The lessons of UFCs sixth event on FOX is that it pays to be advertised during football season, and perhaps even better, during the NFL playoffs.
When Demetrious Johnson vs. John Dodson for the flyweight title was announced as the main event for the 1/26 show in Chicago at the United Center, it didnt sound good. The title was new. Johnson and Dodson hardly felt like big show headliners. They did have Rampage Jackson, a former major draw on the undercard, so in a sense the dynamic was similar to the successful 12/8 show. That card had Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz for the lightweight title, but that title is far more over then the flyweight belt, Henderson has had several main events on big shows over the years and Diaz is a name fighter who looked tremendous on FOX months earlier. They also had B.J. Penn, a similar-level star as Jackson, also at the end of his career.
But the show was a success in just about every way. The show did a 2.43 rating, way over nearly everyones predictions, drawing 4,219,000 viewers. It was the highest rated show on television, either network or cable, in all the key demos (People 18-34, People 18-49, Men 18-34, Men 18-49). Overall they did a 3.02 in Males 18-34 and 3.00 in Males 35-49. The average viewer age was 36, ten years younger than FOXs usual average for prime time programming, which is considered a positive in television. The 2.09 overall 18-34 rating was more than double that of any other show on television that night, and roughly four times that of the U.S. Figure Skating Championships on NBC head-to-head. The show did a 1.17 in Women 18-49, which is far more than would be expected for a Saturday night show.
The numbers were a little down from the prior show, which did a 2.5 rating, 4.39 million viewers, 3.5 in Males 18-34 (third highest rated show in that demo of the week on network television behind only the NFL) and 4.5 in Males 35-49. The FX prelims did a 0.90 rating and 1,208,000 viewers, virtually identical with the 0.90 and 1,209,000 viewers the Dec. 8 show did.
The attendance was a near sellout 16,091 fans, of which about 14,000 were paid with a gate of $1,270,000.
From a business standpoint, the success of the December show in the Male 18-49 demo, which is what most of the advertisers are looking for, has strengthened the advertising base. The show sold out all its ad inventory at just over $100,000 per spot, significantly more than either major league baseball or college football (reportedly $75,000) get in a similar time slot on FOX.
There were 16 major national advertisers including Coca Cola, Geico, Chrysler, DirecTV and Sprint to go along with UFC regulars at Bud Light, along with a number of movies.
The goals of the show were to establish the flyweight title and make whoever came out as champion as a star. Like with Benson Henderson last month, its hard to say how much the perception of Johnson changed with so many viewers seeing his fight. We dont have the match-by-match numbers yet, but the card showed strong consistent growth from start-to-finish, with the main event doing 5.2 million viewers on FOX. It would tie for the 14th most watched MMA fight ever on U.S. television just based on those numbers. If you include the Spanish language viewership on Fox Deportes, it should end up 12th or higher. Johnson and Dodson have a fast, entertaining fight with Johnson coming across as a super fast, technical and innovative fighter who survived three second round knockdowns to take the decision by winning the last two rounds.
The fight was not without its controversy. The scores were 49-46, 48-47 and 48-47. In the fourth round, with Johnson down on two cards, he landed a knee to Dodsons head while Dodson had his hand on the ground. Whether you do or dont like the rule, the strategy is that you dont have to protect your head from kicks or knees in that position because they are illegal. Dodson was nailed, and shaken up. He was given a time out to recover, but Johnson was not docked a point by referee John McCarthy. It was a close call and clearly not intentional, and I wouldnt have taken a point away. But the reaction was almost split 50/50 on the call, and Dana White publicly said he thought a point should have been taken away. If it had, it goes from a win by Johnson to a majority draw. Still, there was no major controversy about who won, given our poll had 83% for Johnson, 9% for Dodson and 8% had it a draw.
While most felt the real main event was Jackson vs. Glover Teixeira, the fact was the audience did continue to increase for the title match, something the vast majority did not think would happen.
But when it was over, the star of the show was Anthony Pettis. Pettis, the former WEC lightweight champion, beat Benson Henderson for the title at the end of 2010 via decision in taking the final round with a springboard kick to the head that is on the all-time highlight reel. Pettis stopped Cowboy Donald Cerrone with a liver kick in 2:35. What made that notable is that Cerrone had 54 professional fighters, between kickboxing and MMA, and he had only been stopped once by submission, and never by strikes. Pettis beat him handily from the start, including delivering another blow where he springboarded off the cage and nailed Cerrone with a flying knee. When it was over, Pettis did a great interview, and challenged for a title match. Dana White said Pettis would get the shot at the winner of the 4/20 Henderson vs. Gilbert Melendez match.
