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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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Chibrou

Member
What is Bams thinking here, Macron has a 20% lead, a fantastic debate under his belt and just has to coast until Sunday, fucking wait 3 days man.

-I support Macron
-He has been elected yesterday.
-Oh crap.

(i see what you mean, but we have already half of europe giving their opinion, who cares at that point ?)
 

Magni

Member
Abolish the presidency and use a Parliamentary system. de Gaulle was a quasi-Trumpian autocrat, there's no need to abide by the inane system of the Fifth Republic. Then all this "AV or not to AV" is irrelevant.

:p

Well, that'd depend on how the MPs are elected. If it's single seat constituencies like the current National Assembly, then the question remains.
 

Ac30

Member
-I support Macron
-He has been elected yesterday.
-Oh crap.

(i see what you mean, but we have already half of europe giving their opinion, who cares at that point ?)

Did any of them shoot endorsement videos for EM though? :/ Many people will see this as electoral interference (even though he's not president he still holds an outsized amount of influence)
 

Magni

Member
Did any of them shoot endorsement videos for EM though? :/ Many people will see this as electoral interference (even though he's not president he still holds an outsized amount of influence)

Not videos, but endorsements in newspapers, yes. I read two from Varoufakis (former Greek minister of the economy) and Sigmar Gabriel (current German foreign minister) in yesterday's edition of Le Monde for example.

Neither have the same stature as Obama of course. That said, I found both interesting, especially Gabriel's - he made the case that Macron will force Germany to change its European policy, and he says that'll be a welcome change. Varoufakis talked about working with Macron during the banking crisis they had, and how Macron tried to help the Greeks out until Merkel had Hollande sideline him from those talks.
 

Irminsul

Member
Not videos, but endorsements in newspapers, yes. I read two from Varoufakis (former Greek minister of the economy) and Sigmar Gabriel (current German foreign minister) in yesterday's edition of Le Monde for example.
Hm, I wonder whether this endorsement can be found anywhere in its original (presumably) German. My French probably isn't good enough and it's not available for free at Le Monde's website anyway...
 

Green Yoshi

Member
Le Pen's loss will be the final proof the populist wave in EU has crashed

That's a very naive way of thinking. Nobody expected her to win in the second round anyway so she has basically nothing to lose. Of course, if the result will be 75% vs. 25%, then it looks bad for her. As long as the Front National is not in charge it is not responsible for anything that goes wrong. Trump and Farage were much more popular before the election than they are now. As well in the Netherlands Pim Fortuyn List as in Austria FPÖ both lost a lot of voters after they became part of the government.

If the Five Star Movement in Italy seriously underperforms in the next elections, then the populist wave in EU has crashed.
 
Macron is "surfing" on populism as well. It's the common denominator of all the big player of this french election. Everybody is "anti-system".
Except my boy Hamon.
 

Alx

Member
Ifop is just +1%, he was at 60 yesterday. It's also an aggregate of the last three days, so a potential effect of the debate would be diluted anyway.
But everything considered it's still good to see. :)
 

KooopaKid

Banned
I said before that I wouldn't post anymore in political threads on GAF, but as a French person and as someone who likes some talking points of the FN (Mostly regarding how the EU works, UE lobby influence, sovereignty, popular referendum, proportionnal voting system, international diplomacy, immigration and security), I have to say Marine Le Pen was abysmal at yesterday's debate, she was doing okay before the EU topic but after that she was pathetic. She couldn't even explain properly the 2 currencies system (Which was pulled out of a hat 3 days ago, poudre de perlinpinpin indeed lol), it was all vague and very amateurish. After that, it was only attacks straight out of kindergarden.
It's a shame she represents the "patriots" (of all origins).
I never voted FN and never will until they, or someone else, are very rigorous and professional in their arguments. Until then, good riddance.
 

