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[Obliterator]

I'm thinking Xbone will take October but they certainly have a deficit to climb out of from the first half of the month.

I think Halo 5 will be enough to do it, but we'll see

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

Sports games debuting so high has always baffled me. I watch both NBA and the NFL pretty religiously but its the only genres I have never had any desire to play since the good ole Genesis days and that was only when my QB was a pig mutant werewolf.

I'm thinking Xbone will take October but they certainly have a deficit to climb out of from the first half of the month.

I think Halo 5 will be enough to do it, but we'll see

October is definitely their best chance but SW + Pricedrop and bundles makes me think Sony could still take it.

 

[Alo0oy]

Digital sales likely have to be higher given BB was a free download included with every PS4 sale in Japan for a the last several months before the MGSV bundle. I think you're still overshooting ROW a bit.

That's just an approximate number, it could be anywhere from 300k to 600k, the PS4 sold about ~100k in Japan during that promotion before the price cut (I think the promotion lasted about two months, the MGS5 bundle didn't include it as well iirc). Digital sales in Europe and the US could be anywhere from 200k to 400k. But that still doesn't change my point that software sales for RotW can be nearly as big as the US or Europe, slightly different exact figures don't change that.

 

[sörine]

~400k in Europe from the report thread, ~600k in US (from memory here, can't find the numbers, other than 389k in March), 129k in Japan from last numbers in media create, but lets say with the free promo and all 200k in Japan.

~1.2 million for Japan, US, Europe, not including Digital.

of the first million sold WW 150k was digital according to Sony, so say 15% WW digital sales, so 300k digital out of 2 million...

so lets say of the 1.2 million 15% can be added as digital. which gives about 1.38million. leaving roughly 600k for ROTW (including digital),

So not 900k then, around 600k, based on assumptions and numbers that might not be correct.

Famitsu has Bloodborne at 200k retail. Also hardware sales for the free BB window should be over 100k on it's own, so that's 300k+ Japan before even getting into regular digital sales, which were high iirc going by Famitsu.

Attributing everything not counted to ROW when we don't even have full coverage for the main markets seems flawed in general though imo. That's what Chartz does, we shouldn't do it too.

 

[Mister Megative]

You might say...it went Uncharted.

10/10

 

[Alo0oy]

Famitsu has Bloodborne at 200k retail. Also hardware sales for the free BB window should be over 100k on it's own, so that's 300k+ Japan before even getting into regular digital sales, which were high iirc going by Famitsu.

Attributing everything not counted to ROW when we don't even have full coverage for the main markets seems flawed in general though imo. That's what Chartz does, we shouldn't do it too.

We have approximate numbers from Japan, & exact retail numbers from the US & Europe, we're not putting an exact figure on RotW, just that's in the same ballpark as the other big ones. Even if it sold less than 500k-600k, it's still in the same ballpark as the US & EU.

Rest of the world is a big place, one small individual market like Russia won't change much, but 100 countries do add up when the game sells 5k on average in each one. That's why some games sell mysteriously well despite not being close to that number in the three main markets.

 

[Paganmoon]

Famitsu has Bloodborne at 200k retail. Also hardware sales for the free BB window should be over 100k on it's own, so that's 300k+ Japan before even getting into regular digital sales, which were high iirc going by Famitsu.

Attributing everything not counted to ROW when we don't even have full coverage for the main markets seems flawed in general though imo. That's what Chartz does, we shouldn't do it too.

200k retail for Japan actually works well with the above calculation as I added the 15% (assumed) digital sales on top of the Euro/US/Japan numbers anyway. Now, one could rightly argue that Euro/US/Japan probably have a higher digital sale than the rest of the world and the 15% isn't quite right, but again, it's assumptions, to give an approximate number for ROTW, which can be anywhere between 400-600k, which isn't an insignificant amount, considering it's between Euro and US sales.

Anyway, US NPD, so not really a place to discuss WW numbers anyway.

 

[Dead Prince]

Sports games debuting so high has always baffled me. I watch both NBA and the NFL pretty religiously but its the only genres I have never had any desire to play since the good ole Genesis days and that was only when my QB was a pig mutant werewolf.



October is definitely their best chance but SW + Pricedrop and bundles makes me think Sony could still take it.

the gap will probably be minimal. but still. it should be a good month.