Jackson had talked all week that this was his final UFC fight. He had a good three-round fight. He showed up in a lot better condition than in prior fights, and did well standing with Teixeira as both men traded hard shots for most of the three rounds. Teixeira was able to take Jackson down at will, which was the surprise of the fight, and clearly won all three rounds in most eyes. While it was a good win for Teixeira, he didnt come out of the fight with the impression that you cant wait to see him against Jon Jones, which was the best case scenario of the match.
Ricardo Lamas beat Erik Koch, and established himself as a top featherweight contender. In an undercard match that also featured featherweight contenders, Clay Guida, debuting in the weight class, managed to take down Hatsu Hioki and keep him there much of the fight to win a split decision. Guida held Hioki down but wasnt able to get much meaningful offense in. Partially due to him being from Chicago, or perhaps largely, Guida was the most popular fighter on the show in the building. There were those who expected that Guida, just about the most popular mid-level fighter in the company, would have blown his status and been booed because of his performance in a boring main event with Gray Maynard last time in. He wasnt booed at all, but as a home town guy it maybe not be a fair test of how hes viewed overall. This wasnt an exciting fight. All three rounds were close so the decision could have gone either way, but our poll had 48% for Guida, 42% for Hioki, and 11% had it a draw.
The $50,000 bonuses went to Johnson and Dodson for best fight, Pettis for best knockout and Ryan Bader for best submission.
Judge Jose Linares of U.S. District Court in New Jersey on 1/25 ruled against Eddie Alvarez in his attempt to get an injunction that would allow him to sign a UFC contract and debut on the 4/27 show in Newark, NJ, at The Prudential Center.
Bellator had filed suit against Alvarez on 1/3, and Alvarez countered on 1/15, asking for a judge to rule him free to sign his UFC deal.
This has become a landmark case because they are arguing over what constitutes the right to match terms, which is in the standard contract of most top UFC and Bellator fighters. Fighters have signed with the belief that if their contract expires, and they can get a better deal elsewhere, either they can take it or, bring it back to their current employer, who would match the deal, which in most cases would be fine, given theyd make the same money either way.
But Alvarez and his attorneys argued that even though Bellator essentially copied the UFC contract verbatim, except putting Bellator in the place of UFC, and Spike in the place of FOX, that it was not a match on two grounds. The first is that FOX is more valuable to fight on than Spike, so it boosts the fighters career due to better exposure and they can get more money from sponsors. The second is that even if Bellator matches in the contract the PPV bonuses Alvarez was offered by UFC, thats essentially meaningless since theyve never run PPVs, and even if they did, the bonuses wouldnt be close. The bonus structure, where Alvarez would get $1 per buy from 200,000 to 399,999; $2 per buy from 400,000 to 599,000 and $2.50 per buy for 600,000 buys or more, mean nothing in reality from Bellator, which really has no chance of doing 200,000 buys.
Linares ruled that to grant the injunction, he would have to believe Alvarez had a strong chance of winning the case. While he didnt dismiss Alvarezs chances of eventually winning, he concluded that there was not a reasonable probability of success. He also ruled that Alvarez would not suffer irreparable harm if he wasnt granted the injunction, which would delay his debut until after the 4/27 show. The idea of the 4/27 show as his debut is that the Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen fight should be expected to do 600,000 buys, meaning Alvarez would make $600,000 in bonus money that he may not be able to get if he debuts on a less successful show. Alvarezs contract gave him a PPV bonus for his first UFC PPV fight, as well as for any championship fights he would have while under the eight-fight deal.
Linares wrote that to rule in his favor would require the judge to make speculative assumptions about what might or might not happen as a result of his participating in the April 27 event. Based on the record before it, the Court cannot make such an assumption.
Linares said that the difference between his appearing on FOX instead of Spike may be ruled by the judge or a jury that it was not an equal match. But he wrote that he could not at this point grant the injunction based on that and thus Alvarez didnt show a reasonable probability of success in the case.
