Theres a saying in baseball about how you cant tell the players without a program. Well, this week, the story is you cant keep up with all the events of the weekend without a guide.
From a PPV standpoint, there are two key events, the Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Saul Canelo Alvarez boxing match on 9/14, promoted by Showtime, and WWEs Night of Champions the next night.
With industry predictions of 1.75 million buys, Mayweather vs. Alvarez is expected to be the biggest PPV event of any kind in North America since the 2007 Mayweather vs. Oscar de la Hoya fight.
The event has been brilliantly promoted on 24/7 All Access shows, where Mayweather is portrayed as an immensely gifted fast-liver, up all night, surrounded by women and friends, really the modern reality of the 80s Ric Flair character, only magnified twenty times over. Alvarez is the Mexican hope. Hes portrayed as surrounded by a crew that is interested in nothing but his next fight, training, eating and dieting in seclusion at Big Bear, with nothing on his mind but the biggest fight of his life.
Hes bigger, stronger and younger, but hes slower and its his first time at this level of pressure and notoriety, while Mayweather is the older veteran who has been living it for years. They are fighting at 152 pounds, more than Mayweather has ever fought at. Still, Mayweather is a -270 favorite. Most in boxing think Alvarez really doesnt have a good chance to win. The match will sell because the Mexican community in the U.S. and Mexico believes he can. What Alvarez has going for him is Mayweather is 36, and he is 23. The belief is the odds will get lower, with a lot of Mayweather bettors figuring to wait until just before fight time with the idea theyll be able to get more favorable odds.
The fight has been heavily promoted with Oscar De La Hoya, the man who really made Mayweather into the star he is. It was Mayweathers beating De La Hoya in 2007 that took Mayweather from a 300,000 buy PPV guy to a seven figure guy, since their 2007 fight break through at a level that no boxing match had since the big fights involving Mike Tyson, Evander Holyfield and Lennox Lewis years ago. It was De La Hoyas star power that brought people to the table, but Mayweather became a tremendous heel antagonist, who then won the fight. Since Alvarez doesnt speak English, De La Hoya has been doing much of his English promos, with the storyline that de la Hoya has the book on how to beat Mayweather, almost did in their first fight, and is teaching it to Alvarez. De la Hoya wont be at the fight on Saturday, as it was announced on Tuesday he was voluntarily checking himself into a treatment facility. De la Hoya went through rehab in 2011 for cocaine and alcohol.
Its not going to be quite the world stands still like in the heyday of Muhammad Ali against Joe Frazier and George Foreman, or something close to that, like the Tyson fights. Mayweather vs. De La Hoya was the closest thing to that in recent times, and did more money due to improved technology, than any fight in history.
When the fight was announced, promoters were talking about breaking the 2007 record of 2.45 million buys. Based on feeling right now, that would be an extreme longshot, but it also should be noted that the 2007 fight was not figured to do anywhere close to what it did (most in boxing were thinking a little over 1.5 million, thinking that was the max for a non-heavyweight title fight). But it was that fight that exemplified the power of a series of compelling countdown shows that draw a big audience.
The live gate of $19,905,000 will break the all-time boxing record of $18,l419,200 set by the 2007 fight. There are also more locations signed up for closed circuit than ever before, more advertising than ever before, $2 million in sponsorship of the show (the De la Hoya vs. Mayweather fight had $800,000), and sponsors earmarked millions in TV ads, heavily during recent sports programming.
The show is also more patterned after a UFC card, where, instead of having a big main event, thinking that will draw the money and skimping on the undercard, the idea is to present the best show possible. The key No. 2 match is Lucas Matthyssse (34-2, 32 knockouts), the WBA and WBC light welterweight champion, against Danny Garcia (26-0, 16 KOs), the interim WBA and WBC champion. The feeling is that the winner could be the next opponent for Mayweather, if Mayweather gets by Alvarez. It would be tougher if Alvarez wins, just because there is a significant size difference between he and these two.
Third from the top is a match of top ten junior middleweights with Ishe Smith (25-5, 11 knockouts) and Carlos Molina (21-5-2, 6 knockouts).
But a look at the next weeks major activities:
TNA NO SURRENDER: The usual weekly Spike TV show is getting a PPV themed name, taped in St. Louis at the Chaifetz Arena.
