Here are the latest results to the poll that Shorts posted (which now has around 450 votes), any commentary on it.
Mewtwo (242)
Mega Man (242)
K. Rool (203)
Ridley (202)
Little Mac (181)
Isaac (155)
Palutena (147)
Shulk (130)
Roy (122)
Waluigi (115)
Takamaru (114)
Ghirahim (106)
Bowser Jr. (102)
Pac-Man (91)
Zoroark (89)
Chrom (89)
Toad (87)
Geno (82)
Dixie Kong (81)
Saki (81)
Krystal (80)
Samurai Goroh (73)
Black Shadow (48)
Waddle Dee (47)
Mona (45)
Anyway, here is some commentary on each character and their position in the poll:
Mewtwo:
Its no surprise he is at the top. A lot of people were genuinely surprised at his removal in Smash Bros. He is probably the most popular legendary Pokemon. Being an iconic character for Nintendo's biggest franchise next to Mario as well as already having been a playable character in Smash Bros. makes him one of the top choices for Smash 4 especially for the diminished pool we have now. I would go on to say that Mewtwo is definitely unveil trailer material, though, I don't think it is likely to happen (though he is definitely a candidate). He is probably the most wanted character in Japan as well, so for him to put on a repeat performance in the West, is no surprise.
Mega Man:
As with Mewtwo, its not surprise he is topping this poll. He is probably the third-party character most synonymous with Nintendo, and unlike most other characters for this poll, he is the star to a major series. Being incredibly popular among Nintendo fans, as well as being amongst Capcom's most famous properties, Mega Man probably has the most starpower of any potential newcomer to Smash 4. Mega Man is one of the top candidates to be shown off at the E3 2013 unveil due to how much starpower he has relative to other potential Smash 4 newcomers. Mega Man too is also amongst the most highly wanted newcomers for Smash 4 for the Japanese fanbase (probably the most wanted character after the two cut Melee veterans).
K. Rool:
K. Rool is lower than Mewtwo and Mega Man, but still much higher than any other character (except Ridley). Being considered the main villain for the DK series, one of Nintendo's more popular properties, is a large reason behind this. Although he has not made a game appearance in half a decade, his popularity maintains due to the staying power and popularity of Rare's DK games (all three of the games to the DKC trilogy were among the Top 10 best selling games for the Super Nintendo, while Donkey Kong 64 was within the Top 10 best selling games for the Nintendo 64). K. Rool is probably one of the two most wanted "true newcomer" (since Mewtwo and Roy were already in Smash) by the Japanese fanbase, so this is not a Western phenomenon (which is no surprise considering how well Rare's DK games sold in Japan). K. Rool is a candidate for a potential E3 2013 unveil due to his popularity and starpower relative to most other Smash 4 newcomers.
Ridley:
Ridley, like K. Rool, is lower than Mewtwo and Mega Man, but still much higher than any other character. As too with K. Rool, Ridley being considered the main villain for the Metroid series, one of Nintendo's more popular properties, is the major push behind this. Unlike K. Rool, Ridley made at least two major appearances since Brawl's release (maybe three, considering Prime 3 was released after Brawl in Japan, and Prime 3 received no content in Brawl). Ridley is one of the few iconic Nintendo characters not already playable in Smash Bros., making a prominent appearance in the Metroid attraction in Nintendo Land (where even there he is described as being Samus's arch-nemesis). Metroid nowadays has most of its popularity based in the West, and at this point half the games in the series have been developed by Western teams. Although there is not much interest for Ridley amongst the Japanese fanbase, there is acknowledgement about his overseas popularity. Ridley like with the previously mentioned characters so far, is a top contender for an unveil newcomer at E3 2013, especially considering the show is a Western venue as well as him being far more menacing and "cool" as far as potential villainous newcomers go.
