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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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JonnyDBrit
Member
Honestly, "Don't be as dumb as the English (and Welsh)" should be a rallying cry in Europe for the next few years.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
I'm going to pull this out from my bumhole and say that there may be some ideological crosspolination with the Lega Nord around the Italian border, whereas Spain has zero tolerance towards the kind of nationalism pushed by the FN. As far as ideology goes, there's no cultural proximity around the Pyrenees like there is across Northern Italy.
There's also a huge amount of Spanish-French trade that would be disrupted in the event of a Frexit situation and a significant amount of mixed families.
There's also a huge amount of Spanish-French trade that would be disrupted in the event of a Frexit situation and a significant amount of mixed families.
The South East of France has seen a ton of immigration from North Africa, and tends to go very pro FN in some regions.
It is actually suprising she didn't win a single Department in that area tbh (for which I am very glad).
The New York Times mentioned that Le Pen was strong in the Southeastern coastal towns including Marseilles
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0
SporeCrawler
Member
I hope UMP and PS realize that if macron fails the FN may win next time. They need to work with Macron after the inevitable loss of en marche in the parliamentary elections. Macron will probably have to introduce very unpopular measures too but blocking him will only make FN stronger I fear
My thoughts were more as to whether there were geographical reasons to it, which Alx mostly covered; it was just noticeably consistent along the Mediterranean coast.
Red Arremer
Member
The parts of France that went more for Le Pen also have the highest unemployment rates:
I believe this is more the correlation than any external cultural or political influence, though of course I'm not denying that possibility either.
Right wing populism always has been appealing to blue collar workers, the unemployed and the socially downtrodden in general. They're trying to capitalize on these groups by selling themselves to be fighting for the "little man", although of course that's just smoke screen.
MeatGrinder
Member
No, Social Democrats is largest in Denmark, the far right is the 2nd with aprox. 18-20% votes.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
That's probably the defining factor and one of the things that Macron needs to address right away.
The FN is relatively strong in the South and South-East, but big cities are still more liberal than the departments overall. I'm from Montpellier, the city is very clearly left, but as soon as you go to the smaller cities in its periphery and the even smaller villages further out, it starts to get pretty frontist.
Oh thanks for that.I was surprised at first considering I always felt that Marseilles was more open to immigrants
It also depends where in the cities. In Paris, the 16th and the 19th arrondissements might as well be on two different planets. The Guardian (iirc?) had an article on two different neighborhoods of Marseilles, one that went MLP and the other JLM in the first round. They're definitely not homogenous.
Palette Swap
Member
Even unemployment can't really explain everything.
If you take these easternmost parts that border Germany, unemployment is relatively low and yet FN scores high. Historically, FN has been strong there, because to put it bluntly, they're more xenophobic than other regions. To the point where they'd vote against their interests, as trade with Germany is pretty central to their economy.
If you take these easternmost parts that border Germany, unemployment is relatively low and yet FN scores high. Historically, FN has been strong there, because to put it bluntly, they're more xenophobic than other regions. To the point where they'd vote against their interests, as trade with Germany is pretty central to their economy.
Worthwhile putting it out there that in the first round she grew her vote by roughly a million from where she was in 2012. Likewise her father consistently drew between 4 and 5 million and reached the second round in 2002, gaining around 20% of the vote at that time. I'd have been more worried if she'd gained a lot more from 2012 given the amount of attacks that France has been subjected to.
I know there's a desire to see this as a sign of the resurgence of the far right but I'm not sure it really materialised in France this year. There's still plenty of reason to be vigilant but I'd struggle to see this with the same doom and gloom that some others have,
People also need to keep in mind that the youth is voting far right much more than before because they're the category that tend to be hit the hardest by unemployement in europe.
It's easy to be altruist when you have things. Harder when you're scraping by. Politicians need to fix this broken economy or the far right will continue to make gains until a real fascist come into power. Donald Trump may be limited by the checks right now, but another far right president in ten years could not be.
Also i hate how social justice has been taken hostage by economic corporativism. Bartering the rights of the poor for the rights of minorities is not a choice anyone should make. I hate how our traditionally leftist party made gay marriage legal and at the same time sent worker's rights down the shitter as well as proposing policies that rewarded the rich (removing tax on properties).