The first show will have the semifinals and the finals of the BFG series, with Austin Aries vs. A.J. Styles and Magnus vs. Bobby Roode. The two winners meet later in the night, with the winner getting the Bound for Glory shot at the TNA title on 10/20 in San Diego. Also on the first hour of the show is the TNA title match with Bully Ray defending against Ken Anderson.
The two-hour time constraints hurt because thats four major singles matches. Aries vs. Styles was one of TNAs best matches this year in their meeting in the BFG series. Styles is being pushed as the favorite, although the storyline of him not being able to get a title shot for a year based on a loss last year has been dropped. Logically, Ray should defend against a babyface. Aries has been pushed the last few weeks more as a face, but his getting a shot would come out of left field. Magnus was being pushed as the rising star early in the BFG series.
Mickie James vs. ODB for the Knockouts title was scheduled for St. Louis. Right now its scheduled for the second show. If there is a tag title match on the second show, the champs, James Storm & Gunner, have dropped non-title bouts to both Wes Brisco & Garett Bischoff and Frankie Kazarian & Bobby Roode, so they could face either or do a three-way program.
CMLL 80TH ANNIVERSARY SHOW: A full story on the build for this show and how to watch it is in the CMLL story in this issue.
BELLATOR 99: The start of weekly Friday night shows at 9 p.m. on Spike begins this week from Temecula, CA, with four featherweight tournament fights, and one light heavyweight tournament fight.
Shahbulat Shamhalaev has pulled out of the featherweight tournament. He asked out of the fight because he needed to take care of his sick father. Hes being replaced by former Strikeforce fighter Justin Wilcox.
The show this week features a light heavyweight tournament first round fight with former UFC fighters Vladimir Matyushenko and Houston Alexander facing off. The featherweight tournament has a first round of Patricio Pitbull Freire vs. former UFC fighter Diego Nunes (this is a good test because Nunes was a solid just below contender fighter in UFC), Wilcox vs. Akiop Stepanyan, Des Green vs. Fabricio Guerrero and Joe Taimanglo vs. Andrew Fisher.
ROAD TO DESTRUCTION: A New Japan B PPV, building up to the 9/29 Destruction show airs live from Korakuen Hall in Tokyo at 5:30 a.m. Eastern time and 2:30 a.m. Pacific late Friday night/early Saturday at
www.ustream.tv/channel/njpw1972
The show is more like a prototypical go-home Raw without the skits, in the sense the matches are there to set the final stage for the bigger show in Kobe.
The lineup has Sho Tanaka & Yohei Komatsu vs. Taka Michinoku & Taichi, Tiger Mask & Bushi vs. Alex Shelley & Kushida (presumably Taka & Taichi and Shelley & Kushida win to build their matches on the PPV), Yuji Nagata & Manabu Nakanishi & Takaaki Watanabe vs. Takashi Iizuka & Yujiro Takahashi & Yoshi-Hashi, Togi Makabe & Tomoaki Honma & Captain New Japan vs. Prince Devitt & Karl Anderson & Bad Luck Fale, Shinsuke Nakamura & Toru Yano vs. Minoru Suzuki & Shelton Benjamin (to build Nakamura vs Benjamin for the IC title and Suzuki vs. Yano on 9/29), Hiroshi Tanahashi & Jushin Liger defend the CMLL tag titles against Tama Tonga & Rey Bucanero, and a main event of Satoshi Kojima & Tetsuya Naito vs. Kazuchika Okada & Masato Tanaka (to build Okada vs. Kojima for the IWGP title and Tanaka vs. Naito for the No. 1 contender spot and NEVER title).
WORLD SERIES OF FIGHTING: NBC Sports presents live MMA fighting on 9/14 from Atlantic City, NJ, at 9 p.m.
The show is headlined by Andrei Arlovski vs. Mike Kyle, plus the semifinals of a middleweight title tournament with Dave Branch vs. Danillo Villefort and Elvis Mutapcic vs. Jesse Taylor, as well as Rolls Gracie vs. Derrick Melman and Georgi Karakhanyan vs. Waylon Lowe. The show will air starting at 9 p.m. Eastern, moved up from their usual start time with the hope the main event ends before Mayweather and Alvarez go in the ring.