Little Mac:
Little Mac is below the Big 4, but he is still amongst the most wanted characters by the Western fanbase. He is the most popular and iconic character for one of Nintendo's lesser known series, Punch-Out, which has a strong fan following in the West. The release and success of a new installment in this series since Brawl's release has contributed a lot to the interest in seeing Little Mac added. In regards to adding characters for series not already represented with a playable character, Little Mac is amongst the most attractive candidates for Sakurai to look at (especially considering how long-running Punch-Out has been). As with Ridley before, Little Mac does not have much interest in Japan, though like Ridley, there too is an acknowledgement about his overseas popularity. Punch-Out, like Metroid, is mostly a Western series nowadays (though since the very beginning Punch-Out has had most of interest from Westerners as well as probably being geared at towards Westerners). As with all the characters mentioned so far, Little Mac is a candidate for being an "unveil newcomer" at E3 2013 due to his starpower in the West.
Isaac:
Isaac is basically another Little Mac, but with slightly less popularity. He is basically the Marth of Golden Sun (the protagonist of the first game of the series, yet by far the most popular main protagonist overall). Like Punch-Out, Golden Sun received a new installment after Brawl's release, although it was not received as well as its GBA predecessors. I am really surprised about how much Isaac's popularity has held considering the GBA games were released a decade ago. As with Little Mac, amongst series that do not already have a playable character in Smash Bros., Isaac is one of the best choices. Camelot may have to make a new Golden Sun as their next project once they get done releasing Mario Golf for the 3DS, considering they may not have the resources to make a game for the Wii U. However, Isaac being amongst the West's most wanted characters after all these years really shows the staying power and cult following that the Golden Sun series has. One might say he is possibly competing with Shulk (another blonde-haired RPG protagonist that has a cult following), however, although Xenoblade has much accolades, it never enjoyed the sales success that the GBA Golden Sun games enjoyed. The re-release of the GBA Golden Sun games for the Virtual Console could spark even more interest in Isaac (and possibly the series overall), or at the very least help Isaac maintain the interest he already has.
Palutena:
Palutena is not as big as the series heroes Little Mac and Isaac, but she is definitely in the big leagues as far as requests go. Amongst potential female newcomers, she is definitely by far the best choice (considering unlike nearly every other possible female newcomer, she is actually IMPORTANT to her franchise, to the point the series is even named after her in Japan). No other female character comes close to Palutena for requests (with Dixie Kong and Krystal being distant seconds). Her personality and banter with Pit in Uprising endeared many people to her. The only real obstacle standing in her way is Sakurai feeling too humble to use her (since Uprising was his baby) or feeling that a series as small as Kid Icarus does not warrant two playable characters. Regardless, she is definitely among the top candidates to be shown as a newcomer at E3 2013, especially if a possible female newcomer is shown. She may be the only good choice as far as attractive female newcomer characters go.
Shulk:
Shulk is pretty much riding the waves of the cult following and accolades that Xenoblade has. Unlike Isaac though, much less people have played Xenoblade though (a used copy at this point is $60+), which is probably the primary reason why there is less interest for him. He is also a character from a stand alone game (though "X" may change that). However, considering that he is one of the few noteworthy "new" characters to show up since Brawl's release, Sakurai may be more lenient on him. If Shulk turns out to be a protagonist in "X" I expect his popularity to increase further, its also possible that "X"'s main protagonist (whoever that is) eats Shulk's lunch and basically causes the interest in Shulk to depreciate.
Roy:
Roy being among the West's Top 10 most wanted characters for Smash 4 should not come as a surprise. He was amongst the most popular newcomers in Melee, and still to this day is considered amongst the most iconic and well-known faces to that Fire Emblem franchise even in the West (just see how he is being promoted for FE13's DLC by NOA). As with Mewtwo, he almost made it into Brawl. Hailing from the much smaller Fire Emblem franchise (especially in the West), there is less interest for Roy than Mewtwo though. As with Isaac, his popularity maintaining after all these years shows his staying power. In Japan, Roy is probably the most wanted "newcomer" for Smash 4 outside of Mewtwo (who is probably the most wanted character overall). The high amount of interest for Roy internationally is the prime reason why I think Sakurai may opt to give Fire Emblem four slots this time around (especially if he does decide to bring in Chrom).
