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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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Baroin can get the Lion's share, Mélenchon might get solid numbers, but a majority is not going to happen.
KonradLaw
Member
God no, I meant among those that vote for Macron. FN voters obviously have much stronger feelings. Sorry if that wasn't clear in my previous post.
LR's presidential run may hurt them in the legislative election.EM is probably going to win over 200 seats in June,but they may be hurt a bit by their level of organization .Including the presidency bonus they could win as many as 250 seats if they are lucky.No politicalparty will probably end up winning the majority of seats in June.
Alx
Member
As a matter of fact les Echos published a first poll about the Législatives today, and even if "En Marche" doesn't get a majority, they're stil ahead.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2...it-de-249-a-286-deputes-en-marche-sondage.php
expected number of seats to each party (range):
En Marche ! : 249 - 286
Les Républicains + UDI : 200 - 210
PS : 28 - 43
FN : 15 - 25
Front de Gauche : 6 - 8
Of course there's still a lot to clarify until then, but Macron's side doesn't start with a handicap.
Yeah funny thing about Macron's case, is that because he lacks visible charisma, it's only when he's attacked that he gets the opportunity to score some points.
I'll admit that I didn't like him from the beginning, but there were three moments when he got my respect in that campaign, and funnily enough all three were triggered by Le Pen :
- first was his answer to her during the 5-ways debate (the "ventriloques" moment, even if it was at least half prepared since he used the word in previous meetings)
- second was Whirlpool when he was forced to face the workers on strike
- third was his reaction during yesterday's debate (he did use a few low jabs too, but everything considered he held his own)
"C'est au pied du mur qu'on voit le maçon", too bad that as a president we may only see him through speeches and formal events, for which he's terrible.
Blackpuppy
Member
A lot of them are not new, the En Marche candidate in my circo is an ex PS elected.
For local elections, parties don't necessarily mean much.
There are two rounds for these elections too, so usually their adversaries find a way to share the seats and beat the FN.
Alx
Member
The seats aren't proportional to the global support of the population, each one is elected through the equivalent of a "local presidential election" (two rounds unless there is an absolute majority on the first round).
Since on the second round most parties team up against the FN, they can only get seats in their strong areas where they're at 50+% already.
Polls are imo completely irrelevant when what will matter are the negotiations between the different parties and it will be VERY circonscription dependant
Like the municipal elections you can be at the 2nd turn with 12.5%, in some area it could very well end up with 5 candidates staying (PS, FN, Républicains, Front de Gauche) and the elected deputee only having around 30% of the votes.
And let's not forget the dissidents that we will have even more than usual thanks to said negotiations.
Like the municipal elections you can be at the 2nd turn with 12.5%, in some area it could very well end up with 5 candidates staying (PS, FN, Républicains, Front de Gauche) and the elected deputee only having around 30% of the votes.
And let's not forget the dissidents that we will have even more than usual thanks to said negotiations.
The die hard don't, some die hard macron should shut up too when they don't know what they are talking about, like why the fn rise and is at a majority near the border, but hey probably just racism and facism.
Your drive-by posts are really getting annoying.
Ho you are the one that responded at my last one only by the denie of holocaust, sure you can talk about drive-by post.
Palette Swap
Member
They're not 100% irrelevant in the sense that they can give you a broad idea of how a party would perform in a semi-vacuum and to what extent a presidential win can weigh on a parliamentary dynamic.
But yeah, they don't account for all the local elements (incumbents, negotiations, etc) that will really make the election in the end.
About yesterday, as expected, Macron won for 63% of people, and [/i]LePen won for 34% of people[/i]. People hear what they want to hear, and it won't move lines or change opinions.
I can't see it being meaningful.
I usually don't believe in polls between turns, but polls for an election before the previous one ended, before the campaign started AND polling people without being able to say anything on the people they'll be voting for (I mean, I don't think En Marche candidates have been officially chosen, beside a dozen?)... In an election where a difference of a small % vastly change the results?
I can't see it being meaningful.
During the debate marine le pen used an hoax about macron offshore account which came from russia
http://m.huffingtonpost.fr/2017/05/...n-sur_a_22068793/?ncid=tweetlnkfrhpmg00000001
http://m.huffingtonpost.fr/2017/05/...n-sur_a_22068793/?ncid=tweetlnkfrhpmg00000001
UnluckyKate
Member
And according to le monde, she made 19 false statements.
I hope you're right about this. After Wilders' failure in the Netherlands, that'd be some terrific news !
Continental Europe remaining sane amid this populist madness around the world.
I'd say the media plays a big part in this. Mainland Europe is quite different to US and UK in that regard.
Captain Smoker
Member
This and WW II / Nazi history.
Alx
Member
The interesting thing about it isn't even that people from Russia are pushing fake news (no shit, Sherlock), but that Le Pen seemed to be aware of that specific one before everybody else.
