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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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JordanN

Banned
Ouch (yellow is Macron, blue is Le Pen)

%C3%89lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_de_2017_par_d%C3%A9partement_T2.svg

Slow and steady.

CmS4vrj.png
 

Coffinhal

Member
Reading a lot of english-speaking reactions on twitter, it's crazy how misinformed most of them were on the election. Maybe the foreign medias didn't do a good job covering it, because if you had followed the ultimate week there were no doubts Le Pen would lose.

Between her big fumbles on economy and the francs, her disastrous and laughable performance at the debate and Macron's solid performance, she exposed herself as no fit at all to take the presidency. Yet a lot of people were excpecting it to be close, are saying Macron will be the death of France...

Honestly she never had a chance at winning even in the worst case scenario which would have been a post-scandal Fillon managing to get with her in the secound round.
The main reason is that our electoral system is made of two rounds and that you need to make alliances and/or get support from other parties for the secound round in order to win. The FN can't do that : they're isolated and have a hard time moving other partie's electorates, while the other parties would rally citizens from all electorates with a majority from each big electorate.

Even in France we worry too much - and that's great because fascism is fascism and we need to acknowledge what leads some people, even the most fragile, to vote for her.
 

Kilrogg

paid requisite penance
I'm following up on this because I guess it's important to make this point : We are too depolitizing the whole EU issue because of national-populists who just to get out to implement a xenophobic capitalism within their borders. They don't support democracy so of course they're not pro-EU, they stand against any effort to peace, but we already accept them in EU (Orban) so here are the contradictions too).

"pro-EU" only means in his case that he supports and likes most of the treaties that implemented a shade of federalism with ordoliberalism economic framework (even if he isn't as harsh as a Merkel-Schauble, see his stance on the Greek crisis). You can be "pro-EU" and still want to change what is behind the EU (federalism or just cooperation of States, ordoliberalism or another approach...). There is more in the Europe issue than just being pro and against and we shouldn't restrict the debate too much because we can discuss, even with strong disagreements, the public policies and laws that rule the EU and our countries. It isn't some kind of wonderland.

I definitely agree. I just pointed that out by constrast to the Eurosceptics (namely Le Pen, Mélenchon and Asselineau). Leaving the EU would be disastrous all around, whereas a pro-EU stance would at least preserve a decent, if imperfect status quo, with a possibility for reform.
 
I'm really glad my department (Nord) voted for Macron, but disappointed to be surrounded by Le Pen voters and that the Macron support is on the low end of the spectrum compared with many other departments.
 
Reading a lot of english-speaking reactions on twitter, it's crazy how misinformed most of them were on the election. Maybe the foreign medias didn't do a good job covering it, because if you had followed the ultimate week there were no doubts Le Pen would lose.

Between her big fumbles on economy and the francs, her disastrous and laughable performance at the debate and Macron's solid performance, she exposed herself as no fit at all to take the presidency. Yet a lot of people were excpecting it to be close, are saying Macron will be the death of France...

The brexit vote and Trump winning convinced some people that there is this huge undetected mass of white nationalists that are always going to show up and swing elections. Those people refuse to see that there is a difference between a 2 and 20 point gap for whatever reason. Then Macron actually outperformed his poll numbers by a huge amount.
 

BigAl1992

Member
Yes, 66.06%

Jesus that's humilating for Le Pen. I know she did twice the amount her father did, but she was at 30% in the first round this time last year according to the polls. Now she's walking away with less then 34% at the final round. She lost a lot of momentum in the space of twelve months.
 

Kilrogg

paid requisite penance
1 in 3 voting for Le Pen is still too much. I'm hopeful for Macron though and I hope all the French will support him in improving the country.

We're hoping he's going to support us honestly. Help us help him, essentially.
 

Coffinhal

Member
I definitely agree. I just pointed that out by constrast to the Eurosceptics (namely Le Pen, Mélenchon and Asselineau). Leaving the EU would be disastrous all around, whereas a pro-EU stance would at least preserve a decent, if imperfect status quo, with a possibility for reform.

Yep I understood what you meant :)

I wouldn't put Le Pen, Mélenchon and Assselineau on the same level of europsceptiscim though (and you would surely agree on the nuances)

Asselineau is a 100% against the EU, his party is built around the idea of leaving it no matter the cost.

As I said Le Pen isn't even pro-democracy so she can't be pro-EU.