Waluigi:
Perhaps the most surprising character to be as high as he is. Waluigi is definitely not as important to the main series as Bowser Jr. and Toad are, but yet seems to have more fans. I think this primarily comes from Waluigi having much more of a personality than Bowser Jr. and Toad, and his overall "meme" status (see Brawl in the Family). I think overall he is probably the least likely of the four major candidates for a Mario newcomer (the other three being Toad, Bowser Jr., and Paper Mario), since his only advantage is "popularity" of which even that its only a slight leap compared to the other characters. I think if Waluigi were to have a role outside of being merely just another face on the roster to the Mario spinoffs, he would become a strong candidate for inclusion for Smash 5.
Takamaru:
Again, for some, it might be surprising to see him as high as he is, however, amongst possible retro characters he is easily the most attractive choice. There has been a lot of interest for katana using character (or at least a character with an Eastern swordplay style) and Takamaru is easily the best choice for one (since he could probably bring other Japanese weapons to the table as well such as shurikens). Takamaru and (his game) have had references in a slew of a games going back to Pikmin 2. Since Brawl's release he has showed up in several releases (Captain Rainbow, Samurai Warriors 3, Nintendo Land). With the attraction he had in Nintendo Land (Takamaru's Ninja Castle), he finally has the launch pad needed to get placed into Smash Bros. despite his source game (Nazo no Murasame) being Japan-only. Takamaru's chances of being amongst the first newcomers unveiled for E3 2013 is amongst the highest, especially if Sakurai decided show off a "retro revival" character like he did with Melee and Brawl.
Ghirahim:
Ghirahim, like Midna during pre-Brawl, has a lot of requests for Smash 4 as a result of being a major character in the most recently released home console Zelda. Skyward Sword being perhaps the most weakly received home console 3D Zelda, is probably the main reason why interest in him is not higher. There is definitely far more interest in him than any other potential Zelda newcomer, however, considering how the character (like Midna), is probably just another one-shot, Sakurai will probably skip over him, even if he does end up using Skyward Sword as the basis for the designs for Link and Zelda. However, if Zelda does end up getting a newcomer, he is amongst the top candidates to be selected. However, I think like with Midna, interest in him will depreciate once we see the next home console Zelda.
Bowser Jr.:
Bowser Jr. has been a mainstay in the main Mario series since Super Mario Sunshine, so its no surprise he is higher than most other characters. All the important Mario characters have been in since Melee (maybe Brawl if you count Wario), so its not really peculiar why Mario characters are not higher than they are even amongst the depreciated possible newcomer pool that Smash 4 has.
Pac-Man
Pac-Man is at the top of the list for the drop after Bowser Jr. Pac-Man being at the top is primarily due to him hailing from possibly the most iconic arcade game next to Donkey Kong, as well as Namco developing Smash 4. That Pac-Man is as low as he is shows how little interest there is to add another third-party newcomer outside of Mega Man. I do think though there is a good chance we will get a Namco character in Smash 4 (possibly even more than one) and Pac-Man is one of the top candidates for that. I think some sort of Namco character (of which the top candidates would be Pac-Man or a Tales character) is amongst the top candidates for a newcomer at the E3 2013 Smash 4 unveil.
Zoroark:
Zoroark is probably the most iconic Pokemon from the Black/White generation, however, he never caught on like Lucario did (probably due to being seen as too much of a retread of him), this even though Black/White was received better than Diamond/Pearl. However, Zoroark being this high in the poll, is impressive considering the announcement of Pokemon X/Y and announcement of Mewtwo's return in the latest Pokemon movie. However, I think while he is still plausible for Smash 4, he may have missed his chance.
Chrom:
Chrom is basically the Zoroark of the Fire Emblem series. He even has the same amount of votes as him. Like with Zoroark, his popularity is probably hurt by being seen as too much of a retread of a character already in Smash Bros. (in Chrom's case its Ike). Chrom's chances though are much better than Zoroark's though due to being much more "current". I expect Chrom's popularity to hold (while Zoroark's will gradually depreciate) since there may not be new FE game released in a while.
