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[clarky]

Second, how many people who pirated would have bought it? It is likely quite a bit higher for games cracked on day one, since they are interested in the game. This is much tougher to gauge, if it is even 5%, that can be significant for a game that is downloaded hundreds of times on day one.

I think this is the hard part. There is simply no way to know.

 

[clarky]

.

Let's be honest: Making the argument that "piracy is a victimless crime", is awfully convenient when you don't have any stakes in the game,

If it was your money, your job on the line, would you be so easy going about it?

Considering the way people freak when a game disappoints them somehow, (oooh stutters!), and especially those who would use the (ridiculous, in my view) "doesn't respect my time" complaint, excuse me for thinking that there's a truly spectacular double-standard at play.

Who was making that argument?

 

[diffusionx]

I think this is the hard part. There is simply no way to know.

I think there are ways to guess. For example, if you could figure out how far people get into the pirated game using telemetry, you could assume that people who played it a lot were potential buyers as opposed to people who played it for five minutes. It's definitely not zero.

Copy protection from the days of disk wheels or whatever was always about delaying the inevitable more than eliminating it, largely to get people interested in the game to buy it instead of waiting until some unknown amount of time. Like, I remember reading an article abotu how Spyro fucked with the game logic in pirated copies and they intentionally delayed some of the effects because the people interested in the game would get farther then realized they had a bum copy that couldn't be finished. It didn't matter if you just downloaded games and burned them to have a big library (probably 90% of pirates).

 

[clarky]

I think there are ways to guess. For example, if you could figure out how far people get into the pirated game using telemetry, you could assume that people who played it a lot were potential buyers as opposed to people who played it for five minutes. It's definitely not zero.

Copy protection from the days of disk wheels or whatever was always about delaying the inevitable more than eliminating it, largely to get people interested in the game to buy it instead of waiting until some unknown amount of time. Like, I remember reading an article abotu how Spyro fucked with the game logic in pirated copies and they intentionally delayed some of the effects because the people interested in the game would get farther then realized they had a bum copy that couldn't be finished. It didn't matter if you just downloaded games and burned them to have a big library (probably 90% of pirates).

Not a bad idea. Tricky to implement but im sure you could get willing volunteers.

I remember my habbits from the high seas way back when, i usually didn't play most titles for longer than an hour, if that.

 

[diffusionx]

Not a bad idea. Tricky to implement but im sure you couls get willing volunteers.

I remember my habbits from the high seas way back when, i usually didn't play most titles for longer than an hour, if that.

I mean, most pirates are not a discerning bunch. The pirated copies could have telemetry in them. I wouldn't be surprised if companies are doing this already. I am sure they have internal data and estimates on this. Honestly, the 20% seems somewhat high but pretty reasonable. The other side of it does too, the only people pirating a game after 12 weeks are those who probably weren't going to buy it anyway, or wait for a sale.

I have a conspiracy theory of sorts that the rise of gaashit was partly because publishers wanted to fix the piracy issue once and for all. The ESA, which is the publisher mouthpiece, talked a LOT about piracy in the 360 era. Imagine if you are running Activision, why would you not see Diablo 3 getting pirated millions of times and decide then and there to make Diablo 4 online only gaashit?

 

[StreetsofBeige]

.
I was thinking on this yesterday. i think the only way to have a decent crack at figures would be to look at the digital sales of a title across all PC stores vs PSN & xbox and compare sales over time. Add in markers for when the game is cracked and see if it affects the sales on PC. You obviously need lots of samples but i think that would show you if Dunveno was having an effect and roughly ly by how much

Perhaps. his methodology might involve something like that.

Problem I see with that kind of calculation (I was thinking something similar), is that gaming has such a wild ride of sales (frontloaded), no two games are alike (if a comparison involves a past product), so looking at a Dueveno crack date and then do a post mortem calculation can still be way off.

