Come on. QRJ vs. Tito is a more compelling fight than anything the Ultimate has put on this past year other than maybe Rousey vs. Carmouche.
Anyway, essays.
A lot has been said since the rating came out on Sunday for the eighth installment of UFC on FOX.
There have been excuses given or people using the number to say the sky is falling given it was the least watched network broadcast of MMA in history, falling barely below the levels of last years two summer shows. However, on the flip side, it was the most watched show in the Adults 18-49 age group of anything on either cable or network TV that night with a 1.1 rating (which means, to advertisers, it won the night overall, and it obviously won in the key demos, Males 18-34 and 18-49) of the more then 300 different television shows that night.
For FOX and advertisers, that means it won the night over every program on television, cable or broadcast, even though in total viewers it fell way below CBS. It was also ahead in the 18-49 demo, and doubled Males 18-34 from what FOX usually does on Saturday nights.
The show did a 1.5 rating, slightly above the two bad shows last summer. Its not a good prime time rating for FOX, but there were genuine highlights, and it was more than I was expecting out of the show. The audience of 2.38 million was the lowest for a live network MMA broadcast. The two bad ones last year, the Jim Miller vs. Nate Diaz show (2.42 million viewers) and Shogun Rua vs. Brandon Vera (2.44 million viewers) were slightly higher in overall viewers. The former was on the same night as a Mayweather fight and the latter went against the Olympics, so really, this number was the least impressive to date throwing out card comparisons. We did hear from those who were disappointed in the rating internally, feeling that a title match and Ellenberger vs. MacDonald should have been stronger than Shogun vs. Vera, which was hardly a main event, but was sold somewhat effectively based on telling a story of unachieving Vera having a shot to get a big career win, which played out well as the fight was competitive.
But going on, most expectations were that Saturdays show would be the lowest rated of the series.
It also did a 1.5 in the Male 18-34 demo, making it the highest rated sports show of the weekend on broadcast or cable in that demo and it finished in eighth place for the week in that demo out of all the shows in network prime time. The show did a 1.7 in Males 35-49. It was 28 percent higher than what Fox did between April and June in the time slot in 18-49s, and more than double the adult males as compared to usual FOX programming on Saturday nights. It was up 57% in Adults 18-49 from what baseball does. Baseball, which usually does about 3 million viewers, beats the audience overall because its so much stronger past the age of 45.
We dont have exact numbers, but relatively close is Liz Carmouche vs. Jessica Andrade doing 1.68 million viewers, Robbie Lawler vs. Bobby Voelker doing 1.77 million viewers, Rory MacDonald vs. Jake Ellenberger doing 2.30 million and Demetrious Johnson vs. John Moraga doing 3.09 million.
The prelims, from 5-8 p.m. did a 0.73 rating and 904,000 viewers, down from 0.85 and 1.06 million viewers for the 4/20 show, but that was a much stronger card. While UFC live programming on FOX averages 1.3 million viewers, that is between 8-10 p.m. Of the four sets of prelims for FOX specials that have aired on FX (previously the prelims were on Fuel), it beat the Diaz vs. Miller slightly for third. That show did a 0.77 in Males 18-34 and 0.97 in Males 35-49. An interesting note on the prelims is that the actual peak rating came during the early part of third fight, Darion Cruickshank vs. Yves Edwards. The audience grew at the start, with strong growth during Robbie Lawler vs. Trevor Smith. But the audience fell off as the Cruickshank vs. Edwards fight ended, dropped a little for Melvin Guillard vs. Mac Danzig, but then fell heavily during Danny Castillo vs. Tim Means, before picking up for Michael Chiesa vs. Jorge Masvidal.
A year ago, when the third UFC on FOX show did barely half the rating of the second, I thought it was a horrible sign. UFC had not established a history on FOX and every show had declined from the prior one, with the third show doing roughly half the audience of the second. The third show was the weakest show, and a significant drop was expected, but the audience being cut in half was a surprise. But the decline leveled off and it looks like UFCs baseline on FOX is 2.4 million viewers, but with strong numbers in the adult male demos, which is the key thing since MMA on network is all about ad sales specifically targeted to the the adult male demo.
But were now coming up on nearly two years since the one minute long Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos heavyweight title fight, the most heavily promoted UFC bout on television in history, was viewed by more than 9 million viewers.