Toad:
I am really surprised that Toad is not higher than he is. He is a very iconic Mario character and has been with the Super Mario franchise since the very beginning. He is the only character left at this point that has been playable in the Mario platformers not yet playable in Smash Bros. I think the primary reason for why Toad is not the most wanted Mario newcomer despite his iconic status and Mario series seniority is due to being seen as "bland" and already being involved for one of Peach's special moves for two games going on now. I think though interest in Toad has been massively helped by the New Super Mario Bros. games as now I have seen far more interest in him as a playable character than I have ever seen for any other Smash Bros. game.
Geno:
This character had quite the cult following, and he still does to some extent. However, there is definitely less interest in him this time than the other four major Mario newcomer candidates (Toad, Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, Waluigi). For a one-shot side character though, his performance in the poll is quite strong, though there is far better (more worthy) choices than him (I would say even Dr. Mario and Waluigi have better merits than Geno).
Dixie Kong:
Dixie Kong is basically where K. Rool was for much of pre-Brawl, in the shadow of a much more prominent DK character (in K. Rool's case it was Diddy Kong). I think like K. Rool, there will definitely be more interest in her once K. Rool is confirmed for Smash 4, though how much of an increase she will enjoy remains to be determined.
Saki:
There initially seemed to be a lot of interest in Saki after Brawl's release, but now it seems to have died down. The Sin & Punishment series never had the following that Punch-Out and Golden Sun had, and it never received the accolades that Xenoblade received. It will probably end up that Isa gets in as an Assist Trophy, and that we get a music track or two from Sin & Punishment 2 for one of Smash 4's stages.
Krystal:
Krystal (along with Dixie Kong) are definitely the second-most wanted female newcomers for Smash 4. However, her popularity (like with Geno's) has crashed big time compared to the pre-Brawl days. I think the primary reasons for this are Star Fox not having received a proper new installment since 2006 (thus making many people think the SF series does not warrant four slots), Palutena eating her lunch (a lot of the people that backed Krystal wanted another "sexy" female for Smash Bros. and saw Krystal as the most likely candidate for that, however, with the advent of Palutena and her actually being a proper human instead of merely anthropomorphic, I think a lot of the Krystal backers may have flocked over to her), and that the negative connotation of the games that she has been in has survived longer than the positive experiences with them (or rather outnumbers it).
Samurai Goroh:
Samurai Goroh is definitely by far the preferred choice for a second F-Zerro character, however, there is definitely less interest for him than any other character in this poll outside of the three bottom tier characters. Like with Krystal, I think one of primary culprits is his last game appearance having been released so long ago (in Goroh's case being late 2004). I think Goroh could be doing a lot better even in this environment (especially when looking at characters like Isaac), considering how depreciated the pool of potential newcomers are this time around.
Black Shadow:
Black Shadow is amongst the three characters far lower than every other character in this poll. This is not a surprise considering like Goroh, his last game appearance was in late 2004, and that much of his appeal lies with him gaining Ganondorf's Melee/Brawl moveset while Ganondorf gets a new one (thus the people who loved a slower, more powerful version of Falcon's moveset would still have a character that has it).
Waddle Dee:
I think while Bandana Dee is definitely next in line for a Kirby newcomer, and that while he would make an interesting character choice, there frankly is not much interest in him (or a Kirby newcomer in general). I think if more people had played Return to Dream Land (or rather if Return to Dream Land was released earlier in the Wii's life) there would have been far more interest in him than there is now. I think he will eventually get into Smash Bros. if he continues to have roles like he did in Return to Dream Land.
Mona:
While I think Mona is probably the most wanted possible Wario newcomer, I think its basically akin to being the tallest midget. There is just little interest in there being a Wario newcomer despite the Wario series being bigger than many of the series in Smash Bros. I think if Sakurai for some reason skips on Palutena, Mona would be one of his top picks for a female newcomer.
I think overall in the West the Top 10 most wanted characters is basically:
1.Mewtwo
2. Mega Man
3. Ridley
4. K. Rool
5. Little Mac
6. Isaac
7. Palutena
8. Shulk
9. Roy
10. Takamaru
Honorable mention: Waluigi (I think he is on par with Takamaru, though he has far more detractors than any other character in the Top 10).