I dont support pirating, but hey I admit I've done my share playing copied old ass Apple and PC games. I remember way back sitting there watching my brother do it, or download a copy overnight from some 300 baud modem bulletin board back in 1985. But it can lead to people buying legit copies later, which is another calculation that would be nobel prize worthy if someone could calculate that to offset any pirated goods. And ya I did Napster back in the day.

Even more odd, how about this calculation? I watched maybe half an hour stream of that DiCaprio movie Wolf on Wall St. Dozed off as it was late. But enjoyed what I remember (it must had been the beginning of the movie since he just transferred from his office job to starting a job at that boiler room in a strip mall and Jonah Hill is itching to join in). I decided to buy the book off Amazon (I admit, first 3 chapters so far are a bore. lol). And when I get around to buying Xmas gifts for fam, I'm going to order a 4k disc for myself to add to my collection. So from a half hour snip of a movie, I ended up the shady guy's book and will buy the 4k.

 

[clarky]

I mean, most pirates are not a discerning bunch. The pirated copies could have telemetry in them. I wouldn't be surprised if companies are doing this already. I am sure they have internal data and estimates on this. Honestly, the 20% seems somewhat high but pretty reasonable. The other side of it does too, the only people pirating a game after 12 weeks are those who probably weren't going to buy it anyway, or wait for a sale.

I have a conspiracy theory of sorts that the rise of gaashit was partly because publishers wanted to fix the piracy issue once and for all. The ESA, which is the publisher mouthpiece, talked a LOT about piracy in the 360 era. Imagine if you are running Activision, why would you not see Diablo 3 getting pirated millions of times and decide then and there to make Diablo 4 online only gaashit?

Personally I don't think its that high like i was saying earlier in the thread.

From my experience i just wouldn't by games at all. Obviously im just one person and there are different habbits in piracy but just from my experience and those around me.

Then you have areas where piracy is almost legal or blind eyes are turned, some Asian countries, Russia and eastern Europe for example. You can buy pirated cppies on the high street in some places ive visted. No way of knowing how it affects those areas either.

Its an interesting topic for sure.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

When it comes to piracy % rates (not absolute numbers), I wonder how big name games and noname indie games compare.

On one hand, everyone knows the big name games. So that means lots of legit sales that can decrease the pirate rate. But also, more piraters cracking the game asap so gamers can more easily find and download it.

For smaller games, there's less people playing or knowing about it from the get go. So maybe piraters dont give a shit about cracking it, so a pirated copy takes a while. Or maybe it happens fast. But then for small unknown gamers, more gamers may wait for a downloadable copy because they have no idea if it's good or bad like a well known game with legacy.

 

[clarky]

When it comes to piracy % rates (not absolute numbers), I wonder how big name games and noname indie games compare.

On one hand, everyone knows the big name games. So that means lots of legit sales that can decrease the pirate rate. But also, more piraters cracking the game asap so gamers can more easily find and download it.

For smaller games, there's less people playing or knowing about it from the get go. So maybe piraters dont give a shit about cracking it, so a pirated copy takes a while. Or maybe it happens fast. But then for small unknown gamers, more gamers may wait for a downloadable copy because they have no idea if it's good or bad like a well known game with legacy.

Not sure how things go these days but everything got cracked back in the day, big games, small games, good games, terrible ones. Didn't matter.

 

[FunkMiller]

I'd like to see how much revenue is lost due to refunds, because Denuvo makes games unplayable.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

I have a conspiracy theory of sorts that the rise of gaashit was partly because publishers wanted to fix the piracy issue once and for all. The ESA, which is the publisher mouthpiece, talked a LOT about piracy in the 360 era. Imagine if you are running Activision, why would you not see Diablo 3 getting pirated millions of times and decide then and there to make Diablo 4 online only gaashit?

I remember bringing this up way back and I forget what the answer was gaffers said.

But some games from what I remember are hard to crack because it involves server side calculations. Like Diablo 3 that do all the loot drop rates or whatever server side. So if you try to play a pirate copy, the game wont work correctly.

So why cant all game studios do some kind of server required thing where to get the game working properly?