What has been learned is this. The first show was an aberration. UFC never planned on putting matches that could be expected to do big numbers on PPV on FOX. The FOX game was, at first, at least in theory, to do No. 1 contender fights to lead to the winner challenging for the title on PPV. Show No. 2, where Rashad Evans beat Phil Davis to set up the Jon Jones fight, and Chael Sonnen beat Michael Bisping to set up the Anderson Silva fight, was the perfect execution. Luckily for UFC, the guy who would have drawn the most money in the title fight won each time, and this show was a huge risk of two sure-fire winners on PPV. But the show did 4.7 million viewers, particularly well in the target demo, which for a FOX Saturday night was a success. The challengers winning, perhaps not spectacularly or really very exciting fights, but it was still wins before a lot of people, probably helped two major PPV shows.
Ratings are going to vary greatly based on the time of year and the card. This was a weak card marquee wise. The fact it did less than similarly weak shows years back on CBS is more because MMA wasnt on television nearly as much. In fact, Strikeforce and Elite XC on CBS averaged a 2.36 rating and 3.79 million viewers, while UFC on FOX thus far has averaged a 2.15 rating and 3.74 million viewers. The difference is so much MMA product has made all but the biggest events less special.
Its the same reason all individual shows, whether its UFC or Bellator, arent doing what they once did. Thats what is going to happen with so much product. The biggest shows on PPV are still doing well, which is the best you can hope for when the amount of television product increases so much. Thats the same as in any sport, you hope for the big games, playoffs, etc. to be as strong as ever and the weekly stuff, with the exception of the NFL, cant compare with years ago because there is so much more of it available.
As time went on, FOX was also used to promote championship matches in the lower weight classes. Benson Henderson headlined shows against Nate Diaz and Gilbert Melendez, for example. Neither match was going to do big numbers on PPV, but for television, they were strong main events.
There is a clamor and argument from some, given that in the major sports, you can see the big matches on free television, that MMA is turning itself into a niche sport by continuing to use PPV for its biggest attractions. A lot can happen in the future to change, but as things stand in 2013, UFC could not economically survive with that thinking. They arent getting enough in TV rights to run the company at the level it is at. And television doesnt pay enough for the top drawing fighters to get anywhere near the kind of purse they are used to. With the first Velasquez vs. Dos Santos, UFC viewed that fight as a lost leader to establish the relationship. Now, if UFC is able to get its television package rights fees when the current deal is out moved from $100 million to $300 million, the economics change greatly. But if that can even happen, its probably not until the current contract expires in 2017. Decision making at that time will depend on the economics years from now, which nobody can predict. Also, a major point is missed. Being on PPV makes things more important and for a big show, encourages a different type of viewership. UFC did a study several years back and found that the average home watching a PPV had eight viewers. I have no data to contradict that but it on the surface sounded high. Still, another completely unscientific study on our web site found the number as five viewers on average per home. Im guessing as a general rule with UFC not as hot, the number would be smaller. But at five viewers, the biggest fights were drawing as many viewers as all but the biggest television shows and it is likely more people saw UFC 100 than any free show in history except the one minute of Velasquez vs. Dos Santos.
Granted, no matter what the number is, more people would see GSP vs. Nick Diaz on free TV than PPV, but the importance to them would be different. If something has to be paid for and friends gather, what they see becomes a bigger deal. WWE is the perfect example. The total audience for a WWE PPV show is minuscule compared to Raw the next night. But something big that happens on PPV resonates with the audience, and is far more remembered over time, than anything on Raw. Similarly, at the end of the year, in either MMA or U.S. pro wrestling match of the year awards, the PPV bouts always do better than the free TV bouts even though far more people see the latter.
The idea should be something along the lines of any match that can do a certain number, say 350,000 buys, is better to do on PPV in 2013.
In 2013, UFC, in what I call a lucky year because they havent gotten killed with injuries that eliminate major matches as in the prior two years, if the current lineups hold up (and odds are they wont), will have had nine shows headlined by matches that fall into that category. They have 13 PPV slots, so they dont even have enough to headline every PPV. Barring injuries ruining the shows coming up, this will be the companys best year on PPV since 2010 and the Brock Lesnar era.