Mewtwo (242)
Mega Man (242)
K. Rool (203)
Ridley (202)
Little Mac (181)
Isaac (155)
Palutena (147)
Shulk (130)
Roy (122)
Waluigi (115)
Takamaru (114)
Ghirahim (106)
Bowser Jr. (102)
Pac-Man (91)
Zoroark (89)
Chrom (89)
Toad (87)
Geno (82)
Dixie Kong (81)
Saki (81)
Krystal (80)
Samurai Goroh (73)
Black Shadow (48)
Waddle Dee (47)
Mona (45)
Anyway, here is some commentary on each character and their position in the poll:
Mewtwo:
Its no surprise he is at the top. A lot of people were genuinely surprised at his removal in Smash Bros. He is probably the most popular legendary Pokemon. Being an iconic character for Nintendo's biggest franchise next to Mario as well as already having been a playable character in Smash Bros. makes him one of the top choices for Smash 4 especially for the diminished pool we have now. I would go on to say that Mewtwo is definitely unveil trailer material, though, I don't think it is likely to happen (though he is definitely a candidate). He is probably the most wanted character in Japan as well, so for him to put on a repeat performance in the West, is no surprise.
Mega Man:
As with Mewtwo, its not surprise he is topping this poll. He is probably the third-party character most synonymous with Nintendo, and unlike most other characters for this poll, he is the star to a major series. Being incredibly popular among Nintendo fans, as well as being amongst Capcom's most famous properties, Mega Man probably has the most starpower of any potential newcomer to Smash 4. Mega Man is one of the top candidates to be shown off at the E3 2013 unveil due to how much starpower he has relative to other potential Smash 4 newcomers. Mega Man too is also amongst the most highly wanted newcomers for Smash 4 for the Japanese fanbase (probably the most wanted character after the two cut Melee veterans).
K. Rool:
K. Rool is lower than Mewtwo and Mega Man, but still much higher than any other character (except Ridley). Being considered the main villain for the DK series, one of Nintendo's more popular properties, is a large reason behind this. Although he has not made a game appearance in half a decade, his popularity maintains due to the staying power and popularity of Rare's DK games (all three of the games to the DKC trilogy were among the Top 10 best selling games for the Super Nintendo, while Donkey Kong 64 was within the Top 10 best selling games for the Nintendo 64). K. Rool is probably one of the two most wanted "true newcomer" (since Mewtwo and Roy were already in Smash) by the Japanese fanbase, so this is not a Western phenomenon (which is no surprise considering how well Rare's DK games sold in Japan). K. Rool is a candidate for a potential E3 2013 unveil due to his popularity and starpower relative to most other Smash 4 newcomers.
Ridley:
Ridley, like K. Rool, is lower than Mewtwo and Mega Man, but still much higher than any other character. As too with K. Rool, Ridley being considered the main villain for the Metroid series, one of Nintendo's more popular properties, is the major push behind this. Unlike K. Rool, Ridley made at least two major appearances since Brawl's release (maybe three, considering Prime 3 was released after Brawl in Japan, and Prime 3 received no content in Brawl). Ridley is one of the few iconic Nintendo characters not already playable in Smash Bros., making a prominent appearance in the Metroid attraction in Nintendo Land (where even there he is described as being Samus's arch-nemesis). Metroid nowadays has most of its popularity based in the West, and at this point half the games in the series have been developed by Western teams. Although there is not much interest for Ridley amongst the Japanese fanbase, there is acknowledgement about his overseas popularity. Ridley like with the previously mentioned characters so far, is a top contender for an unveil newcomer at E3 2013, especially considering the show is a Western venue as well as him being far more menacing and "cool" as far as potential villainous newcomers go.