Slaythe

Member
I said before that I wouldn't post anymore in political threads on GAF, but as a French person and as someone who likes some talking points of the FN (Mostly regarding how the EU works, UE lobby influence, sovereignty, popular referendum, proportionnal voting system, international diplomacy, immigration and security), I have to say Marine Le Pen was abysmal at yesterday's debate, she was doing okay before the EU topic but after that she was pathetic. She couldn't even explain properly the 2 currencies system (Which was pulled out of a hat 3 days ago, poudre de perlinpinpin indeed lol), it was all vague and very amateurish. After that, it was only attacks straight out of kindergarden.
It's a shame she represents the "patriots" (of all origins).
I never voted FN and never will until they, or someone else, are very rigorous and professional in their arguments. Until then, good riddance.

It's K you'll have your shot with Marion Maréchal in 5 years.
 

Dascu

Member
I said before that I wouldn't post anymore in political threads on GAF, but as a French person and as someone who likes some talking points of the FN (Mostly regarding how the EU works, UE lobby influence, sovereignty, popular referendum, proportionnal voting system, international diplomacy, immigration and security), I have to say Marine Le Pen was abysmal at yesterday's debate, she was doing okay before the EU topic but after that she was pathetic. She couldn't even explain properly the 2 currencies system (Which was pulled out of a hat 3 days ago, poudre de perlinpinpin indeed lol), it was all vague and very amateurish. After that, it was only attacks straight out of kindergarden.
It's a shame she represents the "patriots" (of all origins).
I never voted FN and never will until they, or someone else, are very rigorous and professional in their arguments. Until then, good riddance.

As an EU lobbyist, this is rich. You think FN Europarliamentarians are better? Oh boy.
 
I'm glad Macron is proving you can beat populists, not just in elections, but in debates, without stooping to their level.

Le Pen's loss will be the final proof the populist wave in EU has crashed

every election is local,
anything can happen in other countries to stir up nationalism

the worst storm will have been avoided as France being the 2nd most important EU country.

The Western half of the EU will be okay, but some pockets in the East will be troublesome
 

azyless

Member
Is Maréchal a serious option for leading the FN though ? She'd need a bit more than her name and her good looks to take over the party. Marine herself was put there and trained by daddy but as we saw yesterday that might not even be enough to stay where she is.

Eugénie Bastié (whom I loathe) thinks it's time for her to step down
I don't think Marechal would come close to the scores MLP is pulling. She's even more unhinged than her aunt and she hides it even less.
 

Mael

Member
so Belgium basically

This is monumentally stupid.
We went from the IVth Republic to the Vth because the IVth churned so many governments we had majorities that didn't last more than 3 months.
A return to that wouldn't solve any issue anyone had with the Vth AND deliver actual power to political parties.
It was shit and no one wants to go back to that.
Just desync parliamentary elections and presidential one and you're already halfway there.

This makes them smart.

I never get it,
the biggest critics are always the most crooked assholes!
 

mo60

Member
So it looks like that offshore bank account story is blowing up in the alt right's face while macron has gone up slightly in the polls now.Sunday will be fun at this point and not to insane.
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
I'm glad Macron is proving you can beat populists, not just in elections, but in debates, without stooping to their level.

Le Pen's loss will be the final proof the populist wave in EU has crashed

both of these candidates are a populist reaction to the establishment.

you better hope Macron doesn't mess it up for the next person.
 

Ac30

Member
both of these candidates are a populist reaction to the establishment.

you better hope Macron doesn't mess it up for the next person.

5 years from now, we may all be swinging far left for all we know.

News organizations even in france are reporting not on the actual story but the complaint related to the story. News organizations also found out where the documents related tto the story came from.

Is defamation of this sort a criminal offense in France?
 

Jb

Member
I just read the this week's Charlie Hebdo and the editorial pretty much mirrors my view of the "ni-ni" crowd:

"On peut tout renvoyer à dos. Le procédé n'est pas nouveau et honteusement démagogique. Renvoyer dos à dos le communisme et le capitalisme, renvoyer dos à dos les islamistes et les caricaturistes, renvoyer à dos la peste et le choléra.