 

[clarky]

I remember bringing this up way back and I forget what the answer was gaffers said.

But some games from what I remember are hard to crack because it involves server side calculations. Like Diablo 3 that do all the loot drop rates or whatever server side. So if you try to play a pirate copy, the game wont work correctly.

So why cant all game studios do some kind of server required thing where to get the game working properly?

Always online or online checks? That would go down well around these parts lol.

 

[marquimvfs]

Not sure how things go these days but everything got cracked back in the day, big games, small games, good games, terrible ones. Didn't matter.

Back in the day, crack games was a game itself. Hacker groups competed against each other to see who could crack a game first.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Back in the day, crack games was a game itself. Hacker groups competed against each other to see who could crack a game first.

Copying games back in the day was such an odd trial and error.

When my bro would copy games on his Apple II clone, he used Disk Muncher and Locksmith 6.0.

- Disk Muncher was fast but much less reliable than Locksmith which took forever
- If a game failed copying, sometimes just doing it again and again it might suddenly catch and copy!
- Sometimes Disk Muncher could copy a game, where Locksmith failed. And vice versa
- Also, copying success also depended on the disk brand as some were better than others according to my bro. I remember him saying BASF floppies (I remember they were brown) and a brand using a thick pink sleeve where the best to use!

 

[Sentenza]

Even if you assume 20% lower revenue due to piracy, 80% of a massive number is still a massive number.

Weird point to make.

Weird way to read it and understand it, more than anything.

Street Fighter 6 has DRM and it's selling faster than SFV did. Metaphor has DRM and it's Atlus most successful release on PC, going by launch window sales.

Meaningless.
Both are different games in different circumstances than what preceded them.
Metaphor is one of the (if not THE) first major releases from ATLUS that didn't come on PC as a later console port, for example.
And SF6 is more successful than SF5 IN GENERAL, even on consoles.

 

[clarky]

Back in the day, crack games was a game itself. Hacker groups competed against each other to see who could crack a game first.

I used to be into that scene, I'd receive games via post. Wild times.

We even used Sellotape over the stamps to save on postage lol.

 

[Ozriel]

I'd like to see how much revenue is lost due to refunds, because Denuvo makes games unplayable.

Denuvo does not make games unplayable. Let's not resort to wild hyperbole here.

 

[clarky]

Denuvo does not make games unplayable. Let's not resort to wild hyperbole here.

That depends on your rig and the title.

If your performance is on the verge of unplayable the it definitely has the ability to push it over the edge.

 

[pudel]

I recall EU doing a survey years ago that they tried to hide because it didn't reveal piracy as very harmful.

If someone is interested in the EU study, which the EU in fact tried to hide for two years (maybe cause it doesnt show the "expected" negative result)....you can go from here: https://gizmodo.com/the-eu-suppressed-a-300-page-study-that-found-piracy-do-1818629537

There was even a thread here:

The EU did not Publish a 300-Page Study that couldn't Find Proof Piracy Harms Sales

Link The European Commission paid 360,000 (about $428,000) for a study on how piracy impacts the sales of copyrighted music, books, video games, and movies. But the EU never shared the reportpossibly because it determined that there is no evidence that piracy is a major problem. The...

www.neogaf.com

 

[Fabieter]

20% on average?

That sounds humongous. If this was true every single games company would be acting like Nintendo all the time. Something's off.

Either way I hope we get more research on this in the future, positive or negative (from the companies perspective). I recall EU doing a survey years ago that they tried to hide because it didn't reveal piracy as very harmful.

There is big difference between not harmful or not able to dertimine the scale of the harm.

 

[Astray]

Denuvo does not make games unplayable. Let's not resort to wild hyperbole here.

I remember seeing the Special K developer saying that Denuvo has issues, but it doesn't affect the game performance at all.

