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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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Big Nikus

Member
Japan, which is pretty fucked up, but at least I will be far from French politics in mind and body.

You're lucky. I'll have to live under president Macron.
I was pretty invested in politics these past two years but I think I'm gonna shut everything off from now on. I'm disgusted.
 

Boke1879

Member
I hope those in France may have learned from the election in the US. If you sit this election out and don't vote, thinking that Macron has an easy path to victory, then you are in fact giving Le Pen a foreseeable path to victory.

Yup. Just take a big long look at our dumbasses over here.
 
2002 was a fluke because of a split in the left. Jean-Marie Le Pen had 16.86% of the vote whilst the Socialists had 16.18% of the vote. The real rise in FN is recent, and is due to a number of reasons, namely growing dissatisfaction in the traditional parties, refugee crisis, terrorism, economic downturn etc.

And FN has become slightly more mainstream. Ditching Jean-Marie and the anti-Semitism/holocaust denial had an effect.

Yep FN grew in popularity over time because it began "softening" its public image, even though a lot of its more heinous views still exist in the background. FN used to be a fringe party, a party of skin heads, now it's much more "soft" for the general public as well.

Which is really bad as it displays the trend of a lot of the far-right/"alt-right" globally of changing their image to be more appealing but hiding their true intentions.

Like that one ex-Nazi said on Vox, the Nazis/far-right are "softening" their image, they're coming in forms of nice haircuts and suits, not the skin heads their public image used to be and people are falling for it.
 

Sinsem

Member
I see everyone already blaming abstentionists for the next round.
If you want votes, convince people to vote for you, not against someone else, people are tired of the "but she's worst" argument.
Even if, yes, she's worst.
 

Tamanator

Member
And this year wasn't split with Fillon and to some extend Macron on the right (especially with Fillon's affairs), and Mélanchon / Hamon on the left?

Not really. Macron took support from both LR and the Socialists, though I reckon more so from the Socialists, where his primary base derived from. No doubt the scandal ensured that he came first, since Fillon's campaign has virtually been dead since that broke.

Melanchon was a surprise no poll predicted until recently. If you look at the polling trends, it appeared that there were only three viable candidates, Le Pen, Macron and Fillon. Even before Melanchon's surge Hamon was floundering. Hollande killed any hope for a Socialist candidate winning.

The primary difference is that Le Pen this time was always predicted to reach the second round, at least for almost a year now. She has a distinct supporter base that is much larger and more effective than the rag-tag FN in 2002 when it was run by Jean-Marie.
 
No worries man, sorry if I sounded harsh. I wasn't chastising you, just making a general comment.

As for your second comment: I doubt any other issues wouldn't make more MLP voters next time. Plus I think it's foolish to think 5 years ahead of time. It was hard enough to predict this election, let alone the next one.

;)

I think there are hards tendencies who explain the progressive rise of the far-right. A socialist refundation around Melenchon and Hamon would have stopped those tendencies..
 
I hope those in France may have learned from the election in the US. If you sit this election out and don't vote, thinking that Macron has an easy path to victory, then you are in fact giving Le Pen a foreseeable path to victory.

Exactly. I'd like to live in a world where I can act all smug and say that Macron doesn't represent my ideals but to hell with it, he'll get my vote instead of the racist fuck campaigning against him. It's 2017, let's not get complacent.
 
Depends. Do you like Macron ? 'cause he's the next president.

I wouldn't say it with that much certainty yet, but if Austria can pull it off, then France hopefully can too.
But as someone else rightly said: Never underestimate the capability of the population to be conned.
 

Ac30

Member
I see everyone already blaming abstentionists for the next round.
If you want votes, convince people to vote for you, not against someone else, people are tired of the "but she's worst" argument.
Even if, yes, she's worst.

Eh, people are mostly dogpiling old :p

My comment was mainly 'cause I was getting flashbacks to last year, but I fully expect y'all not to repeat that mistake.
 