 

[Nameless]

I think Halo 5 releases too late in the month to overcome PS4's price drop. Plus a TON of Halo fans, especially the type who consider the series a system-seller, already took the plunge last year with the price drops + MCC + the Halo 5 Beta.

 

[faridmon]

So PS4 won?

What a childish thing to write. I hope to good you aren't a full fledged adult yet.

 

[N.Domixis]

I'm thinking Xbone will take October but they certainly have a deficit to climb out of from the first half of the month.

I think Halo 5 will be enough to do it, but we'll see

you actually think xbox will have a huge gap this month? It's probably going to be a small gap, ps4 had it's first price cut in 2 years.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I predicted a way bigger gap between PS4 and XB1.
I doubted the XB1 victory some times, and i still have my doubt, but i'm gonna say XB1 will win October by adecent margin. No a good margin like 40-50k, but not even only 7-10k.

 

[le.phat]

What a childish thing to write. I hope to good you aren't a full fledged adult yet.

Get of your high horse, discussing who sold the most ( aka "won") during the month is one of the things inherent to NPD threads.

 

[Obliterator]

you actually think xbox will have a huge gap this month? It's probably going to be a small gap, ps4 had it's first price cut in 2 years.

I am genuinely curious where in my post you see anything that says a huge gap?

Like I mean bro, there is nothing in my post that even remotely says that

 

[N.Domixis]

I am genuinely curious where in my post you see anything that says a huge gap?

Like I mean bro, there is nothing in my post that even remotely says that

You are right, I think I mid quoted the wrong person lol

 

[Obliterator]

You are right, I think I mid quoted the wrong person lol

Its all good lol, I wasn't mad or anything haha just confused

 

[fastmower]

What a childish thing to write. I hope to good you aren't a full fledged adult yet.

Ummmm... Pot kettle much?

 

[Javin98]

I predicted a way bigger gap between PS4 and XB1.
I doubted the XB1 victory some times, and i still have my doubt, but i'm gonna say XB1 will win October by adecent margin. No a good margin like 40-50k, but not even only 7-10k.

Yeah, I predicted a huge gap between the PS4 and XB1 too and the actual gap was only aboit half of that. But anyway, I still think it's too early to predict the winner for October, yet alone the gap between the two.

 

[Obliterator]

Yeah, I predicted a huge gap between the PS4 and XB1 too and the actual gap was only aboit half of that. But anyway, I still think it's too early to predict the winner for October, yet alone the gap between the two.

Yeah its still way up in the air. I'm just not sure if an "only" 50 cut will be enough to overcome the biggest exclusive launch of the year and the 1st real current gen Halo game. We will see. Exciting stuff ahead

 

[sörine]

We have approximate numbers from Japan, & exact retail numbers from the US & Europe, we're not putting an exact figure on RotW, just that's in the same ballpark as the other big ones. Even if it sold less than 500k-600k, it's still in the same ballpark as the US & EU.

Rest of the world is a big place, one small individual market like Russia won't change much, but 100 countries do add up when the game sells 5k on average in each one. That's why some games sell mysteriously well despite not being close to that number in the three main markets.

My point is even saying 400-500k or 500-600k (why's it keep getting higher?) is a massive and inherently flawed assuption. US isn't the only NA market and CA alone is usually ~10%, similarly most PAL figures we get don't cover the entire region but just the biggest markets (UK, DE, FR, ES, etc). The 3 major markets almost always encompass more than the loose figures we can glean for them, throwing everything not counted at ROW (after some more fuzzy digital attributing) is a recipe for disaster.

I'm not sure where exactly this ROW holy grail came from, and why it seems to be a talking point pushed SO HARD by mainly PS4 proponents, but it's something we can't really quantify. Definitely not to the point where anyone can claim a quarter or more of Bloodborne sales came from it.

 

[Primethius]

Only reason (and I know this is a bit of a stretch) that I won't rule out a large gap for October in favor of the X1 is the disparity in sales last November, which I along with others severely underestimated.

Don't want to make the same mistake with Halo, which is already a juggernaut. Launch day hype rolls around and I dunno, I expect pretty crazy X1 numbers to be honest.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Yeah, I predicted a huge gap between the PS4 and XB1 too and the actual gap was only aboit half of that. But anyway, I still think it's too early to predict the winner for October, yet alone the gap between the two.

