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MS Earnings Call - FY23Q3 | 4% decline for MS Gaming, Xbox HW down 30%

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Nickavacado is awesome.
 

johnjohn

Member
I see the impending Actvision acquisition approval is taking its toll on some people here lol.

Definitely better numbers than expected, and it's great to see Game Pass still expanding. And more importantly, MS shareholders seem happy.

Let me ask you this question.

What causes this decline in sales?
What can Xbox do in order to mitigate this decline?
Simple, games. And it's something they're well on their way to fixing.
 
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Robb

Gold Member
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Feels like this should be the time where hardware is growing the most. Hopefully they’ll get the ball rolling sooner rather than later.
 

Brucey

Member
Exactly. I'm still wondering how some people are trying to glance over this.

These numbers are unprecedented.


I don't think we've ever seen this kind of drop off before.
What was the dropoff for OG Xbox? I remember MS dropping it like a hot potato after a short generation to start over with 360 with a 12-18 month headstart to the PS3.
 

Vroadstar

Member
So we get to page 10 and I'm seeing damage control in all its deliciousness.

But the Creme De La Creme here is that Microsoft, a company that has been mass-producing XBOX consoles since 2001, is having trouble manufacturing said consoles because of reasons.

giphy.gif


Instead of just admitting that the demand for XBOX consoles, as Microsoft have already stated in legally binding documents to regulators, is declining. Instead, Sarah Bond, the Tooth Fairy, the Easter Bunny and Hulk Hogan's are the reason for the decline. Never change gaf. Please never ever change.

This thread in a nutshell...

Its Fine Ok GIF by ZDF Magazin Royale
 

Brucey

Member
It was Phil Spencer who successfully convinced Satya Nadella to not shut Xbox down, and to start opening up the wallet for gaming.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/phil-spencer-is-exactly-who-you-think-he-is/1100-6468846/

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Therefore, all the studio acquisitions can absolutely be credited to his efforts since he sounds like he convinced the CEO to loosen the purse strings just a tad. And by just a tad I mean over $78 billion between Minecraft, Bethesda, Activision Blizzard King and all the other smaller studio and IP additions. There's a reason he's been promoted to CEO of Microsoft's new business segment, Microsoft Gaming. Microsoft is liking what they're seeing out of Game Pass.
That chat with Satya about the future of Xbox happened in 2014. Certainly in terms of market and mind share the Xbox platform is not in as strong a shape as it was back then.
 
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GriffinCorp

Member
30% is a huge drop this "early" in the game. Do we think the pro version will come? Any new hardware to help boost the numbers?
 

onQ123

Member
I don't think anyone is here worrying about MS as a whole, the company overall probably makes millions of dollars every second.

There are tons of places to make money for them outside of their consoles but these numbers for the console are worrying and terrible.

If I'm in charge at MS I'm looking to fire some people at Xbox.

Hardware being down 30% on their 3rd year is unprecedented levels of bad. I don't think I've ever seen a console drop this quickly before. They should be going into hyperdrive right now instead of declining this hard YoY.
Your original post was that these numbers was terrible & I replied that only the console numbers was bad.

Xbox as a whole being down 4% in this quarter in contrast to what they actually put out in the last 3 months isn't bad .



Xbox selling around 1.4 million consoles in this quarter with Hogwarts Legacy, Resident Evil 4 REmake , HiFi Rush & $150 Series S deals is terrible beyond measures especially when PS5 is going to show around 6 million consoles sold in this same 3 months.


They fumble the chance at growth in a normally slower period on the back of Hogwarts Legacy but they survived a bloodbath for now & need to get it together because the next few months & whenever Switch 2 comes out will be death to Series S which is curing most of the weight for Xbox Series Consoles now & a PS5 Slim or whatever this new PS5 will be will continue to chock out Series X.
 

feynoob

Banned
Your original post was that these numbers was terrible & I replied that only the console numbers was bad.

Xbox as a whole being down 4% in this quarter in contrast to what they actually put out in the last 3 months isn't bad .



Xbox selling around 1.4 million consoles in this quarter with Hogwarts Legacy, Resident Evil 4 REmake , HiFi Rush & $150 Series S deals is terrible beyond measures especially when PS5 is going to show around 6 million consoles sold in this same 3 months.