What has also become the case, now more than ever, as shown by the huge swings in numbers both for PPV and television ratings, is the public picks and chooses. This is the natural evolution with the promoting of so many events per year. The result is the UFC brand itself means far less than the few big name fighters when it comes to business, just as has been the case in boxing. In fact, you can study boxing and probably see UFCs future, although boxing itself has copied UFC by working to provide more loaded shows. You can put on a PPV with well known names on top and do 135,000 to 150,000 buys, like Dan Henderson vs. Rashad Evans did in June. But the major events are doing as well as ever. No, people arent doing Brock Lesnar numbers on a regular basis because there is no Brock Lesnar on the roster. But GSP did his biggest numbers of his career for a show he headlined on his own in his last fight. Anderson Silva didnt do his career best numbers with Chris Weidman, but he did his career best numbers for a fight with someone who was not established to the public as a star as far as a singular main event. His only bigger numbers were the two Chael Sonnen fights, because Sonnen was so great at building interest, a Forrest Griffin fight (which had a B.J. Penn title match as the advertised main event) when Griffin was one of the most popular and best known fighters, and a Vitor Belfort fight, again against someone who was a well known fighter who was a great striker.
The same thing with television. This FOX show was down 36 percent in viewership and 32 percent in ratings from the last one. The show was held in April, so the NFL promotion aspect isnt a factor. But the 4/20 show was a great television card. While Benson Henderson and Gilbert Melendez probably couldnt draw 350,000 buys on pay-per-view, even with that undercard, it was a great show for television.
Demetrious Johnson vs. John Moraga shows that just having a title match isnt going to do well when its a challenger nobody knows, and the undercard doesnt have any really big names. Johnson was coming off a win on FOX. Rory MacDonald was coming off what appeared to be a star making performance, between the build-up and then beating B.J. Penn. A key point of this rating is that MacDonald seemed like a big deal in December, then beat Penn handily on TV before millions of viewers. But he didnt gain as much from it as many would have anticipated.
UFC numbers will be significantly bigger during football season. When FOX has that huge audience every Sunday of adult men, the prime UFC audience, to promote the day and matches to, the shows are a success. But the April show was proof football season is a big deal, since it didnt do as well as weaker December or January shows. But it also showed that it doesnt matter if you have a show people want to see, UFC can draw.
Like everything in television, success is not determined by hardcore fans, but the ability to draw in average sports fans. You need names that the audience is aware of. The two shows in December and January, which were both ratings successes, featured Penn and Rampage Jackson, names who have drawn big on PPV in the past. Those type of fighters are valuable, but the roster isnt filled with them. An Evans or Chael Sonnen would have helped this show, but Sonnen vs. Shogun Rua was needed for Boston. Thats a product of having so many shows in a short period of time, that there are so many masters to serve that you get a show like this on FOX.
The live attendance told the same tale. Even with Johnson, the champion headlining, being from near Seattle, the locals who were there cheered him like crazy. But there werent a ton of them. The first time UFC went to Seattles Key Arena, it drew a sellout 14,212 fans. The second show, on Dec. 8, drew another sellout of 14,412. The first was for a Spike Fight Night and second was for an NBC show, so this was a great UFC market.
Like the ratings, this didnt do close to that, with 8,967 fans, 6,619 paid and a gate of $700,081. The paid was 6,500 more than a week out which tells you just how little late interest there was in the market, and how they didnt even do heavily discounted last week tickets or a significant amount of papering as they often do if the advance is weak. They were giving away tickets at some late autograph sessions but those numbers indicate there was no heavy papering done.
Its not necessarily that flyweights cant headline. Johnson headlined a January show on FOX that did well, but he had Jackson for support. Moraga became the first fighter in UFC history to go from being in the opening match on his previous show to the main event. That, in a nutshell, was part of the problem. People didnt know him. All of his prior UFC fights aired on Facebook to audiences of less than 50,000 worldwide, meaning less than that in the U.S. It doesnt even compare with the lowest rated Fuel shows.
Even though MacDonald and Ellenberger were legitimate welterweight top five fighters and were really the main event to most fans, people obviously didnt see it as a strong main event match. The originally scheduled Liz Carmouche vs. Miesha Tate womens fight may have helped the ratings. But with Tate pulled to coach Ultimate Fighter, Carmouche faced Jessica Andrade, a Brazilian who had never fought in UFC.
As far as the show went, it was a mixed bag. The small amount of fans there for the entire show loved the two Facebook fights with bantamweight Yaotzin Meza tapping out local fighter John Albert, and Justin Salas in a wild brawl, apparently ending the 16-year career of Aaron Riley. Riley posted on Twitter after the fight that he was retiring.