Little Mac:
Little Mac is below the Big 4, but he is still amongst the most wanted characters by the Western fanbase. He is the most popular and iconic character for one of Nintendo's lesser known series, Punch-Out, which has a strong fan following in the West. The release and success of a new installment in this series since Brawl's release has contributed a lot to the interest in seeing Little Mac added. In regards to adding characters for series not already represented with a playable character, Little Mac is amongst the most attractive candidates for Sakurai to look at (especially considering how long-running Punch-Out has been). As with Ridley before, Little Mac does not have much interest in Japan, though like Ridley, there too is an acknowledgement about his overseas popularity. Punch-Out, like Metroid, is mostly a Western series nowadays (though since the very beginning Punch-Out has had most of interest from Westerners as well as probably being geared at towards Westerners). As with all the characters mentioned so far, Little Mac is a candidate for being an "unveil newcomer" at E3 2013 due to his starpower in the West.
Isaac:
Isaac is basically another Little Mac, but with slightly less popularity. He is basically the Marth of Golden Sun (the protagonist of the first game of the series, yet by far the most popular main protagonist overall). Like Punch-Out, Golden Sun received a new installment after Brawl's release, although it was not received as well as its GBA predecessors. I am really surprised about how much Isaac's popularity has held considering the GBA games were released a decade ago. As with Little Mac, amongst series that do not already have a playable character in Smash Bros., Isaac is one of the best choices. Camelot may have to make a new Golden Sun as their next project once they get done releasing Mario Golf for the 3DS, considering they may not have the resources to make a game for the Wii U. However, Isaac being amongst the West's most wanted characters after all these years really shows the staying power and cult following that the Golden Sun series has. One might say he is possibly competing with Shulk (another blonde-haired RPG protagonist that has a cult following), however, although Xenoblade has much accolades, it never enjoyed the sales success that the GBA Golden Sun games enjoyed. The re-release of the GBA Golden Sun games for the Virtual Console could spark even more interest in Isaac (and possibly the series overall), or at the very least help Isaac maintain the interest he already has.
Palutena:
Palutena is not as big as the series heroes Little Mac and Isaac, but she is definitely in the big leagues as far as requests go. Amongst potential female newcomers, she is definitely by far the best choice (considering unlike nearly every other possible female newcomer, she is actually IMPORTANT to her franchise, to the point the series is even named after her in Japan). No other female character comes close to Palutena for requests (with Dixie Kong and Krystal being distant seconds). Her personality and banter with Pit in Uprising endeared many people to her. The only real obstacle standing in her way is Sakurai feeling too humble to use her (since Uprising was his baby) or feeling that a series as small as Kid Icarus does not warrant two playable characters. Regardless, she is definitely among the top candidates to be shown as a newcomer at E3 2013, especially if a possible female newcomer is shown. She may be the only good choice as far as attractive female newcomer characters go.
Shulk:
Shulk is pretty much riding the waves of the cult following and accolades that Xenoblade has. Unlike Isaac though, much less people have played Xenoblade though (a used copy at this point is $60+), which is probably the primary reason why there is less interest for him. He is also a character from a stand alone game (though "X" may change that). However, considering that he is one of the few noteworthy "new" characters to show up since Brawl's release, Sakurai may be more lenient on him. If Shulk turns out to be a protagonist in "X" I expect his popularity to increase further, its also possible that "X"'s main protagonist (whoever that is) eats Shulk's lunch and basically causes the interest in Shulk to depreciate.
Roy:
Roy being among the West's Top 10 most wanted characters for Smash 4 should not come as a surprise. He was amongst the most popular newcomers in Melee, and still to this day is considered amongst the most iconic and well-known faces to that Fire Emblem franchise even in the West (just see how he is being promoted for FE13's DLC by NOA). As with Mewtwo, he almost made it into Brawl. Hailing from the much smaller Fire Emblem franchise (especially in the West), there is less interest for Roy than Mewtwo though. As with Isaac, his popularity maintaining after all these years shows his staying power. In Japan, Roy is probably the most wanted "newcomer" for Smash 4 outside of Mewtwo (who is probably the most wanted character overall). The high amount of interest for Roy internationally is the prime reason why I think Sakurai may opt to give Fire Emblem four slots this time around (especially if he does decide to bring in Chrom).
