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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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Gurgelhals
Member
lol, over in the UK the Daily Heil didn't even bother to mention the election on the front page:
For reference, this was their reaction two weeks ago when Le Pen made it to the second round:
Same with The Scum by the way. So much delicious salt.
For reference, this was their reaction two weeks ago when Le Pen made it to the second round:
Same with The Scum by the way. So much delicious salt.
hue hue hue
twinturbo2
butthurt Heat fan
Shut it down, we have a winner.
If France had an EC and only 1 round of voting like the US, then MLP would have won (based on the first round results).
Of course, the parties involved would probably have been drastically different had that been the system in place.
You can win the US PV vote by 80 million margin and still lose the EC. You only need to win 50.01% votes of each state to get all the EV votes.
I don't see the relevance of voting methods to land area.
Kill Your Masters
Member
But you have a primaries process. Wouldn't that be the equivalent of what France does?
The two establishment parties in France also had primaries (which were both two round affairs, rather than the dumpster fire that is the US primary process).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Republicans_(France)_presidential_primary,_2016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Socialist_Party_presidential_primary,_2017
SolidSnakex
Member
So, are there any other upcoming European elections where the far right are a potential threat? Or was this pretty much it for the time being?
Germany?
They're polling at <10%, they're not really a threat.
The LR is going nowhere especially on the legislative level. The socialist party is in danger of collapsing now.
Alx
Member
Red Arremer
Member
Italy, Belgium and Austria next year. Hungary is holding a parliamentary election next year as well, but there the far right are already in power. Those are the 4 I would be the most concerned about.
In most other countries (Denmark, Norway, Germany, etc.), the far right doesn't go higher than to ~15%, if it even exists.
SpaceDrake
Member
It would take an extraordinarily weird electoral map, or truly absurd differences between states (like various states breaking 90:10 for one candidate or the other) for a candidate to lose the popular vote 2:1 yet still win the EC.
More to the point, a candidate winning the EC like that would immediately trigger the greatest governmental crisis this country has seen since the 19th century. Hillary's "loss" has only barely been tolerated for the sake of stability of government (which, frankly, Trump is tearing up anyway) but even a somewhat larger gap between candidates, another few million votes and perhaps 5-6 percentage points separating them, would touch off a constitutional crisis and debate of historic proportions. A candidate being crushed by a margin of 30% yet still winning the EC would result in secession discussion in various state legislatures that very night.
The EC is stupid and horrifically antiquated and we should abolish it, but this is why it's been tolerated up to this point; generally, a dude who wins the PV will still win the EC. We say it's been otherwise "five times", but between 1888 and 2000 the two votes matched. A major PV win while still losing the EC would be very, very weird.
33.90% of the vote actually. She failed to even break 35% of the vote.That is how bad she did.
The Italian election could provide new trouble, although M5S is not far right.
There was never any danger by AfD. Heck, they barely got 5% in a recent state election.
Red Arremer
Member
34% still is a third of the country voting for a racist right wing nutter and Holocaust denier. I think that's what he considers scary.
I would consider FSM to be very much on the right all things considered. Obviously not as extreme as LN, but still. At the very least they have some very right wing points and are Eurosceptics.
Italy doesn't risk a far right government. Northern league is at 12-15% iirc.
The 5 star movement is populist but not really far right honestly. They're whatever they need to be , and also, without making alliances they're not gonna get in power.
The most likely scenario is still a large coalition of the center left and the right.
Blackpuppy
Member
With a quarter of the country abstaining. So that lowers the percentage even more.
Red Arremer
Member
I edited into another post of mine.
FSM is right for sure, even if not far, but its euroscepticism certainly is a concerning position.
I do hope that the Democrats are going to be strong enough to force them into a coalition.
Plus, Italy is one of the biggest powers in Europe and worldwide, so it should be an election to keep an eye on generally anyway.
As for the others: Belgium's Vlaams Belang has been wavering up and down very much. While they're below 10% currently, they could do well in the municipal election next year and the general election 2019.
Austria and Hungary are the only ones where there's a real risk of a right wing government forming, though at least in Austria, it would have to be a coalition.
Belgium next year is only on the local municipality and provincial level, so nothing really important countrywise or europewise ... And although the NVA is a rightwing party, they are not the same threat as the FN. They pose a threat towards immigration, are hardline on social security (as far as it can be a threat in a European welfare state) and want to dismantle Belgium. They do not want to leave Europe and their role in the government (because they are already in it) has made them more sensitive to the fiscal reality. I don't see the real extreme right party VB (Vlaams Belang) getting more than 10 % in Flanders, which means even less in Belgium as a whole.
Blackpuppy
Member
True, but you have to understand that it's not saying that 30% of the population are Holocaust denying racists. Many are really living in economically depressed areas and are voting out of desperation for change. Or there are people who pine for "the good old days" and see the EU and globalisation as a dillution of French culture.
