Its that time again. Its been a while since I last did an analysis on the results of Shortie's poll (close to a week ago), and since then there has been A LOT of new votes. The results and standings for the characters in the poll have changed quite a bit since then. Last time I did an analysis, the poll was at around 450 votes, now its around 815.
Mega Man (430)
Mewtwo (394)
Ridley (341)
K. Rool (321)
Little Mac (312)
Waluigi (265)
Isaac (261)
Palutena (230)
Roy (205)
Shulk (201)
Ghirahim (187)
Chrom (181)
Bowser Jr. (167)
Takamaru (157)
Pac-Man (154)
Geno (152)
Saki (131)
Zoroark (128)
Krystal (127)
Toad (126)
Samurai Goroh (122)
Dixie Kong (110)
Black Shadow (93)
Waddle Dee (80)
Mona (73)
Mega Man:
During the last analysis, Mega Man was on par with Mewtwo in terms of votes. However, this time, Mega Man has a sizable lead over Mewtwo. Mega Man seems to be the next Sonic, in the sense that he is more requested than any other Nintendo character, and yet the only widely requested third-party character. It makes sense that Mega Man is at the top of this poll considering that Mega Man is one of the most iconic video game characters and has a strong history with Nintendo consoles. Mega Man is probably the one newcomer that could bring the most hype to Smash 4. He stands a very good chance of being confirmed at E3 2013 for this very reason.
Mewtwo:
Although Mewtwo has fallen behind Mega Man, he is definitely a very solid second place, with the character with the third most votes being more than 50 votes behind Mewtwo. Mewtwo falling behind Mega Man is possibly due to him not being the single-most important character to an iconic series like Mega Man is. However, Mewtwo is definitely the most popular Pokemon that was not playable in Brawl, and by far the most iconic legendary Pokemon in the series. Mewtwo hailing from a series that is one of the Nintendo's two biggest, and already having been in Smash Bros. before, gives him an edge over every other character not named Mega Man. Mewtwo has the potential to become even more requested due to his upcoming appearance in the next Pokemon movie. Mewtwo is a candidate for a character to be confirmed at E3 2013 due to how strongly desired he is for Smash 4, especially factoring in both the Western and Japanese fanbases.
Ridley:
In the previous analysis, Ridley was on par with K. Rool for votes. Now he has a sizable lead over K. Rool in votes. Ridley having a lead over K. Rool is probably due to that there has been a much longer wait for Ridley (there has been a large amount of fans asking for Ridley for over a decade, while the demand for K. Rool really did not take off until Diddy Kong was confirmed in late 2007), as well as Ridley having at least two prominent appearances since Brawl's release. Ridley has been with the Metroid series since the very beginning and is the most iconic character from that series aside from Samus herself. Ridley is probably the one Nintendo newcomer that could produce the most hype for Smash 4. Ridley stands a very good chance of being among the first newcomers shown at E3 2013 for this very reason (especially considering E3 is a Western show, and Ridley is especially desired in the West).
K. Rool:
K. Rool has fallen behind Ridley since the last analysis. K. Rool is definitely among the Top 5 most wanted newcomers for Smash 4 though. K. Rool is similar to Ridley in that he is the closest thing to a main antagonist for his respective series, however, K. Rool has a few deficits that make him fall behind Ridley. One is that K. Rool's last major game role was pretty much Donkey Kong 64, which was released in late 1999. Although he had the role of antagonist in Paon's DK games (the last of which was released in 2007), none of those sold well or had the reception of Rare's DK games. The only DK game that has been able to match Rare's games in sales and fan reception was Donkey Kong Country Returns, of which K. Rool (and Dixie Kong) were absent. For this, its possible there is a faction of DK fans that are unfamiliar with K. Rool, or at least don't see him as important to the franchise. Regardless, K. Rool is still far more requested than nearly every other possible newcomer, and has a good chance of being one of the newcomers shown at E3 2013 due to the strong demand for him.
Little Mac:
Little Mac has made big strides since the last analysis. He is now within striking distance of K. Rool, and has over 50 votes over the character that is in sixth place on the poll. Little Mac is definitely within the Top 5 most wanted characters in the West. Little Mac being where he is mostly due to being the most iconic character for a long-running Punch-Out series. The NES Punch-Out remains one of the most popular titles for the console, and the Wii installment was very well-received. With a series that began in 1984, and has had five installments, Little Mac is probably the best candidate for a newcomer for a series that has yet to have a playable character in Smash Bros. Due to his very high popularity in the West, like all the other characters mentioned so far, he has a good chance of being among the first newcomers unveiled for Smash 4 at E3 2013.