They fumble the chance at growth in a normally slower period on the back of Hogwarts Legacy but they survived a bloodbath for now & need to get it together because the next few months & whenever Switch 2 comes out will be death to Series S which is curing most of the weight for Xbox Series Consoles now & a PS5 Slim or whatever this new PS5 will be will continue to chock out Series X.
The console needs games first.

If they want to sell 2m+, they need to show those games.
 

Brucey

Member
30% is a huge drop this "early" in the game. Do we think the pro version will come? Any new hardware to help boost the numbers?
I don't see a fix to slowing sales. They could maybe push for a series x pro with 20tf for $600, but if they are losing $100-$200 on series s and x hardware, they prob lose even more. At some point you would be better of putting that money into a GPU for a PC, to get the best out of gamepass etc.

Certainly seems like with this generation we have seen that having the "most powerful, 12tf etc" has not been a determinant in terms of consumer demand.
 

DrFigs

Member
I think having some sort of cod exclusive content and elder scrolls exclusivity can make a difference for next gen. so in the next 3 or 4 years. MS can tough it out, but I do think Blizzard, Activision, and Bethesda will make them extremely competitive. But yeah it's not looking good for this gen.
 
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The question is by how much? Many COD players are invested in PlayStation at this point. We know COD will probably remain on PS5 (and possibly PS6). It is going to be interesting to see how much COD will be able to pull from PlayStation. I have been interested in that since this whole acquisition was announced.
A lot ….

Just to put things into context, Call of Duty generates more money for Sony than all of big games like God of war and spiderman combined. Xbox is basically taking the most popular game on playstation and giving it away on a big discount if it’s in game pass. Plus I’m assuming all of the new and old activision blizzard games will be added to game pass.

Then they still have big new games coming like Starfield, Avowed, etc. If these new games are actually good. This will set them up to do well going forward.

If all this doesn’t work, Xbox is done lol.
 
Your original post was that these numbers was terrible & I replied that only the console numbers was bad.

Xbox as a whole being down 4% in this quarter in contrast to what they actually put out in the last 3 months isn't bad .



Xbox selling around 1.4 million consoles in this quarter with Hogwarts Legacy, Resident Evil 4 REmake , HiFi Rush & $150 Series S deals is terrible beyond measures especially when PS5 is going to show around 6 million consoles sold in this same 3 months.


They fumble the chance at growth in a normally slower period on the back of Hogwarts Legacy but they survived a bloodbath for now & need to get it together because the next few months & whenever Switch 2 comes out will be death to Series S which is curing most of the weight for Xbox Series Consoles now & a PS5 Slim or whatever this new PS5 will be will continue to chock out Series X.
The next couple of months are going to be the most important in Xbox history then. If they can’t turn this ship around quickly then they are totally fucked. I wish them the best but I’m not very hopeful going by their past history. They need games. Services are good, buying publishers is good but they need a steady release of games now.
 

onQ123

Member
The console needs games first.

If they want to sell 2m+, they need to show those games.
You say that but Hogwarts Legacy just sold like 20 million in this quarter , REmake 4 came out this quarter, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II came out a few months before this quarter started & surely still had people picking up consoles in this quarter. It's not just the games they need to make Xbox Series consoles desirable.
 

Smoke6

Member
If activitision deal gets approved by both cma and EU, MS will close activitision in June.

This means that Xbox will get both Diablo and starfield day1 for game pass, which will move some serious numbers during the holidays.

If the deal fails, then it's up to MS first party to do the heavy lifting.
You know so much yet you didn’t know Diablo is not going to game pass! You sound moronic as fuck! An investor is gonna look at things that are not performing well just as much as what is performing good! -30% on something and we’re having a chat about that!
 

Baki

Member
Do you have a source for that ?
Sony projects to sell 6.2M for the quarter that just ended. (Check their quarterly report)

MS did $507M in hardware revenue (including accessories), which translates to about 1M XS consoles sold.
 
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Brucey

Member
Sony projects to sell 6.2M for the quarter that just ended. (Check their quarterly report)

MS did $507M in hardware revenue (including accessories), which translates to about 1M XS consoles sold.
Could be 2 million xb series s at $250 each and a smattering of series x to make up for it.
 