 

[Fabieter]

If someone is interested in the EU study, which the EU in fact tried to hide for two years (maybe cause it doesnt show the "expected" negative result)....you can go from here: https://gizmodo.com/the-eu-suppressed-a-300-page-study-that-found-piracy-do-1818629537

There was even a thread here:

The EU did not Publish a 300-Page Study that couldn't Find Proof Piracy Harms Sales

Link The European Commission paid 360,000 (about $428,000) for a study on how piracy impacts the sales of copyrighted music, books, video games, and movies. But the EU never shared the reportpossibly because it determined that there is no evidence that piracy is a major problem. The...

www.neogaf.com

The study finds that the impact of piracy on video game sales is different compared to other media such as music and films. While piracy generally has a negative effect on those other cultural products, the effect on video games is surprisingly positive. Specifically, the study mentions that illegal downloads and streams of video games can actually lead to an increase in legal purchases.

In other words, piracy may act as a form of advertising or incentive in the video game industry. Players may illegally download a game to try it out, and if they enjoy it, they later decide to purchase a legal copy. This could be because many games offer additional content or bonus levels that are only accessible in the legitimate version. According to the study, for every 100 illegal downloads or streams, there are about 24 additional legal transactions.

The industry may have successfully adapted by developing business models that aim to convert pirates into paying customers, for example through in-game purchases or special bonuses for buyers of the legal version. This could explain why piracy tends to have a different effect on video games compared to music or films, where the effects are typically.

So its basically the reason we get as much gaas as we get. Because the EU finding dont sound like people decide to buy tradional Single player games afterwards.

 

[AlphaDump]

They should poison the piracy well by putting a "bad" copy out there that delivers a payload to wipe your computer. Let that spread like wild fire across the pirate community and scare them all shitless.

 

[grvg]

This study is obvious bullshit and the info they provide could never be truly quantifiable.

People who never would have bought the game torrent cracked versions.

Hell, people who torrent cracked versions oftentimes don't even play the game, they just add it to their data board.

There are also people who both torrent AND buy the game.

 

[nkarafo]

I call this bs , people who pirate games, ain't buying games period.

People who pirate games also download many random games they are not really interested in. They just pirate them because they are available to them for free, not because they like them.

So pirated downloads being counted as lost sales is the biggest bullshit i ever heard in this topic.

 

[PurePlatinum]

Yeah no shit lol

 

[grvg]

They should poison the piracy well by putting a "bad" copy out there that delivers a payload to wipe your computer. Let that spread like wild fire across the pirate community and scare them all shitless.

"Pirates do an illegal thing so companies should do a much more.malicuous and damaging illegal thing that will leave them open to significant criminal prosecution and civil liability."

 

[AlphaDump]

"Pirates do an illegal thing so companies should do a much more.malicuous and damaging illegal thing that will leave them open to significant criminal prosecution and civil liability."

I wasn't really serious.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

If pirating or listening to music is so bad, I wonder what companies views are about all their songs on YT, which anyone can listen to or download for free. And it's not even like it can be properly monetized because just about every song will be posted by a random person (not the official artist or music label). So making it worse, a random YT dude might get click money over the artist.

I get a feeling singers and music companies dont care. But you think they would so that they can shut all that down and get people to do a spotify account to make pennies on the dollar fees or get them to straight up buy the songs for $1 each.

 

[Fabieter]

If pirating or listening to music is so bad, I wonder what companies views are about all their songs on YT, which anyone can listen to or download for free. And it's not even like it can be properly monetized because just about every song will be posted by a random person (not the official artist or music label). So making it worse, a random YT dude might get click money over the artist.

I get a feeling singers and music companies dont care. But you think they would so that they can shut all that down and get people to do a spotify account to make pennies on the dollar fees or get them to straight up buy the songs for $1 each.

Musicans get the most money through concerts and advertising. Labels and streaming services are cancer for them.

If we are considering youtube for games than this conversation gets even more complicated tho.

 

[analog_future]

Second, how many people who pirated would have bought it? It is likely quite a bit higher for games cracked on day one, since they are interested in the game. This is much tougher to gauge, if it is even 5%, that can be significant for a game that is downloaded hundreds of times on day one.