Waluigi:
Perhaps the most surprising character to be as high as he is. Waluigi is definitely not as important to the main series as Bowser Jr. and Toad are, but yet seems to have more fans. I think this primarily comes from Waluigi having much more of a personality than Bowser Jr. and Toad, and his overall "meme" status (see Brawl in the Family). I think overall he is probably the least likely of the four major candidates for a Mario newcomer (the other three being Toad, Bowser Jr., and Paper Mario), since his only advantage is "popularity" of which even that its only a slight leap compared to the other characters. I think if Waluigi were to have a role outside of being merely just another face on the roster to the Mario spinoffs, he would become a strong candidate for inclusion for Smash 5.
Takamaru:
Again, for some, it might be surprising to see him as high as he is, however, amongst possible retro characters he is easily the most attractive choice. There has been a lot of interest for katana using character (or at least a character with an Eastern swordplay style) and Takamaru is easily the best choice for one (since he could probably bring other Japanese weapons to the table as well such as shurikens). Takamaru and (his game) have had references in a slew of a games going back to Pikmin 2. Since Brawl's release he has showed up in several releases (Captain Rainbow, Samurai Warriors 3, Nintendo Land). With the attraction he had in Nintendo Land (Takamaru's Ninja Castle), he finally has the launch pad needed to get placed into Smash Bros. despite his source game (Nazo no Murasame) being Japan-only. Takamaru's chances of being amongst the first newcomers unveiled for E3 2013 is amongst the highest, especially if Sakurai decided show off a "retro revival" character like he did with Melee and Brawl.
Ghirahim:
Ghirahim, like Midna during pre-Brawl, has a lot of requests for Smash 4 as a result of being a major character in the most recently released home console Zelda. Skyward Sword being perhaps the most weakly received home console 3D Zelda, is probably the main reason why interest in him is not higher. There is definitely far more interest in him than any other potential Zelda newcomer, however, considering how the character (like Midna), is probably just another one-shot, Sakurai will probably skip over him, even if he does end up using Skyward Sword as the basis for the designs for Link and Zelda. However, if Zelda does end up getting a newcomer, he is amongst the top candidates to be selected. However, I think like with Midna, interest in him will depreciate once we see the next home console Zelda.
Bowser Jr.:
Bowser Jr. has been a mainstay in the main Mario series since Super Mario Sunshine, so its no surprise he is higher than most other characters. All the important Mario characters have been in since Melee (maybe Brawl if you count Wario), so its not really peculiar why Mario characters are not higher than they are even amongst the depreciated possible newcomer pool that Smash 4 has.
Pac-Man
Pac-Man is at the top of the list for the drop after Bowser Jr. Pac-Man being at the top is primarily due to him hailing from possibly the most iconic arcade game next to Donkey Kong, as well as Namco developing Smash 4. That Pac-Man is as low as he is shows how little interest there is to add another third-party newcomer outside of Mega Man. I do think though there is a good chance we will get a Namco character in Smash 4 (possibly even more than one) and Pac-Man is one of the top candidates for that. I think some sort of Namco character (of which the top candidates would be Pac-Man or a Tales character) is amongst the top candidates for a newcomer at the E3 2013 Smash 4 unveil.
Zoroark:
Zoroark is probably the most iconic Pokemon from the Black/White generation, however, he never caught on like Lucario did (probably due to being seen as too much of a retread of him), this even though Black/White was received better than Diamond/Pearl. However, Zoroark being this high in the poll, is impressive considering the announcement of Pokemon X/Y and announcement of Mewtwo's return in the latest Pokemon movie. However, I think while he is still plausible for Smash 4, he may have missed his chance.
Chrom:
Chrom is basically the Zoroark of the Fire Emblem series. He even has the same amount of votes as him. Like with Zoroark, his popularity is probably hurt by being seen as too much of a retread of a character already in Smash Bros. (in Chrom's case its Ike). Chrom's chances though are much better than Zoroark's though due to being much more "current". I expect Chrom's popularity to hold (while Zoroark's will gradually depreciate) since there may not be new FE game released in a while.