Linares said he also could not rule that Bellator would breach the contract because they would be unable to run a PPV show. Bellator maintained that had Alvarez signed, they would have planned a 3/30 PPV show headlined by Michael Chandler vs. Alvarez for the lightweight title, but the deadline has passed to organize a show on that date.
Alvarezs options at this point are to either sign an eight fight deal with Bellator, to continue his case, but in doing so, he will have to remain out of action until it is settled, or sit out until 10/18, at which point the one-year matching period ends and he would be able to sign with UFC.
Bellator attorneys used an affidavit by Roy Langbord, an attorney who helped with the start of PPVs for Showtime boxing, and has also worked as a consultant for DirecTV and various promoters and has also produced shows. He argued that Spike has a background in airing MMA and FOX does not, and that it was Spikes telecasts that built the popularity of the sport. He also argued that the Spike core demographic of young men is a better fit toward potential MMA PPV buyers and Spike is a station where MMA fans would more likely look to see MMA. He noted that HBO, which has far fewer viewers and a smaller potential audience that either Spike or FOX, has been the television platform for the most successful PPVs. He also argued that Alvarez was only guaranteed one fight on FOX, while Bellator has guaranteed that all of his fights will air on Spike, which he claimed was a superior commitment. He also argued that the idea Bellator, Spike and Viacom couldnt market a PPV as well or better than FOX is incorrect. His claim is Spike was a better platform because virtually every home that gets Spike has PPV capability, while many homes that get FOX dont have PPV capabilities. But thats ridiculous because at best it would make them even, because virtually every home that gets PPV, and gets Spike, also gets FOX, and the viewership numbers for UFC shows on FOX are far larger than numbers Bellator can get on Spike. He also noted that UFC as a general rule did stronger PPV business while on Spike, which is true, but the decline also occurred while with Spike and the average went up this past year. He also claimed the next UFC PPV on 2/23 (Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche, actually the next show is on 2/2) he does not believe will do 200,000 buys.
The judge must not have done his homework if hes agreeing that Spike TV and FOX are the same platforms, said Dana White. Theyre so fucking far apart, its not even funny. Its two different fucking universes. I saw in their argument where they said, `Oh, Spike launches pay-per-views. No, actually they dont. Thats not true. We did. What theyre doing is, theyre saying not as much Spike, as Viacom, has been saying, `We built the UFC. No you fucking did not. No you did not, you arrogant pompous Jackass. You did not build the UFC.
White also couldnt understand how the judge couldnt see that matching the PPV percentage is not matching given the track record of UFC on PPV as compared with Bellator and all other MMA companies.
Its ridiculous, White said. I dont know how a court or a judge couldnt see that. And even if they said, `You know what, lets really dive into this thing. Lets see what the lowest PPV is the UFC has ever done. Lets see if we can find out what a low number is, what a high number is, and lets see if we can find a right number that Eddie Alvarez should be paid. Theres got to be some middle ground there. Say, okay, depending on what PPV he would have been on, this is maybe what he should have been paid. Find a middle ground, and pay the kid what he shouldve been paid. Theres nothing wrong with this whole situation as long as Eddie Alvarez gets paid.
He then said, You better think long and had if youre a manager or a fighter and youre about to do a deal with Bellator. Think long and hard about how you negotiate that contract.
The judge knows nothing about the TV business, or the PPV business. When they said Spike was equivalent to FOX, the guy should have shut the case down right there.
Itd be one thing if they were fighting to save their champion, but hes not even their champion and his contract is over. They have the right to match. So match the money. Its impossible for them to match our TV. Our prelims pull bigger numbers than their live fucking main events on cable, and their trying to say theyre the equivalent of being on FOX.
As far as Spike as a PPV platform, White said, You know Dixie from TNA. They love Dixie at Spike. She worked her ass off to build her business. I have nothing negative to say about her. They were on Spike. They get 1.8 million viewers and they cant sell a PPV.
White said they should just be fair to Alvarez, saying Viacom has the money to pay him, and that if they take the lowest UFC PPV number, and the highest, come to an average middle ground, and agree to pay him based on that number, then its a fair match.
They have the money to pay him. And they do have a right to match. I made an offer. They need to match it. Then people say, well that number doesnt make sense for them. The money Lorenzo was paying fighters didnt make sense when we were $44 million in the hole, but thats how you start a business. The whole thing is so fucked up. They can have him. Just pay him what hes supposed to be paid. You want to get into this business, welcome to the promoting business, pay the kid his money.