According to the Ministry of the Interior, she got 22.38% of registered voters. It's still too high, but it's not like a third of all French people voted for her. When you add in minors and people who aren't registered, it's closer to a sixth, half that initial number. Once again, still too high!
SolidSnakex
Member
Thanks. So, are any of those candidates/parties on the same level as what we saw with Trump and Le Pen in terms of just overt racism. And in Trump's case, sexism and anti-science. At least in the US, Le Pen seemed to be the one far right candidate that really had the media worried. Especially with her intention to leave the EU and NATO.
Also, what about Sweden? I know the right in the US seemed to take interest in that country after Trump's idiotic "last night in Sweden" comment. With lots of the usual right wing bloggers pushing scare stories of mass rapes happening by immigrants there. Is there any far right concern there?
Yeah, she really didn't get 35% of the vote. To put it in perspective: 11 million people abstained, 10 million voted for Le Pen and 2 million voted blanco.
Still 10 million too high, but not as bad as it might seem.
Red Arremer
Member
It's a good indicator for how the general election the following year might go, though.
Fair enough. I'm not extremely familiar with Belgian politics, I just know that Vlaams Belang has been going up and down in popularity in the last 15 years. Do the polls show that they are going to get no more than 10% in Flanders?
Lovely Salsa
Banned
The far right is the biggest party in Denmark, 2nd biggest in sweden
Red Arremer
Member
Hungary's Viktor Orban is a pocket dictator, he's mostly kept in check by the EU, but there's no real risk for Hungary dropping out of the EU.
Austria's HC Strache is pretty much on a similar level as Le Pen and Trump. His party has attempted to lift the laws that ban Holocaust relativism, and it also has indicated a desire to hold a referendum in regards to a possible Auxit.
That said, both countries are small and not particularly significant globally.
I totally forgot Sweden is holding a general election next year as well. Their right wing party, the Sweden Democrats, are at around 12% in the current parliament, but have been polling to around 20% recently if I know correctly.
I thought the Social Democrats were the biggest party in Denmark? Also yeah, I misread the table (the 12% I saw was their initial standing before the 2015 election), the DPP is at ~20% as well. Apologies.
It doesn't make that much sense, if there was only 1 turn (and an EC, but I don't see why we would use an EC at all), people may have vote really differently, and the whole 10-20 candidates system wouldn't suit this kind of election...
And remember that ~10% that could vote aren't even registered.
Yes, it's a theoretical max with the current population of registered voters. The fact that it can happen is fucking stupid, and just demonstrates how the EC distorts the will of the voters to something it's not.
M5S is part of the EFDD group in the European parliament with AfD, UKIP and Sweden Democrats most notably. Although not all their policies or ideas would fall under the umbrella of far right, their international affiliations are pretty much there.
http://www.standaard.be/peiling
Latest polling in Flanders, so in terms of Belgium this is even less because there are no Belgium wide parties.
M5S also asked (after a vote between its costituents) to enter the ALDE party, the most liberal pro-euro party because most of their policy are "leftist" (UBI, green energy, etc...) and were refused by the ALDE costituency.
Red Arremer
Member
Yeah, M5S is a realllllly weird party that skirts between both left and right (without being centrist). That said, in regards to Europe and immigration they certainly are on the right side, and I think those 2 are among the most important topics in regards to this.
Thank you very much!
I guess voters had their say on "Frexit". The Fail really are a bunch of cunts.
Was there any form of early voting? Wonder if a proportion of votes came in prior to the debate.
It lacks data and nuance haha but I have the right map !
Curious if there's a reason why - approximately speaking - the Spanish border is more pro-Macron than the Mediterranean and the Italian border.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Thank, France. I really needed this.
Re: the Visagrad assholes.
Hungary and Poland are not getting out of the EU because despite all their posturing their leaders know fully well that they NEED the EU to remain prosper and they also understand that the alternative is getting bullied by Russia into a corner. They are playing a dangerous game, but even Orbán folds because he knows the stakes.
Re: the Visagrad assholes.
Hungary and Poland are not getting out of the EU because despite all their posturing their leaders know fully well that they NEED the EU to remain prosper and they also understand that the alternative is getting bullied by Russia into a corner. They are playing a dangerous game, but even Orbán folds because he knows the stakes.
Alx
Member
It has more to do with the Mediterranean sea than the Italian or Spanish border. The shore is both a traditional land of immigration from North Africa (Marseille especially is known for its strong arab community/heritage), and a place where rich and older people settle. The tensions there are more cultural, while in the north it's more about the economy.
So happy for France. Now that is a country i can take holidays to without fear of discrimination
I don't think thats accurate
I know at least Marseilles and some South East cities had Le-pen majority
Ouch (yellow is Macron, blue is Le Pen)
I don't think thats accurate
I know at least Marseilles and some South East cities had Le-pen majority
Marseilles went for Macron. That department was 57% for him.
UnluckyKate
Member
They part always been very far right.
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