I agree, in that it can't be used as a projection of the final results. But it is interesting as a starting point, to check if a new party like EM has any chance or is considered as an anomaly in the political landscape.
Also I don't think the specific candidate changes much in most cases. From my experience people still vote mainly for a party in the Législatives, and don't focus much on the candidate (unlike Présidentielles and Municipales).
DarthMasta
Member
I hope Macron wins.
But I also hope that if he does his presidency doesn't turn into Hollande V2. From my POV in Portugal, it looked like the French (and not just the French) had high hopes for him, apparently a rational leftist, to inject some leftist policies into France and the EU. And it didn't happen, allowing for the FN to become ever more relevant.
A poor Macron presidency, whatever that might mean, could very well mean a FN win the next time around...
Or am I just ignorant of conditions in France?
But I also hope that if he does his presidency doesn't turn into Hollande V2. From my POV in Portugal, it looked like the French (and not just the French) had high hopes for him, apparently a rational leftist, to inject some leftist policies into France and the EU. And it didn't happen, allowing for the FN to become ever more relevant.
A poor Macron presidency, whatever that might mean, could very well mean a FN win the next time around...
Or am I just ignorant of conditions in France?
Blackpuppy
Member
In my opinion, Hollande was mostly the anti-Sarkozy vote. He became a candidate when the favored Socialist runner-up (DSK) was arrested in NY on rape charges.
He is unfortunately devoid of any charisma which I think was to his detriment. I honestly think that if he weren't so boring sounding and awkward in his body language, people wouldn't have hated him AS much.
front national will have gone from having a quarter of the vote shared of probably having more than forty percent on second round that's important everyone know le pen wasn't going to win this election. If everything remains the same is it very well might because the establishment parties in france will never tackle the problems that are driving the growth of populism,nativism nationalism and paleo conservatism to begin with.
Captain Smoker
Member
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/france/unemployment-rate (choose 10 y chart)
According to statistics the unemployment in France is slowly recovering from the 2008 crash, but it's still mostly flat since mid-2012.
But the trend in Europe is overall positive if nothing major happens, so this could help Macron (regardless of his politics?).
The growth of populism was driven by a perfect storm. Financial crisis, terrorist attacks, refugee crisis, Russia funding and propaganda, Brexit, Trump. This kind of perfect storm is something that happens once in a century (like in the 1930's).
Without Brexit and Trump we wouldn't even talk about a possible populist victory. On the other hand without Brexit and Trump a lot of rational people wouldn't have realised the danger of a populist victory.
And yet, this perfect storm hit a wall in continental Europe (Austria, The Netherlands and now France). When MLP will lose now the elections that storm will end.
It's almost impossible to recreate the same winning conditions in 4-5 years.
Without Brexit and Trump we wouldn't even talk about a possible populist victory. On the other hand without Brexit and Trump a lot of rational people wouldn't have realised the danger of a populist victory.
And yet, this perfect storm hit a wall in continental Europe (Austria, The Netherlands and now France). When MLP will lose now the elections that storm will end.
It's almost impossible to recreate the same winning conditions in 4-5 years.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Brexit winning is not entirely comparable to Trump winning, either. Candidates like Trump and Le Pen represent a 'bundle' of values - there's anti-globalization mixed in with racism mixed in with security worries and so on. Even though anti-globalist sentiment is probably a majority in most developed countries at this point, other aspects of the Trump/Le Pen bundles scare off some voters - they want anti-globalisation, but they don't want the outright racism or borderline fascism offered by Trump and Le Pen.
Brexit, however, was not a bundle, it was a single issue. You didn't have to put UKIP in power to get Brexit, and you could vote to kick anti-globalisation without (directly, at least) empowering the BNP or UKIP. So Brexit doing better than fascist parties is unsurprising; it had far larger appeal than a complete fascist party. Saying fascists are likely to win because of Brexit is kind of missing the point.
Trump is the only real major example of fascism actually seizing power.
Brexit, however, was not a bundle, it was a single issue. You didn't have to put UKIP in power to get Brexit, and you could vote to kick anti-globalisation without (directly, at least) empowering the BNP or UKIP. So Brexit doing better than fascist parties is unsurprising; it had far larger appeal than a complete fascist party. Saying fascists are likely to win because of Brexit is kind of missing the point.
Trump is the only real major example of fascism actually seizing power.
This but people like marcon or other Centrist won't accept these issues they will keep add more problems. that's why i was hoping mélenchon or someone like Sanders gone into second round they're more like candidate i would support
I was bundling them together because Brexit created the story of possible success of anti-system/extremist ideas. In the end anti-immigrant sentiments are maybe the main force behind both Brexit and Trump and the populist parties.
So while is not actually fascist seizing power, it empowered extremist ideas.
In the end neither Trump is an example of a fascist party winning elections, but rather a right wing party sliding dangerously towards extreme right. Which one can argue that it's happening in Britain too with Tories adopting quite a number of UKIP positions.
