clarky
Gold Member
That's my take also.
Once you cross the line to the dark side, then why would you? To play a couple of weeks early? You'd just play something else.
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New study: Piracy can reduce sales revenues by 20% when Denuvo is cracked very early on, while leads to nearly zero revenue loss after 12 weeks
- Thread starter LectureMaster
- Start date
- Opinion Business Analysis
Once you cross the line to the dark side, then why would you? To play a couple of weeks early? You'd just play something else.
winjer
Gold Member
Something tells me this is another of those studies that look at piracy sites, look at the downloads and think that equates to a lost sale.
But the real world doesn't work like that. Pirates don't buy games, just because they can't pirate it. They just move on to the next thing they can.
It's the same fallacy that all these sponsored studies make.
But the real world doesn't work like that. Pirates don't buy games, just because they can't pirate it. They just move on to the next thing they can.
It's the same fallacy that all these sponsored studies make.
Fabieter
Member
What would pirates do in a streaming only future? Not play games anymore?
winjer
Gold Member
Probably, but considering streaming is so limited compared to local gamming, that will probably never happen.
Gamezone
Gold Member
I pirated games as a kid, but I was broke and wouldn't have bought them anyway. With Steam and their sales, everything is just too convenient to even bother pirating games. I don't really mind Denuvo. It haven't given me any issues.
But how effective is Denuvo? How long does it take to crack these days?
But how effective is Denuvo? How long does it take to crack these days?
clarky
Gold Member
Doesn't seem to be a problem for movies, music and TV.
Fabieter
Member
You still can download all of those stuff. How would you pirate a streaming only game.
Gamezone
Gold Member
Probably the same as I would in a streaming only future (I pay for my games). Not play games anymore.
clarky
Gold Member
It'll never be streaming only. Not in my lifetime anyways.
Fabieter
Member
It's the only way for the companies to profit of some of those individuals.
Fabieter
Member
It's very hard to believe that those people would just stop with the stuff the have done for decades at this point.
clarky
Gold Member
Not if 3/4 of the world doesnt have fast enough internet. That would be called cutting off your nose to spite your face.
Like i said not in my lifetime. There needs to be a local option until he whole world has access to lightening fast internet.
Gamezone
Gold Member
You can't pirate a streaming only game, but I also don't think a streaming only future will happen. Not even Microsoft's Phil Spencer believes that.
clarky
Gold Member
We don't know how that would work. There isn't such a thing as a streaming only game right now as far as im aware?
Hackers could steal the code, much like today and leak it? I dunno if people want to steal shit they usually find a way.
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Fabieter
Member
They go for digital only and didn't care for that either. If they optimize it further they can also bring the requirements down. Something Something ai. Its not impossible and like I said its the only way to defeat piracy.
clarky
Gold Member
See my post above, like i say if someone want to steals something they'll find a way. New tech brings new problems.
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Fabieter
Member
Maybe a backdoor into AWS which will enable endless streaming of all games but that won't be the case for the normal people
.
clarky
Gold Member
Or just hacked or stolen accounts and the such.Maybe a backdoor into AWS which will enable endless streaming of all games but that won't be the case for the normal people
Fabieter
Member
True but already the case today. It's no problem with valve getting it your back most of the time. But it's already a problem in the local digital world.
Gamezone
Gold Member
They will have to install servers in our backyards, unless AI also can improve the speed of light.
clarky
Gold Member
GForce Now is actually pretty good for me but i still wont use it. For a very large percentage of the world its not even accessible. We are a few decades at least from even thinking about streaming only imo. Even then it wouldn't stop people getting free shit.
a multicultural team of v
Member
I had something totally different written up as a response here, but then I read one of the articles that described his methodology and don't feel as confident about what he did. I think his models and conclusion based on his data is probably correct, but I think the data he is using on how he is determining sales is likely untested, and therefore his results only make sense of you agree with how he determined sales. That said he might reference other papers or research that would support his assumption being reliable, but that would require reading the actual paper.
1000%. I also had something totally different written up here, but as I say above he's making an assumption on the usefulness of his data from the get go, so while the models and methodology might be great the conclusion is as reliable as his assumption.
Fabieter
Member
e.g. 1280x720)
25 Mbps for FHD resolutions at 60 FPS (e.g. 1920x1080)
35 Mbps for UW QHD & QHD resolutions at 120 FPS (e.g. 3840x1440 or 2560x1440)
45 Mbps for 4K resolutions at 120 FPS (e.g. 3840x2160)
These are the requirements for nvidia now today and it works really really well. It will only get better from now on.
Gamezone
Gold Member
Geforce Now had pretty bad input lag when I tested it, but I also live in Europe. It's probably not very noticable with a controller, but I normally play with a mouse and keyboard.
clarky
Gold Member
If you live in the Artic circle then good luck playing Ikaruga over Gforce now regardless of connection speed.
Gamezone
Gold Member
The requirements are fine on paper, but there are still artifacting and hiccups, especially when using wifi. Local gaming works perfect trough wifi though.
