Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Except Leave was leading the polls for months.
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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
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Except Leave was leading the polls for months.
We have already been through this.
Marcon had a 20% lead in all the polling.
TWENTY. PERCENT.
2% =/= 20%
htttpwwwyahoocom
Member
it's sort of weird talking about polls since they were off by around 12 points
My two personnal bets for the next Prime Minister : two woman, unknown to most people but that could fit the profile of someone with parliamentary experience, kind of leadership and renewal of the faces
I've seen the second one in public reunions, she's doing pretty great
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne-Marie_Idrac
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sylvie_Goulard
I remember betting on Macron back in 2014 (when he was unknown too) a few days before he was named Secretary of the Economy on a french video game forum (I recognized at least two french gaffers from back there) haha so let's hope I'm right this time too!
I got it from Le Parisien's twitter
I've seen the second one in public reunions, she's doing pretty great
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne-Marie_Idrac
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sylvie_Goulard
I remember betting on Macron back in 2014 (when he was unknown too) a few days before he was named Secretary of the Economy on a french video game forum (I recognized at least two french gaffers from back there) haha so let's hope I'm right this time too!
I got it from Le Parisien's twitter
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
They were off by about 4 points (Macron was predicted to take about 62% in the polls immediately before the election.)
Here's an aggregate trend-line:
It seems to me like you're counting Macron at 60% and double-counting the errors.
R_thanatos
Member
I still don't get how every citizen can't vote for your presidential elections , nor why some territories magically don't have the same voting rights as the others
Polls predicted a 23%-26% margin of victory for him on the last polling day. Technically the polls underestimated macron's share of the vote in the second round by about 4% but their understimated his margin of victory by like 8%.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Uh, yes, it's true that if instead of looking at the amount they missed the results, you double that number, the number seems higher.
edit: also thinking of a woman from the center/center-right. I'd seen Idrac's name get floated around before, but hadn't heard of Goulard. She looks great.
Another thing to look at is the trend line. MLP was dropping (and Macron rising) after the debate. Also curious if the leaks had the opposite effect of pushing people away from MLP (though it seems like it really just didn't matter).
They were off by about 4 points (Macron was predicted to take about 62% in the polls immediately before the election.)
Here's an aggregate trend-line:
It seems to me like you're counting Macron at 60% and double-counting the errors.
Another thing to look at is the trend line. MLP was dropping (and Macron rising) after the debate. Also curious if the leaks had the opposite effect of pushing people away from MLP (though it seems like it really just didn't matter).
Muppet of a Man
Member
Get fucked, fascist cunts.
You're not the first person I've seen bringing up Sylvie Goulard as the next potential PM. It actually wouldn't be bad. I've heard her in recent interviews and she was pretty good.
UtterlyPerplexed
Member
Probably Germany? AfD is languishing heavily in the polls though, so no one is expecting them to get anywhere far electorally.
I suppose plenty of people will bring up that the UK general election next month may as well be a nutjob contest. The Conservatives have essentially decided to cannibalise half of UKIP's platform, rendering them more or less redundant after the Brexit vote, and not to mention the fact that the current UKIP leader is an ambling plonker compared to Farage who was able to air charisma to his legion of equally toad-faced goons. While May and the Tories are still mainstream right instead of far right/alt-right, the histronics about alleged EU saboteurs just plotting to ruin Britain's noble dreams of sunlit uplands have been blaring out in full to the point that our PM comes across as an unstable lunatic rather than a pragmatist.
So tl;dr, UKIP is a shell of its former self and is very unlikely to make any significant gains if at all. But with how the Tories have been acting since the referendum, they may as well be the resident nutjobs who are on course to undeservedly reap an enormous electoral harvest next month.
Sorry for being a bit pessimistic on the eve of celebration, but it is concerning to see (1) that this is the lowest voter turnout since the 60's for a French election and most importantly (2) that there is such a high rise in voters willing to vote for a fascist
and these overt white supremacists aren't going away any time soon.
EDIT: see Stump's post below about the data
and these overt white supremacists aren't going away any time soon.
EDIT: see Stump's post below about the data
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Sorry for being a bit pessimistic on the eve of celebration, but it is concerning to see (1) that this is the lowest voter turnout since the 60's for a French election and most importantly (2) that there is such a high rise in voters willing to vote for a fascist
and these overt white supremacists aren't going away any time soon.
Not to take away from the broader point, but comparing first round results to second round results is a little weird, so the only two data points there are 2002 and 2017 (but yes, FN is doing far "better" since 2002)
You're completely right, FN obviously wasn't in 07 and 12, so the comparison data is fundamentally flawed. I guess the larger point is that there is an increasing willingness by the French populace to vote for FN (which isn't a groundbreaking point :lol)
The FN was supposed to win the first round with 30%, instead they barely squeaked by Fillon and Mélenchon. Then they were supposed to keep Macron below 60%, instead MLP set herself on fire in the debate.
Keep in mind that the législatives also feature a runoff (not quite the same as the presidential elections though - it's not top 2, but everyone who gets over 12.5% in the first round), so the Republican front should help keep them out of most seats, as they did last time.
The FN has power at the municipal and local level, and at the European level (since unfortunately no one takes those seriously), but not at the national level.
I'm hoping Macron will make the European elections more important to French voters, so that we can finally get rid of those jokers.
gutter_trash
Banned
other take away that people still forget is that Fillon torpedoed himself with his scandals.