I've always hated this argument anyway because it's meaningless. A criminal also wouldn't buy a million dollar home, but that doesn't in any way act as a justification to steal it.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

I've always hated this argument anyway because it's meaningless. A criminal also wouldn't buy a million dollar home, but that doesn't in any way act as a justification to steal it.

Agreed.

It all comes down whatever methodology or math someone uses to determine the actual lost sales from the pirating group, assuming there was no crack and what XYZ portion of piraters would had actually bought it.

The research guy came up with 20% using some kind of downward trend line when Deunuvo fails extrapolating sales before and after. Comes down to whether someone believe the 20% is reasonable or out to lunch.

How would the researcher do his trendline if it's super popular game where sales over time goes up as it picks up steam (before eventually fizzling out)?

 

[Fabieter]

Agreed.

It all comes down whatever methodology or math someone uses to determine the actual lost sales from the pirating group, assuming there was no crack and what XYZ portion of piraters would had actually bought it.

The research guy came up with 20% using some kind of downward trend line when Deunuvo fails extrapolating sales before and after. Comes down to whether someone believe the 20% is reasonable or out to lunch.

How would the researcher do his trendline if it's super popular game where sales over time goes up as it picks up steam (before eventually fizzling out)?

I actually think am ai with enough data could back up either side quite nice. Better than any researcher though

 

[Astray]

If pirating or listening to music is so bad, I wonder what companies views are about all their songs on YT, which anyone can listen to or download for free. And it's not even like it can be properly monetized because just about every song will be posted by a random person (not the official artist or music label). So making it worse, a random YT dude might get click money over the artist.

I get a feeling singers and music companies dont care. But you think they would so that they can shut all that down and get people to do a spotify account to make pennies on the dollar fees or get them to straight up buy the songs for $1 each.

Bro most artists claim the music rights on most of these videos and get the ad money for themselves.

 

[Sleepwalker]

They should poison the piracy well by putting a "bad" copy out there that delivers a payload to wipe your computer. Let that spread like wild fire across the pirate community and scare them all shitless.

Yeah there's absolutely no way this can back fire on the game publisher.

 

[StereoVsn]

I don't even want to argue about having Denuvo in the first place. But can the damn publishers then pull the stupid thing off after 12 weeks?

Because at least we should see some performance improvement and less BS on titles without impact on revenue.

 

[chakadave]

Weird way to read it and understand it, more than anything.

Retail stores literally do this with theft, loss, damage and returns. Somethings are just uncontrollable. Saying 100% of copies of a game being pirated is just dumb.

I've always hated this argument anyway because it's meaningless. A criminal also wouldn't buy a million dollar home, but that doesn't in any way act as a justification to steal it.

Where are million dollar homes being stollen? Also can you make a copy with 0 resources?

 

[analog_future]

Where are million dollar homes being stollen? Also can you make a copy with 0 resources?

Or a $200k car. Or literally whatever else you want to choose.


And making "a copy with 0 resources" doesn't in any way negate the millions or sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars invested to make these games.

 

[GreetingsMortal]

Because games are half off after 3 months these days so why bother pirating by that point

 

[DeepEnigma]

*study funded by Denuvo

 

[Sentenza]

Retail stores literally do this with theft, loss, damage and returns. Somethings are just uncontrollable. Saying 100% of copies of a game being pirated is just dumb.

Thank god I' was never saying it, then?
I have no idea what you are even attempting to argue, at this point.

 

[chakadave]

Or a $200k car. Or literally whatever else you want to choose.


And making "a copy with 0 resources" doesn't in any way negate the millions or sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars invested to make these games.

Investments are not without risk. Making a badd game is way more a threat than a pirating site. Should there be no risk to that development?

 

[analog_future]

Investments are not without risk. Making a badd game is way more a threat than a pirating site. Should there be no risk to that development?

You're making my point. There's enough risk to game development without having to worry about dickwads stealing your work.

 

[TwiztidElf]

Ah the good old piracy equals lost sales argument.
/ben kenobi - that's a name I haven't heard in a long time gif.