Smoke6

Member
I think having some sort of cod exclusive content and elder scrolls exclusivity can make a difference for next gen. so in the next 3 or 4 years. MS can tough it out, but I do think Blizzard, Activision, and Bethesda will make them extremely competitive. But yeah it's not looking good for this gen.
What games are system sellers from this deal? What games are people gonna abandon one eco system for to play on this one that activision has? Do you really think right now that can change? Honest question. I don’t see it! If Redfall falls flat and starfield has any issues then what’s left?

Nintendo dropping heat, and Sony still hasn’t shown us phase two yet and we have an idea of what’s coming especially Spider-Man 2 and final fantasy 16!

COD is in a tough spot especially with the buzz surrounding another FPS game in beta and Diablo isn’t going to game pass day and date.

This is uncharted territory we’re in when the date of a brand like Xbox seems to be in limbo for now I feel
 
Seems to me like MS is done with losing substantial amounts selling their consoles. Series X got a price hike in Sweden and is now only available in bundles making for in effect a 100€ price increase. Makes sense since they would be dominated by Sony either way so why throw away your money. Makes double sense if they truly believe in a hardware agnostic future.
 
Microsoft will only be limiting total market size if they made COD exclusive. Shareholders/board will absolutely not like that (I’m sure legacy ATVI will have a seat too). Imagine releasing a COD game and it’s the least profitable one over 20 years. It’s going to be a Minecraft situation. Keep dreaming
 
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DrFigs

Member
What games are system sellers from this deal? What games are people gonna abandon one eco system for to play on this one that activision has? Do you really think right now that can change? Honest question. I don’t see it! If Redfall falls flat and starfield has any issues then what’s left?

Nintendo dropping heat, and Sony still hasn’t shown us phase two yet and we have an idea of what’s coming especially Spider-Man 2 and final fantasy 16!

COD is in a tough spot especially with the buzz surrounding another FPS game in beta and Diablo isn’t going to game pass day and date.

This is uncharted territory we’re in when the date of a brand like Xbox seems to be in limbo for now I feel
I think when the next Elder Scrolls or Fallout comes out, i do think they're huge system sellers. COD may move lots of systems if it's bundled with the next xbox, or it being on gamepass appeals to people. And I think especially on PC, the Xbox store has lots of room to grow still. I feel like that's where they're going to gain the most ground, even if their console stuff doesn't pay off.

Edit: these games that xbox is making now will not make a difference for sure, but i'm talking about 3 or 4 years from now, after sony's deal with Activision is done, when Elder scrolls 6 is ready to come out, etc.
 
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Baki

Member
Could be 2 million xb series s at $250 each and a smattering of series x to make up for it.

Hardware revenue includes accessories. Also they record sales at full price, even if there was a $50 promotion. The $50 promotion would go under COGS or marketing. Most likely scenario is 1M shipped for this quarter.
 

Nubulax

Member
Sony projects to sell 6.2M for the quarter that just ended. (Check their quarterly report)

MS did $507M in hardware revenue (including accessories), which translates to about 1M XS consoles sold.
Wonder how much they lost in hardware PROFIT... if they are still losing 100-200 a console like phil mentioned
 

Brucey

Member
Microsoft will only be limiting total market size if they made COD exclusive. Shareholders/board will absolutely not like that (I’m sure legacy ATVI will have a seat too). Imagine releasing a COD game and it’s the least profitable one over 20 years. It’s going to be a Minecraft situation. Keep dreaming
They are already limiting sales with Redfall and Starfield not releasing on PS.
 
I can't think of a worse period for a major publisher, let alone a console maker. The decline in sales is deserved.

Redfall isn't going to change anything, the rut will continue until Starfield.

I'd love a more competitive industry but MS have just been a joke this gen.

I'll take cunty Jim, if it means a decent lineup of games, over nice guy but no games Phil anyday.

Seems like a wildly premature response based on outdated thinking about what the Xbox business actually is. This is nowhere near as bad a report as some think unless people only focus on the hardware numbers.

It's their strongest non-holiday quarter ever for xbox content & services, which includes Game Pass. Game Pass' continued growth totally defied Microsoft's expectations in a positive way, leading to the exact opposite of the worst outcomes Microsoft predicted in their previous quarterly report. Content and Services went from an expected loss to revenue growth due to Game Pass. Xbox revenue overall didn't decline as much as expected.