Waluigi:
Waluigi made massive strides since the last analysis. However, I strongly doubt Waluigi is the sixth-most wanted character for Smash 4. The very strong performance for Waluigi in the poll right now can be pointed to Shortie posting the poll at 4chan (of which Waluigi is extremely popular due to his meme and troll status amongst Nintendo characters). Looking at polls held at other websites, Waluigi's popularity is usually on par with other characters (on GameFAQs) or on par with Paper Mario (on SmashBoards). He is definitely not the sixth most wanted character for Smash 4 (or the seventh, or the eighth, or even the ninth). I think his performance in this poll had it not been for the 4channers would be behind Roy and Shulk, and around where Ghirahim is (probably slightly behind). Of all the popularly requested characters, Waluigi probably has the most detractors, and is the least likely to get in Smash 4. He will probably reprise his role as an Assist Trophy though due to high popularity.
Isaac:
Regardless of being seventh place on this poll right now, I don't think there is any doubt in my mind that overall Isaac is the sixth most wanted newcomer for Smash 4 in the West. Since the last time I did an analysis, Isaac has further cemented himself as the sixth-most wanted character by having an even larger lead over Palutena (over 30 votes). The Golden Sun series is probably the most popular Nintendo series aside from Punch-Out that has yet to have a playable character in Smash Bros., and Isaac remains by far the most popular main character of that series. As I said before, it really speaks volumes about how much Isaac's fanbase has held up over the years. As with Ridley, there have been people asking for him for Smash Bros. for over a decade. After E3 2013, Isaac stands a strong chances of being among the Top 5 most wanted characters for Smash 4.
Palutena:
As with Isaac, she fell to eighth-place since last time, however, I feel she is definitely overall the seventh-most wanted character for Smash 4. She is definitely by far the most wanted female newcomer for Smash 4, and overall by far the most likely. She has a solid lead over Roy and Shulk in the poll now. She stands a very good chance at being among the first newcomers unveiled at E3 2013 too. There is not much else to say about her.
Roy:
Roy's position stayed the same relative to the last even with the Waluigi surge. However, ignoring Waluigi's surge, Roy's eighth place in the poll, and slightly ahead of Shulk. As I said last time, Roy being within the Top 10 most wanted characters for Smash 4 should not come as a surprise. He is basically Mewtwo on a smaller scale. In Japan, demand is even stronger for Roy (probably the most wanted character there after Mewtwo). As with Palutena, there is nothing much else to say about Roy this time since he basically stayed the same relative to last time (with the exception of moving past Shulk).
Shulk:
Shulk's position pretty much stated the same with the exception of Roy catching up to him. As I said last time, I think the primary reason why there is not more interest in Shulk is due to the low availability of Xenoblade and how few people played the game he was featured in relative to nearly every other character on this list. Its impressive that Shulk is as high as he is considering Xenoblade was not a big sales hit. If it turns out Shulk is the main protagonist of X (or has some sort of importance in it), his support has the potential to increase further.
Ghirahim:
Yet another character whose position has remained relatively consistent. The only character he has passed up compared to last time was Takamaru. As I mentioned last time, I think Ghirahim is where he is due to that Skyward Sword was not received as well as previous 3D home console Zelda games. Ghirahim will probably continue to enjoy high levels of support until we first see the next home console Zelda. If Link is shown having his Skyward Sword design at E3 2013, then the Ghirahim fanbase has the potential to grow, or at least become much more confident.
Chrom:
Chrom has done much better relative to last time. Last time he had the same amount of votes as Zoroark, and was only less 10 votes ahead of Toad, Saki, Geno, Krystal, and Dixie Kong. He was also behind Pac-Man, Bowser Jr., and Takamaru. Now he is within striking distance of even Ghirahim. Like with Shulk, Chrom is basically riding on the accolades of his source material game. It will be curious to see if Chrom's popularity lasts since there is still skepticism about what he could bring to Smash Bros. However, Chrom has definitely separated himself from Zoroark.