FX had a strong second fight in Ed Hermans controversial win over Trevor Smith via decision; which got the best fight bonus. Jorge Masvidals submission with one second left in the second round over Michael Chiesa was another fight the crowd loved. Chiesa, partially because he was from Washington, was the second most popular fighter on the show, behind only Johnson.
But Germaine de Randamie vs. Julie Kedzie spent too much time in the clinch to entertain the audience. Darion Cruickshank vs. Yves Edwards looked good on paper but neither ever really turned it on.
As far as the FOX fights went, the story was MacDonald vs. Ellenberger. Dana White minced no words when it was over.
I wasnt too excited about the fight, he said. When you get these fights where guys talk s***, the fights always suck. For Ellenberger to say hes (MacDonald) not top ten and then not go out and prove it, Ellenberger did nothing, his punch stats were like zero.
He shot in the second round. He literally did nothing. I think Rory didnt do anything to finish or put a stamp on it. Thats why people booed and thats why people were not too happy. It was the shows most highly anticipated fight. The winner could have easily been plugged into a championship fight.
If the fight that had the most interest delivered, the FOX show would have been good. But it didnt, and even with the strong showing of Johnson, the show felt lackluster when it was over.
Johnson ended the night with a unique distinction. Hes the only champion on the roster to have beaten the current top four contenders in his class in current UFC ratings, Joseph Benavidez, John Dodson, Ian McCall and now Moraga.
That stat, combined with the way Johnson controlled the entire fight against Moraga, he came across like someone who has no competition in his class.
But in reality, he was rocked several times by Dodson in his last fight. He also had a draw in his first match with Ian McCall, that he could easily have lost.
Benavidez, considered by almost everyone as the current top contender, faces Jussier Formiga on 9/4 in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. That will likely decide the next opponent for Johnson. But if Johnson beats Benavidez a second time, he will legitimately have cleaned out a division that lacks depth.
Johnson himself threw out a challenge to do a superfight against the bantamweight champion.
The controversy after the fight was if MacDonald (15-1) was partially responsible for stinking up the joint, or if he executed a winning game plan, as he claimed. There are realities about winning vs. become a star, and he came out of this far less of a star than he came in.
He won the fight, but he really didnt help himself in the process. Most fans arent clamoring to see him fight again any time soon. Nor are they now waiting for him to get a title shot.
But the lasting negative impression will be mostly forgotten if he puts on an exciting fight next time out.
While MacDonalds work in winning the fight can be defended due to the result, for Jake Ellenberger, there are nothing but questions.
Ellenberger, sat there and said almost nothing at the press conference moments after White insulted his performance. He gave no real explanation past that he wasnt himself.
White surmised freezing under the pressure. Its a real mystery. Ellenberger is no neophyte. It was his 36th pro fight, and hes main evented twice on prior UFC shows. He beat Diego Sanchez in one of the wildest fights in recent years, and has knocked out Nate Marquardt and Jake Shields.
Ellenberger is going to have a lot of second guessing in his future. His offensive output was so lacking that he not just lost, but may have made himself a risk to be put on a main card. And it wasnt as if he was overwhelmed, as with a little more aggression, he could have won the fight.
The closest thing to a welterweight star made was Robbie Lawler. The 12-year journeyman fought his first ten fights as a welterweight, before moving up to middleweight at the age of 22.
Now 31, hes moved back down, and won his last two fights via impressive knockouts over Josh Koscheck and Bobby Voelker.
Lawler came in as a usually entertaining fighter with a big knockout punch. But he was not looked on as a title contender, particularly considering how much depth the division has.
He appeared to be more going down the path of Chris Lytle, who had a long UFC career, picked up lots of bonuses, made a name for himself, but was never in a serious title hunt.
But the nature of this win on a night when two higher ranked contenders faltered, and its Lawler who people will likely be more excited about seeing in big fights.
An interesting note on the show regarded timing. A lot of fights went to decision, and with the exception of a very brief interview with Johnson after the main event, no interviews were done. This hurt, as without interviews, some of the wins, most notably Lawler and Carmouches, didnt come across as big as they could have with more time and emphasis on the finish.
But timing was an issue on FX and even more so on FOX. Its one thing for the local news to go on late because a sports event that does good ratings goes long. Its another when its a show that wasnt expected to do as well.