Ah, but we're not considering these things in isolation.
Sure, and we've already been considering the other things in this thread (the reliance on 'almost' milestones, a range of Game Pass costs being hand-waved, Microsoft's reported creative accounting re Game Pass making their statements about profitability of the service unreliable, Microsoft's desire to be able to describe Game Pass as profitable making their statements about profitability unreliable etc).
You brought up this additional element (we can infer it is profitable because they didn't shut it down) so I addressed the leap of logic this specific argument relies upon.
I think you already demonstrated awareness of this yourself when you referred to 'closing down studios that can't deliver'. 'Can't deliver', not 'are not delivering'. The implication -a correct one imo- of this choice of words being that they shut them down not
only because of a current inability to deliver, but because of an expectation that this inability will continue.
Microsoft may well not have shut them down if they were losing money now but they were expecting them to come good later, and there are probably studios which avoided the chop because they fall into this category. Game Pass may also fall into this category, which is why we can't infer that it is currently profitable from it not being shut down. Game Pass not being shut down doesn't inform us either way.
If they are committed to a handheld and new console coming within the next couple of years, my expectation is they see how that plays out before deciding what to do with Game Pass. If they are DOA, it's hard to see a future for Game Pass.