It's easy to be altruist when you have things. Harder when you're scraping by. Politicians need to fix this broken economy or the far right will continue to make gains until a real fascist come into power. Donald Trump may be limited by the checks right now, but another far right president in ten years could not be.
Also i hate how social justice has been taken hostage by economic corporativism. Bartering the rights of the poor for the rights of minorities is not a choice anyone should make. I hate how our traditionally leftist party made gay marriage legal and at the same time sent worker's rights down the shitter as well as proposing policies that rewarded the rich (removing tax on properties).
Lovely Salsa
Banned
Eh, corrected then
Interesting to see that sweden will have Denmark beat for the first time. SD is expected to get around 22%
I wonder how high they can go. I think its the same in Germanys afd
Once Afd gets accepted by the general public, they'll probably also get over 20% in the future
AFD is currently imploding and taken over by nazis. Even at their high point during the refugee crisis they didn't get higher than 15% and are currently down to 8-9%.
They'll struggle to get into the bundestag if they move even harder to the right (Like they want to with Petry out).
Did your tag get longer?
According to Ipsos / Harris
Hamon 2% / 4%
Mélenchon 7% / 11%
That's still too much but that wasn't the 17 to 22% that polls registered !
Fillon 20% / 21%
Dupont 30% / 39%
The porosity is between the right-wing electorate and the far-right electorates, it went the other way (from Le Pen to Sarkozy) in 2007, 2012 (before the first round/after the second round, and after the secound respectively) and that's normal because a majority of Le Pen's voters define themselves as right-wingers
About the youth vote in France :
The youth has the highest rate of abstention among the voters
At the first round it was the left (Mélenchon) who got the best % of people who voted
It's especially the youth who doesn't have high education (big diploma) and doesn't live in big cities (idéopoles) that votes for the far-right
harriet the spy
Member
The parts bordering germany are historically catholic. I am not sure if they are more differentially xenophobic.
Alx
Member
All of France is historically catholic.
As a matter of fact the most vehement catholics were in Vendée (near Brittany), who even resisted the Revolution to protect the Monarchy. And there are still traces of that in the current local culture.
The main difference regarding religion in the areas close to Germany is that since they were attached to Prussia between 1871 and 1914, they still kept some specific laws that allow for less separation between church and state. But I honestly don't think it has any influence on politics.
All of France is historically catholic.
As a matter of fact the most vehement catholics were in Vendée (near Brittany), who even resisted the Revolution to protect the Monarchy. And there are still traces of that in the current local culture.
The main difference regarding religion in the areas close to Germany is that since they were attached to Prussia between 1871 and 1914, they still kept some specific laws that allow for less separation between church and state. But I honestly don't think it has any influence on politics.
We have two great geographers that worked on that topic recently. Check out the "catholiscisme zombie" part.
Man, I sat at home yesterday evening with my dad and watched the numbers roll in. While I'm still a bit sore that one of three valid votes went to Le Pen, this is nonetheless a huge relief. Thank Jove we avoided this particular horrorshow. Congrats to the French for their youngster of a president.
No more fretting about a last minute upset or slip-up... at least for a while.
I mean, if Macron fails somehow, the backlash will be terrifying. So hooray for the next thing to worry about. Pessimists are busy people.
No more fretting about a last minute upset or slip-up... at least for a while.
I mean, if Macron fails somehow, the backlash will be terrifying. So hooray for the next thing to worry about. Pessimists are busy people.
Palette Swap
Member
"How Marine became Le Pen again" is a pretty good article by Le Monde: http://www.lemonde.fr/election-pres.../et-marine-devint-le-pen_5124060_4854003.html
(Disclaimer: I spent years in Alsace 15 years ago and saw and heard some really shameful stuff, so my judgment is tainted here)
You could make a similar argument about nearby Moselle, except unemployment seems much higher there.
My "historically" was really on a three-four decades scale, as opposed to the last 15 years. I don't have any kind of long view on this, but in living memory, FN has always been high in Haut Rhin and Bas Rhin.
(Disclaimer: I spent years in Alsace 15 years ago and saw and heard some really shameful stuff, so my judgment is tainted here)
You could make a similar argument about nearby Moselle, except unemployment seems much higher there.