Ce non choix est en fait un choix. Celui de ne pas se mouiller et de laisser les autres faire. Oui, il y aura touours de bons couillons pour faire le sale boulot à la place des autres et glisser dans l'urne le bulletin du candidat qui déplaît pour en éviter un bien pire. Un peu comme dans le métro lorsque une femme se fait agresser sous les yeux des passants indifférents, qui se disent "il y a bien quelqu'un qui va s'en occuper, moi je n'ai pas le temps".

Dimanche, il faudra choisir si vous vous arrêtez pour faire un geste, ou si vous passez votre chemin".
 

Alx

Member
News organizations even in france are reporting not on the actual story but the complaint related to the story. News organizations also found out where the documents related tto the story came from.

Le Pen mentioning it during the debate was a big mistake, it makes the whole thing suspicious when most people would have heard it from her first and not from the internet. You're supposed to use rumors after they've spread, not before.

Not that I'm sad that it may backfire on MLP. Lock her up ! :p
 

mo60

Member
Le Pen mentioning it during the debate was a big mistake, it makes the whole thing suspicious when most people would have heard it from her first and not from the internet. You're supposed to use rumors after they've spread, not before.

Not that I'm sad that it may backfire on MLP. Lock her up ! :p

It's not goimg to hurt le pen much since she's not the one that will be prosecuted at this point. It will hurt the people who started and spread the story in the first place more.This story reeks entirely of desperation.
 

Alx

Member
Yes even if her phrasing was awkward, she can continue claiming it was "just a question", or even if it's proven that she knew about the rumour beforhand she can admit it without being to blame.
She probably won't face any legal consequence, but it will be remembered when some people in her party will blame her for having screwed the pooch.
 

Ac30

Member
Yes even if her phrasing was awkward, she can continue claiming it was "just a question", or even if it's proven that she knew about the rumour beforhand she can admit it without being to blame.
She probably won't face any legal consequence, but it will be remembered when some people in her party will blame her for having screwed the pooch.

If it means she leaves the FN, good.

Speaking of, do they have open promaries, or do you join to vote for the next leader or something? Seems like getting Marion elected would be good for the country...
 
Yes even if her phrasing was awkward, she can continue claiming it was "just a question", or even if it's proven that she knew about the rumour beforhand she can admit it without being to blame.
She probably won't face any legal consequence, but it will be remembered when some people in her party will blame her for having screwed the pooch.

Marion Maréchal reaction live:

3hl4h.gif

If it means she leaves the FN, good.

Speaking of, do they have open promaries, or do you join to vote for the next leader or something? Seems like getting Marion elected would be good for the country...

Isn't it a monarchy system? Ok, that was cheap.
 
The resulting investigation wasn't opened just on grounds on defamation, they're looking into "fausses nouvelles en vue de détourner les suffrages", so they're going for the electoral angle.

The smoking gun here is FN's gleeful amateurism. MLP overestimated her subtlety and overplayed it on live TV, while her dumbfuck companion doubled down this morning when he said on the radio "American sites are mentioning it, I expect this to gain traction over the day". It did, but definitely not in the way they expected.
 

Khaz

Member
If she affirmed it in a very clear way, I think this would be ground for defamation indeed, But given her very blurry 'hint' at this, it's probably not a criminal offense.

She did it like a mobster though. "Oh it would be a shame if someone would find out about Bahamas bank accounts. Now give me that protection money" There may be grounds for defamation.
 

Jb

Member
The resulting investigation wasn't opened just on grounds on defamation, they're looking into "fausses nouvelles en vue de détourner les suffrages", so they're going for the electoral angle.

The smoking gun here is FN's gleeful amateurism. MLP overestimated her subtlety and overplayed it on live TV, while her dumbfuck companion doubled down this morning when he said on the radio "American sites are mentioning it, I expect this to gain traction over the day". It did, but definitely not in the way they expected.

I just don't see how they could ever formally link the FN to a random post on 4chan. Although I guess the celebrity hack dude was eventually arrested so maybe tracking down the source of that post is doable.
 