Bowser Jr.:
Although Bowser Jr. is basically 100 votes behind Waluigi, he has done a bit better compared to last time. He is further ahead of Pac-Man than he was last time, and he even managed to pass up Takamaru. Like with Waluigi, there is now a generation of Mario fans that have grown up without knowing what the series was like without that character's presence. Bowser Jr. has basically served as the main antagonist for several of the Mario platformers he has been in (although Bowser is always the final boss in them). Bowser Jr. is definitely a popular choice for Smash Bros., however, unlike many other characters, there is little else that can be done that could boost his support for Smash Bros. Although the same could also be said for Paper Mario and Toad.
Takamaru:
One of the biggest losers compared to the last time I did an analysis on this poll. Last time, Takamaru was 11th place on the poll, and was basically on par with Waluigi (only one vote behind) and less than 10 votes behind Roy. Now, Takamaru has fallen much, much further behind Waluigi and Roy, and a slew of other characters have left him in the dust such as Ghirahim, Chrom, and Bowser Jr. Pac-Man and Geno are also within five votes of passing him up as well. It seems to be that although Takamaru is by far the most popular retro character for Smash Bros., it seems that he may only be a popular choice among avid Smash Bros. or Nintendo fans. To many people, he is pretty much unknown. Probably the most played game featuring him is Nintendo Land. Despite Takamaru's much lower position on the list, he is definitely among the most likely potential newcomers to be shown at E3 2013. For those curious, relative to Pit (before he was confirmed), Takamaru is definitely less requested. This is perhaps even worse when considering that most of Smash 4's potential newcomers don't compare to the newcomer pool that Brawl had. However, going for Pit, he had two games released in the West, and the Smash Bros. fanbase knew who he was from his trophy in Melee. By comparison, the only exposure Western players have had to Takamaru is Samurai Warriors 3 (which was a niche release in the West) and Nintendo Land.
Pac-Man:
Pac-Man's position is pretty much the same as compared to last time with the exception that he has now left Zoroark, Toad, Saki, Krystal, and Dixie Kong in the dust. He is very close to to Takamaru's position in the poll right now. As said before, it really shows how low demand is for another third-party character aside from Mega Man that Pac-Man is not higher than he is. Pac-Man stands a good chance of being shown at E3 2013 if Namco managed to get Sakurai to agree to include one of their characters (it will pretty much be him or a Tales character).
Geno:
Geno is another character that has done much better compared to last time. Last time he was among the lowest characters in the poll, with the only ones lower than him being Saki, Krystal, and Dixie Kong (and with him being only one or two votes ahead of them), and of course the three main bottom tier characters (Black Shadow, Waddle Dee, and Mona). Now, Geno has blown past Saki, Zoroark, Krystal, Toad, Samurai Goroh, and Dixie Kong. That he is very competitive with Pac-Man and Takamaru shows that a fraction of his fanbase from the pre-Brawl days still survives, though much, much smaller. Super Mario RPG, like other popular RPGs for the SNES, will continue to have a large cult following for years to come.
Saki:
Saki has been a bit more successful compared to last time. Saki was pretty much on par with Dixie Kong and Krystal for votes last time, and overall behind every other character on the poll with the exception of Samurai Goroh, Black Shadow, Waddle Dee, and Mona. Since then, he is now ahead of the rest as far as Zoroark, Krystal, Toad, and Samurai Goroh are concerned (though from Saki to Samurai Goroh there is a less than 10 vote difference).
Zoroark:
Zoroark has done much worse compared to last time. He is no longer competitive with Chrom, Pac-Man, or Bowser Jr. for votes, and characters that were behind him such as Geno and Saki have also passed him up. As I mentioned last time, I think Zoroark's popularity is just going to depreciate further the closer we get to Pokemon X/Y and the next Pokemon movie (which co-stars Mewtwo). Zoroark is still the most popular Black/White Pokemon (though the movie with Genesect may change that), however, his popularity is only going to shrink further from here on out.