NIGHT OF CHAMPIONS: The WWEs monthly PPV is a show promoted around two matches, Randy Orton vs. Daniel Bryan for the WWE title and a handicap elimination match with C.M. Punk vs. Paul Heyman & Curtis Axel, with the promise that Punk would eliminate Axel and finally get to Heyman.
Bryan vs. Orton is going to be the litmus test of the last few weeks of promotion. Bryan gets a great reaction at all the TVs with the Yes chants, but the question is, is it the chant thats over, the wrestler, or both. Obviously to a degree the answer is both, but what degree is the question. But while HHH and Orton are doing a great job as adversaries for Bryan, the show is based on whether or not people believe he can, and are willing to pay to see Bryan win the WWE title. Are the constant beatdowns effective in building Bryan, as in being left laying seven television shows in a row? That would and have never been done at this level with the big dog babyfaces like Steve Austin, HHH, Hulk Hogan, Bret Hart or John Cena. But is this dynamic different and will it be effective because of Bryans small stature and underdog role? Do enough people feel Bryan represents them, hard workers who feel the company they work for overlooks them, and instead promotes either better looking people, kiss asses or family members to the best positions? Do they relate to the idea of being constantly put in fear for their jobs? Is he a different version of rising up against a boss who screws you like Steve Austin, in the sense Austin was more a fantasy character who screwed with his boss constantly, most of the time came out ahead, but never lost his job? Or is this portrayal of wrestlers, even the top main eventers on the face side, constantly fearful of their jobs, and in a more realistic situation where they grudgingly have to go along, another scenario that will result in upping fan interest and getting them to spend money on the product? Or is it something different?
At this point, nobody knows. TV ratings havent noticeably moved, past the day of SummerSlam being up because the Cena to Bryan to Orton scenario at that show was great. All things considered, ratings certainly are not bad. House show attendance at major arenas in traditionally strong wrestling markets this past weekend were not at good levels, but PPV appeals to a different audience than house shows these days. Bryan did one great segment on 8/26, which also involved HHH and Orton, in his gauntlet and post-match with The Shield gaining more than 1 million viewers. The one thing is that if the number is up to any degree, the direction is a success. Even if its down slightly, thats a sign its not a great success, but the crossover of Mayweather with the high price point being the day before will hurt a few percentage points.
Punk vs. Heyman & Axel is all based on Punks quest to get Heyman. There are a lot of ways this can go. To me, Heyman is too valuable to just blow off, although having Punk beat him up and him disappearing for a short period of time and returning when Punk least expects it is viable. So is debuting a new monster protege to get him out of the jam.
The rest hasnt been built up well, but it doesnt matter, but its really Orton vs. Bryan that its all dependent on.
Alberto Del Rio vs. Rob Van Dam for the world title has not seen Van Dam booked strong leading to his shot. Not that a U.S. title match in this day and age will mean anything and that the challenger needs to be pushed hard before the match, but the Dean Ambrose vs. Dolph Ziggler match is extreme in that direction. The other two matches are A.J. Lee vs. Naomi vs. Natalya vs. Brie Bella in a Divas title match, and a tag team title match.
The pre-show will be a multiple person tag match with The Prime Time Players, The Usos, Brodus Clay & Sweet T, Jack Swagger & Antonio Cesaro and 3MB, with the winning team facing Seth Rollins & Roman Reigns for the titles. One would expect the Prime Time Players and Usos to be the favorites. The Usos already worked with them on PPV and lost clean, but they were also the ones who worked the angle with Rollins & Reigns on the Smackdown show that airs two nights before the PPV. But in that angle, Rollins pinned one of the Usos again, which isnt what youd in theory do to the next challengers unless youre doing a title change. There doesnt seem to be the momentum for a title change going to faces, particularly when Los Matadores are getting the big vignette treatment as faces. The Prime Time Players were getting more wins on the shows the past few weeks, but ended up now on either Raw or Smackdown go-home week.
Its also interesting to note that the one tag team that hasnt lost, Erick Rowan & Luke Harper, have been kept out of this scenario. Its possible they could be a late add, but more likely, its not time for The Shield vs. Wyatt Family and there was no point to put the Wyatts in a situation like that where they arent winning.