Toad:
I am really surprised that Toad is not higher than he is. He is a very iconic Mario character and has been with the Super Mario franchise since the very beginning. He is the only character left at this point that has been playable in the Mario platformers not yet playable in Smash Bros. I think the primary reason for why Toad is not the most wanted Mario newcomer despite his iconic status and Mario series seniority is due to being seen as "bland" and already being involved for one of Peach's special moves for two games going on now. I think though interest in Toad has been massively helped by the New Super Mario Bros. games as now I have seen far more interest in him as a playable character than I have ever seen for any other Smash Bros. game.
Geno:
This character had quite the cult following, and he still does to some extent. However, there is definitely less interest in him this time than the other four major Mario newcomer candidates (Toad, Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, Waluigi). For a one-shot side character though, his performance in the poll is quite strong, though there is far better (more worthy) choices than him (I would say even Dr. Mario and Waluigi have better merits than Geno).
Dixie Kong:
Dixie Kong is basically where K. Rool was for much of pre-Brawl, in the shadow of a much more prominent DK character (in K. Rool's case it was Diddy Kong). I think like K. Rool, there will definitely be more interest in her once K. Rool is confirmed for Smash 4, though how much of an increase she will enjoy remains to be determined.
Saki:
There initially seemed to be a lot of interest in Saki after Brawl's release, but now it seems to have died down. The Sin & Punishment series never had the following that Punch-Out and Golden Sun had, and it never received the accolades that Xenoblade received. It will probably end up that Isa gets in as an Assist Trophy, and that we get a music track or two from Sin & Punishment 2 for one of Smash 4's stages.
Krystal:
Krystal (along with Dixie Kong) are definitely the second-most wanted female newcomers for Smash 4. However, her popularity (like with Geno's) has crashed big time compared to the pre-Brawl days. I think the primary reasons for this are Star Fox not having received a proper new installment since 2006 (thus making many people think the SF series does not warrant four slots), Palutena eating her lunch (a lot of the people that backed Krystal wanted another "sexy" female for Smash Bros. and saw Krystal as the most likely candidate for that, however, with the advent of Palutena and her actually being a proper human instead of merely anthropomorphic, I think a lot of the Krystal backers may have flocked over to her), and that the negative connotation of the games that she has been in has survived longer than the positive experiences with them (or rather outnumbers it).
Samurai Goroh:
Samurai Goroh is definitely by far the preferred choice for a second F-Zerro character, however, there is definitely less interest for him than any other character in this poll outside of the three bottom tier characters. Like with Krystal, I think one of primary culprits is his last game appearance having been released so long ago (in Goroh's case being late 2004). I think Goroh could be doing a lot better even in this environment (especially when looking at characters like Isaac), considering how depreciated the pool of potential newcomers are this time around.
Black Shadow:
Black Shadow is amongst the three characters far lower than every other character in this poll. This is not a surprise considering like Goroh, his last game appearance was in late 2004, and that much of his appeal lies with him gaining Ganondorf's Melee/Brawl moveset while Ganondorf gets a new one (thus the people who loved a slower, more powerful version of Falcon's moveset would still have a character that has it).
Waddle Dee:
I think while Bandana Dee is definitely next in line for a Kirby newcomer, and that while he would make an interesting character choice, there frankly is not much interest in him (or a Kirby newcomer in general). I think if more people had played Return to Dream Land (or rather if Return to Dream Land was released earlier in the Wii's life) there would have been far more interest in him than there is now. I think he will eventually get into Smash Bros. if he continues to have roles like he did in Return to Dream Land.
Mona:
While I think Mona is probably the most wanted possible Wario newcomer, I think its basically akin to being the tallest midget. There is just little interest in there being a Wario newcomer despite the Wario series being bigger than many of the series in Smash Bros. I think if Sakurai for some reason skips on Palutena, Mona would be one of his top picks for a female newcomer.
I think overall in the West the Top 10 most wanted characters is basically:
1.Mewtwo
2. Mega Man
3. Ridley
4. K. Rool
5. Little Mac
6. Isaac
7. Palutena
8. Shulk
9. Roy
10. Takamaru
Honorable mention: Waluigi (I think he is on par with Takamaru, though he has far more detractors than any other character in the Top 10).