Well, at this point we only can see what Amazon monthly chart will become by end of month...

 

[Ombala]

What a childish thing to write. I hope to good you aren't a full fledged adult yet.

What seems too be the problem sir?

 

[Obliterator]

One thing to factor for Halo boost will be reviews. I think this is one game where they actually could have a rather large impact.

The game needs to be good

 

[Paganmoon]

One thing to factor for Halo boost will be reviews. I think this is one game where they actually could have a rather large impact.

The game needs to be good

I'd think Halo would be the franchise to sell gangbusters no matter how it reviews actually.

 

[djplaeskool]

You might say...it went Uncharted.

YEEEEEEEEEEEAH/10

 

[Mister Megative]

Seems like many people seem to be settling on 340k for PS4 and 284k for Xbox. Looking at the math, seems right to me. When not comparing it to a September which saw a bundle for the biggest IP launch in history, these are strong, above-average September sales and either right in line or exceeding the predictions of most GAFers, myself included. Doom bypassed. Looking forward to the playoffs.

 

[Intrigue]

You might say...it went Uncharted.

It would be amazing if it charted 1 month before it was released and sold, since it released in Oct

 

[Obliterator]

I'd think Halo would be the franchise to sell gangbusters no matter how it reviews actually.

I normally would too except the trust factor is gone for the franchise. Halo 4 was very divisive and its population count nosedived shortly after launch. MCC was just an outright clusterfuck. Then you have 3 massive 1st person games hitting within weeks of it in BO3, BF, and FO4.

No matter what it will sell "good" but in order to be in line with historical sales for the franchise it has to deliver. If it doesn't I think we should be prepared for a pretty significant decline in sales volume

 

[Blood Diamonds]

What a childish thing to write. I hope to good you aren't a full fledged adult yet.

wtf? grow tf up

 

[Dinjooh]

What a childish thing to write. I hope to good you aren't a full fledged adult yet.

Calling someone childish based on that seems incredibly.... childish.

 

[onanie]

It would be amazing if it charted 1 month before it was released and sold, since it released in Oct

That would be uncharted territory

 

[Rymuth]

What a childish thing to write. I hope to good you aren't a full fledged adult yet.

What seems to be the problem, gentleman?

 

[Javin98]

Yeah its still way up in the air. I'm just not sure if an "only" 50 cut will be enough to overcome the biggest exclusive launch of the year and the 1st real current gen Halo game. We will see. Exciting stuff ahead

One thing's for sure. October will be interesting!

Well, at this point we only can see what Amazon monthly chart will become by end of month...

Yeah, unfortunately, Amazon is our most reliable source. Abdiel is also quite reliable, so I will be waiting for his insight as well before making my prediction.

 

[Alo0oy]

My point is even saying 400-500k or 500-600k (why's it keep getting higher?) is a massive and inherently flawed assuption. US isn't the only NA market and CA alone is usually ~10%, similarly most PAL figures we get don't cover the entire region but just the biggest markets (UK, DE, FR, ES, etc). The 3 major markets almost always encompass more than the loose figures we can glean for them, throwing everything not counted at ROW (after some more fuzzy digital attributing) is a recipe for disaster.

I'm not sure where exactly this ROW holy grail came from, and why it seems to be a talking point pushed SO HARD by mainly PS4 proponents, but it's something we can't really quantify. Definitely not to the point where anyone can claim a quarter or more of Bloodborne sales came from it.

You're missing my point. Forget the exact figures for a moment, the original argument was that software sales in RotW can be quite substantial, possibly as high as one of the big 3, selling 300k or 600k in RotW doesn't change that argument one bit, the only thing that changes this argument is if Blooodborne somehow sold nearly as well digitally as it did on retail, which is unprecedented.

 

[N.Domixis]

Only reason (and I know this is a bit of a stretch) that I won't rule out a large gap for October in favor of the X1 is the disparity in sales last November, which I along with others severely underestimated.

Don't want to make the same mistake with Halo, which is already a juggernaut. Launch day hype rolls around and I dunno, I expect pretty crazy X1 numbers to be honest.

But that happened due to the insane deals. Now ps4 is 350 with good bundles.

 

[timlot]

I'm thinking Xbone will take October but they certainly have a deficit to climb out of from the first half of the month.