Krystal:
Like Saki, Krystal has done a bit better this time. She is now competitive with Zoroark and on par with Toad. Due to Dixie Kong's poor performance compared to last time, I believe Krystal to be overall the second most wanted female newcomer (or at least in the West). She faces the problem in that her source material (ignoring Command which is often regarded as having by far her worst role in the series) is fading from memory (Assault was released eight years ago), and the legacy of the post-64 Star Fox games has been sour. There have been rumors of a new Star Fox game lately, and if it does exist, it will probably be shown at E3 2013. However, such a new title could be a double-edged sword. If the new game does have Krystal in it, she could quickly become the most wanted female newcomer for Smash 4 (especially if Palutena ends up being confirmed at E3 2013) and even re-capture some of her pre-Brawl thunder, however, if she is appears to be absent from the new title (it ends up being a reboot), then that will basically mean her fanbase will depreciate further than it already has. If no new Star Fox game is announced at E3 2013, her situation will probably remain constant compared to where it is now.
Toad:
Things are really bad for this little guy. The fact that he is much further behind the likes of Geno and Waluigi, and not even competitive with Bowser Jr., shows that there is a perception of him that he cannot shake off despite being a playable character in a main Mario title that was among the best selling game during this generation. I believe that for many Mario fans that grew up during the Nintendo 64 and GameCube eras, they have not known Toad to be able to have a combative role, and see the character as a coward who is afraid to fight, or simply bland and uninteresting. Regardless, the fact that the New Super Mario Bros. games have not done more for Toad is really bad for the character. If two very popular and well-received mainline Mario titles cannot boost support for him past other Mario characters, what can? The character is incredibly popular among Mario fans (especially Mario Kart fans) and female fans of the series, however, it seems among Smash Bros. fans, there is simply less interest in him than any other possible Mario newcomer.
Samurai Goroh:
Samurai Goroh has done slightly better compared to last time. Last time, he was behind every other character with the exceptions of Black Shadow, Waddle Dee, and Mona. Now he is basically competitive with the other low tier characters in this poll (within 10 votes of Saki for example, who is at the top of the low-tier characters). As with Krystal, Samurai Goroh faces the problem that his source material is fading from memory. Again like Krystal, the main thing that can be done to help (get more fan interest) Goroh is a new game announcement, though that is pretty unlikely. Samurai Goroh is definitely still the preferred choice for a second F-Zero character, however, lately there does not appear to be demand for a second playable F-Zero character, especially compared to years past.
Dixie Kong:
Dixie Kong is in trouble. I mentioned last time that she would eventually be doing better once K. Rool is confirmed, however, even still she should not be as low as she is right now. She is at least 10 votes below the lowest low-tier character in this poll (Samurai Goroh), and a bottom-tier character (Black Shadow) is less than 20 votes away from her. Do many K. Rool fans feel threatened by Dixie Kong? Or do many DK fans who grew up on the N64 and GameCube simply unfamiliar with her? Even still, the GBA ports and Virtual Console re-releases should of at least exposed to her to a new generation of fans. I think overall she is the third-most wanted female characters for Smash 4 (at least in the West), and that no other female character comes close to her for her third place, so she at least has that. I think Dixie Kong would probably be massively helped by a new appearance in a game, even if its something small like being a playable character again in another Mario spinoff. If the rumored Diddy Kong Racing Wii U is real, she could easily become the most wanted female newcomer for Smash 4 (especially if Palutena is also confirmed at E3 2013). Dixie Kong has the most to gain of any character due to outside factors (a K. Rool confirmation and a new game appearance) in regards to increasing interest in her.
Black Shadow:
Black Shadow has easily fared much better than the other two bottom-tier characters in this poll. He is 20 votes ahead of Mona, and more 10 votes ahead of Waddle Dee. However, he is still far away from any other character with the possible except of Dixie Kong. He suffers more than Goroh due to the lack of any new F-Zero releases, since Goroh at least has some prominence within Smash Bros. Overall, the low position of these two F-Zero characters shows just how little demand there is for a F-Zero newcomer.
Waddle Dee:
Waddle Dee at least now has a bit of a lead over Mona (last time he was ahead by only two votes). However, now he is no longer even competitive with Black Shadow. Despite the character of Bandana Dee offering a lot of promise for a moveset and his recent prominence within the Kirby series, it seems a lot of people are skeptical about the character, and largely feel he is just a generic enemy. He seems to have the same problem as Toad though on a more pronounced level.
Mona:
Mona has fallen behind both of the other bottom-tier characters. There is just no interest in a second playable Wario character (Captain Syrup was an option in the poll over at SmashBoards, and she performed as poorly as Mona is doing now).