KungFucius
King Snowflake
It adds zero value to the customer and in some cases reduces the value. But it is certainly likely that it causes some would be pirates to buy. I hate it, but I can't fault publishers for using it. I just wish there was something better that didn't
I am not sure the data is there to really back this guy's study up. Denuvo cracks are not really random. If a big game is cracked early, the competing games released at the same time are likely not, this means people might pirate the cracked game and possibly buy a competing game, or just play the pirated one. Also who the fuck knows what will happen in several years? If an 8-10 year old game is still selling for 30 bucks maybe piracy is more likely.
The thing that strikes me as not believable is that somehow 15% of people are waiting for a game and will pirate OR buy and somehow informed of the crack status. When do they actually decide to buy in the first week? I would expect this distribution to be different than the actual buy curve but in this guy's model its just a time based reduction to the same trend. Most Denuvo games do not get cracked early and if these people really were going to buy, where is the point where most of them give up waiting for a crack and jump in?
Another thing to doubt here is that denuvo has been around for the past decade and it went from being cracked more often to being not cracked and maybe removed. It also went from being in some games to being in most games. So the overall behavior of pirates has changed because things are very different now. How can you use past data to infer anything about now behaviors?
Does anyone have a pirated copy of this paywalled article so I can see what assumptions this person made.
Gamezone
Gold Member
Agreed. By the way, I live in the artic circle.
Anyone still arguing that Piracy doesn’t impact sales, citing an outdated 2013 study, has to be a clown.
Yeah, it’s hard to measure exactly, since not every pirate would buy the game. But I know a ton of people who are financially well off who still pirate heavily if they can.
Many people who pirate will buy the game if there’s no crack available.
People were literally paying for Steam accounts with Black Myth Wukong on it just because it wasn’t cracked.
Many people just want to save their money for other things. Including games that can’t be cracked.
Yeah, it’s hard to measure exactly, since not every pirate would buy the game. But I know a ton of people who are financially well off who still pirate heavily if they can.
Many people who pirate will buy the game if there’s no crack available.
People were literally paying for Steam accounts with Black Myth Wukong on it just because it wasn’t cracked.
Many people just want to save their money for other things. Including games that can’t be cracked.
Fabieter
Member
I agree but imagine downloading 100gb games and 20gb patches in the artic.
Fabieter
Member
I have really fast connection nowadays but that wasn't always the case. There were day where my friends called me to play with them and through patching I couldn't play with them for a whole week. It's not perfect.
clarky
Gold Member
How many though? That's what we are talking about. You can't measure it.
No one was saying Piracy doesn't affect game sales in some form, maybe i missed that bit.
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YeulEmeralda
Linux User
If Denuvo made economic sense everyone would use it.
In reality only a small amount of triple A games have it. And it gets removed after a few years.
Denuvo ain't free-.
In reality only a small amount of triple A games have it. And it gets removed after a few years.
Denuvo ain't free-.
Fabieter
Member
I mean "pirates don't buy games" kind of means that it doesn't affect sales tho.
Gamezone
Gold Member
But how well does it work?
midnightAI
Member
As an ex-pirate myself (Amiga mainly), this is very true
More and more AAA devs are using it these days. You don’t hear howls of outrage because folks are getting used to it.
Metaphor has Denuvo. FFXVI on PC has Denuvo. Black Myth Wukong has Denuvo.
Yes. Read the damn OP. It’s stated there why it’s removed after a while.
cyberheater
PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
What about the revenue loss due to folks not buying games with Denuvo installed. I know I'm one of those.
clarky
Gold Member
Not really. If you took away a pirates ability so they had no other choice but to buy games then of course sales would go up, but while the option is there people will always steal if they are a thief.
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Fabieter
Member
If we can't measure piracy how would we measure this?
Rivdoric
Member
i support disney on all Star Wars movies
Fabieter
Member
Okay so you mean the ability at all not just new games? Because if they want to play the new shinny thing everyone talks about at release they have to buy it if denuvo isn't cracked already!
BlackTron
Gold Member
Came here to say this.
Survey is blablah and can't measure this stuff, but your claim that pirates don't buy any game anyway must be more accurate and measurable, right.
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clarky
Gold Member
Like i said in my experience, they will just wait. I already explained that.
Fabieter
Member
Imo some will some will buy it.
clarky
Gold Member
Hi there, did you read the thread or the Paper?
Edit: No. Didn't think so.
How many though? lol we are going round in circles fella.
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Fabieter
Member
Hi there, did you read the thread or the Paper?
How many though? lol we are going round in circles fella.
Yes I agree.
CompleteGlobalSaturation
Member
Keep in mind a sizable proportion of people who pirate games are from countries where the average wage is a pittance. These people would never able to afford games and regional prices are fucked.
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clarky
Gold Member
Good way to spend a sunday at work though, killed a bit of my shiftYes I agree.
Cool movie also.
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