche on Fuel. Its expensive, and when its on Fuel, the value of it is far more limited than when it was on FX, let alone on Spike in years past.
Diaz made the difference between probably the 750,000 that UFC predicted for GSP vs. Diaz going in, and the 950,000 that it wound up doing.
Rousey vs. Tate is a complete unknown. The Rousey critics, some of who are still bitter that she didnt flop in February, have taken the view the success of her first show was a one-time thing having to do with it being a novelty. And its possible they are right. This fight has a few things going for it. First, the Ultimate Fighter build, although how valuable that is in large part depends on how quickly FS 1 gets off the ground as a viable station. The second is there may be heat coming off the show, and they may duplicate the grudge match component of the first fight, that few knew about, but this could go national. But there is still the dynamic that there are people who wont buy a womans fight on PPV simply because they are women. Whether the good side of this brings more to the table to override that, will be very interesting to see.
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UFCs debut in Winnipeg on 6/15, a city that has been a strong PPV market for years, sold out immediately based on the brand, given that the announced main event when tickets were put on sale was Renan Barao vs. Eddie Wineland for the interim bantamweight title.
The show was compared going in, as well as coming out, to UFCs Calgary debut last year. Both had so-so at best original lineups. Both sold out immediately due to pent up demand to see the product live. Both were plagued by injuries, although the Calgary show was snake bit like maybe two shows in company history.
But the reaction was very different. Before the Calgary show, there were constant complaints, from the media, and at least vocal fans, upset about refunds not being offered and the quality of the show. For UFC 161 In Winnipeg, there was none of that, even though of the three top matches advertised at first, four of the six fighters did not even appear. Injuries to Barao and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira canceled fights with Wineland and Mauricio Shogun Rua. The company pulled Wineland and Rua from the show, as they couldnt find a suitable replacement for Wineland. Chael Sonnen was willing to face Rua, but neither Sonnen nor Rua were thrilled about the fight at the last minute, and UFC also needed a main event for 8/17 in Boston, so Rua was out.
Still, even though the show was average at best, the Winnipeg audience just seemed happy to see UFC. A sellout crowd of 14,754 fans paid $3.15 million, breaking the all-time city indoor gate record of $1.8 million set for a Rolling Stones and an Elton John concert by a wide margin. Of those fans, more than 11,000 were there when the show started with the Dustin Pague vs. Yves Jabouin fight, and they were Brazil-like in their reactions. There were no complaints when it was over, and as far as the local media went, more questions regarding how quickly they would return.
Rashad Evans beat Dan Henderson via decision in a competitive main event, winning a split decision. I had Evans winning rounds two and three, which was the consensus. Our poll had 60% saying Evans won, 28% had Henderson and 12% had it a draw. Evans looked physically in the best shape of his career, coming off decision losses to Jon Jones and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, the latter in probably the most disappointing performance of his career. The match was pushed in the sense that the loser would be likely out of the title picture completely.
For Henderson, at 42, hes coming off straight split decision losses to Evans and Lyoto Machida. He wants to continue fighting. He didnt take any kind of a serious beating. But he has slowed down as far as movement goes. He was strong enough to keep Evans from taking him down, even though that was Evans game plan and he kept trying. He hit Evans a few times with his big shots. He never landed clean enough to end the fight, although Evans was in trouble in the first round. But Evans landed more, and clearly won the third round as Henderson got tired.
For Henderson, hes in a weird situation. Hes out of title contention. Hes one of the higher paid fighters in the company based on signing a sweet deal in 2010 with Strikeforce. Hes universally respected, because hes quiet, likeable, and epitomizes what people want out of a fighter, tough and fearlessness. Hes still, at his age, got a near granite chin and has home run power. Hes so well liked that even with it being well known hes on TRT, he doesnt take much criticism for it, partially because hes open and up front about it. Still, hes knocked out more and better people on TRT after the age of 36 against almost exclusively younger and bigger top fighters, than he did in what should have been his prime, when he faced a significantly lower caliber of opposition in a smaller weight class. Henderson is very much like a Rich Franklin, a name fighter who can headline, and who is popular, but hes not a major draw. And with his contract, if hes not headlining or being second from the top on PPV, his deal doesnt make a lot of economic sense. But he is a legend and hasnt taken the beatings, nor not been competitive in any fight, where one would want him to retire for his own good.
I thought the show built around Barao vs. Wineland and Evans vs. Henderson with a split build would have done poorly on PPV. In this case, the injury eliminating the title match in my mind helped the show, probably a lot, because all the focus was on two fighters that all the fans knew, as opposed to a main event with two guys that nobody knew. Still, it almost surely was, and probably by a significant margin, the lowest PPV number of the year.
The ratings for the prelims were the third lowest for prelims on FX since the deal went into effect, with a 0.69 rating and 968,000 viewers. Its also lower than any prelims that were on Spike. It didnt do well in the demos either, with numbers that resemble TNA more than UFC, a 0.63 in Males 18-34, almost shockingly low for UFC on FX in that demo, and 1.10 in Males 35-49. The younger and more fad oriented fan base skipped this show. The Stanley Cup playoffs on NBC Sports beat them by more than four times with viewers and more than five times with ratings, and they didnt even beat the College Baseball World Series on ESPN.
The other major story on the show was Roy Nelson. Nelson, who turns 37 this week, was coming off three straight first round knockouts. When he came out in Winnipeg, for the first time in his career, he really was almost the Dusty Rhodes like fat guy that the public empathized with. He got an absolute superstar reaction. But then, underdog Stipe Miocic outboxed him for three rounds, and Nelson blew up fast trying to keep up. His attempts at offense was mostly missing big shots by a wide margin as Miocic was easily able to evade him.
In hindsight, Nelson taking a fight six weeks after his 4/27 knockout win over Cheick Kongo was a mistake. After peaking your body for a date, its very difficult to come back and do it a second time. Hed had so much success that he figured he could score another first round knockout, but wasnt in shape if it went into round two.
Worse, it was the last fight of his contract. He had turned down a significantly better money deal sometime back, saying he was insulted by the offer. He was offered an extension before this fight, and turned it down. With four straight wins and a fan base that seemed to expand in the past year more than the waistband of his pants, he looked to go in with some leverage. The story of him as an unlikely title contender would be a good one. But the loss, not just losing but the way he lost, derailed things. UFC will offer him a deal. Hes still worth something but his value was hurt. The positive he has is that hes the kind of a guy that Spike and Bellator should want, so in that sense he still has leverage to where one would think he can get himself a solid deal. Hes got a name, genuine popularity, and if hes in shape, should beat most of Bellators heavyweights. But Nelson is very much unpredictable when it comes to his decisions.
The show was almost the opposite of the previous weeks show in Fortaleza, Brazil. That show had ten finishes in 12 fights, tying the record for most submissions. This show had ten decisions in 12 fights, tying the record for most decisions. The bonuses were true no-brainers, in the sense there was only one submission (James Krause) and one knockout (Shawn Jordan). Krause vs. Sam Stout got the best fight bonus, There was no blow away obvious best fight, but there were a number of good ones, Pague vs. Jabouin, Edwin Figueroa vs Roland Delorme, Stout vs. Krause, Alexis Davis vs. Rosi Sexton, and even the two top fights, Miocic vs. Nelson and Henderson vs. Evans, that could have gotten best fight. All bonuses were $50,000.