They're about to add $7-$8 billion in revenue from Activision Blizzard plus be able to count Diablo IV, Redfall, Minecraft Legends, Starfield, Forza, COD 2023, Warzone and Warzone mobile, etc,. among their balance sheets this year at some stage in the next 2 quarters. I can't think of a more perfect storm from a gaming business standpoint, especially how the ABK closing will impact Game Pass growth. Anyone who looks at the full picture sees there's nothing alarming here besides their console supply situation.

From a pure business outlook, anybody can see that any premature claim of a doomed Xbox is suffering from a lack understanding that they're not getting the complete picture. That complete picture includes Activision Blizzard. Even without them it's clear to see that Xbox is in prime position. And thinking Redfall will do nothing appears a little too skeptical when it's quite obvious from those Game Pass content and services results that Hi-Fi Rush, Halo Infinite Season 3 and an Xbox Direct had a seemingly far bigger impact than many thought it would, to the point that it led to a record non holiday quarter for Xbox content and services and the Xbox revenue as a whole outperformed Microsoft's expectations from last quarter along with content and surprises which posted a gain when Microsoft expected a loss. Notice also Microsoft predicting they would have worse supply compared to the prior year in their forecast?

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That chat with Satya about the future of Xbox happened in 2014. Certainly in terms of market and mind share the Xbox platform is not in as strong a shape as it was back then.

Totally not true, but what followed afterwards? Xbox has had 6 back to back record setting fiscal years for revenue since FY17Q4. Every Q4, you see what's happening? These are supposed to be the years Xbox is getting stomped by Playstation, but it's steadily doing better and better. Way better, in fact, than Xbox 360 ever did for them revenue wise. It's because many don't really factor in just how the business has actually changed since then and why the current Game Pass strategy for Microsoft is secretly paying dividends that most are missing.

Game Pass, in short, is Microsoft's first party games lineup turned into a subscription service and sold. And then it gets some support from 3rd parties here and there to further help with subs and retention. Xbox right now is seeing more yearly revenue from first-party thanks to Game Pass than at any other time in the entire history of the xbox console. Game Pass literally brought in $2.9 billion in revenue just on consoles in 2021. Nobody can point to a single year in the existence of Xbox such a thing has ever occurred, not even with the 360's 2007 that included Halo 3, Mass Effect and many other titles.

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Game Pass has changed the entire calculation of what success means at Xbox. This was implemented under Phil's leadership. The first full fiscal year seeing it in action led to Satya putting Phil in the Senior Leadership Team at Microsoft in late 2019.

Mind share is night and day different thanks to Series X, Game Pass' popularity and its overall value. The overall offering to xbox fans and the future games pipeline is vastly superior to anything Xbox has ever seen. Microsoft has never had this many exciting looking games in development from a first-party standpoint, many of which will be exclusive. It can't be understated how many effectively free and high quality games people are seeing on Xbox thanks to Game Pass.

Sometimes I wonder if people have ever factored what Game Pass could look like by the end of this generation, and how many quality games from amazing studios will be in there. This isn't the same old Xbox of years past.

Another often overlooked element is that Microsoft absolutely nailed their VRR implementation on Series consoles in such a way that nearly every game experience is just flawless on the system, and the Series X VRR range is top tier. Many of what people see in DF comparisons framerate wise does not ever show for people with capable displays. There are rare cases where a game's optimization messes with the VRR window, but it is exceedingly rare and it's always fixed though not often covered by DF, which just makes sense because they can't cover everything.

So I really doubt you're being serious when you say the xbox platform is not in as strong a shape as it was back during the 2014 year with Xbox One. For people just enjoying all the games we've been gettting, especially through Game Pass and not taking the whole thing too serious, Xbox is mopping the floor with what Xbox was before. The lineup has never been more diverse and all we have to do is just wait for more amazing games to drop, and this year is setup to be an incredible year indeed.