Interesting analysis in the FT I saw today that, as in Brexit and the US, the strongest indicator of how people voted was education. Income did correlate, but basically disappears after controlling for education, I.e. People don't vote for Macron because they're rich, but people who vote for Macron are more likely to be rich because his support base leans more towards the highly educated.
Especially agree with the last part, even the near-giddy responses here are worrying, because it will only fuel far right sentiment in the future if we keep electing the Macrons of the world.
Fair enough. I only looked at German news for an evaluation of M5S. They are troubling even if we assume they are not traditionally far right.
On a federal level? Not happening. Even half is a stretch.
Well, not necessarily. As Nonna Mayer explained on Mediapart yesterday, while it's true that the biggest chunk of the FN electorate was found in the younger population in 1995, it wasn't the case in 2002: most FN voters were older, because the main theme of the campaign was national security.
And in 2017, most FN voters were apparently in the 25/50 year-old age range. It's a pretty interesting video. She also mentions electoral repartition between men and women as a valid measure: https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/france/070517/mediapartlive-quel-avenir-pour-le-fn
Agent Gibbs
Member
Congratulations to the French voters for not giving into false propaganda of the right and voting for lunacy, like too many people in the UK did!
http://www.politico.eu/article/national-front-change-name-after-marine-le-pen-defeat/
What name will it change to then?
What name will it change to then?
Broken Joystick
At least you can talk. Who are you?
So much this. The worse aspect of the Americanization of our society. And just like America we are trapped.
"Totally not Front National"
Les patriotes ? La droite décomplexée ? Les schlagueurs ?
moffattron9000
Member
Fortunately, early polling suggests that En Marche is heading towards a plurality, if not, a majority in the National Assembly. There should be the numbers for Macron to govern effectively, and should be able to rely on the PS and LR when it's needed.
I heard "Les patriotes" too
No it happened before
After the 2002 presidential election the RPR of Jacques Chirac, who won the election, turned into the UMP in order to show that he kind of understood the lesson of the far-right being at the second round
After the 2007 presidential election, François Bayrou created the MoDem in order to turn his third place at the election into something bigger
So it would make sense but yesterday they said "in the coming weeks or months" so it may not be before the législatives
En Marche! are likely to change their name too
He needs 289 to have a strict majority and the best case scenario in that poll is 286.
I wouldn't trust législatives polls this early though, even close to the election it's still a mess given how our electoral system works
No it happened before
After the 2002 presidential election the RPR of Jacques Chirac, who won the election, turned into the UMP in order to show that he kind of understood the lesson of the far-right being at the second round
After the 2007 presidential election, François Bayrou created the MoDem in order to turn his third place at the election into something bigger
So it would make sense but yesterday they said "in the coming weeks or months" so it may not be before the législatives
En Marche! are likely to change their name too
He needs 289 to have a strict majority and the best case scenario in that poll is 286.
I wouldn't trust législatives polls this early though, even close to the election it's still a mess given how our electoral system works
With how many times they've been touting the "patriotes" word, I guess it will be in their name.
Btw, funny how everybody is allowed to talk about the "Macron Leaks" now, but nobody bothers/cares.
Patriotic Front when!
I'd sure prefer a PS coalition over an LR one :/
fabricated backlash
Member
That's not really that far fetched. Although it would be quite challenging to draw a conclusive correlation.
Palette Swap
Member
They're not going to change their name over the next few weeks, they say they will be rethinking their party and their platform by the end of the year.
That being said, Macron's party is changing its name for the parliamentary elections from "En Marche!" to "La République en marche". I guess the rationale is that the party (they insist on calling it a movement) was first and foremost designed to elect a president, and the name change reflects the new stakes. That's not unheard of.
Cucurbitacée
Member
I don't know if that has been already been posted, but a friend of mine just sent me this salt mine : https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...insult-emmanuel-macron-after-presidential-win, délicieux !
Palette Swap
Member
My favorite moment of Brexiter salt is this one (taken from this tweet):Cucurbitacée;236085616 said:
It all culminates here.
He could also rely on a changing majority depending on the policy getting pushed through.
Alx
Member
Lol. He should try it again when he'll face the cost of a hard Brexit. "My 13 yo voted at the referendum, do you do refunds ?"
BWHAHAHAH THIS IS GOOOOD
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