I think Halo 5 will be enough to do it, but we'll see

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Was in Gamestop the other day picking up my Lunar White XB1 controller and saw two customer buying PS4 Uncharted bundles. I know its my little anecdotal, but its the first time in months I've actually seen someone buying a console while I was in a store.

 

[Obliterator]

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Was in Gamestop the other day picking up my Lunar White XB1 controller and say two customer buying PS4 Uncharted bundles. I know its my little anecdotal, but its the first time in months I've actually seen someone buying a console while I was in a store.

Gonna be interesting no doubt

 

[Primethius]

But that happened due to the insane deals. Now ps4 is 350 with good bundles.

While that's true, I just don't want to underestimate Halo and the MS marketing machine.

It's the first major entry on a new console in one of the biggest exclusive IPs around. If it gets stellar reviews (likely given everything shown so far), it could provide a sizable boost to the X1.

I'm not saying anything conclusively either way. All I'm really saying is that October is going to be very, very interesting.

 

[faridmon]

Yes, I have problem with winning when i comes to sales. Shouldn't that be phrased differently?

 

[N.Domixis]

While that's true, I just don't want to underestimate Halo and the MS marketing machine.

It's the first major entry on a new console in one of the biggest exclusive IPs around. If it gets stellar reviews (likely given everything shown so far), it could provide a sizable boost to the X1.

I'm not saying anything conclusively either way. All I'm really saying is that October is going to be very, very interesting.

The same can be said for ps4s price it, can't underestimate the first official pricecut.

 

[Curufinwe]

I actually bought my 2nd PS4 yesterday because my wife wanted to play the Uncharted games after only having watched me play them on PS3.

 

[benny_a]

Yes, I have problem with winning when i comes to sales. Shouldn't that be phrased differently?

They were better in capturing the imaginations and contents of the wallets of several ten thousands of humans with hopes and dreams, than their direct competitors.

 

[mckmas8808]

From a financial standpoint they are making the correct move. The PES and MGSV sales are a perfect example why.

They are in business to make money.

As a gamer, it sucks but I see their decision for what it is

How do you know MGSV isn't going to make Konami money? It made at at least $180 million in revenue in one month.

If a third does to Konami that's $60 million before the DLC.

 

[kinoki]

While that's true, I just don't want to underestimate Halo and The MS marketing machine.

It's the first major entry on a new console in one of the biggest exclusive IPs around. If it gets stellar reviews (likely given everything shown so far), it could provide a sizable boost to the X1.

I'm not saying conclusively either way. All I'm really saying is that October is going to be very, very interesting.

What'll sell best on the XBO: Star Wars Battlefront or Halo 5: Guardians? I'm honestly curious.

 

[Kill3r7]

Gonna be interesting no doubt

The playoffs always are.

What'll sell best on the XBO: Star Wars Battlefront or Halo 5: Guardians? I'm honestly curious.

Halo 5. If it is close it means that Halo 5 was a huge disappointment sales-wise (NPD only).

 

[watdaeff4]

How do you know MGSV isn't going to make Konami money? It made at at least $180 million in revenue in one month.

If a third does to Konami that's $60 million before the DLC.

Didn't say it's not going to make them money.

You should check out the business concept known as "opportunity cost"

Then it will make sense to you.

 

[Kyoufu]

I'd be very, very surprised if Halo 5 doesn't boost Xbone to the victory pole for October.

 

[Omnistalgic]

I think X1 and PS4 will be neglible differences for October. Last year, flash sales and MCC sold a lot of Xbones to fans of Halo I think. This year, with even pricing, and UCC, and i gather PS4 will have a nice bump along with X1, and whoever wins will be in the 10-15k bracket and just get the PR speech for the month. Sales wise I think they will be pretty close. Halo will likely debut huge, perhaps not a 700k hardware spike huge but will be strong all year into next.

 

[Primethius]

The same can be said for ps4s price it, can't underestimate the first official pricecut.

I'm not underestimating that. I think it'll be a pretty massive for the PS4 too. But I suppose it's hard to tell with the limited data we have (which is really only just Amazon and select retail insiders).

What'll sell best on the XBO: Star Wars Battlefront or Halo 5: Guardians? I'm honestly curious.

If I had to bet on something, it would be Halo 5. I wouldn't rule out Star Wars simply because of Force Awakens hype (that damn trailer was so good) but I think the Xbox brand in the NA at this point is largely Halo driven.