Who cares if Le Pen got 35%
just be happy that Fillon isn't President either
be happy with Macron and take it
Who cares if Le Pen got 35%
just be happy that Fillon isn't President either
be happy with Macron and take it
toddhunter
Member
On the other hand, in relative terms the world is now far worse :|
So they didn't necessarily do all that much better.
gutter_trash
Banned
nah, we dodged two bullets.
1) dodged the Le Pen bullet
2) dodged the Fillon bullet
Escape Goat
Member
My two personnal bets for the next Prime Minister : two woman, unknown to most people but that could fit the profile of someone with parliamentary experience, kind of leadership and renewal of the faces
I've seen the second one in public reunions, she's doing pretty great
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne-Marie_Idrac
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sylvie_Goulard
I remember betting on Macron back in 2014 (when he was unknown too) a few days before he was named Secretary of the Economy on a french video game forum (I recognized at least two french gaffers from back there) haha so let's hope I'm right this time too!
I got it from Le Parisien's twitter
Here are the latest electoral numbers. Pretty impressive, huh? The purple is obviously us.
gutter_trash
Banned
you can't really blame Calais though,
if there is one place in France where we can give a pass for the way they voted, that would be Calais
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Sorry for being a bit pessimistic on the eve of celebration, but it is concerning to see (1) that this is the lowest voter turnout since the 60's for a French election and most importantly (2) that there is such a high rise in voters willing to vote for a fascist
and these overt white supremacists aren't going away any time soon.
EDIT: see Stump's post below about the data
Yeah FN is likely to try and push the old parties out to become the defacto opposition. Remains to be seen what will happen with the left.
The UK is doomed with Corbyn at the head of Labour, it will soon be a one-party state.
Tezzeractor
Member
Lol.
The Silver
Member
I guess France held on to its beer, good job guys.
Escape Goat
Member
Jesus. They drink wine in France.
gutter_trash
Banned
SporeCrawler
Member
i think this will change. people are slowly realizing that MEPs do have legislative power compared to pre-lissabon
Head of Vengarl
Banned
Just got home from a camping trip. Such a relief to hear France didn't fuck up like we did. Congrats France!
Red Arremer
Member
I got it from Le Parisien's twitter
Interesting, since in the first round, Le Pen was placed first in a lot more departments:
I guess her voter turnout stayed about the same while everyone else was split between all the other candidates at first and went Macron in the runoff.
Which actually mirrors the Austrian presidential election as well. In the first round, the right wing candidate seemed to completely dominate the map:
While in the runoff, the green candidate pulled ahead, and after it getting annulled he got even more districts in his favour:
It's pretty interesting.
Hehe...
Apple doesn't fall far from the tree. Must suck to have a family tradition of being fucking losers.
As an American, he ain't wrong.
michaelius
Banned
They had to live with this for years before government actually started doing something:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calais_Jungle
And that place got attention of media from whole Europe since they usually attacked tir drivers
Little Old Man
Member
Sorry for being a bit pessimistic on the eve of celebration, but it is concerning to see (1) that this is the lowest voter turnout since the 60's for a French election and most importantly (2) that there is such a high rise in voters willing to vote for a fascist
and these overt white supremacists aren't going away any time soon.
EDIT: see Stump's post below about the data
I was about to say that FN hasn't reached the second round in all those elections, so it's not a direct comparison.
Also, from a Guardian mini doc on the election, it seemed that pre vote Le Pen had managed to capture/gain the interest of a lot of disenfranchised left leaning voters who had a case of sour grapes after their candidate was knocked out in round one. That or they said they would abstain. Either way, a worrying line for voters to take in the face of such a candidate as Le Pen.
Alx
Member
North-east doesn't have immigration issues actually (except for Calais, but those are immigrants who are trying to leave France for UK).
It's only the poorer parts of the country because it lived on old industry (coal mining, steel production,...) that is either declining or already dead.
whyamihere
Banned
Sorry for being a bit pessimistic on the eve of celebration, but it is concerning to see (1) that this is the lowest voter turnout since the 60's for a French election and most importantly (2) that there is such a high rise in voters willing to vote for a fascist
and these overt white supremacists aren't going away any time soon.
EDIT: see Stump's post below about the data
This is true, but the French population in 2002 was 61.81 million people and 67 million today. By those standards, JMLP's 5.5 million 2nd place run in 2002 would be about 6 million today. So yes, she did better than her father, but also, France has more people.
Not as bad as Fillon voters, but much worse than Hamon voters.
So I don't live in Brittany any more, but my parents and a lot of friends do. The point about general dislike of FN I agree with. Ferrand as well, he's reasonably popular. Le Drian however, there has been some resentment from the local left, over when and how he dropped Hamon/PS to join Macron. Ferrand joined Macron right away, people respected that (although some of them grudgingly). Le Drian was much later in the game.
chromatic9
Member
It doesn't work comparing a tiny country like France to a country like the US which is the size of a continent.
Percentage wise Hillary got about 5% more. 62.9 million vs 65.8 million. It's essentially split given the amount of people, close to 130 million voters
Macron 20.4 million vs Le Pen 10.6 million
A US vote in comparison would be 85 million vs 45 million. No amount of EC would make the 45 million candidate win office. Lets face it, Trump Clinton was very close and he won the game set out before hand. Maybe change the rules next time but that would mean California skewing the results against so many states hence the EC.
So no France aren't lucky to not have a electoral collage (aimed at previous posters), wouldn't help Le Pen anyway, it was a landslide, not a close run thing like the US.
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