But yeah, only Trump so far is an example of a fascist leader elected in the western world.
Right, I remember some experts saying Marine Le Pen would get more votes this time around because 6 months wouldn't have been enough to see the effects of Brexit and Trump. In 5 years we will se how protectionism really worked for them.
Exactly. In 5 years it should be pretty obvious how the isolationism can work or not.
Zeus Molecules
illegal immigrants are stealing our air
Not just that half the reason (maybe more) for the populist madness was Russian influence. That influence is definitely not as strong now that people are aware of it and seeing the early (bad) result of populist leaders across the world.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
You can always count with Italy fucking shit up, though.
Then again, Itally gonna Italy and the M5S would probably collapse under its own lulz.
Then again, Itally gonna Italy and the M5S would probably collapse under its own lulz.
Italy manages to somehow function as country despite their political parties and governments since 70 years or so already. So nothing new there.
While not as strong as Municipals there are still very important local problematics that makes the candidate him/herself VERY important, you can't just drop anyone saying he's the candidate for PS/FDG/EM/LR and expect to win like that.
The deputee is still the deputee of an area where he was elected it's not a national election.
Eolz
Member
Obama did a video to support Macron
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/860111061340610561
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/860111061340610561
Palette Swap
Member
Macron is pressing charges on the Bahamas story (no idea against whom though).
And Marine got egged in Brittany because Brittany.
And Marine got egged in Brittany because Brittany.
Alx
Member
Don't jinx it Obama !
In other news, people threw eggs in Le Pen's direction during her visits today (they missed her).
Also there will be official investigations following the complaint for slander that Macron filed after the fake rumors on an off-shore account.
*e beaten.
Macron filed a complaint "contre X", so not against anybody in particular (until the investigation finds something of course)
In other news, people threw eggs in Le Pen's direction during her visits today (they missed her).
Also there will be official investigations following the complaint for slander that Macron filed after the fake rumors on an off-shore account.
*e beaten.
Macron filed a complaint "contre X", so not against anybody in particular (until the investigation finds something of course)
Seeing more and more people try to justify voting blank on Facebook lately.
I feel like it should matter in the first round (hold new elections with all new candidates if blank wins a plurality? Not sure what system would work best), but shouldn't be an option at all in the second round IMO. The second round is all about choosing one or the other.
Edit: also not quite sure what the point of the second round is in the legislatives. Had the presidential elections been held with the same system, we would also have had Fillon and Mélenchon, making for a clusterfuck of a second round with a high probability of someone being elected without a majority. Why the 12.5% floor rather than a top-two runoff?
I feel like it should matter in the first round (hold new elections with all new candidates if blank wins a plurality? Not sure what system would work best), but shouldn't be an option at all in the second round IMO. The second round is all about choosing one or the other.
or we could just switch to alternative voting
Edit: also not quite sure what the point of the second round is in the legislatives. Had the presidential elections been held with the same system, we would also have had Fillon and Mélenchon, making for a clusterfuck of a second round with a high probability of someone being elected without a majority. Why the 12.5% floor rather than a top-two runoff?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Abolish the presidency and use a Parliamentary system. de Gaulle was a quasi-Trumpian autocrat, there's no need to abide by the inane system of the Fifth Republic. Then all this "AV or not to AV" is irrelevant.
Golden_Pigeon
Banned
With those polls about legislatives results, it's crazy that we can say now that PS has become "En marche"... I hope that will left more space in the PS for the Hamon kind of stance.
Yeah anecdotal evidence indicates that Macron will pick up a few more abstentionists and undecided, and that's pretty much it. Maybe some reluctant Le Pen voters will reconsider also.
Hopefully that's enough to get her under 40% at least.
BlackLagoon
Member
What is the feeling within France about the transition from the 4th to 5th republic, anyway? Because as an outsider, it seems like a pitiful admission of defeat. That the politicians are too garbage to work together for the good of the country, so lets just cover up the dysfunction with the shiny veneer of a strong executive.Abolish the presidency and use a Parliamentary system. de Gaulle was a quasi-Trumpian autocrat, there's no need to abide by the inane system of the Fifth Republic. Then all this "AV or not to AV" is irrelevant.
Palette Swap
Member
I guess the strongman impulse behind the fifth is partly overshadowed by De Gaulle's character. We rationalize it by saying we're jacobin contrarians with monarchic impulses.
But yeah, this also means we focus our attention on the executive and its failings.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
You're probably joking but I agree with you. I don't like the idea of a powerful president. Laws should be scrutinized from various different viewpoints before they become law, it makes for better laws. A president writing down decrees goes directly against that.Abolish the presidency and use a Parliamentary system. de Gaulle was a quasi-Trumpian autocrat, there's no need to abide by the inane system of the Fifth Republic. Then all this "AV or not to AV" is irrelevant.
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