Jokab

Member
I see everyone already blaming abstentionists for the next round.
If you want votes, convince people to vote for you, not against someone else, people are tired of the "but she's worst" argument.
Even if, yes, she's worst.

If you don't vote, you vote Le Pen. It's that simple.
 

Koren

Member
Is it good or bad?
Good for 45% of people, bad for the remaining 55%?

...do any of them?
Not sure.

Though I don't remember any candidate saying he doesn't understand what he reads in his speech when talking about its projects for France in a meeting, so that's a first. ^_^

(bonus point for honesty, though, the others don't SAY it, but I'm pretty sure they sometimes don't UNDERSTAND it either)
 

GAMEPROFF

Banned
Reading r/france and seeing people say they're abstaining because Melenchon lost - ugh.

Also I just realized, Fillon won't get immunity :D

But wouldnt these people vote for Le Pen? I am not a big expert on french politics, but Melechon gave me the feeling that voting for him would be first and foremost voting against the EU while dont want to get in bed with the far right?
 

Magni

Member

azyless

Member
But wouldnt these people vote for Le Pen? I am not a big expert on french politics, but Melechon gave me the feeling that voting for him would be first and foremost voting against the EU while dont want to get in bed with the far right?
No. The anti-EU stuff is overblown.
 

Tamanator

Member
Yep FN grew in popularity over time because it began "softening" its public image, even though a lot of its more heinous views still exist in the background. FN used to be a fringe party, a party of skin heads, now it's much more "soft" for the general public as well.

Which is really bad as it displays the trend of a lot of the far-right/"alt-right" globally of changing their image to be more appealing but hiding their true intentions.

Like that one ex-Nazi said on Vox, the Nazis/far-right are "softening" their image, they're coming in forms of nice haircuts and suits, not the skin heads their public image used to be and people are falling for it.

Exactly, and unfortunately they are much more effective in harnessing the popular discontent and latent nationalist sentiment than the centre-right traditionally were. So we're seeing far-right supersede the traditional right-wing 'conservatives'. Pretty much what happened during the Weimar Republic...
 
Is Canada/Germany the only place right now that doesn't have some sort of far right imbecile leading their country?

Merkel's party, the CDU, is center-right, actually. It just also so happens that Merkel herself is a very moderate CDU member.

Also, plenty of countries where there's no right winger at the helm, but right wing movements are everywhere in Western societies.
 

Tyaren

Member
So it's Le Pen-Macron in two weeks. As I expectd it would be. Even though Le Pen is in the final vote I want to think that about 20% of all votes is just a small chunk. It's just 20% of France, that want to give a far right populist and racist, that's also sponsored by Putin, their vote. It could be worse.
 

Ac30

Member
But wouldnt these people vote for Le Pen? I am not a big expert on french politics, but Melechon gave me the feeling that voting for him would be first and foremost voting against the EU while dont want to get in bed with the far right?

They voted for his economic policies over all else probably, I read quite a few that were weary of his EU/NATO stance actually.

Hey, Belgium's fine !
For the next two years

Vlaams Belang 2019!

My parents may actually vote for them because apparently Bart De Wever is now too mainstream.
 
It's second best case scenario; Macron has the best chance of beating Le Pen but it would've been even better if Le Pen had just been thrown out in the first round.

Yes, but what if the Russians have hacked the e-mail account of someone related to Macron and release it?
 

BiggNife

Member
Also, yeah: if you live in France and Le Pen disgusts you, then please, PLEASE vote for Macron. Don't make the same mistake people in the US did thinking Clinton was a shoo in. Take this shit seriously. I get that he's not everyone's favorite candidate (it sounds like he has a lot of the same problems Clinton did tbh) but for Pete's sake, a loaf of bread would be better than Le Pen.
 

Magni

Member
No. The anti-EU stuff is overblown.

Mélenchon is, if not a europhobe, then at the very least a euroskeptic. That said, anecdotally, the majority of my friends who voted for Mélenchon did so in spite of, not because of, his European views.
 
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