Microsoft is on the verge on launching Bethesda's next big RPG IP exclusively on xbox consoles and day one on Game Pass. And they'll be able to count Diablo IV and the success of the next COD as part of the Xbox brand fairly soon and get all the financial and mind share benefit that comes with that, especially knowing that they're likely to add Diablo IV in Game Pass as soon as they possibly can. They'll have a hit with that on Steam as well as with COD 2023 and Starfield. I know Game Pass isn't free, but it's damn near effectively free for what we're getting, so the thought of everything MIcrosoft will own first-party this year, outside of Call of Duty, dropping into Game Pass is really something I don't think people have truly factored in yet.
 

onQ123

Member
Could be 2 million xb series s at $250 each and a smattering of series x to make up for it.
Including accessories which includes Xbox Elite controllers being sold for over $100 & Series X bundles for $559 & you think over 90% of this come from Series S?
 

Chronicle

Member
No?

For example, I just checked and non-bundled Series X consoles are out of stock at Best Buy, Target, and Amazon right now. PlayStation 5 is available on all 3 of those sites.

It’s been like this for months.
I love this.

I saw.... at one store.... therefore....

Lol!

Never get (g)old neogaf. Never get old!
 
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Seems like a wildly premature response based on outdated thinking about what the Xbox business actually is. This is nowhere near as bad a report as some think unless people only focus on the hardware numbers.

Mate it's nice to have some members back on these forums that do their homework. Sure I laugh at you liking the Halo TV show but I totally respect your time and effort on fact gathering, as well as your take on Xbox. Kudos.
 

analog_future

Resident Crybaby
I love this.

I saw.... at one store.... therefore....

Lol!

Ever get (g)old neogaf. Never get old!

What are you even talking about? I didn't say anything about seeing something at one store. Playstation 5s are in stock literally everywhere and Series X's continue to be hard to find. A five second search on Amazon will show you that. Or the Target or Best Buy websites. Go look yourself.
 
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Brucey

Member
Including accessories which includes Xbox Elite controllers being sold for over $100 & Series X bundles for $559 & you think over 90% of this come from Series S?
I was just thinking of max possible units, it doesn't seem realistic in real life though.
 
Microsoft will only be limiting total market size if they made COD exclusive. Shareholders/board will absolutely not like that (I’m sure legacy ATVI will have a seat too). Imagine releasing a COD game and it’s the least profitable one over 20 years. It’s going to be a Minecraft situation. Keep dreaming
MS's bigger issue will be dealing with the backlash if they take away CoD from PS. It might end up being a bigger revolt than the XBone "always online/no more used games" riot that happened which MS never recovered from. Gamers are used to revolting when treated like shit because God knows we're treated like shit all the time by everybody.
 
What are you even talking about? I didn't say anything about seeing something at one store. Playstation 5s are in stock literally everywhere and Series X's continue to be hard to find. A five second search on Amazon will show you that. Or the Target or Best Buy websites. Go look yourself.
Series X stock is everywhere.

I think what you mean to say is that finding them without bundles is difficult. There is no real console shortage for anyone actually serious about getting the console. Getting the console bundled with one its best games at only $50 extra shouldn't deter anyone serious about getting it even if the game is already on GamePass.


This what I got after a 1 minute search. Plenty Series X consoles around my area....

qh7EoLz.jpg

mos5Uu7.jpg

WgHoQKt.jpg

ZDyETkF.jpg
 
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analog_future

Resident Crybaby
Series X stock is everywhere.

I think what you mean to say is that finding them without bundles is difficult. There is no real console shortage for anyone actually serious about getting the console. Getting the console with bundled with one its best games at only $50 shouldn't deter anyone serious about getting it even if the game is already on GamePass.


This what I got after a 1 minute search. Plenty Series X consoles around my area....

qh7EoLz.jpg

mos5Uu7.jpg

WgHoQKt.jpg

ZDyETkF.jpg

Yeah, that's exactly what I said in the original post I was quoted on and responded to.

And like I said earlier in this thread:

If I was split between deciding on buying a new Xbox or a new PlayStation, and my options were to buy a PlayStation for $500 or an Xbox bundled with a game I don’t really want for $560-$570, the choice would be made for me. Particularly when I could play that same game with Game Pass anyway.

I’m not saying the supply issues are completely to blame for the sales dip, but to deny they’ve made an impact would be asinine.
 
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Yeah, that's exactly what I said in the original post I was quoted on and responded to.

And like I said earlier in this thread:
Sounds to me like MS are just artificially limiting themselves with these bundles which to me seem like a stealth price increase.

There are enough consoles to go around, the issue now is that they are being force bundled. That's insane to me.
 
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