For the left it's more complicated, but even Mélenchon is pro-EU. He wants to change the policies and treaties so the very nature of the current Europe, or at least to "bend" the policies towards him. Hamon is pretty much on the same line but they have different stratégies (Mélenchon wants to oppose in public different powers whereas Hamon wants to change the institutions and let the democracy change the balance of ideologies). Mélenchon's bet is that a conservative Germany will have to accomodate - and reform the treaties etc - because they don't want France to leave the EU or even the euro. He considered leaving the euro and/or the EU if his negociation doesn't succeed, but his bet is that it will succeed and that the threat of leaving will force a conservative Germany to make reforms. In other words, he wants to reform the EU, even if his method is up to question, and he's no nationalist compared to the two others.

The brexit vote and Trump winning convinced some people that there is this huge undetected mass of white nationalists that are always going to show up and swing elections. Those people refuse to see that there is a difference between a 2 and 20 point gap for whatever reason. Then Macron actually outperformed his poll numbers by a huge amount.

Latest polls gave him on a great momentum (that carried on the last two days when there weren't any polls) at an average of 62,8%. That isn't huge considering they've seen the momentum he had

C_IBKN4XcAAPpn2.jpg:medium
 

mo60

Member
Jesus that's humilating for Le Pen. I know she did twice the amount her father did, but she was at 30% in the first round this time last year according to the polls. Now she's walking away with less then 34% at the final round. She lost a lot of momentum in the space of twelve months.

She actually did like 1.9 times better then her father.
 
Yeah, Le Pen had been polling as high as 30% in the first round last year. She barely cracked that.

Now I just need an internal FN civil war where Marion tries to wrestle control from her aunt.
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
Yeah, Le Pen had been polling as high as 30% in the first round last year. She barely cracked that.

Now I just need an internal FN civil war where Marion tries to wrestle control from her aunt.

maybe now they'll got the way of UKIP without the person people know leading them and just disappear into irrelevance.

I think it's clear nobody is going to win dragging that baggage around.
 
This point can not be made enough. Good job France.

n3wDUjE.png

More like Trump impossible without the shitty nonsense known as the Electoral College, a system demanded by fucking racist slave owners that exists for some reason today. Oh wait I know why because loads of those people are still fucking racists except they aren't allowed to have slaves anymore.
 

7Th

Member
Humanity lives to see another day; the great darkness hanging over our heads has been delayed a few years more.
 

Magni

Member
Hoping the FN gets similarly crushed during the législatives. Also hoping FI gets slaughtered alongside them so we can finally be rid of Mélenchon.

MLP getting to the second round was shameful enough, but Hamon and the PS getting trounced by the far-left was also pathetic. The country needs two strong centrist parties, we can't have an extreme in the second round again in 2022.

The center needs to hold.

Edit: my wife (Japanese, doesn't read French fluently yet) sent me a link to a Gorafi article stating Macron had selected Hollande as his prime minister lol. She now knows what the Gorafi is. But on that note, predictions? Where does Bayrou end up, if anywhere?
 

rickyson1

Member
Reading a lot of english-speaking reactions on twitter, it's crazy how misinformed most of them were on the election. Maybe the foreign medias didn't do a good job covering it, because if you had followed the ultimate week there were no doubts Le Pen would lose.

Between her big fumbles on economy and the francs, her disastrous and laughable performance at the debate and Macron's solid performance, she exposed herself as no fit at all to take the presidency. Yet a lot of people were excpecting it to be close, are saying Macron will be the death of France...

there's just a LOT of idiots out there that seriously thought that just because Hillary lost with a tenth the polling lead in a different country that somehow numbers didn't matter anymore

like....even from a betting standpoint Macron had hilariously good odds right up until the very end for someone that was so incredibly obviously going to win
 

Opto

Banned
still 1/3 of France's voters voted for Le Pen which is a frightening low bar we've all had ourselves adjust to
 

Bronx-Man

Banned
there's just a LOT of idiots out there that seriously thought that just because Hillary lost with a tenth the polling lead in a different country that somehow numbers didn't matter anymore

like....even from a betting standpoint Macron had hilariously good odds right up until the very end for someone that was so incredibly obviously going to win

I think it's more like how people across the internet (and a lot on GAF) were completely certain for months that Remain would win and then they got blindsided. Everyone was certain Hillary would win and they got blindsided.

Just bracing for a hat-trick I guess.
 

AlphaDump

Gold Member
Well done France, i am extremely proud of you guys for stepping up and making your country properly represented with your vote.


I just hope my country (US) can learn from what you all have demonstrated.

Again, well done.
 

rickyson1

Member
I think it's more like how people across the internet (and a lot on GAF) were completely certain for months that Remain would win and then they got blindsided. Everyone was certain Hillary would win and they got blindsided.

Just bracing for a hat-trick I guess.

sure but Macron literally had a consistent 20+ point lead in all the polls leading up to the election

neither of those other things were anything remotely close to that
 
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