She did it like a mobster though. "Oh it would be a shame if someone would find out about Bahamas bank accounts. Now give me that protection money" There may be grounds for defamation.

I am sure there are experts on this case right now, and I have very limited legal knowledge, I am just improvising (MLP style :D).
 
I just don't see how they could ever formally link the FN to a random post on 4chan. Although I guess the celebrity hack dude was eventually arrested so maybe tracking down the source of that post is doable.
The point is that the timing is super fishy and the most generous explanation is that somehow, someone told MLP right after it was posted on 4chan.

Even in that case, there's an example to be made if we want to clean up our public life tbh.
 

Eolz

Member
She doesn't risk much. Of course it'll be questioned why she talked about this rumor before the rumor even took off, but it's so vague and such an easy question/attack that she can avoid anything without proof for this.
Her aides that gave this rumor to her though, is another story.
 

mo60

Member
She doesn't risk much. Of course it'll be questioned why she talked about this rumor before the rumor even took off, but it's so vague and such an easy question/attack that she can avoid anything without proof for this.
Her aides that gave this rumor to her though, is another story.

Even though that one moment during the debate she mentioned the story won't be the only thing that ended up hurting her there will be a lot of finger pointing by people within the FN after sunday on who told le pen about this story in the first place.
 
This is monumentally stupid.
We went from the IVth Republic to the Vth because the IVth churned so many governments we had majorities that didn't last more than 3 months.
A return to that wouldn't solve any issue anyone had with the Vth AND deliver actual power to political parties.
It was shit and no one wants to go back to that.
There are plenty of countries with parliamentary systems that seem to do just fine, in fact they dominate the Democracy Index's list of "full democracies". I can't accept the idea that France is inherently incapable of handling it, I think if you'd actually start looking around the world to see how other countries avoided or dealt with similar issues you'd be able to come up with something more robust than the 4th republic.

Maybe the German model would be useful, where the parliament can't pass a no confidence motion unless they also have majority support for an alternative government to replace the current one.

Just desync parliamentary elections and presidential one and you're already halfway there.
But wasn't this a deliberate move to avoid the problems caused by cohabitation? It seems like just another step in post-WWII France's attempt at fixing its political problems by moving more and more towards winner takes all.
 

Mael

Member
There are plenty of countries with parliamentary systems that seem to do just fine, in fact they dominate the Democracy Index's list of "full democracies". I can't accept the idea that France is inherently incapable of handling it, I think if you'd actually start looking around the world to see how other countries avoided or dealt with similar issues you'd be able to come up with something more robust than the 4th republic.

Maybe the German model would be useful, where the parliament can't pass a no confidence motion unless they also have majority support for an alternative government to replace the current one.

There is no example of a parliamentary system working as designed in France.
The IInd was stillborn, the IIIrd is the most corrupt democracy you can find and the IVth didn't work at all. The way French politicians work and are educated as well as the history of political discourse and political parties in France all point toward such a system being quite frankly even worse than the current one.
France is not Germany especially because of the politicians, you cannot just take a template and apply it this way when France is not at all ruled in the same way.
There's no Land in France and the Regions are beholden to the central power in Paris, even the organisation of the administration does not lend well to a system similar to Germany. The gleeful juvenile way our politicians act also means that we need extremely tight rules to deal with their downright corrupt behavior.
That will not be fixed in any plan of a VIth republic

But wasn't this a deliberate move to avoid the problems caused by cohabitation? It seems like just another step in post-WWII France's attempt at fixing its political problems by moving more and more towards winner takes all.
Cohabitation is a side effect of how the Vth is working.
It didn't break the country the 2 times it happened.
There's no reason to sync the 2 elections together, it makes one of them redundant and denies any kind of debate on 1 of the elections.
Cohabitation isn't a problem, the president can still revoke the parliament if need be after all. We also need a way to revoke the president because right the president could kill someone on live tv they would still get to finish their term.
 
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